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  #1  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:41 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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2019 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Now that the A-10 season has started, these are no longer way too early. Will update every Monday until about the midpoint of the conference schedule, then will update the day after game days.

Probabilities Through games of 1/6:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     50.00%  23.97%  13.08%   6.99%   3.53%   1.54%   0.58%   0.21%   0.07%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.99
Davidson            21.66%  24.46%  20.55%  14.57%   9.25%   5.33%   2.30%   1.03%   0.49%   0.20%   0.10%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%        3.01
St Louis            13.83%  22.76%  21.94%  16.95%  11.34%   6.58%   3.42%   1.62%   0.82%   0.43%   0.18%   0.09%   0.04%   0.01%        3.41
Dayton               8.55%  14.43%  18.18%  19.51%  15.52%  10.70%   6.17%   3.43%   1.84%   0.90%   0.44%   0.22%   0.09%   0.02%        4.17
George Mason         2.78%   6.65%  11.28%  16.32%  20.32%  17.90%  10.75%   6.26%   3.51%   2.11%   1.19%   0.63%   0.24%   0.08%        5.27
Rhode Island         2.89%   6.33%  10.65%  15.29%  18.25%  16.94%  11.64%   7.42%   4.50%   2.75%   1.65%   0.99%   0.52%   0.18%        5.50
Duquesne             0.12%   0.44%   1.29%   3.00%   5.76%   9.56%  13.41%  13.86%  12.70%  11.13%   9.75%   8.12%   6.39%   4.48%        8.84
St Joseph's PA       0.06%   0.35%   0.90%   2.11%   4.14%   7.85%  12.15%  13.70%  13.49%  12.63%  11.04%   9.16%   7.38%   5.05%        9.20
St Bonaventure       0.07%   0.28%   0.76%   1.70%   3.38%   6.07%   9.38%  11.26%  12.55%  12.42%  12.35%  11.67%  10.14%   7.96%        9.75
G Washington         0.02%   0.14%   0.53%   1.28%   2.88%   5.69%   9.08%  11.30%  12.64%  12.94%  12.61%  11.89%  10.60%   8.42%        9.89
La Salle             0.01%   0.06%   0.26%   0.74%   1.83%   3.88%   6.83%   9.38%  11.25%  12.76%  13.42%  13.77%  13.82%  12.00%       10.48
Massachusetts        0.02%   0.09%   0.38%   0.94%   2.09%   4.02%   6.49%   8.74%  10.61%  12.08%  13.45%  14.38%  14.30%  12.40%       10.51
Richmond             0.01%   0.04%   0.16%   0.43%   1.25%   2.79%   5.23%   7.69%   9.63%  11.49%  13.24%  14.83%  16.79%  16.42%       10.97
Fordham              0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.17%   0.45%   1.14%   2.58%   4.10%   5.89%   8.16%  10.57%  14.21%  19.70%  32.99%       12.00
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Alberto Strasse (01-07-2019), Glen Clark (01-07-2019), superfan99 (01-07-2019)
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  #2  
Old 01-07-2019, 01:07 PM
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LIBob... What are these numbers based on? I'm not being critical, I like these posts, just wondering what the basis is, as only 1 A10 game has been played and VCU is a 50% chance of first and Fordham has a 0% chance at first.


