NW Match

[BeckysTXA]

Tough, tough match today. Everyone has to be on.

I expect us to win the A10 like I do every year, but the X match and this match is big because these two teams are in the best conferences to help our rpi with this year's schedule. Loyola Marymount will be the other big rpi match.

Go Flyers!

[UDBrian]

During the intro they played music of the Chicago bulls intro. Very nice imho

[BeckysTXA]

UD is up 8-1. NW just took their 2nd...yes I said 2nd....timeout.

[BeckysTXA]

5 straight points by NW, 4 of which were UD errors, and we take our first time out up 12-10.

[UDBrian]

Nw ad a lot of trouble with serve receive lately they are pasd ing well and we are having trouble stopping them. 20 - 18 bad girls

[BeckysTXA]

NW all the way back taking the lead 18-20. TO UD

[UD62]

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA Tough, tough match today. Everyone has to be on. I expect us to win the A10 like I do every year, but the X match and this match is big because these two teams are in the best conferences to help our rpi with this year's schedule. Loyola Marymount will be the other big rpi match. Go Flyers!

Muskies going 0-2 so far with NW next doesn't help their cause at all

[BeckysTXA]

It's going to be a dog fight. NW goes on a 7-1 run to win the set 19-25.

[UDBrian]

After a rough start they played better. I have been impressed with maggie's play the last two matches

[ud69]

Blew an 8-1 lead to drop first set. Our weaknesses getting exposed. Will have to raise our game to compete better.

[UDBrian]

Originally Posted by ud69 Blew an 8-1 lead to drop first set. Our weaknesses getting exposed. Will have to raise our gam. Theto compete better.

I wouldnt say we blew the lead. That lead was created bec as use our serve created a buncg of errors on their part they dominated after that. Agree 100 percent on needing to raise their game which is happening. Could be a great match

[BeckysTXA]

Another 1-6 run by NW and UD needs a TO We lead by one 15-14 in the 2nd

[BeckysTXA]

NW coach has called TO anytime UD scores 3 points in a row. Problem is he's out of TOs so we went on a run starting with point 18. So he had to put in a sub to break our momentum it worked but UD still up 22-18. Need to close this out

[BeckysTXA]

UD takes 2nd 25-22 to even match at 1-1. Let's go Flyers.

[UDBrian]

25 - 22 ud. #13 for nw limping with ice on her ankle. Well played set they did just what ud69 said

[UDBrian]

Lights went out completely during rally hope they are having an electrician checking it out.

[UDBrian]

Loved those last two hard shoot sets to Jess great sets by jane

[BeckysTXA]

UD takes control of the match winning 25-17 in the 3rd. We need to close this door hard and move on to Chattanooga who is better than we thought. They beat X 3-1 this morning and will have more rest than us heading into the 7 pm match

[ud69]

Who is the player (I assume) in street clothes (dress)?

[UDBrian]

I think doggie said it was jordsn

[jack72]

Sloan with ice in her veins to serve two huge aces at crunch time, as the Flyers pull out a good win in 5 sets.

[BeckysTXA]

UD wins its first 5 set match this year. 15-11. NW will finish in the middle of the Big 10, so this is a great win their SOS will help us all year long.

Congrats team. Now we need to take care of business tonight. Chattanooga is better than we think. Don't give it back.

[BeckysTXA]

Also, I really did not like NWs jerseys. On video they looked like white t-shirts over dark long sleeve shirts. It looked so cheap,and I'm sure they cost plenty. Bad tv look

[Chris R]

Northwestern had a #53 RPI last year but were just 14-17 overall. They were the highest ranked team with a losing record in the country.

Are they supposed to be better this year? If they are 14-17 again, they wont help our RPI much since its all based on W/L record of our opponents. It would be about like beating #271 13-17 Niagara. Im talking math only....not perception.

Chattanooga was 26-6 last year.

[UDBrian]

great match, best one in a while. It was a good match by a lot of different players. I thought that NW's block was really good in the 1st set but UD adjusted and ran some much faster sets later which was productive. Jess and Bruns are both naturals for those low fast sets

Except for a couple of bad spells the passing was pretty good and seems to be getting better. You need that good passing to set the middles and shoot the ball to the outside hitters

We served the ball really well and made big plays in set 5.

Jamie had a big block on a back row attack and a kill.

Bruns had a kill and block assist

Kendyll had two kills and a block assist

Jess had three kills , had a net serve dribble over for an ace and then served up a wicked floater that dropped down for the second ace in a row.

The back row played well most of the match. Margo has been really impressive on defense but Maggie and Laura have made some big plays also. There seemed to be less passes behind the ten foot line which makes it tough on hitters and setters

Chris, since you are teaching math class, how is beating #54 rpi like beating #271?

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by Chris R Northwestern had a #53 RPI last year but were just 14-17 overall. They were the highest ranked team with a losing record in the country. Are they supposed to be better this year? If they are 14-17 again, they wont help our RPI much since its all based on W/L record of our opponents. It would be about like beating #271 13-17 Niagara. Im talking math only....not perception. Chattanooga was 26-6 last year.

Figgie is the expert in this area, but I'm pretty sure SOS plays into your rpi and both X and NW have solid schedules. Also I thought your schedule and the next generation of your opponents schedule/results factor in. So Nebraska and Penn State factors into our rpi calculation if that is the case. But I defer to a Figgie on this one

[ud69]

I think what chrisr is saying is that mathematically there is very little difference in beating a RPI # 53 14-17 team and a RPI #271 13-17 team.

