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Old 08-10-2019, 02:44 PM
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Smile FLIGHT SCHEDULE: FRIDAY: Part 5 of 5 w/AD Neil Sullivan

Starting Monday we'll be publishing a five-part series called "Flight Schedule" that will run through the remainder of the week, examining in granular detail the dynamics of UD men's basketball scheduling. Special thanks to VP/Director of Athletics Neil Sullivan for his open and candid conversations to better explain the processes, pitfalls, and challenges of finding opponents in a increasingly-changing landscape.

It is my hope that some of your questions will be answered and the insights will provide greater clarity on the scheduling Godzilla the Flyers try to tame. We'll discuss the past, present, future, theory, misconceptions, and then take a microscopic look at this year's schedule and explain in specificity why some things did or did not occur.










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Old 08-10-2019, 03:20 PM
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Thank you Chris, should be interesting
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Old 08-10-2019, 05:39 PM
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Chris, looking forward to it. Thank you for doing something that you, quite frankly, absolutely do not have to do.
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Old 08-10-2019, 09:24 PM
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Gotta set the VCR

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Old 08-11-2019, 06:20 PM
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I have pinned this topic so you won't overlook it. Please keep all conversations pertaining to this series in this thread so I can answer any remaining questions that might be at play and keep the discussion centered. I will post links to the articles in the top in the original post when they become available.
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Old 08-12-2019, 05:01 AM
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Part 1 is now online. Click banner in original post.
Relax. Four more parts forthcoming.
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Old 08-12-2019, 09:33 PM
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From Part 1-
"A power conference team can lose 12 of 13 games in the middle of the season and still be in the at-large discussion because of the strength of their league".

As in Indiana last year? The Hoosiers even being considered for an at-large last year was a crime. They even got a #1 seed in the NIT and played all their tournament games at home before they lost to Wichita State.
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Old 08-13-2019, 06:27 AM
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Part 2 is now online.
Click banner in original post.
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Old 08-13-2019, 10:51 AM
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Chris, thanks for doing this but so far all I’ve seen is excuses to why the schedule is what it is. I hope the next three parts get into how the admin will fix it.
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Old 08-13-2019, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
Chris, thanks for doing this but so far all I’ve seen is excuses to why the schedule is what it is. I hope the next three parts get into how the admin will fix it.
Don’t know if excuses is the term I would use. More like reality setting in. There are extremely few opportunities as clearly stated in the piece. Frankly I think UD has done a masterful job getting as much out of their non-con as they have. Last season if we beat Miss st at home and take another in the Bahamas tourney we are an at large selection. You can’t ask for more than that in the scheduling dept. it’s a matter of winning the right games.
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Old 08-13-2019, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Don’t know if excuses is the term I would use. More like reality setting in. There are extremely few opportunities as clearly stated in the piece. Frankly I think UD has done a masterful job getting as much out of their non-con as they have. Last season if we beat Miss st at home and take another in the Bahamas tourney we are an at large selection. You can’t ask for more than that in the scheduling dept. it’s a matter of winning the right games.
I agree. I wasn’t sure what word to use to describe parts 1-2.

Obviously I don’t make many home games and want to know why we don’t go on the road for Q1 games more often. Many want more bang for their buck but that doesn’t apply to me.
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Old 08-14-2019, 06:04 AM
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Part 3 is now published. We get deeper into the weeds on coalitions, in-state rivalries, quads, the Virginia paradox, and why UD passes on certain teams for others in the non-con schedule.
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Old 08-14-2019, 10:57 AM
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I understand how difficult the scheduling is and better understand now all the roadblocks. But I also agree that there are a lot of excuses being heard. If there really was no way to do any better than the current season's out of conference offerings, then at what point do we see attendance . . . and corresponding ticket prices . . drop? I live out of state and return for a few games each season. . .I'm waiting to make my travel plans until the full schedule comes out. So far, there aren't any out of conference games worth the airline ticket price . . .

I love you, Flyers, and applaud the University's efforts, but market dynamics at some point are going to set in . . .
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by GoFlyer View Post
I understand how difficult the scheduling is and better understand now all the roadblocks. But I also agree that there are a lot of excuses being heard. If there really was no way to do any better than the current season's out of conference offerings, then at what point do we see attendance . . . and corresponding ticket prices . . drop? I live out of state and return for a few games each season. . .I'm waiting to make my travel plans until the full schedule comes out. So far, there aren't any out of conference games worth the airline ticket price . . .

I love you, Flyers, and applaud the University's efforts, but market dynamics at some point are going to set in . . .
I highly doubt it. If the Flyers continue to put an entertaining product on the floor people will fill the seats. Remember, this is Dayton basketball. We fill the arena to watch schools no one has heard of in the first four.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:06 AM
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You may be right, and I hope so. . . but at some point it gets a bit old to rest on the love of the fans . . . .AG has done a yeoman's job of making us competitive . . .or at least I THINK we are competitive . . Maui, not the home games, will show us.

AG, the players, and the fans deserve more than what we are seeing at home this year. Sorry but all the excuses in the world won't change my opinion.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by GoFlyer View Post
You may be right, and I hope so. . . but at some point it gets a bit old to rest on the love of the fans . . . .AG has done a yeoman's job of making us competitive . . .or at least I THINK we are competitive . . Maui, not the home games, will show us.

AG, the players, and the fans deserve more than what we are seeing at home this year. Sorry but all the excuses in the world won't change my opinion.
No doubt we would love to have Kansas, Michigan or some other top 50 P5 school come to the arena, but these past 3 segments point out that it’s not reality. I remember Jamie Dixon, coach of Pitt at the time, stating after we curb stomped his 5th ranked team, that he would never bring his team back to play at UD. This unfortunately is the mindset of most P5 schools. Add to the fact that they each average 1 away non con game per season and you can see why it’s nearly impossible.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:15 AM
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I’m as disappointed as anyone with a non-con schedule that is devoid of marquee games. That said, what some call excuses are someone else’s facts. You can argue all you want that the sun sets in the east, but that doesn’t make it so. Chris has done a great job here of laying out the obstacles Neil faces in building a schedule. It doesn’t appear there is ANY lack of effort on his part to create the best possible path to an NCAA ticket.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:22 AM
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As always, my complaint is with the number of buy games.

I would like to see us move on to the next best option if the p5 are not willing opponents. And in today's part 3, Neil talks about being willing to drop a home game, but it is just talk, it has never happened, not even once.

Games like Colorado and SMC are great, my complaint is with back-filling the schedule with so many buy games.

With the A10 getting weaker, incredibly, we played more buy games this year than last year, stop playing so many buy games and replace those buy games with home and homes against good non-p5 teams.

And do not tell me that there are no willing non-p5 teams, just look at the schedules of teams like Rhode Island and Nevada.

I gave a list of around 30 or 40 non-p5 teams, I asked Chris several times if we called all those teams, I never got an answer.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
I’m as disappointed as anyone with a non-con schedule that is devoid of marquee games. That said, what some call excuses are someone else’s facts. You can argue all you want that the sun sets in the east, but that doesn’t make it so. Chris has done a great job here of laying out the obstacles Neil faces in building a schedule. It doesn’t appear there is ANY lack of effort on his part to create the best possible path to an NCAA ticket.
Agree. Some here may be conflating HOME non con schedule with an overall non con that puts UD in the best possible position for a tourney bid. With the Maui tourney, Colorado and St Mary’s we have a very good start on solid resume, if we win most of these games.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
I highly doubt it. If the Flyers continue to put an entertaining product on the floor people will fill the seats. Remember, this is Dayton basketball. We fill the arena to watch schools no one has heard of in the first four.