Actually I agree with the Fordham percentage (pencil that in for the next 50 years too)
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  #3  
Old 01-07-2019, 02:36 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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They are based upon the Massey Ratings game predictions. Simulate 100,000 seasons using the win percentages of each unplayed game. I was going to switch to barttorvik.com, but the win percentages are very similar and barttorvik has the home and away teams switched on one of the A10 games.
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  #4  
Old 01-14-2019, 02:33 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/13:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            50.64%  24.57%  14.20%   6.94%   2.49%   0.84%   0.22%   0.06%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.90
VA Commonwealth     17.21%  28.66%  24.04%  16.26%   8.64%   3.48%   1.23%   0.35%   0.10%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.88
St Louis            15.50%  19.25%  22.50%  21.07%  13.28%   5.20%   2.09%   0.71%   0.26%   0.08%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        3.27
Dayton              14.08%  19.19%  21.28%  21.15%  13.77%   6.40%   2.66%   1.01%   0.31%   0.12%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        3.39
George Mason         2.07%   6.45%  13.21%  22.45%  31.67%  13.75%   5.93%   2.54%   1.14%   0.49%   0.20%   0.08%   0.04%   0.00%        4.66
Rhode Island         0.32%   1.03%   2.26%   5.07%  11.10%  25.28%  20.76%  14.23%   8.74%   5.34%   3.12%   1.68%   0.79%   0.28%        6.97
Duquesne             0.07%   0.40%   1.19%   3.11%   7.66%  16.51%  19.07%  17.19%  12.89%   9.36%   6.07%   3.72%   1.93%   0.85%        7.83
St Bonaventure       0.11%   0.41%   1.08%   2.92%   6.57%  13.61%  18.07%  17.04%  13.94%  10.35%   7.26%   4.66%   2.81%   1.19%        8.11
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.03%   0.12%   0.45%   2.01%   5.28%   8.99%  12.00%  14.13%  14.76%  13.69%  12.21%   9.99%   6.34%        9.93
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.26%   1.26%   4.07%   7.67%  11.45%  13.66%  14.39%  14.41%  13.50%  11.39%   7.87%       10.23
Richmond             0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.21%   0.94%   2.78%   6.31%  10.23%  13.39%  15.40%  16.08%  14.72%  12.00%   7.90%       10.43
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.08%   0.35%   1.73%   4.03%   7.16%  10.85%  13.33%  15.06%  16.05%  16.70%  14.63%       11.09
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.16%   0.61%   1.78%   3.39%   5.72%   8.74%  12.79%  17.58%  22.52%  26.70%       12.01
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.10%   0.45%   1.20%   2.65%   4.85%   7.61%  11.24%  15.79%  21.83%  34.24%       12.29
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  #5  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:47 PM
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Next two games on the road are big ones! Intended or otherwise I think the scheduling to close out OC play was advantageous for the Flyers. Needed to regain some confidence. Watched Tulsa take UC to the brink to only give it away at the end. I think that loss will be ok actually. Getting an early leg up on VCU would be handy later on in conference play!
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:56 PM
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We have to make hay while the sun shines. 6 game stretch coming up starting Feb. 2 - @SLU, @URI, VCU, @Davidson, SLU, @UMASS
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  #7  
Old 01-21-2019, 12:39 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/20:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     33.12%  28.34%  18.55%  11.11%   5.66%   2.36%   0.74%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.39
Davidson            33.28%  25.35%  19.76%  12.37%   6.00%   2.43%   0.66%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.43
St Louis            17.35%  19.71%  21.20%  18.84%  13.53%   6.31%   2.38%   0.57%   0.10%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.24
Dayton              11.33%  15.47%  19.91%  21.18%  17.14%   9.83%   4.29%   0.67%   0.14%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.68
George Mason         3.98%   8.35%  14.31%  23.22%  29.63%  14.09%   4.92%   1.13%   0.26%   0.08%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.36
Rhode Island         0.54%   1.51%   3.06%   6.06%  12.61%  29.31%  29.67%  10.49%   4.15%   1.64%   0.63%   0.24%   0.08%   0.01%        6.32
Duquesne             0.39%   1.24%   3.06%   6.68%  13.24%  26.66%  28.24%  13.10%   4.60%   1.73%   0.69%   0.27%   0.09%   0.02%        6.38
St Bonaventure       0.01%   0.04%   0.14%   0.46%   1.56%   5.23%  13.83%  25.80%  18.87%  13.12%   9.08%   6.20%   3.75%   1.89%        8.95
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.23%   1.45%   5.99%  16.02%  19.92%  17.10%  13.93%  11.34%   8.42%   5.53%       10.07
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.17%   1.15%   3.81%   9.17%  12.67%  14.44%  14.87%  15.23%  14.89%  13.57%       10.96
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.08%   0.37%   1.64%   8.46%  13.41%  16.48%  16.76%  15.55%  14.49%  12.76%       11.05
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.29%   1.34%   5.31%   9.79%  13.13%  16.20%  18.36%  19.24%  16.28%       11.50
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.29%   1.38%   4.94%   8.38%  11.46%  14.09%  16.41%  19.73%  23.27%       11.75
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.23%   1.12%   4.09%   7.67%  10.79%  13.72%  16.38%  19.30%  26.67%       11.91
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  #8  
Old 01-28-2019, 01:49 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/27:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            59.10%  21.69%  10.31%   5.27%   2.35%   0.91%   0.30%   0.07%   0.01%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.74
VA Commonwealth     18.12%  33.30%  22.66%  14.53%   7.19%   2.85%   1.02%   0.30%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.74
George Mason        13.97%  24.95%  27.40%  18.46%   9.76%   3.90%   1.21%   0.33%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.03
Dayton               5.72%   9.53%  17.10%  24.05%  21.30%  12.98%   6.64%   2.21%   0.40%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.25
St Louis             2.36%   7.78%  14.86%  19.83%  22.59%  16.85%   9.97%   4.73%   0.87%   0.12%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.73
Duquesne             0.18%   1.09%   3.70%   8.15%  15.48%  23.33%  23.33%  17.86%   5.01%   1.37%   0.40%   0.08%   0.01%   0.00%        6.34
Rhode Island         0.40%   1.18%   2.80%   6.75%  13.67%  22.89%  27.08%  16.57%   6.21%   1.75%   0.53%   0.14%   0.03%   0.00%        6.47
St Bonaventure       0.15%   0.48%   1.16%   2.90%   7.24%  14.27%  22.45%  32.38%  12.55%   4.30%   1.51%   0.47%   0.13%   0.02%        7.34
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.25%   1.03%   4.01%  11.19%  27.53%  21.23%  15.28%  10.79%   6.08%   2.57%        9.98
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.09%   0.43%   1.65%   6.00%  16.59%  20.61%  19.14%  16.67%  13.10%   5.71%       10.79
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.43%   1.64%   4.92%  15.10%  20.11%  19.85%  17.60%  13.22%   7.06%       10.91
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.13%   0.60%   2.58%   9.31%  14.36%  17.99%  19.70%  19.07%  16.24%       11.63
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.49%   4.27%  11.27%  16.51%  20.80%  25.86%  20.74%       12.13
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.38%   2.05%   4.82%   8.76%  13.74%  22.52%  47.67%       12.91
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:33 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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Probabilities Through games of 1/30:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            61.17%  21.63%  10.08%   4.81%   1.54%   0.55%   0.17%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.67
VA Commonwealth     17.40%  35.28%  23.50%  15.02%   5.56%   2.14%   0.81%   0.26%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.67
George Mason        13.23%  26.18%  29.79%  17.44%   8.55%   3.56%   0.95%   0.25%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.98
Dayton               7.18%  11.82%  20.99%  28.48%  16.78%   9.14%   4.23%   1.22%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.87
Duquesne             0.42%   2.00%   6.88%  14.95%  27.41%  24.34%  14.26%   6.94%   2.12%   0.52%   0.12%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        5.49
St Louis             0.36%   2.20%   6.17%  12.11%  20.72%  23.51%  17.72%  11.66%   3.78%   1.24%   0.40%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%        5.86
Rhode Island         0.12%   0.47%   1.33%   3.64%   8.60%  18.63%  30.32%  22.90%   8.95%   3.25%   1.24%   0.45%   0.09%   0.01%        7.03
St Bonaventure       0.13%   0.43%   1.24%   3.43%  10.11%  14.92%  20.68%  27.21%  12.88%   5.57%   2.37%   0.84%   0.18%   0.02%        7.31
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.09%   0.42%   1.29%   3.49%   9.39%  21.21%  21.65%  19.46%  15.14%   6.70%   1.13%       10.16
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.17%   1.18%   4.43%  10.47%  20.88%  20.10%  17.52%  13.52%   8.75%   2.98%       10.22
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.11%   0.54%   1.87%   5.41%  13.38%  18.31%  20.30%  19.46%  15.88%   4.73%       10.93
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.13%   0.61%   2.80%  11.49%  18.21%  20.36%  21.07%  18.81%   6.52%       11.25
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.46%   1.35%   4.62%   9.76%  15.17%  22.40%  31.82%  14.34%       12.04
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.09%   0.47%   1.36%   3.06%   6.98%  17.76%  70.28%       13.51
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Old 01-31-2019, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/30:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            61.17%  21.63%  10.08%   4.81%   1.54%   0.55%   0.17%   0.05%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.67
VA Commonwealth     17.40%  35.28%  23.50%  15.02%   5.56%   2.14%   0.81%   0.26%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.67
George Mason        13.23%  26.18%  29.79%  17.44%   8.55%   3.56%   0.95%   0.25%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.98
Dayton               7.18%  11.82%  20.99%  28.48%  16.78%   9.14%   4.23%   1.22%   0.13%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.87
Duquesne             0.42%   2.00%   6.88%  14.95%  27.41%  24.34%  14.26%   6.94%   2.12%   0.52%   0.12%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        5.49
St Louis             0.36%   2.20%   6.17%  12.11%  20.72%  23.51%  17.72%  11.66%   3.78%   1.24%   0.40%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%        5.86
Rhode Island         0.12%   0.47%   1.33%   3.64%   8.60%  18.63%  30.32%  22.90%   8.95%   3.25%   1.24%   0.45%   0.09%   0.01%        7.03
St Bonaventure       0.13%   0.43%   1.24%   3.43%  10.11%  14.92%  20.68%  27.21%  12.88%   5.57%   2.37%   0.84%   0.18%   0.02%        7.31
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.09%   0.42%   1.29%   3.49%   9.39%  21.21%  21.65%  19.46%  15.14%   6.70%   1.13%       10.16
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.17%   1.18%   4.43%  10.47%  20.88%  20.10%  17.52%  13.52%   8.75%   2.98%       10.22
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.11%   0.54%   1.87%   5.41%  13.38%  18.31%  20.30%  19.46%  15.88%   4.73%       10.93
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.13%   0.61%   2.80%  11.49%  18.21%  20.36%  21.07%  18.81%   6.52%       11.25
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.46%   1.35%   4.62%   9.76%  15.17%  22.40%  31.82%  14.34%       12.04
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.09%   0.47%   1.36%   3.06%   6.98%  17.76%  70.28%       13.51
The top seed is Davidson's to lose. After all, their scheduling POD is: Fordham, Bonnies, Richmond and St Joes. Give me a break...
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Old 01-31-2019, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
The top seed is Davidson's to lose. After all, their scheduling POD is: Fordham, Bonnies, Richmond and St Joes. Give me a break...
And Rhody, which doesn’t look that good these days either
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Old 01-31-2019, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
The top seed is Davidson's to lose. After all, their scheduling POD is: Fordham, Bonnies, Richmond and St Joes. Give me a break...
Which is why the conference should have floating games assigned based on conference performance to finish the season, or better yet, set up a promotion/relegation system with two or three tiers based on NET performance from previous year(s). I like the latter idea a lot.
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Old 01-31-2019, 06:43 PM
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That's what grinds my gears about the A10 pod system. Davidson was clearly a top team going into this season and they get paired with Fordham. It does a disservice to Davidson and Fordham
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:09 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/2:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            69.76%  19.12%   7.35%   2.88%   0.65%   0.19%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.46
VA Commonwealth     18.23%  47.20%  20.95%   9.96%   2.53%   0.82%   0.24%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.35
George Mason         5.45%  20.15%  37.55%  21.77%   9.74%   3.58%   1.22%   0.40%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.29
Dayton               6.20%  10.89%  21.94%  33.73%  14.79%   7.76%   3.74%   0.80%   0.14%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.83
Duquesne             0.12%   1.10%   6.41%  15.17%  32.21%  20.61%  12.37%   7.63%   3.43%   0.79%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%        5.55
Rhode Island         0.18%   0.64%   1.93%   6.50%  14.94%  28.58%  26.68%  13.11%   5.17%   1.65%   0.50%   0.11%   0.02%   0.00%        6.41
St Louis             0.06%   0.79%   3.44%   7.99%  16.16%  21.30%  22.71%  16.42%   7.22%   2.72%   0.99%   0.18%   0.02%   0.00%        6.48
St Bonaventure       0.01%   0.09%   0.36%   1.59%   7.00%  11.01%  18.28%  26.48%  18.73%  10.19%   4.79%   1.24%   0.23%   0.01%        7.90
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.37%   1.49%   3.45%   7.19%  16.76%  26.73%  22.82%  15.04%   4.93%   1.01%   0.12%        9.22
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.29%   1.95%   5.06%  11.37%  20.72%  24.05%  20.71%  10.71%   4.05%   1.05%        9.90
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.19%   0.72%   2.23%   5.97%  13.13%  20.54%  20.87%  19.07%  13.32%   3.97%       10.79
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.54%   2.66%   9.00%  18.33%  27.67%  28.53%  13.13%       12.08
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.39%   1.58%   6.84%  15.02%  27.38%  32.50%  16.15%       12.29
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.38%   1.38%   3.60%   8.68%  20.32%  65.57%       13.44
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Old 02-03-2019, 05:22 PM
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Do I interpret this correctly? Flyers with a 72.76% change of finishing top 4?
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Old 02-03-2019, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Do I interpret this correctly? Flyers with a 72.76% change of finishing top 4?
Yes, you are correct.
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Old 02-03-2019, 10:46 PM
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These games will tell the tale . . .

