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  #201  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:14 AM
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UD was picked to finish 9th in the league at the beginning of the season. I think this is an improvement.
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  #202  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:19 AM
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I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
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  #203  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:55 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Williams is 6'6'' and 205. Probably too big for Cohill. I would not be surprised if Cohill starts Sat for Davis.

Probably Mikesell and Landers guard him.
You may be right, but when St. Joe’s visited earlier this season, Cohill locked-down Charlie Brown, and he’s bigger and a better scorer than Williams. Still, I think Mikesell gets much of that assignment, based on the “do whatever the team needs” factor.
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  #204  
Old 03-07-2019, 01:04 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
Frankly, I’m worried about any potential opponent, because when we don’t worry about them, we lose. But as far as potential opponents for VCU are concerned, there’s no team at the bottom of the bracket that’s stronger than Rhody, and the Billikens have the muscle to take VCU’s punches and send a barrage of their own back at ‘em. So, yeah, I hope Rhody becomes VCU’s first opponent and, if they get by the Rams in Blue, I hope they get SLU after that.
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  #205  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:12 AM
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These are LIBob's probabilities from his first post in this thread, which uses a predictor for each game in the conference season and runs a lot of combinations. Interesting to see how it looks, and how close to accurate it was. Rhode Island too high, Saint Bonaventure too low, everyone else nearby within 2-3 spots.

Code:

Team             Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     1.99
Davidson            3.01
St Louis            3.41
Dayton              4.17
George Mason        5.27
Rhode Island        5.50
Duquesne            8.84
St Joseph's PA      9.20
St Bonaventure      9.75
G Washington        9.89
La Salle           10.48
Massachusetts      10.51
Richmond           10.97
Fordham            12.00
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  #206  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
You better worry about each and every one of them. As inconsistent as JC has been playing and if the guards come out listless, which one does most every game now, this team is dead...
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  #207  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:58 AM
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I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like

VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU

Four of those would be on the other side of the bracket, i.e. can't be faced until the final and will be beating each other up in the quarters and semis.

DUQ
GMU

and then a big gap

LAS
JOES
MASS
RICH
FORD
GW

Last edited by sheg; 03-07-2019 at 10:01 AM..
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  #208  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like

VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU
I would have the same 5 teams but in this order

VCU
SLU
SBU
URI
DC
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  #209  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:28 AM
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I would like to play LaSalle every game of the tournament.
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  #210  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like

VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU

Four of those would be on the other side of the bracket, i.e. can't be faced until the final and will be beating each other up in the quarters and semis.

DUQ
GMU

and then a big gap

LAS
JOES
MASS
RICH
FORD
GW
It appears we're locked into a match with Davidson in the semis, presuming we both win in the quarters. It's a matter of who do we not want to face in the quarters. I don't want any part of SLU or SBU. Would LOVE to see them be 4th and 5th with the winner of that game against VCU/Rhody quarterfinal winner.
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  #211  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:26 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 3/6:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth    100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
Davidson             0.00%  83.47%  16.53%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Dayton               0.00%  16.53%  83.47%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.83
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  55.16%  44.84%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.45
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  44.84%  10.89%  31.12%  13.15%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.13
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  25.53%  33.96%  40.51%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.15
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  18.75%  34.92%  46.33%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.28
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        8.00
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  97.82%   2.18%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.02
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.18%  74.55%  23.28%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.21
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  23.28%  76.73%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.77
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  67.58%  27.68%   4.74%       12.37
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  14.83%  60.09%  25.08%       13.10
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  17.59%  12.23%  70.18%       13.53
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  #212  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:36 AM
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Interesting that the probabilities have the Flyers at the 3 seed but the potential 6 match-up is really up for grabs between SLU, GM and Duquesne.
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Old 03-07-2019, 11:39 AM
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Okay, I'm sucked in again. I will be looking at this for the next 3 days.