While be on the court opposing team product for home games is an issue, I would also argue attendance at sporting events is going down across the board. Even large SEC schools can’t fill their stadiums for conference games. Co, if Dayton’s attendance does drop, I would like to see how much Has to do with attendance across-the-board going down versus the actual opponent. As part of the Gabbett games, Ohio state is bringing in Villa nova. This should be an automatic sell out. I bet there are still empty seats. As entertainment options increase digitally, people are more apt to go to those.
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Old 08-14-2019, 11:45 AM
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I am not expecting Kansas or Michigan State to show up at the arena for a non conference match up. But I would expect something better than we are seeing . . including matchups with teams that are in the same boat as us
in non p5 leagues.
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Old 08-14-2019, 04:10 PM
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If you want something off the wall, how about adjusting the A10 scheduling to better favor top teams. Losses to lower ranked teams hurts big time and makes the resume awful. So, don’t allow VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island to play road games at LaSalle, Fordham, etc....

Each year, that bad loss to a low ranked A10 team hurts. There odds go down when you play at home. Makes your win loss in conference look better which helps the smell test for those who only look at number of wins.

Bottom teams only play road games against the top 4 teams until they improve their competitiveness. Might also encourage them to get their act together.

Really off the wall, but if you want the A10 to get more teams in the tournament, stack the schedule for the top.
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Old 08-14-2019, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
If you want something off the wall, how about adjusting the A10 scheduling to better favor top teams. Losses to lower ranked teams hurts big time and makes the resume awful. So, don’t allow VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island to play road games at LaSalle, Fordham, etc....

Each year, that bad loss to a low ranked A10 team hurts. There odds go down when you play at home. Makes your win loss in conference look better which helps the smell test for those who only look at number of wins.

Bottom teams only play road games against the top 4 teams until they improve their competitiveness. Might also encourage them to get their act together.

Really off the wall, but if you want the A10 to get more teams in the tournament, stack the schedule for the top.
And those lower tier teams will be saying how do we improve if you are taking away our home games and the games that have butts in the most seats. I think a lot of folks are forgetting Dayton has been pretty mediocre over the last 20 years with a few bright spots... lots of middle of the pack showings.

The only way something like this makes sense to do is have divisions that teams can move in or out of based on performance criteria (not facilities), or other scheduling maneuvers like having the top teams finish the season against each other to minimize exposure to the dregs of the conference. Also, don't loose to Fordham... ever.
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Old 08-15-2019, 04:15 AM
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Part 4 is now published. Click the banner on the original post for the link. Here we examine in greater detail specific opponents Dayton courted, A10 responsibility, and how completely unrelated things can mess up a good plan.
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Old 08-15-2019, 07:49 AM
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I wondered how much personal relationships played into scheduling. Based on Part 4 it appears it might be more important than ever going forward. Neil may find his job will require more travel going forward to events, conferences, and fundraising golf tournaments of other programs, etc to cultivate relationships he can tap into when scheduling.
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by BeckysTXA View Post
I wondered how much personal relationships played into scheduling. Based on Part 4 it appears it might be more important than ever going forward. Neil may find his job will require more travel going forward to events, conferences, and fundraising golf tournaments of other programs, etc to cultivate relationships he can tap into when scheduling.
This is what I was going to come post. You can be the smartest guy in the room but you have to know how to connect with people. Neil either needs to hire someone with these connections or find a firm who can assist. It seems he just doesn’t have the right connections.
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Old 08-15-2019, 10:56 AM
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Great Job on these articles.

Small correction, Valpo is in the MVC now and has been since WSU left for the American.

They are going through a roster changeover (5-6 guys left the program) so missing them this year might have been a blessing.
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Old 08-15-2019, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
This is what I was going to come post. You can be the smartest guy in the room but you have to know how to connect with people. Neil either needs to hire someone with these connections or find a firm who can assist. It seems he just doesn’t have the right connections.
Did you read the part that states he interfaces as much as anyone in the country?
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Old 08-15-2019, 11:35 AM
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[QUOTE=TA111;590732]
Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
This is what I was going to come post. You can be the smartest guy in the room but you have to know how to connect with people. Neil either needs to hire someone with these connections or find a firm who can assist. It seems he just doesn’t have the right connections.[/QUOTE

Did you read the part that states he interfaces as much as anyone in the country?
I talk to a lot of people as well but doesn’t mean I have any influence on them.

“Sullivan’s staff reached out to every Top-75 program in the country as well as other name-brand opponents that Flyer fans would enjoy.”

This is same as saying I reach out to the Forbes Top 500 Every year asking to be their CFO but they all decline. Sure I reached out but with no connections I need to make them think they need me
More than I need them.

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Old 08-15-2019, 11:38 AM
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Despite contrary suggestions on the board, it appears Neil is doing a good job of trying to schedule the best teams available. In the past our OOC schedule has been a strength, and last year would have been the same, we just didn't win enough. Reading the report, it appears that Neil is helping other A-10 teams in the scheduling area. A good thing to do as it helps the A-10 overall strength and by extention the Flyers.
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Old 08-15-2019, 12:26 PM
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[QUOTE=TX Flyer;590735]
Originally Posted by TA111 View Post

I talk to a lot of people as well but doesn’t mean I have any influence on them.

“Sullivan’s staff reached out to every Top-75 program in the country as well as other name-brand opponents that Flyer fans would enjoy.”

This is same as saying I reach out to the Forbes Top 500 Every year asking to be their CFO but they all decline. Sure I reached out but with no connections I need to make them think they need me
More than I need them.
Come on, let’s not be silly here. Most AD’s who have been around a while and are active know each other. This isn’t a situation where someone is reaching out with no knowledge or “connections”.
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Old 08-15-2019, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Despite contrary suggestions on the board, it appears Neil is doing a good job of trying to schedule the best teams available. In the past our OOC schedule has been a strength, and last year would have been the same, we just didn't win enough. Reading the report, it appears that Neil is helping other A-10 teams in the scheduling area. A good thing to do as it helps the A-10 overall strength and by extention the Flyers.
Geez, Neil and UD are helping others in the A-10 with scheduling due to their expertise, but reading a couple of posters here you’d think they didn’t anything or had any connections.
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:37 PM
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I know this is focused on OOC but Chris did you have or had any discussions about H/Hs in the A10
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Old 08-15-2019, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
This is what I was going to come post. You can be the smartest guy in the room but you have to know how to connect with people. Neil either needs to hire someone with these connections or find a firm who can assist. It seems he just doesn’t have the right connections.
I don’t necessarily agree with this. I’m more inclined to think he has a lot of connections...but we are going to need to up the opportunities to interact with programs we want to schedule. Based on what Chris is reporting - which is an excellent read - it’s going to take more than Neil in this effort. AG, his staff, and even Pres Spina along with the AD staff may very well have to buy those golf foursome teams and go support a school’s golf tournament just for the opportunity to socialize with their counterparts and advance relationships on multiple levels.

In my career I was Sr VP of Sales and Marketing. My clients were large companies like ATT, Citibank, AmX, etc. the contracts we were vying for were multi-million dollars - the kind of deals that take 2-3 years to cultivate. Every year I had what I called a “Full-Court Press” list. These were the 10-12 companies we wanted to do business with but hadn’t been able to secure a contract yet. I then designed the game plan to “touch” that company as many times as we could that year by deploying every executive we had as many times as we could to intertwine someone from our company with someone at each of those companies. It was highly successful, resulting in more than $20 million in new business every year. It was so successful we had to pull it back some years because we couldn’t grow fast enough to service the accounts.

The one critical factor here is you have to “have something to sell” that benefits the target. We had that and UD may not...Neil & Company will have to get creative and go the extra mile to lay out for each team the advantages of putting the Flyers on their schedule. They can’t just run the at-large math for UD. I think we are above average on knowing the math it takes to maximize opportunities. I don’t believe others are as good. For P5 schools they very well may be far behind us in this area because their conference makes it easy to get an at-large bid. An at large bid is Dayton’s goal every year just in case we need it. It’s not a concern for those who “always” get one.