Five games remaining against the 5,6, & 7 teams: Rhode Island, St Louis, and Duquesne.
Winning three out five makes a top four finish likely.

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Old 02-04-2019, 12:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Five games remaining against the 5,6, & 7 teams: Rhode Island, St Louis, and Duquesne.
Winning three out five makes a top four finish likely.

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That makes holding serve at home and stealing one on the road critical to getting the double-bye. Possible? Certainly. Easily attainable? Not quite. But if the focus from the last 15 minutes of Saturday’s game carries over to those 5 contests, then I like our chances.
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Old 02-04-2019, 12:13 PM
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Given everything that’s going on in St. Louis, I feel like a win against them Tuesday night could potentially break them. One at a time boys !

*Edit it to say Tuesday now instead of Wednesday as I was an idiot and didn’t look at the game thread prior to posting this* Posted via Mobile Device

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Old 02-04-2019, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Given everything that’s going on in St. Louis, I feel like a win against them Wednesday night could potentially break them. One at a time boys !
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SLU won't wilt. Tomorrow night will be a grind until the final buzzer. I'm really concerned about having to go into Chaifetz Arena to play a SLU team that's lost 4 in a row and has put themselves behind the proverbial 8 ball.
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Old 02-04-2019, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Given everything that’s going on in St. Louis, I feel like a win against them Wednesday night could potentially break them. One at a time boys !
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If you are planning on going to the game I would try to get there 24 hours earlier as the game is on Tuesday.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:09 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
If you are planning on going to the game I would try to get there 24 hours earlier as the game is on Tuesday.

*Tuesday*
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:12 PM
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I hate being dense but what are these numbers? They are percentage probabilities of what exactly?
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Never mind, I was reading the thread on my phone and it only displayed the 1st column.