At the second level computation - which is 50% of the RPI and is the average of the sum of each opponent's winning percentage - it is nearly identical. It is just one of the 30 or so winning percentages (all opponents) that go into the second level computation.

Mathematically, SOS is nothing more than the second level computation. SOS for a 13-17 or 14-17 team is virtually identical - regardless of their RPI.

However, there is indeed a bit of a variance at the third level - which is the average of the opponents' opponent's winning percentages - or as some would define it - the SOS of each of our opponents. It is here that an opponent of ours who has played a better schedule would help our own RPI. In reality, however, third level points have a diminishing effect. First, there are roughly 1000 matches in the computation by season's end. Second, for conference play, half of the teams win and half lose on a given night. Third, the third level points are only 25% of the RPI calculation -half the second level. Finally, because of these reasons, the standard deviation at the third level is very narrow. This means that while the ranking variance at the third level may be large, there is not a lot of raw RPI value difference between high and low teams at the third level. Hence it has a marginal effect on a team's overall RPI.

[UDBrian]

I thought about that question and realized that you need to finish in the top 40 RPI for an at large bid. Beating #53 doesn't help you get there

[Figgie123]

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA Figgie is the expert in this area, but I'm pretty sure SOS plays into your rpi and both X and NW have solid schedules. Also I thought your schedule and the next generation of your opponents schedule/results factor in. So Nebraska and Penn State factors into our rpi calculation if that is the case. But I defer to a Figgie on this one

As much as I appreciate the props here, Chris R has been doing Basketball RPI for longer than I've been doing Volleyball RPI. His (UDPride's) Basketball RPI is used by the NCAA for comparisons to make sure that they are accurate. He's more than capable of discussing RPI.

And as ud69 pointed out, RPI is just a math calculation. Chris R is talking about the middle 50% of RPI. NW's 14-17 and #251 14-17.

Put it all together, the first part of RPI is the most "changing" in a year. That's your winning percentage. Only 30 data points. Next is the middle 25%, which is average opponents' record. So, 30 data points, but they have 30 data points, so that's like 900 data points. And as Chris says, 14-17 is the same as 14-17. The last 25% is 30 * 30 * 30, approximately. So, 27000 data points. The range from top to bottom in the last section is pretty small.

Let's just keep winning.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by UDBrian I thought about that question and realized that you need to finish in the top 40 RPI for an at large bid. Beating #53 doesn't help you get there

This proves out every year even if teams with auto bids change. It very difficult to get and auto bid if your rpi is greater than 45.

[udisit19]

The committee picking at large teams looks at the teams you played as well and not just your RPI. I think the committee can tell the difference between a 14-17 record in the Big 10 and a 14-17 record in the MAAC. A win against Northwestern will look good whether they finish at rpi 34 and with a record of 19-13 or at rpi 77 with a re it'd of 13-19. I think Northwestern's road win against Virginia, and their sweeps of GW and Chattanooga will speak for themselves.
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[BeckysTXA]

First, I appreciate Figgie give us (me) some history about Chris and his rpi. I did not know that history. Second, I have no experience of any kind building an rpi model and the math behind it. What I do have is a pretty solid history of watching the rpi year after year and it appears strength of schedule plays into it more than one thinks. Clearly not as much as winning your own matches, but it has an impact. Using figgie' rpi dated 9/4, here are a couple examples.

SLU put together a strong schedule. They Have been struggling having won only one match and losing 5. Their rpi is 200. Duquesne is 3-2 with a weaker schedule. They have won two more matches than SLU but their rpi is 236 -- 36 slots below a team that's only won one match. At the same time, LaSalle was at rpi 46 when I looked all this up and their record was 7-0. (They are currently 7-1). They have played a super weak schedule, but they are winning. And finally, after the first week I got a huge laugh when I looked at figgie a rpi because a Pac 12 team was dead last in the rpi. Never thought I'd see that in my lifetime. Oregon had gone 0-2 the first weakend earning 332 rpi. This week they rebounded and are 3-2 and that jumped them up to 53. I find all that very interesting. It supports both arguments that winning is important and but it also shows the impact of SOS.

So what does this all mean for Dayton and the A-10? I think when the conference struggles to be a two-bid conference, scheduling across the conference is very important if it an swing the second teams rpi 10-20 slots. For any A10 team to get that at-large bid, rpi has to be 45 or better to even be considered. It will be interesting to follow some of the rpis like LaSalle and SLU.

And for the record, Dayton's rpi was 17 on figgies as of 9/4. Go Flyers.

[BeckysTXA]

Rpi update 9/5.

Dayton moves from 17 to 16 with 7-0 record and not playing.
LaSalle goes from 7-0 to 7-1 and rpi goes from 49 to 60.
SLU stays the same at 200 with their1-5 record.
DUQs record stays at 3-2 but rpi goes from 236 to 217.

One thing I thought of was maybe we need to "define" strength of schedule. When I say that I'm think of it as your opponents schedule, their opponents schedules and how successful those teams will be within their schedules, meaning mostly within their cionfetences because I don't study their OOC slates much. So I'm probably rolling in a win-loss factor of all those teams when I say strength of schedule. I expect Big East and Big 10 teams to win a lot so I expect NW and X's schedules to help our rpi

My use of the term strength of schedule is probably not the pure definition of the term when you look at it as a math calculation because I mentally roll in all the success I expect from NE, PSU, MN, Marqutte, Creighton, etc. my opponents-opponents. In other words, their win-loss records. That might explain why I think SOS impacts your rpi more than those that know the pure calculations.