However, I think those “always” schools would be interested if Neil & Co could layout putting Dayton on their schedule will help them improve their seed. That’s what will get their attention. That’s what can turn their current response of, “its not a good fit” in to wanting to make it happen. Maybe Neil is already doing this? Chris has given the fans a great look into this year’s challenges. They contacted every Top 75 plus some. Maybe it’s going to take 3 or 4 contacts into each of those 75. Maybe it’s going to take a multi-media sales presentation that a team of 3-4 travels to several key schools to sit down and meet and make the presentation. It’s a brave new world. It’s going to take more than same-old, same-old.

I would take everyone of those Top 75 plus all the others we tried to land this year and start building the matrix for next year. Do the math for every school as if they had accepted Dayton’s offer this year. Figure out what schools would have been better off playing the Flyers ... and then make sure multiple decision makers at those schools have this information. Show them why it’s good FOR THEM to schedule Dayton. I assume the math will not necessarily be better for everyone of the Top 75, but I’m confident it will be for 10-20 programs and we should be able to land 3-4 of those next year. The Flyers are going to be really good the next couple years. Use our strength of understanding the math to show these schools how we can help them get what THEY want - which is a higher seed in the dance.

And also keep pounding the NCAA to fix the scheduling challenges and recruit other schools to do the same. It sounds like Neil is doing this.
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post

Come on, let’s not be silly here. Most AD’s who have been around a while and are active know each other. This isn’t a situation where someone is reaching out with no knowledge or “connections”.
Not all relationships are created equal. There's a big difference between knowing someone versus having a connection with someone.

That's not saying Neil has no connections, but recognizing his limitations as one person. I don't think it is that hard to imagine that someone outside of UD could bring different connections to the table as TX_Flyer suggests. Far be it from the primary consideration, but you would hope the staff could compliment each in other in this regard.
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:28 PM
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Originally Posted by bcross View Post
Not all relationships are created equal. There's a big difference between knowing someone versus having a connection with someone.

That's not saying Neil has no connections, but recognizing his limitations as one person. I don't think it is that hard to imagine that someone outside of UD could bring different connections to the table as TX_Flyer suggests. Far be it from the primary consideration, but you would hope the staff could compliment each in other in this regard.
Thank you for reading what I’m writing. I don’t know Neil and who he has strong or weak connections with. But if you bring in a person or firm solely for scheduling you can narrow the candidate list with a smaller scope of duties. This will allow Neil to continue to work the metrics and his contacts and potentially bridge a gap with those he can’t make progress with.

In response to another poster, if Neil is helping other schools so much then don’t complain when they get the P5 H/H series and we don’t.
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Old 08-15-2019, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
Thank you for reading what I’m writing. I don’t know Neil and who he has strong or weak connections with. But if you bring in a person or firm solely for scheduling you can narrow the candidate list with a smaller scope of duties. This will allow Neil to continue to work the metrics and his contacts and potentially bridge a gap with those he can’t make progress with.

In response to another poster, if Neil is helping other schools so much then don’t complain when they get the P5 H/H series and we don’t.
If you are refering to me. I haven't complained once about other teams schedule. In fact I complain very little about the Flyers, I leave that up to you and a few others. However, as they say, I will defend to the death your right to do so.
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:29 PM
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It's unfortunate that some people are, or being accused of, being judgemental on the quality of the job Neil is doing. I suspect Neil is doing an excellent job, and everything he can, and that almost everyone appreciates that. What some are suggesting is to think outside the box on different approaches, like a consultant. It is very hard for most of us to take that kind of approach, because it makes us look weak or wrong, but it is really the opposite. This is not about right or wrong, or competence. Maybe Neil is already involving other people and understands he needs to do things differently going forward. I hope so.
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
If you are refering to me. I haven't complained once about other teams schedule. In fact I complain very little about the Flyers, I leave that up to you and a few others. However, as they say, I will defend to the death your right to do so.
I couldn’t remember who it was when typing but I was replying to you and TA.
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:37 PM
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It sounds like we need a volunteer team of alumni and supporters of the program, across the country, to represent the Athletic Department, to glad hand the administrators at all of these universities.

It's outside the box thinking. And it may not help. But it can't hurt (as long as the volunteers know their roles and stay in their lane and don't try to negotiate deals!).

I'd volunteer some of my time to help the Athletic Department. Even for fundraising activities that could enhance the university's reputation amongst its peers.
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Old 08-15-2019, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by GoFlyer View Post
I am not expecting Kansas or Michigan State to show up at the arena for a non conference match up. But I would expect something better than we are seeing . . including matchups with teams that are in the same boat as us
in non p5 leagues.
I agree.

Part 4 indicates that we are targeting top 75 teams and teams from the MWC, A10, AAC, and WCC. IMO, that is much too narrow of a scope if we are talking about adding 1 or 2 more non-p5 home and home series per year. We are likely only going to be able to get around 2 of these top 75 games per year, outside of exempt tournaments, like we did this year, due to the fact that it sounds like there are no other top 75/aac/mwc/wcc/a10 teams that want to play us.

We are going to have to start targeting maybe the top 100 or top 125. Q2 road wins top out at #135.

I would rather do a home and home with #90 and #100 than play 2 buy games. You may get lucky, #90 or #100 might have an usually good year(s), that can and does happen.

I am not blaming this on not having the necessary connections, or Neil not trying hard enough. There are likely over a hundred other teams out there trying to land the same opponents as us, connections can only do so much. And it sounds like Neil is working very hard.

I hear little talk of targeting teams #76 and worse for home and homes, IMO, that is likely our only option at this point in terms of getting more home and homes.

Also, I would not be opposed to a winnable one-way road game.

Chris, have we offered one-way road games?

Last edited by ud2; 08-15-2019 at 03:48 PM..
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Old 08-15-2019, 05:08 PM
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Yes. We will play a one way road game at Kansas if Kansas agrees to play us. They dont, and not enough non mechanized dates to care anyway.
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Old 08-15-2019, 05:33 PM
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An impression...

I intend to hold my thoughts until all five segments are posted. But, I can't resist commenting now re one thing that I think is telling.

In a few of the posts right above "contacts" and "connections" are discussed. I believe Neil has made as many "calls" as is humanly possible. But, here we are, the UD Flyers opening a "new" Arena after a $70+ million renovation....and opening we've known about for a long time.

And we are unable to land a marquis opponent for the opening game? In spite of the "million" phone calls the UD AD doesn't have one "friend" he can call for a real favor?...no "chips" to play?....not one "debt" that needs to be repaid? After all that effort he comes up empty. Wow!

As others have said, phone calls and contacts are not "connections", not real "ins" as far as the AD community is concerned. The results suggest that UD has no real clout at all....we needed a favor and couldn't get one, anywhere, after ~ 2 years trying?

Our effort is 110%; of that I'm confident and appreciative....very appreciative. But there is something troubling about the lack of real payoff...which the Arena opening game suggests to me.

(More later with at least one new idea.)
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Old 08-15-2019, 05:44 PM
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I’m through part 4. This is very interesting stuff. I’m still, however, looking to understand Neil’s thought on 2 for 1 deals. Both the kind where we only get 1 home game and the kind where we get 2 home games. Yes, UD may need to give up some revenue from a couple of those crappy buy games...
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Old 08-15-2019, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
Thank you for reading what I’m writing. I don’t know Neil and who he has strong or weak connections with. But if you bring in a person or firm solely for scheduling you can narrow the candidate list with a smaller scope of duties. This will allow Neil to continue to work the metrics and his contacts and potentially bridge a gap with those he can’t make progress with.

In response to another poster, if Neil is helping other schools so much then don’t complain when they get the P5 H/H series and we don’t.
You totally missed the point. Other schools have apparently come to Neil and UD for help because of their knowledge and expertise.
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Old 08-15-2019, 07:27 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
You totally missed the point. Other schools have apparently come to Neil and UD for help because of their knowledge and expertise.
Then I missed your point and will reread the post.