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Old 02-04-2019, 02:27 PM
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They are percentages of what place each team is most likely to finish in the conference. Right now Davidson has a 70% chance of finishing first and an 89% chance of finishing first or second (Add 69.76 and 19.12) and and UD has a 6% chance of finishing in first. Right now we are expected to finish 4th with a 33% chance, which is our highest percentage.
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Old 02-04-2019, 02:57 PM
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If we can stay away from having to playing either Davidson or Duquesne until a potential final, I'm good with that.
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Old 02-04-2019, 04:54 PM
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Logic suggests I'd want the best seed as possible. Beyond that, I'd want to play a team with more depth, like Duquesne or VCU, earlier in the A10 tourney and a team with less depth (like a SLU) later on.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
If you are planning on going to the game I would try to get there 24 hours earlier as the game is on Tuesday.
Well, 22 hours earlier, anyway. It is a 9:00 PM EST tipoff on TUESDAY night.
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Old 02-04-2019, 08:49 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Logic suggests I'd want the best seed as possible. Beyond that, I'd want to play a team with more depth, like Duquesne or VCU, earlier in the A10 tourney and a team with less depth (like a SLU) later on.
Agreed, but with us only going 7+ deep, I definitely think “double bye” needs to be Objective #1.
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Old 02-04-2019, 11:33 PM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
They are percentages of what place each team is most likely to finish in the conference. Right now Davidson has a 70% chance of finishing first and an 89% chance of finishing first or second (Add 69.76 and 19.12) and and UD has a 6% chance of finishing in first. Right now we are expected to finish 4th with a 33% chance, which is our highest percentage.
thanks cj I am really not that dumb, on my phone I only saw the first column.
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Old 02-07-2019, 11:55 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/6:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            81.76%  15.20%   2.53%   0.42%   0.07%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.22
VA Commonwealth     15.50%  66.07%  12.57%   4.05%   1.28%   0.37%   0.14%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.11
George Mason         0.53%   8.70%  36.05%  24.27%  15.11%   8.52%   4.03%   1.89%   0.80%   0.10%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.01
Dayton               2.10%   6.52%  23.81%  28.49%  18.46%  10.93%   6.27%   2.66%   0.73%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.30
St Louis             0.07%   2.57%  14.76%  18.50%  20.26%  17.29%  13.27%   8.80%   3.31%   0.91%   0.23%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        5.34
Duquesne             0.01%   0.26%   5.77%  11.28%  17.63%  20.58%  18.18%  14.43%  10.16%   1.45%   0.22%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        6.26
Rhode Island         0.01%   0.34%   2.14%   6.50%  12.65%  19.89%  26.40%  20.42%   8.35%   2.39%   0.73%   0.16%   0.03%   0.01%        6.73
St Bonaventure       0.02%   0.31%   1.87%   5.04%  11.20%  15.63%  18.05%  23.30%  16.09%   5.66%   2.10%   0.62%   0.10%   0.00%        7.22
La Salle             0.00%   0.03%   0.50%   1.43%   3.18%   6.04%  10.97%  20.24%  33.59%  14.60%   6.59%   2.44%   0.39%   0.02%        8.53
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.27%   1.14%   3.46%  10.56%  23.27%  25.87%  21.41%  10.75%   3.22%       10.92
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.13%   0.40%   1.27%   3.44%   9.43%  21.76%  23.69%  22.17%  11.84%   5.86%       11.04
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.24%   1.09%   5.74%  22.59%  25.55%  25.13%  13.28%   6.32%       11.32
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.21%   1.01%   4.83%   9.84%  17.34%  40.00%  26.73%       12.70
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.22%   2.42%   5.18%  10.68%  23.62%  57.84%       13.28 
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:09 PM
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LIBob, I'm a numbers guy and really look forward to these updates. Thanks for taking the time to do this!
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Old 02-07-2019, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
LIBob, I'm a numbers guy and really look forward to these updates. Thanks for taking the time to do this!
A royal shoutout is definitely in order! Thanks LiBob!
So a win on Saturday and a win against St. Louis at home, VCU at home, and Duquesne on the road, are absolutely essential In terms of getting into the four spott. If we lose any other games we aren’t supposed to, then that game at Davidson becomes a must win. Does that sound about accurate? The Wildcats can probably wrap up the regular season championship by winning four out of their next five. I don’t see anybody else catching them at that point.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:12 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/10:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            49.74%  33.44%  12.96%   3.35%   0.42%   0.07%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.72
VA Commonwealth     41.38%  44.13%  10.66%   3.42%   0.34%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.77
Dayton               7.10%  12.93%  30.59%  32.96%  11.14%   3.82%   1.11%   0.30%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.46
George Mason         1.75%   8.72%  35.58%  30.00%  15.12%   6.55%   1.78%   0.42%   0.09%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.77
Duquesne             0.03%   0.43%   6.19%  16.15%  30.65%  23.45%  12.87%   6.40%   3.30%   0.47%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        5.54
St Louis             0.02%   0.31%   3.38%   9.64%  21.19%  23.06%  19.03%  13.43%   6.38%   2.46%   0.88%   0.21%   0.01%   0.00%        6.29
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.01%   0.45%   3.04%  12.52%  15.65%  17.36%  20.96%  15.91%   9.13%   3.25%   1.47%   0.24%   0.02%        7.50
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   0.84%   5.25%  18.68%  28.82%  23.64%  13.43%   6.16%   2.03%   0.80%   0.22%   0.03%        7.50
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   0.58%   3.13%   6.28%  11.06%  18.03%  27.59%  19.47%   8.94%   4.24%   0.53%   0.05%        8.77
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.16%   1.86%   6.24%  11.66%  19.71%  25.98%  16.26%  11.77%   5.00%   1.35%        9.90
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.27%   0.87%   2.82%   8.04%  20.94%  36.32%  19.63%   8.25%   2.81%       10.94
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   0.24%   0.75%   1.90%   4.06%   8.48%  16.47%  30.71%  24.32%  13.02%       11.92
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.33%   1.01%   5.07%  11.01%  19.34%  32.32%  30.86%       12.68
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.43%   1.85%   4.79%  11.83%  29.12%  51.86%       13.23 
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  #34  
Old 02-12-2019, 06:55 AM
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Keep fighting for those byes. That will be huge in Brooklyn.
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
Keep fighting for those byes. That will be huge in Brooklyn.
I don't believe any team will be able to win the A10 title without being in the top 4 in Brooklyn. The conference just isn't deep enough to win 4 games in 4 days. Top 4 is an absolute must and based on these probabilities the team has down well to be in that position.
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Old 02-12-2019, 01:02 PM
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Jabo published the combined A-10 records of the remaining opponents of the current top 5 in the standings:

Davidson 32-42
GMU 35-44
VCU 38-38
Duquesne 37-37
Dayton 41-33

If we win or even get a top 4 finish...we will have earned it!
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Old 02-12-2019, 01:42 PM
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We have the toughest road ahead, but our team always plays up to the competition. I like our chances! :-)
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Old 02-12-2019, 01:45 PM
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Davidson and VCU account for 16-4 of that. The rest are 25-29.
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Old 02-12-2019, 07:18 PM
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We get to play three of those teams and a couple solid middle of the pack teams as well. Some will look at it as hard, others as the best opportunity to get ahead. Looking forward to see if our Flyers have it in them.
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Old 02-12-2019, 10:46 PM
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Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer View Post
We get to play three of those teams and a couple solid middle of the pack teams as well. Some will look at it as hard, others as the best opportunity to get ahead. Looking forward to see if our Flyers have it in them.
100%.
Gut check time. We should have the energy the next 15 to 20 days for in season finish. Let's see how smart and effective we play on offense and defense.
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  #41  
Old 02-14-2019, 11:20 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/13:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            52.36%  33.87%  10.98%   2.51%   0.24%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.65
VA Commonwealth     40.13%  46.63%   9.87%   3.10%   0.24%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.77
Dayton               6.07%  10.86%  29.25%  37.24%  10.79%   3.75%   1.45%   0.46%   0.14%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.56
George Mason         1.43%   8.25%  41.21%  29.79%  11.92%   5.17%   1.86%   0.35%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.67
St Louis             0.01%   0.29%   4.58%  11.42%  23.96%  22.79%  17.81%  12.24%   5.95%   0.85%   0.09%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.02
Duquesne             0.00%   0.04%   2.71%   7.99%  19.04%  23.52%  21.79%  14.22%  10.23%   0.41%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.39
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.04%   1.15%   6.00%  23.11%  21.37%  17.48%  16.79%  12.63%   1.14%   0.22%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%        6.56
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.01%   0.10%   1.03%   5.92%  14.13%  24.41%  28.61%  18.10%   5.72%   1.40%   0.46%   0.10%   0.02%        7.61
La Salle             0.00%   0.02%   0.15%   0.94%   4.77%   9.07%  14.25%  21.63%  34.56%  10.86%   3.03%   0.70%   0.03%   0.00%        8.17
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.50%   3.72%  10.48%  34.02%  22.27%  17.56%   8.72%   2.70%       10.75
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.33%   1.38%   5.44%  30.12%  36.85%  17.26%   6.50%   2.04%       10.89
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.11%   0.46%   1.49%   6.72%  17.10%  30.43%  27.33%  16.35%       12.22
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.12%   0.77%   7.77%  13.59%  21.23%  30.05%  26.49%       12.51
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.18%   2.38%   5.42%  12.30%  27.28%  52.42%       13.21
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  #42  
Old 02-14-2019, 03:15 PM
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Odds of a top four finish went up thanks to Duquesne losing at LaSalle.
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Old 02-14-2019, 11:41 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Odds of a top four finish went up thanks to Duquesne losing at LaSalle.

Any idea what the magic win number is to get to the fourth spot now? Four?
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
Any idea what the magic win number is to get to the fourth spot now? Four?
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5 wins means we’ll finish with no worse than a 13-5 record in-con. And, since the teams that are tied for 5th (SLU & Duquesne) already have 5 losses, that will almost get us there. But we need for those 5 extra wins to include a victory over SLU here and a win at Duquesne in March. Then, we’d be solidly in the Top 4.
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  #45  
Old 02-15-2019, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
5 wins means we’ll finish with no worse than a 13-5 record in-con. And, since the teams that are tied for 5th (SLU & Duquesne) already have 5 losses, that will almost get us there. But we need for those 5 extra wins to include a victory over SLU here and a win at Duquesne in March. Then, we’d be solidly in the Top 4.
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I see most likely a 5-2 finish, with the losses probably on the road at Davidson and the Dukes.

SLU still plays on the road vs us and VCU and tough home games remaining with the Dukes and George Mason.