If SLU doesn't win Saturday, they are most likely to end up on the 6 line.
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  #214  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:59 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I would like to play LaSalle every game of the tournament.
Interestingly enough, as bad as they are, prior to last night they had not lost an A10 game by more than 13 points and last night they even got their leading scorer back....
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:27 AM
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SLU wins at SBU = SLU 4 seed, SBU 5 seed. They can slug it out for the right to slug it out with URI/VCU for the right to lose to Dayton in the finals. DAY and DAV would open with DUQ or GMU. This is the best case scenario imo.

SBU wins they get the four. Then it gets interesting.

GWU (vs GMU), DAY win = SLU 5 (2 DAY vs 7 DUQ if Richmond beats Davidson, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU if not)

So if SBU (1:00) and GWU (2:00) win, Dayton ideally wins to bump SLU up to 5. Because

GWU, DUQ win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU

If SBU and GMU win:

DAY, DAV (@RIC) win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
DUQ win = 3 DAY vs 6 GMU, 2 DAV vs 7 SLU
DAY, RIC win = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU

(All this, of course, could be a case of "be careful what you wish for")

Last edited by sheg; 03-08-2019 at 01:31 AM..
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Old 03-08-2019, 11:59 AM
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Which scenario, if any, prevents us from getting in the top 4?
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:02 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Which scenario, if any, prevents us from getting in the top 4?
There's not any scenario
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:09 PM
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UD can be 2 or 3. No higher, no lower.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
UD can be 2 or 3. No higher, no lower.
So is there a distinct advantage to the two over the three?
Assuming we play well tomorrow and win...
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:33 PM
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Not really. It would be about matchups. See my post above for the possibilities.

Ideally, SLU and SBU are on the other side of the bracket and they and URI and VCU can all beat each other up for two days.

I'd rather face GMU than DUQ, but the difference is small. And facing Davidson, the only reason it would matter is what color uniform everybody wears.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:39 PM
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Not other than what time you play and who you play in the quarterfinals on Friday. Numbers 2 and 3 will play each other in the semifinals on Saturday if they both win on Friday.
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Old 03-08-2019, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Not really. It would be about matchups. See my post above for the possibilities.

Ideally, SLU and SBU are on the other side of the bracket and they and URI and VCU can all beat each other up for two days.

I'd rather face GMU than DUQ, but the difference is small. And facing Davidson, the only reason it would matter is what color uniform everybody wears.
In an ideal world, we'd like the best "matchup" in the quarters and a bonus would be Davidson (our likely semis opponent) having a crappy matchup, hence a chance to get knocked off.

The way it appears to be playing out, in my opinion, we're avoiding the toughest matchups for UD (based on personnel, style of play and key category advantages), or at least as many as we could reasonably hope for - with Rhody, SLU and SBU on the opposite side of the bracket. Not a big fan of potentially seeing Duquesne in the quarters, and would probably prefer George Mason simply because they've struggled down the stretch, having lost 4 of 5 and getting pasted by both VCU and SBU.

Best scenario from my perspective would be GMU at 6-seed and the Dukes at 7 seed, assuming we take the 3-seed. Flip them if we get the 2-seed.
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Old 03-08-2019, 01:03 PM
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If SBU, GMU, DAY, and RIC all win tomorrow, it's 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ and 3 DAV vs 6 SLU. I could see that working. Davidson wins on a lucky 3 at the buzzer after getting whalloped by SLU all day. Then their seven deep lineup limps into Saturday's game. That Would work. But I think SLU would win that matchup. And I'd rather face Davidson than SLU. SLU is gathering steam big time right now.
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Old 03-08-2019, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post

If SBU and GMU win:

DAY, DAV (@RIC) win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU

Just curious about this... If this happens wouldn't Duquesne and St. Louis be tied (10-8) and St. Louis would win the tiebreaker? Then we would play Duquesne as the #3 vs.#6?

Just seeing who we need to root for tomorrow as I would rather have us play Duquesne again vs. St. Louis, I think?!