I’m not doubting Neil knows how to manipulate the data. I just want to be able to take advantage of what he does find. There is no shame in using your expertise and involving someone else to utilize theirs is my point.
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Old 08-16-2019, 01:55 AM
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Interesting that for A10 H/Hs Neil values A10 finish versus more opportunities for higher quadrant wins

That would be the one thing in the logic presented in these articles that I would question
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Old 08-16-2019, 04:23 AM
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The final installment in the 5-part series is now posted. Click banner in the original post. Discussion focuses on Maui scheduling, data gathering, decompression windows, and some final thoughts and expectations.
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Old 08-16-2019, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
The final installment in the 5-part series is now posted. Click banner in the original post. Discussion focuses on Maui scheduling, data gathering, decompression windows, and some final thoughts and expectations.
Chris,
Thanks for the work in putting together this series. Very informative and enlightening. It addressed most of the concerns I've had even though I was aware of some of the behind-the-scenes data mining and horse-trading that goes on to pull together a schedule. But I'm also like a lot of the rest of us, an alum and decades-long season ticket holder who always wants what the big boys have. We'll get there, and this year will be the start of that.

Go Flyers!
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Old 08-16-2019, 08:06 AM
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Outstanding Series

Thanks for all the hard work Chris, Neil and staff. In Neil we trust. Go Flyers!
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Old 08-16-2019, 08:35 AM
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Great job Chris. I particularly enjoyed the rescheduling efforts used and the Mich St connections to get a much higher rated team in the arena. This is a much more complex matter than most people realize.
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Old 08-16-2019, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Interesting that for A10 H/Hs Neil values A10 finish versus more opportunities for higher quadrant wins

That would be the one thing in the logic presented in these articles that I would question
It's a balancing act. He's trying to get the right balance of best schedule that allows them to compete for the top of the league.

If we have the best NET rating in the conference but finish 5th, I'd bet a good chunk of coin that the NCAA committee won't dig deep enough into the schedules to realize what happened. Instead, they'll take the easy way out and assume the NET rating is an aberration.

This is where UD would need to be proactive and point it out to the committee. My guess is the committee will still conclude, "It's just the A-10. Should have won more."
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Old 08-16-2019, 10:09 AM
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Financial Commitments. Not!

I am always disturbed when I hear about "financial commitments" to support the athletic department. We have a golden goose that very, very few other schools have....and those other schools manage to produce teams that are competitive with UD. Rather than milking the men's BB program to support the rest, I suggest using more of it as an "investment" that helps us achieve our main goal...getting to the NCAAs "more often than not", i.e., about six times in a decade.

When you make the Dance to earn money. When you win games you earn even more money. The right OOC schedule helps us toward that goal.

While men's BB is a major source of department funds, it provides less than half the cost of UD's athetics budget. Rather than thinking of men's BB as a cash machine that lowers the burden on the University, I suggest we think of it as an investment vehicle that can be used to better our chances of making the NCAAs.

Here's an idea for doing that:

We have great difficulty getting desirable opponents to play H/H series. Some, we hear, were right on the fence but then the deal fell through. Let's try to look at it with the perspective of the fish we almost reeled in; but that got away. What might have changed the dynamic. (Not thinking of Power 5 schools.)

For a school like Loyola, just as an example, a H/H deal with UD is not a level playing field. We'll put 12000+ in the Arena and they will draw maybe 4000-5000 at their place. Suppose we were to offer a level financial playing field, i.e., we say, "We'll share revenue with you...50-50 based on combined average attendance of both schools.

That means, of course, that UD will make a payment to the opponent since we'll draw 5000 or more fans. Total attendance for both games might be 18000, let's say, an average of 9000 per game. In which case UD pays Loyola the equivalent of 3000 or so fans. We lose some revenue and Loyola gains revenue. But the point is, to persuade that "desirable opponent" to play us H/H we've enticed them by leveling the financial playing field.

Perhaps the cost to UD would approximate the cost of a "buy game". But that is an investment toward our ultimate goal...an OOC schedule that gets us to where the real pot of gold is, the NCAAs.

Maybe we've tried things like this. If not, I suggest that we use our financial advantage such that the opponent on the fence wants to play sat the Arena.

Think about it.
___________
One more thought on the "connections" issue: Eric Spina was at Syracuse for nearly 30 years, the last ten as Vice Chancellor and Provost. Not only does he know the SU president, AD and Jim Boeheim....he knows them personally. And Spina couldn't call in a favor and get SU to play at the Arena? Whew!

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Old 08-16-2019, 10:26 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
Great job Chris. I particularly enjoyed the rescheduling efforts used and the Mich St connections to get a much higher rated team in the arena. This is a much more complex matter than most people realize.
I liked the insights into this too. Swapping Delaware St for Charleston Southern is about as unsexy as it gets in terms of scheduling. But its actually very significant.

It would be nice to lean on that MSU connection for a game...
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Old 08-16-2019, 11:10 AM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I am always disturbed when I hear about "financial commitments" to support the athletic department. We have a golden goose that very, very few other schools have....and those other schools manage to produce teams that are competitive with UD. Rather than milking the men's BB program to support the rest, I suggest using more of it as an "investment" that helps us achieve our main goal...getting to the NCAAs "more often than not", i.e., about six times in a decade.

When you make the Dance to earn money. When you win games you earn even more money. The right OOC schedule helps us toward that goal.

While men's BB is a major source of department funds, it provides less than half the cost of UD's athetics budget. Rather than thinking of men's BB as a cash machine that lowers the burden on the University, I suggest we think of it as an investment vehicle that can be used to better our chances of making the NCAAs.

Here's an idea for doing that:

We have great difficulty getting desirable opponents to play H/H series. Some, we hear, were right on the fence but then the deal fell through. Let's try to look at it with the perspective of the fish we almost reeled in; but that got away. What might have changed the dynamic. (Not thinking of Power 5 schools.)

For a school like Loyola, just as an example, a H/H deal with UD is not a level playing field. We'll put 12000+ in the Arena and they will draw maybe 4000-5000 at their place. Suppose we were to offer a level financial playing field, i.e., we say, "We'll share revenue with you...50-50 based on combined average attendance of both schools.

That means, of course, that UD will make a payment to the opponent since we'll draw 5000 or more fans. Total attendance for both games might be 18000, let's say, an average of 9000 per game. In which case UD pays Loyola the equivalent of 3000 or so fans. We lose some revenue and Loyola gains revenue. But the point is, to persuade that "desirable opponent" to play us H/H we've enticed them by leveling the financial playing field.

Perhaps the cost to UD would approximate the cost of a "buy game". But that is an investment toward our ultimate goal...an OOC schedule that gets us to where the real pot of gold is, the NCAAs.

Maybe we've tried things like this. If not, I suggest that we use our financial advantage such that the opponent on the fence wants to play sat the Arena.

Think about it.
___________
One more thought on the "connections" issue: Eric Spina was at Syracuse for nearly 30 years, the last ten as Vice Chancellor and Provost. Not only does he know the SU president, AD and Jim Boeheim....he knows them personally. And Spina couldn't call in a favor and get SU to play at the Arena? Whew!

UAC-The article mentions that UD picked up some of the Charleston Southern costs to entice them to come to the arena. Also, it has been reported in the past that UD not only paid St. Marys to come to the arena, but also paid St Marys to play at their place. It would seem Neil is willing to open the checkbook when needed and prudent.
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Old 08-16-2019, 11:47 AM
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Good start, but,..

Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
UAC-The article mentions that UD picked up some of the Charleston Southern costs to entice them to come to the arena. Also, it has been reported in the past that UD not only paid St. Marys to come to the arena, but also paid St Marys to play at their place. It would seem Neil is willing to open the checkbook when needed and prudent.
But is it enough? In my opinion we should be willing to pay an opponent that we want to play, that can help us, as much, indeed more, than we would pay a "buy game" opponent that doesn't help us at all.