The Dukes still have several tough road games with GMason, the Bonnies and SLU.

Looking at their schedules, I think ANY combination of a 5-2 finish for UD gets a bye. I think 12-6 still probably gets it done too, particularly if one of those wins is against SLU or the Dukes.
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I see most likely a 5-2 finish, with the losses probably on the road at Davidson and the Dukes.

SLU still plays on the road vs us and VCU and tough home games remaining with the Dukes and George Mason.

The Dukes still have several tough road games with GMason, the Bonnies and SLU.

Looking at their schedules, I think ANY combination of a 5-2 finish for UD gets a bye. I think 12-6 still probably gets it done too, particularly if one of those wins is against SLU or the Dukes.
Good analysis, SLUFLYER. My statement was based on the almost-worst-case scenario of the Bills and the Dukes winning every game where their opponent is not UD. Chances are, 4 wins will be enough, if they’re the “right” 4 wins. But if that 4-3 includes losses to SLU and/or Duquesne, then it might be breath-holding time.
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  #47  
Old 02-15-2019, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Good analysis, SLUFLYER. My statement was based on the almost-worst-case scenario of the Bills and the Dukes winning every game where their opponent is not UD. Chances are, 4 wins will be enough, if they’re the “right” 4 wins. But if that 4-3 includes losses to SLU and/or Duquesne, then it might be breath-holding time.
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Yeah, if we were to drop both to SLU and then the 2nd one with Duquesne, I start to get worried about tie breakers, which we'd lose out to SLU and then probably go to best win in the standings between us and Duquesne, since we split. If we could steal one @ Davidson, a loss to Duquesne probably wouldn't be as big of a deal.
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Old 02-18-2019, 12:36 PM
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As of 2/18/2019, UD can finish no worse than 12th.
One win locks 9th.
Two wins could leave UD in 9th, but a lot of crazy stuff would need to happen and it depends on who those wins are against.
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Old 02-18-2019, 01:11 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/17:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     55.29%  43.83%   0.76%   0.11%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.46
Davidson            44.46%  44.69%   9.85%   0.86%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.68
Dayton               0.19%   9.83%  33.94%  31.87%  14.16%   6.43%   2.73%   0.71%   0.13%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.85
George Mason         0.05%   1.23%  35.81%  26.49%  18.21%  11.60%   6.14%   0.45%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.23
St Louis             0.01%   0.27%   9.89%  15.98%  20.78%  26.06%  19.77%   5.77%   1.39%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.52
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.10%   4.18%  13.73%  27.38%  24.40%  17.61%   8.97%   3.48%   0.14%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.79
Duquesne             0.00%   0.05%   5.49%  10.53%  17.34%  23.73%  28.92%  10.78%   3.13%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.05
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   0.37%   1.44%   4.97%  13.42%  27.63%  35.43%  11.72%   3.87%   0.99%   0.09%   0.00%        8.45
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.54%   2.74%  10.75%  35.98%  30.01%  12.74%   4.73%   1.81%   0.49%   0.14%        8.62
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.17%   6.50%  14.27%  27.10%  20.51%  15.77%  10.32%   5.36%       10.77
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.45%   2.26%   7.35%  28.47%  33.25%  17.51%   7.89%   2.75%       10.89
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.40%   1.52%   7.64%  13.24%  22.52%  29.28%  25.40%       12.45
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.35%   1.30%   4.59%  12.77%  24.02%  26.92%  30.03%       12.60
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.20%   1.96%   7.50%  11.62%  17.38%  25.00%  36.32%       12.64
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:08 AM
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Any chance you can update this LI? Thanks!
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  #51  
Old 02-21-2019, 08:21 AM
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Nice to see we were in 3rd, even after the VCU loss. The guys will need to keep winning, though, to stay out of a tiebreaker with George Mason.
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  #52  
Old 02-21-2019, 09:47 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/20:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     81.26%  18.15%   0.49%   0.09%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.19
Davidson            18.43%  49.57%  29.11%   2.47%   0.37%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Dayton               0.24%  29.68%  37.47%  23.05%   6.86%   1.97%   0.60%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.16
George Mason         0.05%   1.85%  21.84%  30.99%  21.68%  14.80%   8.32%   0.44%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.52
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.18%   2.00%  18.34%  30.65%  26.53%  17.69%   4.07%   0.53%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.53
St Louis             0.01%   0.44%   5.65%  15.20%  22.46%  28.53%  21.96%   4.73%   0.95%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.63
Duquesne             0.00%   0.13%   3.44%   9.80%  17.64%  25.56%  32.86%   8.47%   2.06%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.08
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.12%   1.08%   8.30%  38.22%  29.74%  13.50%   5.43%   2.82%   0.65%   0.12%        8.77
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   0.18%   1.39%   9.23%  30.04%  36.63%  14.08%   5.94%   2.28%   0.17%   0.00%        8.80
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.10%   0.81%   4.39%  11.97%  37.78%  34.45%   8.24%   2.06%   0.19%       10.34
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.19%   8.54%  14.64%  23.09%  18.66%  20.80%   9.98%   4.11%       10.74
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.89%   2.78%   8.07%  24.22%  37.24%  22.95%   3.82%       11.78
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.27%   1.54%   8.52%  22.47%  41.35%  25.78%       12.80
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.40%   1.84%   2.78%   6.15%  22.83%  65.99%       13.47
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  #53  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/20:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     81.26%  18.15%   0.49%   0.09%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.19
Davidson            18.43%  49.57%  29.11%   2.47%   0.37%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.17
Dayton               0.24%  29.68%  37.47%  23.05%   6.86%   1.97%   0.60%   0.12%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.16
George Mason         0.05%   1.85%  21.84%  30.99%  21.68%  14.80%   8.32%   0.44%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.52
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.18%   2.00%  18.34%  30.65%  26.53%  17.69%   4.07%   0.53%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.53
St Louis             0.01%   0.44%   5.65%  15.20%  22.46%  28.53%  21.96%   4.73%   0.95%   0.07%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.63
Duquesne             0.00%   0.13%   3.44%   9.80%  17.64%  25.56%  32.86%   8.47%   2.06%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.08
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.12%   1.08%   8.30%  38.22%  29.74%  13.50%   5.43%   2.82%   0.65%   0.12%        8.77
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.06%   0.18%   1.39%   9.23%  30.04%  36.63%  14.08%   5.94%   2.28%   0.17%   0.00%        8.80
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.10%   0.81%   4.39%  11.97%  37.78%  34.45%   8.24%   2.06%   0.19%       10.34
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.19%   8.54%  14.64%  23.09%  18.66%  20.80%   9.98%   4.11%       10.74
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.89%   2.78%   8.07%  24.22%  37.24%  22.95%   3.82%       11.78
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.07%   0.27%   1.54%   8.52%  22.47%  41.35%  25.78%       12.80
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.40%   1.84%   2.78%   6.15%  22.83%  65.99%       13.47
Wow, we're at 90% probability to finish in the top 4? I wouldn't have thought it would be that high with still 5 games to go and just a one game lead on SLU, Dukes and St.B.

I've not analyzed enough of the remaining schedule to see what's driving that, perhaps some head to head matchups between those 5 and 6 loss teams that is a big hurdle for those teams to climb the standings (summary, they're all going to lose another game or two, most likely)
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:13 AM
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One week ago Davidson was 52% to win it. Now they are 18%, after one win and one loss. Huh?
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:25 AM
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they no longer hold the tie breaker over VCU, and VCU won at Dayton, I'll assume a game the ratings system thought they would likely lose, while Davidson lost at home to Dayton, a game I'll assume the rating system thought Davidson would win.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
they no longer hold the tie breaker over VCU, and VCU won at Dayton, I'll assume a game the ratings system thought they would likely lose, while Davidson lost at home to Dayton, a game I'll assume the rating system thought Davidson would win.
They do still hold the tiebreaker over VCU due to their head-to-head victory against them.