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Old 03-08-2019, 07:04 PM
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GMU would be fifth in that scenario, SLU 6 (tiebreaker over DUQ), DUQ 7
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  #226  
Old 03-08-2019, 07:25 PM
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I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
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Old 03-09-2019, 12:27 AM
Glen Clark Glen Clark is offline
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Talking

Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride View Post
I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
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  #228  
Old 03-09-2019, 01:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
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Right, we play who we play. No matter who it is, we have to win, whether it's Fordham or VCU.
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Old 03-09-2019, 09:05 AM
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Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride View Post
I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
Right, we play who we play. No matter who it is, we have to win, whether it's Fordham or VCU.
Negative energy or not, I'd rather be playing Fordham than VCU.

Seriously, A SLU win gives them the 4 and SBU the 5, meaning both are on the other side of the bracket. Would give us GM or Duquesne in the 6 or 7 seed. Not going to lie, I would like to see that. A SLU loss, puts them in the mix for the 6 or 7 too.
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:58 AM
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Does not matter. This year's team can beat any A10 team if they come to play and shoot okay from outside. They can lose to anyone if they don't.
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  #231  
Old 03-09-2019, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Does not matter. This year's team can beat any A10 team if they come to play and shoot okay from outside. They can lose to anyone if they don't.
I agree with Jack; there are times when this team looks great and other times when they look horrible. Two ends of the spectrum - Virginia and the second Rhode Island game. If they play well, they literally can compete with anyone. If they play poorly, they could be one-and-done no matter the opponent. That is why I say, if they were able to play well through the A-10 tournament and then sneak into the NCAA, they could do some damage. As Jack indicates, a lot of it will depend on their outside shooting, and I will add their ability to secure the ball and limit errant passes.
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Old 03-09-2019, 03:14 PM
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My order of preference?
1) I want a rematch with GMU in the quarters. We have the “payback” factor on our side, and GMU has been slumping down the stretch.
2) If not GMU, then I’d rather see a rematch with SLU than Duquesne, for 3 reasons: (a) they also have a short bench, (b) they can’t shoot to save their lives, and (c) they’ll be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, so fatigue should be a factor with the short bench and the poor shooting, particularly in the 2nd Half (when we generally play better).
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Old 03-09-2019, 04:17 PM
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GM up 16 on GW 15 min left.

Assuming GM goes on to win:

Davidson and Flyers win - Flyers 3 playin SLU 6
Davidson and Flyers lose - Flyers 3 playing GM 6
Davidson lose and Flyers win - Flyers 2 playing Duquesne 7
Davidson and Flyers both lose - Flyers 3 playing GM 6

I think
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Old 03-09-2019, 04:38 PM
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Assuming GMU holds on.

Dayton, Davidson:

Both win = 2 DAV vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
Only DAV wins = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Only DAY wins = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU
Neither win = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU

Edit: 22 point game. I think GMU's got it

Short version: if Davidson loses, they play SLU. Dayton plays DUQ or GMU.

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  #235  
Old 03-09-2019, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Assuming GMU holds on.

Dayton, Davidson:

Both win = 2 DAV vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
Only DAV wins = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Only DAY wins = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU
Neither win = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU

Edit: 22 point game. I think GMU's got it

Short version: if Davidson loses, they play SLU. Dayton plays DUQ or GMU.
I never like to see us lose, but if losing tonight increases our probability of facing GMU again, I might be in favor of it. Otherwise, we’d have to beat Duquesne 3 times in 1 season, and the Dukes might be too motivated to let that happen.
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Old 03-09-2019, 06:42 PM
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Richmond and Duquesne wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 Duq vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 GMa vs ( 11 SJo vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 SLo vs 10 Ric ) )

------------------------

Richmond and Dayton wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 GMa vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Dav vs ( 6 SLo vs ( 11 SJo vs 14 For ) )
2 Day vs ( 7 Duq vs 10 Ric ) )

------------------------

Davidson and Duquesne wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 Duq vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 GMa vs ( 11 Ric vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 SLo vs 10 SJo ) )

------------------------

Davidson and Dayton wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 GMa vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 SLo vs ( 11 Ric vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 Duq vs 10 SJo ) )
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  #237  
Old 03-09-2019, 07:59 PM
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Richmond holds a 4 point lead over Davidson at the half.
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