I don't know what a buy game cost these days...I'll guess $100, approximately. If that's close, why hesitate to pay a really desirable opponent, to whom finances matter, $250K? I'll bet the examples you cited aren't close to that level.

Do we want to get to the NCAAs or not? UD's attendance revenues may well be the one and only advantage we have. Why not use it and worry less about supporting the rest of the athletics department?

Instead of analyzing box scores going back decades, how about researching the finances of desirable opponents? (Even Power 5 schools lose money; but a few hundred K means little to them.)

An example re understanding opponents financial circumstances. If Neil picked up the phone and called UConn's AD, Dave Benedict, saying "Dave, play us a four game H/H series and I'll pay you $1 million", Benedict would hang up and start reserving rooms at the Dayton Marriott. Why? UConn athletic dept is in a desperate situation...$20 million to switch conferences, possibly another $10 million owed to a former BB coach, all three revenue sports lose money, and an annoyed legislature wondering where the money will come from. UConn is being paid $1million to play a FB game at Clemson in 2021.

Now I understand that the $1 million figure is ridiculous. But, would $250K do it for a two game H/H series with UConn? Maybe. Dan Hurley knows all about the Arena and would not be scared off.

More probable, other privates athletics departments (even some BE schools) are not flush financially, Those on the fence re scheduling UD may be persuaded if the price was right. And we have the resources! Remember, the goal is the NCAAs. You earn money when you make the Dance...with the potential for much more if you win.

I am suggesting that if it can really help toward our goal, the NCAAs, opening the checkbook alone may not be enough. To get an opponent or two that we really want, that can do us some good, a more generous approach is warranted...an offer that's hard to refuse. I doubt if we're close to that point.

Attendance of nearly 13000 puts us in a class by ourselves among non P5 schools...a strong financial advantage....most likely our only advantage. We should use it. College athletics is about money. If we succeed payback comes from the NCAA checks.
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We have been told the scheduling landscape has changed dramatically. It has been explained in detail. That means we have to change. The strategy that has worked so well in the past has to evolve in a significant way to accommodate the new situation.

We will succeed so long as don't lose sight of the ultimate goal...regular NCAA appearances and the financial payoff that will mean.

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Old 08-16-2019, 01:01 PM
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UAC, I like your thinking. Another thought I did not see discussed in the article is this.
Full disclosure, this may have been how we landed Indiana state. Can we offer our football program as a sort of… Sacrificial lamb… To get a basketball team on our home schedule? I’m thinking about teams like Villanova, Middle Tennessee, basically any non-Mac And especially one AA teams. Why do we play Duquesne every year? Can we get rid of that game and play at a Villanova or even Yukon since they are so bad, if that means we get them to the arena?
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Old 08-16-2019, 01:14 PM
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Chris,

Truly excellent work here and the best deep dive I've seen into the Flyers. This is the type of info that Flyer fans don't get often
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Old 08-16-2019, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
UAC, I like your thinking. Another thought I did not see discussed in the article is this.
Full disclosure, this may have been how we landed Indiana state. Can we offer our football program as a sort of… Sacrificial lamb… To get a basketball team on our home schedule? I’m thinking about teams like Villanova, Middle Tennessee, basically any non-Mac And especially one AA teams. Why do we play Duquesne every year? Can we get rid of that game and play at a Villanova or even Yukon since they are so bad, if that means we get them to the arena?
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Teams like Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois and others have used their football teams as bargaining chip

The issue for UD I think is that outside Villanova the FCS (1AA) schools aren't great at basketball.

Definitely an idea worth considering but scanning over the FCS conferences I don't see many consistently good basketball programs

I've seen ESPN and others mention the success of VCU, Gonzaga, Xavier, etc is that they don't have scholarship football
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Old 08-16-2019, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
UAC, I like your thinking. Another thought I did not see discussed in the article is this.
Full disclosure, this may have been how we landed Indiana state. Can we offer our football program as a sort of… Sacrificial lamb… To get a basketball team on our home schedule? I’m thinking about teams like Villanova, Middle Tennessee, basically any non-Mac And especially one AA teams. Why do we play Duquesne every year? Can we get rid of that game and play at a Villanova or even Yukon since they are so bad, if that means we get them to the arena?
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Teams like Western Kentucky, Southern Illinois and others have used their football teams as bargaining chip

The issue for UD I think is that outside Villanova the FCS (1AA) schools aren't great at basketball.

Definitely an idea worth considering but scanning over the FCS conferences I don't see many consistently good basketball programs

I've seen ESPN and others mention the success of VCU, Gonzaga, Xavier, etc is that they don't have scholarship football
You have to remember, that we do not offer scholarship football either. So that limits us to who we can realistically play in football that can leverage us a basketball game. The upper level FCS is really the best we can do when it comes to playing football games against. The only real decent school who we have played in the past that would be nice to leverage a game with is Georgetown. The rest of the realistic targets are schools in the MVC, NEC, the CAC. Honestly, that is a whole lot of blah when it comes to basketball.
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Old 08-16-2019, 04:12 PM
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Adam Tschuor, UD's Sr. Associate AD posted this pic of Neil during one of their 'war room' scheduling sessions:

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Old 08-16-2019, 09:51 PM
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Thanks for taking the time to put this together and for providing a window into our scheduling challenges.

One thing that either I missed or was not addressed is getting potential home and home series games on national TV. My understanding is that the top programs want to be assured the game will at least be on an ESPN network or else they won't schedule a home and home series (or a neutral site game for that matter). CBSSN and NBCSN may not cut it for some programs, particularly because of the limited number of households those networks reach. For example, I doubt the UC/Ohio State series would have happened last year without a guarantee the game would end up on ESPN.

Does the current A-10 TV contract help or hinder us in that regard?
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Old 08-17-2019, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
I’m through part 4. This is very interesting stuff. I’m still, however, looking to understand Neil’s thought on 2 for 1 deals. Both the kind where we only get 1 home game and the kind where we get 2 home games. Yes, UD may need to give up some revenue from a couple of those crappy buy games...
I appreciate all the effort that Chris put into this, but but there were a lot of questions from the questions thread that went completely unanswered. Oh well...


http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33170
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Old 08-17-2019, 04:10 PM
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Which questions were not answered?
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Old 08-18-2019, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I appreciate all the effort that Chris put into this, but but there were a lot of questions from the questions thread that went completely unanswered. Oh well...


http://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33170
Our AD has let Chris into his inner circle, and afforded him time that only comes when he is sure he won't get blind sided by the privilege. Chris covered an incredible list of subjects and Neil accommodated him.

Surely you spoke with sarcasm and should have put a happy face next to your response.
I have been following the Flyers since the '50's and never have I ever seen an AD open up with the candidness that Neil afforded Chris. Show some class.

Do you really think that there were not some subjects that were strictly not allowed to leave the room?
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  #66  
Old 08-18-2019, 01:46 PM
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Consider the source SDF
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Old 08-20-2019, 10:44 PM
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Chris,

Are Quad 1 wins the most important metric?
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Old 08-21-2019, 01:51 PM
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Absolutely. However for UD total wins is equally important

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Old 08-21-2019, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Which questions were not answered?
#3 I would like to know Neil's top 3 out-of-the-box ideas to attack this scheduling dilemma.


#5 P5/BE 20 game schedules limit options for all other teams in the non conference. Top of CUSA, top of Missouri Valley, tippy top of Horizon, Murray St, Belmont, New Mexico St, all teams that should be in a similar boat as UD. Were they approached about H/H series? If they declined...for Gods sake why???


#6 What flexibility truly exists in the overall scheduling model? For example, during seasons that UD appears strong, like this season, is there an option to take less buy games and challenge the team by playing a true road game against a worthy/winnable/stretch opponent? Also, what about more 2 for 1 games? I’d like to see something like this: Yr 1: OSU (A), Murray St (H), Belmont (H); Yr 2: OSU (H), Murray St (A), Belmont (A) Yr 3: OSU (A), Murray St. (H), Belmont (H). Obviously the teams are representative of teams that we could potentially get 2 for 1 games (both ones we could get only 1 home game and 2home games). This scenario loses a home game in year two instead of buy games but affords better home games and better opportunity for good away game wins.