Yes, the loss to Dayton hurt. Davidson had a 64% probability of winning that game going in. Also, VCU's blowout of Rhode Island increased their win probabilities in all their remaining games.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:19 PM
DGO67 DGO67 is offline
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Just a guess based on this thread that at this point, the Flyers have a 25% chance to dance.
Does that sound optimistic or pessimistic?
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Wow, we're at 90% probability to finish in the top 4? I wouldn't have thought it would be that high with still 5 games to go and just a one game lead on SLU, Dukes and St.B.

I've not analyzed enough of the remaining schedule to see what's driving that, perhaps some head to head matchups between those 5 and 6 loss teams that is a big hurdle for those teams to climb the standings (summary, they're all going to lose another game or two, most likely)
Remaining games of 5 teams battling for the last 2 double byes
UD:
SLU (73%)
@Umass (80%)
URI (80%)
Lasalle (88%)
@Duquesne (63%)

GM:
Duquesne (62%)
Richmond (74%)
@SLU (31%)
VCU (26%)
@GW (68%)

StB:
@Fordham (60%)
Duquesne (61%)
@GW (65%)
@Davidson (18%)
SLU (52%)

SLU:
@UD (27%)
@VCU (16%)
GM (69%)
Duquesne (71%)
@StB (48%)

Duquesne:
@GM (38%)
@StB (39%)
UMass (76%)
@SLU (29%)
UD (37%)
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  #59  
Old 02-21-2019, 12:58 PM
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Looking at it from 30,000 feet up, we are in very good shape. If we play defense like we showed at Davidson, we can do this. We are looking at 20 or 21 wins as a mid-level forecast.
If LiBob's % is even close, we are playing with house money compared the other contenders.
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
Just a guess based on this thread that at this point, the Flyers have a 25% chance to dance.
Does that sound optimistic or pessimistic?
I'll take a shot.

At large consideration: best possible record is 24-10. Would require seven more consecutive final followed by a loss on Selection Sunday. In that scenario, would they get an at-large bid?

I wouldn't bet my house on it. I'd give it 20%

Less wins than that = Not In Tournament IMO.

Odds of a 7-1 finish? Maybe 20%? So 20% x 20% = 4% chance of an at-large bid.

Odds of winning the conference tournament?

Assuming a double bye which is 90% right now, and assuming an 85% chance of winning the first game, 50% for the second, and 45% for the third, that equals (.85x.50x.45 = 19.1%).

Add 19.1% (Win tournament) + 4% (at-large) = 23.1%.

I'd say 25% is a pretty good guess if you buy my numbers above.
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  #61  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:36 PM
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UD getting 80% to win at UMass seems to ignore everything we know about UD playing at UMass
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
They do still hold the tiebreaker over VCU due to their head-to-head victory against them.

Yes, the loss to Dayton hurt. Davidson had a 64% probability of winning that game going in. Also, VCU's blowout of Rhode Island increased their win probabilities in all their remaining games.

Well they do hold the tiebreaker, guess I was saying its no longer currently in play, VCU wins out, they get the 1 seed.


Honestly, seems like the 1 seed is cursed in the A10, I recall far too many 8-1 upsets.
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:43 PM
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sure would be nice to win the next 4 and head to Pitt with a shot to clinch the 2 seed with a win. Got a feeling Davidson still has another loss or two in them.
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:48 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
If we play defense like we showed at Davidson, we can do this.
Which half?
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:56 PM
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Assuming #2 or #3 seed, beat St. Bonnies/Dukes/St.Louis, Beat Davidson, and beat VCU (hoping they get upset and it is somebody else in the Finals). I love this path to a NCAA bid. Yes only a 20% chance to get there, but the only team that scares me is VCU. I think Dayton matches-up best versus Davidson out of VCU, Davidson, and George Mason for a potential semi-final game.
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86 View Post
UD getting 80% to win at UMass seems to ignore everything we know about UD playing at UMass
That was pre-Obi. The game has changed!
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Old 02-21-2019, 04:47 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
I'll take a shot.

At large consideration: best possible record is 24-10. Would require seven more consecutive final followed by a loss on Selection Sunday. In that scenario, would they get an at-large bid?

I wouldn't bet my house on it. I'd give it 20%

Less wins than that = Not In Tournament IMO.

Odds of a 7-1 finish? Maybe 20%? So 20% x 20% = 4% chance of an at-large bid.

Odds of winning the conference tournament?

Assuming a double bye which is 90% right now, and assuming an 85% chance of winning the first game, 50% for the second, and 45% for the third, that equals (.85x.50x.45 = 19.1%).

Add 19.1% (Win tournament) + 4% (at-large) = 23.1%.

I'd say 25% is a pretty good guess if you buy my numbers above.
I like your analysis if you use the win probabilities listed above your post and your win probabilities for the tournanment chance of going 7-1 are about 6% and our chance of an at large is 1.2%
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Old 02-21-2019, 05:17 PM
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So if you are going for the A10 tourney championship, would you rather play VCU on Saturday or on Sunday in the championship? On Saturday the team would be fresher but obviously the Sunday championship game is the goal.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
So if you are going for the A10 tourney championship, would you rather play VCU on Saturday or on Sunday in the championship? On Saturday the team would be fresher but obviously the Sunday championship game is the goal.
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Assuming you're talking about projected A10 bracket, I say Sunday. Keep VCU on the opposite side of the bracket and perhaps someone knocks them off.

In reality, a semifinal against VCU or Davidson will be a grind, of which we've shown we're up to the task and will compete enough to give ourselves a decent shot at victory.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Which half?
Good defense in he first 34 minutes of the game. Then the offense went AWOL and dished up easy buckets to Davidson. You can't turn the ball over at mid-court and expect to stop anything.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
Good defense in he first 34 minutes of the game. Then the offense went AWOL and dished up easy buckets to Davidson. You can't turn the ball over at mid-court and expect to stop anything.
I'll concede the first 30 minutes. But they scored on every single possession in the last 9:38 of the game. Yes, they did get a game tying dunk on a sloppy turnover at half court, but the other 14 possessions of the last 10 minutes of the game were half court possessions where our guards couldn't move laterally to stop penetration and our bigs were too slow in their reads or help adjustments. Plus the 2 or 3 offensive rebounds that Davidson got that led to easy layups.
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Old 02-21-2019, 06:41 PM
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I would not want VCU until the finals. My dream would be,
1. VCU
2. UD
3. GM
4. Davidson.
5. SLU
6. Duquesne
7. Rhode Island
8. Bona

We can all dream right?
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Old 02-21-2019, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I'll concede the first 30 minutes. But they scored on every single possession in the last 9:38 of the game. Yes, they did get a game tying dunk on a sloppy turnover at half court, but the other 14 possessions of the last 10 minutes of the game were half court possessions where our guards couldn't move laterally to stop penetration and our bigs were too slow in their reads or help adjustments. Plus the 2 or 3 offensive rebounds that Davidson got that led to easy layups.
For 34 minutes we still held a double digit lead. Then as the announcers pointed out, we stopped running the offense like we were trying not to lose, instead of playing to win. Then came some untimely turnovers and missed threes. The whole atmosphere changed. It was not just the defense that had done their job for 34 minutes, or more.