Also what about playing 1 for 2 series?


#7 If you play a Toledo, Vermont or Murray State what do you lose if the series is a bust? A home game this year and there's a good buy caliber game on the schedule for next year


#10 Agree! Neil has explained clearly that scheduling is a whole new ball game...completely different than in the past. That being the case, what is he doing that's "completely different"?*

What is the status of the "coalition of the willing" initiative? And if it has not moved forward, specifically, why not? Why, exactly, is a teamed approach to scheduling not attractive to like-minded schools when it is to UD? What's so different about UD? What would we have to do to make a scheduling coalition work?


#19 Is there any way that the non-p5 schools can band together in a class-action lawsuit and sue the p5 for monopolistic, anti-competitive behavior?

Last edited by ud2; 08-21-2019 at 03:15 PM..
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Old 08-21-2019, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Our AD has let Chris into his inner circle, and afforded him time that only comes when he is sure he won't get blind sided by the privilege. Chris covered an incredible list of subjects and Neil accommodated him.

Surely you spoke with sarcasm and should have put a happy face next to your response.
I have been following the Flyers since the '50's and never have I ever seen an AD open up with the candidness that Neil afforded Chris. Show some class.

Do you really think that there were not some subjects that were strictly not allowed to leave the room?
We will have to agree to disagree.

I do not feel like there was much new information revealed in this 5 part series. It was by and large just a rehashing of the same topics that have been thoroughly discussed on here for the last several years.

If you have been paying any attention at all the last few years, then you pretty much already knew all the stuff that was presented in this 5 part series.

But, I do understand that some things have to remain private.

And sorry, but I do not feel that there was anything lacking in class about my question.
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  #71  
Old 08-21-2019, 03:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Yes. We will play a one way road game at Kansas if Kansas agrees to play us. They dont, and not enough non mechanized dates to care anyway.
I think you are being coy about this. I am not interested in playing a one way road game at Kansas as we would have only a small percentage chance of winning IMO.

So, I will rephrase my question:

How many times over the last 5 years have we offered a one way road game to teams ranked around #15-#75 and had our offer rejected? I am guessing that we have offered this zero times.

How many times over the last 5 years have we offered a one way road game to teams ranked around #76-#135 and had our offer rejected? I am guessing that we have offered this zero times.

And I am guessing that you will tell me that the answers to these questions are private information and can not be divulged.

Last edited by ud2; 08-21-2019 at 03:10 PM..
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Old 08-21-2019, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
I am always disturbed when I hear about "financial commitments" to support the athletic department. We have a golden goose that very, very few other schools have....and those other schools manage to produce teams that are competitive with UD. Rather than milking the men's BB program to support the rest, I suggest using more of it as an "investment" that helps us achieve our main goal...getting to the NCAAs "more often than not", i.e., about six times in a decade.

When you make the Dance to earn money. When you win games you earn even more money. The right OOC schedule helps us toward that goal.

While men's BB is a major source of department funds, it provides less than half the cost of UD's athetics budget. Rather than thinking of men's BB as a cash machine that lowers the burden on the University, I suggest we think of it as an investment vehicle that can be used to better our chances of making the NCAAs.

Here's an idea for doing that:

We have great difficulty getting desirable opponents to play H/H series. Some, we hear, were right on the fence but then the deal fell through. Let's try to look at it with the perspective of the fish we almost reeled in; but that got away. What might have changed the dynamic. (Not thinking of Power 5 schools.)

For a school like Loyola, just as an example, a H/H deal with UD is not a level playing field. We'll put 12000+ in the Arena and they will draw maybe 4000-5000 at their place. Suppose we were to offer a level financial playing field, i.e., we say, "We'll share revenue with you...50-50 based on combined average attendance of both schools.

That means, of course, that UD will make a payment to the opponent since we'll draw 5000 or more fans. Total attendance for both games might be 18000, let's say, an average of 9000 per game. In which case UD pays Loyola the equivalent of 3000 or so fans. We lose some revenue and Loyola gains revenue. But the point is, to persuade that "desirable opponent" to play us H/H we've enticed them by leveling the financial playing field.

Perhaps the cost to UD would approximate the cost of a "buy game". But that is an investment toward our ultimate goal...an OOC schedule that gets us to where the real pot of gold is, the NCAAs.

Maybe we've tried things like this. If not, I suggest that we use our financial advantage such that the opponent on the fence wants to play sat the Arena.

Think about it.
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One more thought on the "connections" issue: Eric Spina was at Syracuse for nearly 30 years, the last ten as Vice Chancellor and Provost. Not only does he know the SU president, AD and Jim Boeheim....he knows them personally. And Spina couldn't call in a favor and get SU to play at the Arena? Whew!
Originally Posted by UACFlyer View Post
But is it enough? In my opinion we should be willing to pay an opponent that we want to play, that can help us, as much, indeed more, than we would pay a "buy game" opponent that doesn't help us at all.

I don't know what a buy game cost these days...I'll guess $100, approximately. If that's close, why hesitate to pay a really desirable opponent, to whom finances matter, $250K? I'll bet the examples you cited aren't close to that level.

Do we want to get to the NCAAs or not? UD's attendance revenues may well be the one and only advantage we have. Why not use it and worry less about supporting the rest of the athletics department?

Instead of analyzing box scores going back decades, how about researching the finances of desirable opponents? (Even Power 5 schools lose money; but a few hundred K means little to them.)

An example re understanding opponents financial circumstances. If Neil picked up the phone and called UConn's AD, Dave Benedict, saying "Dave, play us a four game H/H series and I'll pay you $1 million", Benedict would hang up and start reserving rooms at the Dayton Marriott. Why? UConn athletic dept is in a desperate situation...$20 million to switch conferences, possibly another $10 million owed to a former BB coach, all three revenue sports lose money, and an annoyed legislature wondering where the money will come from. UConn is being paid $1million to play a FB game at Clemson in 2021.

Now I understand that the $1 million figure is ridiculous. But, would $250K do it for a two game H/H series with UConn? Maybe. Dan Hurley knows all about the Arena and would not be scared off.

More probable, other privates athletics departments (even some BE schools) are not flush financially, Those on the fence re scheduling UD may be persuaded if the price was right. And we have the resources! Remember, the goal is the NCAAs. You earn money when you make the Dance...with the potential for much more if you win.

I am suggesting that if it can really help toward our goal, the NCAAs, opening the checkbook alone may not be enough. To get an opponent or two that we really want, that can do us some good, a more generous approach is warranted...an offer that's hard to refuse. I doubt if we're close to that point.

Attendance of nearly 13000 puts us in a class by ourselves among non P5 schools...a strong financial advantage....most likely our only advantage. We should use it. College athletics is about money. If we succeed payback comes from the NCAA checks.
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We have been told the scheduling landscape has changed dramatically. It has been explained in detail. That means we have to change. The strategy that has worked so well in the past has to evolve in a significant way to accommodate the new situation.

We will succeed so long as don't lose sight of the ultimate goal...regular NCAA appearances and the financial payoff that will mean.
I could not agree more UAC, we are being penny wise but pound foolish IMO.

Our strong attendance and revenue numbers are our only real advantages, and we are not taking full advantage of them.
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Old 08-21-2019, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
Absolutely. However for UD total wins is equally important
Q1 wins are more important than the total number of wins. Yes, there has to be a balance between the two, but we should error on the side of having more q1 opportunities.
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  #74  
Old 08-21-2019, 03:45 PM
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Chris, how long has Neil been in charge of scheduling? I would like to calculate our ooc average sos since he took over vs. the other A10 teams.


Overall, IMO, the schedule this year is below average for a program of our stature.

We are close, but we are still passing up too many opportunities for q1 and q2 games IMO.