Certainly fatigue was setting in on both sides of the ball.
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Old 02-21-2019, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
For 34 minutes we still held a double digit lead. Then as the announcers pointed out, we stopped running the offense like we were trying not to lose, instead of playing to win. Then came some untimely turnovers and missed threes. The whole atmosphere changed. It was not just the defense that had done their job for 34 minutes, or more.

Certainly fatigue was setting in on both sides of the ball.
Not buying the turnovers piece of your argument. Other than the steal and dunk by Grady with a minute to play, Dayton had one turnover in the last 10 minutes and it was a questionable illegal screen by Toppin.
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Not buying the turnovers piece of your argument. Other than the steal and dunk by Grady with a minute to play, Dayton had one turnover in the last 10 minutes and it was a questionable illegal screen by Toppin.
8:59 TO Crutcher
4:55 TO Toppin (the ref disagrees)
1:13 TO Crutcher

But we are a lot closer to agreeing.
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:39 PM
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I'd rather get VCU earlier. It's gonna be easier to beat them on fresh legs

Their defense is gonna make it hard for a weaker A10 team to upset them even if they have an off night shooting.
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Old 02-21-2019, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer View Post
I'd rather get VCU earlier. It's gonna be easier to beat them on fresh legs

Their defense is gonna make it hard for a weaker A10 team to upset them even if they have an off night shooting.
That’s what I think too.
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Old 02-21-2019, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
8:59 TO Crutcher
4:55 TO Toppin (the ref disagrees)
1:13 TO Crutcher

But we are a lot closer to agreeing.
8:59 in the play by play from ESPN.com suggests a Jalen Crutcher foul, which was not an offensive foul/TO since it coincided with two (2) Gudmundson free throws also at 8:59, which also happened 4 seconds AFTER a Davidson offensive rebound at 9:03.

Just watched the replay. There was not anything resembling a Dayton or Crutcher TO at the 8:59 mark. Davidson missed a contested/blocked layup, got his own rebound, kicked it out and then Crutcher fouled him on the drive.

Turnovers were not an issue the last 10 minutes of the game.

Going to watch to see what offensive possessions were questionable.

One empty possession was Toppin missing front end of one and one
Another was a Crutcher floater, wide open from 8 feet, after what appeared to be a Crutcher push off on the wing
The other was a Mikesell three attempt after a kick out from Crutcher after he got into the paint (03 seconds on shot)
Next possession was a Crutcher WIDE OPEN three on a Toppin kick out, with ALL the time in the world to set up that he missed
Toppin offensive foul was next
Next possession was poor. Didn’t attack until less than 10 on shot, ball knocked out, ended up with a off balance Crutcher floater as shot was expiring
Next possession was made triple by JD
Next possession Toppin got fouled and made free throws
Next possession was poor, after ball got tipped into the back court with about 12 on the shot and then missed a JD floater with about 6 on shot
Next possession was steal and dunk

Summary: There weren’t too many possessions that ended in a low quality shot and only two, maybe a third on Mikesell’s three, where the offense didn’t get into a flow or just waited too long. I’ll stand by my observation that giving up points on 15 straight possessions to end the game was by far the dominating factor of the Davidson run and had very little to do with not running our offense or committing turnovers.

If you have access to the DVR of the game, I’d encourage you to watch that stretch again. I think you’ll get a different or refreshed perspective. Only took me about 15/20 minutes to forward thru the possessions

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 02-21-2019 at 11:14 PM..
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:00 PM
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St. Joes would be the lower seed that I'd want to stay away from. They seem like the team with a losing record that's most capable of beating someone.

I think Davidson if they end up as the 2 seed would be about the ideal team to play assume everything is chalk. They don't play many people either so tired legs might be a wash and they're more a jump shooting team
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:12 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
That’s what I think too.
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Yes, but a Top 4 finish means we’re only getting VCU in the semis or the finals. Se we’d either be taking them out in the semis or someone else knocking them out in the quarters or semis.
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
So if you are going for the A10 tourney championship, would you rather play VCU on Saturday or on Sunday in the championship? On Saturday the team would be fresher but obviously the Sunday championship game is the goal.
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Championship game is the one to get to. VCU is going to do VCU regardless of if we play them on Sunday or Saturday. They are tough either way. Every other top 4 seeded team is going to be just as exponentially tired or not tired as the other 3.

If this team makes it to Sunday, at large hopes aren't totally out the window. Get beat by anyone on Saturday and is't almost definitely a no go based on record, conference strength, and overall body of work. Not taking away from a pretty good season given the situation they are in.

Here's the thing...you get VCU on Saturday and possibly beat them...you then get to finals and possibly lose to who knows. That doesn't look good no matter who you beat on Saturday.

Give yourself a chance at beating the #1 seed in the championship game. That's where it's at and that is what is best for the program. Not getting beat on Saturday.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:48 AM
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VCU Finals. Probably a 50% chance they loss in quarters or semis. Hoping they get knocked out before the finals. VCU is hoping the same thing about Dayton.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
8:59 in the play by play from ESPN.com suggests a Jalen Crutcher foul, which was not an offensive foul/TO since it coincided with two (2) Gudmundson free throws also at 8:59, which also happened 4 seconds AFTER a Davidson offensive rebound at 9:03.

Just watched the replay. There was not anything resembling a Dayton or Crutcher TO at the 8:59 mark. Davidson missed a contested/blocked layup, got his own rebound, kicked it out and then Crutcher fouled him on the drive.

Turnovers were not an issue the last 10 minutes of the game.

Going to watch to see what offensive possessions were questionable.

One empty possession was Toppin missing front end of one and one
Another was a Crutcher floater, wide open from 8 feet, after what appeared to be a Crutcher push off on the wing
The other was a Mikesell three attempt after a kick out from Crutcher after he got into the paint (03 seconds on shot)
Next possession was a Crutcher WIDE OPEN three on a Toppin kick out, with ALL the time in the world to set up that he missed
Toppin offensive foul was next
Next possession was poor. Didn’t attack until less than 10 on shot, ball knocked out, ended up with a off balance Crutcher floater as shot was expiring
Next possession was made triple by JD
Next possession Toppin got fouled and made free throws
Next possession was poor, after ball got tipped into the back court with about 12 on the shot and then missed a JD floater with about 6 on shot
Next possession was steal and dunk

Summary: There weren’t too many possessions that ended in a low quality shot and only two, maybe a third on Mikesell’s three, where the offense didn’t get into a flow or just waited too long. I’ll stand by my observation that giving up points on 15 straight possessions to end the game was by far the dominating factor of the Davidson run and had very little to do with not running our offense or committing turnovers.

If you have access to the DVR of the game, I’d encourage you to watch that stretch again. I think you’ll get a different or refreshed perspective. Only took me about 15/20 minutes to forward thru the possessions
I always watch the replays of tv games, and usually the questionable or controversial plays in slow mo. My summary of the TO's was from the official scorers accounting of the game.
What I saw and recorded was our offense scored at almost 2 points per minute until the 8 minute mark. Then we went into what the announcer's referred to "try not to lose offense" and scored a point a minute. It looked like the dreaded "Tampa 2" defense in the NFL, only it was on offense.

Our offense was good for 32 minutes, and our defense was good for 35 minutes. Both WAY MORE than the "which half" you referred to. And in those closing minutes, both were partially capable and equally culpable if we are playing the blame game.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I always watch the replays of tv games, and usually the questionable or controversial plays in slow mo. My summary of the TO's was from the official scorers accounting of the game.
What I saw and recorded was our offense scored at almost 2 points per minute until the 8 minute mark. Then we went into what the announcer's referred to "try not to lose offense" and scored a point a minute. It looked like the dreaded "Tampa 2" defense in the NFL, only it was on offense.