Teams like BYU, Davidson, Nevada, and Rhode Island are who we should be copying.

We are still a day late and a dollar short and behind the curve yet again. We are never on the leading edge, we always take much too long to react to changes in the college basketball world.

And next year, the be and pac12 go to 20 game league schedules, that is another 46((11+12)×2)good ooc game opportunities that are gone forever, things are only going to get tougher.



We have 5 good ooc games this year.

Davidson has 7. Every little bit helps in today's hyper-competitive, p5-dominated world.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Davidson


BYU has as many as 10 if they get 3 good games in Maui. Holy cow, 10!!!

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=BYU


Nevada has 7.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nevada

https://nevadawolfpack.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=359


Rhode Island has 7.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Rhode+Island

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Old 08-21-2019, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Q1 wins are more important than the total number of wins. Yes, there has to be a balance between the two, but we should error on the side of having more q1 opportunities.
That’s why I edited my post to say wins are as important for UD. Teams from other conferences such as Indiana don’t have to worry about total wins as much. Unfortunately, we do since we have fewer chances at Q1
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Old 08-22-2019, 09:37 AM
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Paid Job or Not?

When weighing the credibility of an opinion I give greater value to the person who is paid to make the call. The person being paid has authority. I may disagree with an Umpire or Referee but they get paid to make the call. Thus, my opinion is not relevant. Neil Sullivan and staff are paid professionals.
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Old 08-22-2019, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Alberto Strasse View Post
When weighing the credibility of an opinion I give greater value to the person who is paid to make the call. The person being paid has authority. I may disagree with an Umpire or Referee but they get paid to make the call. Thus, my opinion is not relevant. Neil Sullivan and staff are paid professionals.
The "appeal to authority" fallacy if I recall way back to my freshman communications class. If the AD says its true, then it must be true.

This really has nothing to with Neil but the overall opposition to anyone questioning any decisions of those who run this program. Just look over the past 50 or so years at UD. Has UD always had the right people in authority making the decisions? Hindsight shows us many missteps along the way that have hindered the programs ability to reach the heights it is capable of reaching. I don't see any reason to doubt Neil is the right person for the job, but blindly accepting every decision he makes doesn't make much sense either. There is logic in asking questions to gain a better understanding to formulate a more educated opinion.
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Old 08-22-2019, 11:30 AM
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If we didn't have the ESPN Maui exempt tourney this year ... we would be screw*d ... deep pocketed traveling fans have bailed out the OOC schedule. UD fans pay more than donations to UD to support the team. UD fans do this year after year after year after ....

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Old 08-22-2019, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by marco red eagle View Post
If we didn't have the ESPN Maui exempt tourney this year ... we would be screw*d ... deep pocketed traveling fans have bailed out the OOC schedule. UD fans pay more than donations to UD to support the team. UD fans do this year after year after year after ....
But we do and we aren't
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Old 08-23-2019, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by marco red eagle View Post
If we didn't have the ESPN Maui exempt tourney this year ... we would be screw*d ... deep pocketed traveling fans have bailed out the OOC schedule. UD fans pay more than donations to UD to support the team. UD fans do this year after year after year after ....
While I agree about UD's fans being great, I do not think that we would be in an unsalvageable spot without Maui, we would just have to do what Davidson, Rhode Island, and Nevada are doing or play in one of the lower tier exempt tournaments. But, I agree that we would clearly be worse off without our fans and Maui.

There are a lot of these exempt tournaments, I did not realize just how many there really are until a couple of years ago, they have really multiplied.

https://www.bloggingthebracket.com/2...s-thanksgiving

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Old 08-26-2019, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Chris, how long has Neil been in charge of scheduling? I would like to calculate our ooc average sos since he took over vs. the other A10 teams.


Overall, IMO, the schedule this year is below average for a program of our stature.

We are close, but we are still passing up too many opportunities for q1 and q2 games IMO.

Teams like BYU, Davidson, Nevada, and Rhode Island are who we should be copying.

We are still a day late and a dollar short and behind the curve yet again. We are never on the leading edge, we always take much too long to react to changes in the college basketball world.

And next year, the be and pac12 go to 20 game league schedules, that is another 46((11+12)×2)good ooc game opportunities that are gone forever, things are only going to get tougher.



We have 5 good ooc games this year.

Davidson has 7. Every little bit helps in today's hyper-competitive, p5-dominated world.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Davidson


BYU has as many as 10 if they get 3 good games in Maui. Holy cow, 10!!!

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=BYU


Nevada has 7.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Nevada

https://nevadawolfpack.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=359


Rhode Island has 7.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Rhode+Island
You sound very much like my son as an adolescent.

"Jimmy has an Xbox, and Johnny has a Wii, and Ronnie has an iPhone, and Timmy has a big screen TV in his room. And all I have is this dumb Playstation!" It's the sin of comparison, where you assume that because you know someone who has each of those things, the whole world has ALL of those things while you only have one.

Yes ud2, by definition there will be a couple teams almost every year who have better schedules than us, sometimes for structural reasons and sometimes they just did a good job. Once in a while we'll land the best schedule in the country. But you can't pull out the couple of schools that ended up with a better schedule than us in any particular year and say Niel screwed up.

Let's bookmark this and come back in March to see how BYU and Nevada did. Maybe they did well, maybe in the final tally we did better.
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  #82  
Old 08-28-2019, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
You sound very much like my son as an adolescent.

"Jimmy has an Xbox, and Johnny has a Wii, and Ronnie has an iPhone, and Timmy has a big screen TV in his room. And all I have is this dumb Playstation!" It's the sin of comparison, where you assume that because you know someone who has each of those things, the whole world has ALL of those things while you only have one.

Yes ud2, by definition there will be a couple teams almost every year who have better schedules than us, sometimes for structural reasons and sometimes they just did a good job. Once in a while we'll land the best schedule in the country. But you can't pull out the couple of schools that ended up with a better schedule than us in any particular year and say Niel screwed up.

Let's bookmark this and come back in March to see how BYU and Nevada did. Maybe they did well, maybe in the final tally we did better.
Yes, but I am sure that at least every once in a while Jimmy, Johnny, and Ronnie all want what your son has because your son has something better.

I want to be Jimmy, Johnny, or Ronnie some of the time.

We are always just average or below average. I want to be the team that just says "what the heck" sometimes and just goes for it and comes up with an above average schedule.

I mean look at the BYU ooc schedule, wow, just wow. Why are we never THAT team?

San Diego State...home

Houston...away

Boise State...away

UCLA...neutral...plus 2 more likely high level Maui games

Utah...away

UNLV...neutral

Nevada...home

Utah State...neutral
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Old 08-28-2019, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Yes, but I am sure that at least every once in a while Jimmy, Johnny, and Ronnie all want what your son has because your son has something better.

I want to be Jimmy, Johnny, or Ronnie some of the time.

We are always just average or below average. I want to be the team that just says "what the heck" sometimes and just goes for it and comes up with an above average schedule.

I mean look at the BYU ooc schedule, wow, just wow. Why are we never THAT team?

San Diego State...home

Houston...away

Boise State...away

UCLA...neutral...plus 2 more likely high level Maui games

Utah...away

UNLV...neutral

Nevada...home

Utah State...neutral
Don't I keep reading that we had the #2 OOC schedule a few years ago? Wouldn't that have made us THAT team that year?
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Don't I keep reading that we had the #2 OOC schedule a few years ago? Wouldn't that have made us THAT team that year?
Fair enough, but that is a total anomaly. We are usually #103 under Neil.


Neil took over in September 2015, so maybe he is responsible for the 2016 schedule and forward.

Our Kenpom ncsos does not look all that great.


Kenpom ncsos rank:

2018-2019...114
2017-2018...118
2016-2017...77

Average: 309/3=103



http://www.udpride.com/forums/showpo...1&postcount=69


Kenpom...ncsos...adjem...A10 rank

New A10

2019...3
2018...5
2017...2

Neil average: 10/3=3.33.

That is not bad, but we should be #1 every year.


2015...5
2014...8

Old A10 with Butler in 2013, Charlotte leaves the A10 after 2013

2013...13

Old A10 without Butler

2012...9
2011...8
2010...5
2009...11


2008...7

2007...10
2006...7

Charlotte joins the A10 in 2006


2005...11
2004...9
2003...4
2002...12



130/18 seasons=7.22

Last edited by ud2; 08-28-2019 at 05:25 PM..
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Old 08-28-2019, 05:56 PM
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Theres no way you can be #1 every year and its been stated as material fact that there is more to earning an NCAA bid than SOS. Wins count too -- sometimes even more so than SOS. The data is incontrovertible for teams in the A10. Its a multi-factor approach.

You either want the #1 SOS in the country every year and for UD to still go 26-6 against that schedule (rose-colored pipedream), or you want the #1 schedule in the country every year and for UD to go 20-13 and earn an NCAA bid (mathematical pipedream). Dayton must target the middle ground where the Selection Committee has routinely demonstrated a willingness to dole out bids -- not where they have shown an unwillingness to.

If we could go 29-3 and play the schedule Kansas does, we wouldnt be Dayton. We'd be Kansas.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Theres no way you can be #1 every year and its been stated as material fact that there is more to earning an NCAA bid than SOS. Wins count too -- sometimes even more so than SOS. The data is incontrovertible for teams in the A10. Its a multi-factor approach.

You either want the #1 SOS in the country every year and for UD to still go 26-6 against that schedule (rose-colored pipedream), or you want the #1 schedule in the country every year and for UD to go 20-13 and earn an NCAA bid (mathematical pipedream). Dayton must target the middle ground where the Selection Committee has routinely demonstrated a willingness to dole out bids -- not where they have shown an unwillingness to.

If we could go 29-3 and play the schedule Kansas does, we wouldnt be Dayton. We'd be Kansas.
"But, Jimmy and Johnny and Ronnie have all those things, and I don't. I want the #1 SOS, AND a 27 win season, AND a great home schedule, AND to make the NCAA tournament. I reject your reality and replace it with my own."
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Old 08-29-2019, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
"But, Jimmy and Johnny and Ronnie have all those things, and I don't. I want the #1 SOS, AND a 27 win season, AND a great home schedule, AND to make the NCAA tournament. I reject your reality and replace it with my own."
Probably have to add a 15-15 or 14-16 schedule to that list to attain complete happyness.
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Old 08-29-2019, 09:50 AM
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Well, I want UD to win 30 games a year and make Sweet Sixteens or better three out of five years. Don't tell me it can't be done at UD. Villanova and Gonzaga do it.

But it can't happen overnight without cheating. Baby steps.
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Old 09-01-2019, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
You sound very much like my son as an adolescent.

"Jimmy has an Xbox, and Johnny has a Wii, and Ronnie has an iPhone, and Timmy has a big screen TV in his room. And all I have is this dumb Playstation!" It's the sin of comparison, where you assume that because you know someone who has each of those things, the whole world has ALL of those things while you only have one.

Yes ud2, by definition there will be a couple teams almost every year who have better schedules than us, sometimes for structural reasons and sometimes they just did a good job. Once in a while we'll land the best schedule in the country. But you can't pull out the couple of schools that ended up with a better schedule than us in any particular year and say Niel screwed up.

Let's bookmark this and come back in March to see how BYU and Nevada did. Maybe they did well, maybe in the final tally we did better.
Here is another data point for you...Davidson is playing 9 potential q1 and q2 ooc games, we have 5. And remember, just about everybody is picking Davidson to be better than us, it is not like they are supposed to stink this year.

Davidson notable ooc games:

vs Auburn (Annapolis)
@UNC-Charlotte
Nevada
vs Wake Forest (Charlotte)
vs Marquette (Orlando)
vs USC/Fairfield (Orlando)
@Northeastern
@Loyola-Chicago
@Vanderbilt
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Old 09-01-2019, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Here is another data point for you...Davidson is playing 9 potential q1 and q2 ooc games, we have 5. And remember, just about everybody is picking Davidson to be better than us, it is not like they are supposed to stink this year.

Davidson notable ooc games:

vs Auburn (Annapolis)
@UNC-Charlotte
Nevada
vs Wake Forest (Charlotte)
vs Marquette (Orlando)
vs USC/Fairfield (Orlando)
@Northeastern
@Loyola-Chicago
@Vanderbilt

Pretty good schedule for a program that has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2008.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:07 PM
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Davidson's proximity to Charlotte (Alums, Recruiting, Donors, etc.) opens doors through geography
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Old 09-01-2019, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Here is another data point for you...Davidson is playing 9 potential q1 and q2 ooc games, we have 5. And remember, just about everybody is picking Davidson to be better than us, it is not like they are supposed to stink this year.

Davidson notable ooc games:

vs Auburn (Annapolis)
@UNC-Charlotte
Nevada
vs Wake Forest (Charlotte)
vs Marquette (Orlando)
vs USC/Fairfield (Orlando)
vs tba (Orlando)
@Northeastern
@Loyola-Chicago
@Vanderbilt
Actually, Davidson has 10, not 9, notable q1 and q2 ooc games. There is a 3rd game in Orlando that I mistakenly left out...that is twice as many q1 and q2 ooc games as we have, and they are in the same league as us.

Last edited by ud2; 09-01-2019 at 02:57 PM..
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:00 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
Davidson's proximity to Charlotte (Alums, Recruiting, Donors, etc.) opens doors through geography
Ok, the Wake Forest and Charlotte games, I will give you that. But, they still have 8 good ooc games, we have 5.

IMO, the bottom line is that Davidson is much more committed to putting together a good ooc schedule this year than we are.

Last edited by ud2; 09-01-2019 at 03:03 PM..
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Actually, Davidson has 10, not 9, notable q1 and q2 ooc games. There is a 3rd game in Orlando that I mistakenly left out...that is twice as many q1 and q2 ooc games as we have, and they are in the same league as us.
4 Road Games and 5 neutral games
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Pretty good schedule for a program that has not won an NCAA Tournament game since 2008.
Again, they are supposed to be better than us this year. Isn't that significant?

And they've got a ncaat and nit appearance over the last 2 years, which is better than we did.
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Ok, the Wake Forest and Charlotte games, I will give you that. But, they still have 8 good ooc games, we have 5.

IMO, the bottom line is that Davidson is much more committed to putting together a good ooc schedule this year than we are.
They've had neutral court series with Wake Forest, North Carolina and Virginia at the Spectrum Center where the Hornets play

Vandy agreeing to a series with them is probably to get some face time in Charlotte. There's a lot of recruits, alums and donors (2nd biggest banking town in America)
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Ok, the Wake Forest and Charlotte games, I will give you that. But, they still have 8 good ooc games, we have 5.

IMO, the bottom line is that Davidson is much more committed to putting together a good ooc schedule this year than we are.
there's an active conspiracy of not just power conference teams but mid majors that won't play Dayton. Probably lucky to have the schedule we have
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Old 09-01-2019, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
there's an active conspiracy of not just power conference teams but mid majors that won't play Dayton. Probably lucky to have the schedule we have
Joking right? I can not always tell.
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Old 09-01-2019, 04:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Again, they are supposed to be better than us this year. Isn't that significant?

I guess??

But if Davidson is “supposed to be better than us this year,” why is it unusual that they have a few better games on the schedule? This seems to contradict your usual position that these other schools are doing something other than just on-court success to get better scheduling. In fact, you just posted:

“IMO, the bottom line is that Davidson is much more committed to putting together a good ooc schedule this year than we are.”

So is Davidson more committed to scheduling, or did they get a few better games because they are projected to be better than us?
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Old 09-01-2019, 04:04 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Joking right? I can not always tell.

C'est la vie, say the old folks, it just goes to show you never can tell...
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