Our offense was good for 32 minutes, and our defense was good for 35 minutes. Both WAY MORE than the "which half" you referred to. And in those closing minutes, both were partially capable and equally culpable if we are playing the blame game.
I guess I'm concerned that the official scorer's account isn't accurate!! Or are you referring to ESPN's play-by-play?
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:01 PM
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Why do some say UD will have tired legs on Sunday of A-10 Tourney.....but VCU won't?
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
I always watch the replays of tv games, and usually the questionable or controversial plays in slow mo. My summary of the TO's was from the official scorers accounting of the game.
What I saw and recorded was our offense scored at almost 2 points per minute until the 8 minute mark. Then we went into what the announcer's referred to "try not to lose offense" and scored a point a minute. It looked like the dreaded "Tampa 2" defense in the NFL, only it was on offense.

Our offense was good for 32 minutes, and our defense was good for 35 minutes. Both WAY MORE than the "which half" you referred to. And in those closing minutes, both were partially capable and equally culpable if we are playing the blame game.
I was at the game, and thinking, the good thing is we have not stopped running our offense and we are not slowing it down. I hate that slowdown crap. So what happened? Davidson turned up their intensity and defense. They stopped letting us get the ball inside, even doubling Obi before he got the ball. We ran the same offense, with not the earlier results.

We saw a similar thing Sat against VCU. Desperate teams play much harder.
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Old 02-22-2019, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66 View Post
Why do some say UD will have tired legs on Sunday of A-10 Tourney.....but VCU won't?
The thinking is probably that VCU's rotation is deeper, as it appears to be a 10 or 11 man rotation, thus will have fresher legs than our 7 guys.
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
The thinking is probably that VCU's rotation is deeper, as it appears to be a 10 or 11 man rotation, thus will have fresher legs than our 7 guys.
Using season averages, our top 6 will play 362 minutes in the Friday/Saturday games, while VCU's top 6 will play 283 minutes. So VCU's guys will be an average of 13 minutes less tired than UD's going into Sunday's game.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:13 PM
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.....and how did that work for Schoochie, Pollard etc when they had 6 man scholarship rotation?

Hope this short manned 2019 squad has the same results.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:19 PM
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Originally Posted by SoTier Flyer View Post
Using season averages, our top 6 will play 362 minutes in the Friday/Saturday games, while VCU's top 6 will play 283 minutes. So VCU's guys will be an average of 13 minutes less tired than UD's going into Sunday's game.
it's a state of mind
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:24 PM
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I'm in the play VCU on Sunday camp. We've seen VCU with fresh legs. The havoc defense relies on fresh legs. It's a high energy defense, and it is the biggest advantage for VCU. Our Flyers are an excellent ball movement team. Put us up against a team with tired legs, and the advantage should shift to UD. I like the Sunday match up.
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Old 02-22-2019, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Piqua Flyer '66 View Post
.....and how did that work for Schoochie, Pollard etc when they had 6 man scholarship rotation?

Hope this short manned 2019 squad has the same results.
Not well. We won no A10 tourneys with that bunch, and I think that is what this discussion focuses on.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
I'm in the play VCU on Sunday camp. We've seen VCU with fresh legs. The havoc defense relies on fresh legs. It's a high energy defense, and it is the biggest advantage for VCU. Our Flyers are an excellent ball movement team. Put us up against a team with tired legs, and the advantage should shift to UD. I like the Sunday match up.

Exactly.
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
I'm in the play VCU on Sunday camp. We've seen VCU with fresh legs. The havoc defense relies on fresh legs. It's a high energy defense, and it is the biggest advantage for VCU. Our Flyers are an excellent ball movement team. Put us up against a team with tired legs, and the advantage should shift to UD. I like the Sunday match up.
I think the fear is that VCU can empty their bench in the run up to Sunday to save some of those guys
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Old 02-22-2019, 04:14 PM
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My dream is we get to the Finals of the A10, and I don't care who we play. I don't think our team fears VCU, especially in view of the overtime game in their arena, and the 22 point come back in ours. It would be another made-for-tv rematch.
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
My dream is we get to the Finals of the A10, and I don't care who we play. I don't think our team fears VCU, especially in view of the overtime game in their arena, and the 22 point come back in ours. It would be another made-for-tv rematch.

For what it’s worth, Joey brackets has us as the eighth team out of the tournament. Davidson is “in consideration. “I’m shocked we are that high. Granted, I think that’s about our ceiling at this point.
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
For what it’s worth, Joey brackets has us as the eighth team out of the tournament. Davidson is “in consideration. “I’m shocked we are that high. Granted, I think that’s about our ceiling at this point.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

I didn't see that. Here's what I see on his ESPN sight, showing last update of today. Last 8 are: Clemson, Belmont, Utah St., Lipscomb, San Fran, St. Mary's, South Carolina and Georgetown.

You have a different link?
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Old 02-22-2019, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

I didn't see that. Here's what I see on his ESPN sight, showing last update of today. Last 8 are: Clemson, Belmont, Utah St., Lipscomb, San Fran, St. Mary's, South Carolina and Georgetown.

You have a different link?

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1099052330610126848?s=21
Just released a few minutes ago.
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Old 02-23-2019, 12:06 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
The thinking is probably that VCU's rotation is deeper, as it appears to be a 10 or 11 man rotation, thus will have fresher legs than our 7 guys.
It's still exponential. If we play them on Friday we have 7-8 guys at 100% and they have 10 at 100%.

We play Saturday our 8 vs their 10 and everyone is at 90%. We play Saturday it is their 75% vs our 75%.

Tired legs and deciding who to play when is simply setting the stage for excuses when a team loses. If you want to win you beat whoever the opponent is on whatever stage. These guys go 2-3 hours per day in practice. You go harder in practice for longer periods than in a game. You don't have media timeouts every 4 minutes, stoppages in play, etc.

The same argument can be said for average minutes against any and all opponents after 20 games of a season.

The only way conditioning and "legs" comes into play is if a team played multiple games in a short period of time and go up against a team that has had a week rest.

You all should be more concerned with the fact they can throw 10 bodies at us for 40 minutes versus how many minutes were played the day before.

This team has shown they can beat anyone on any given day. I don't expect Brooklyn to be any different and if they bring what they are capable of, and just brought at Davidson, they can beat anyone in the conference.

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Old 02-23-2019, 12:51 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post
It's still exponential. If we play them on Friday we have 7-8 guys at 100% and they have 10 at 100%.

We play Saturday our 8 vs their 10 and everyone is at 90%. We play Saturday it is their 75% vs our 75%.

Tired legs and deciding who to play when is simply setting the stage for excuses when a team loses. If you want to win you beat whoever the opponent is on whatever stage. These guys go 2-3 hours per day in practice. You go harder in practice for longer periods than in a game. You don't have media timeouts every 4 minutes, stoppages in play, etc.

The same argument can be said for average minutes against any and all opponents after 20 games of a season.

The only way conditioning and "legs" comes into play is if a team played multiple games in a short period of time and go up against a team that has had a week rest.

You all should be more concerned with the fact they can throw 10 bodies at us for 40 minutes versus how many minutes were played the day before.

This team has shown they can beat anyone on any given day. I don't expect Brooklyn to be any different and if they bring what they are capable of, and just brought at Davidson, they can beat anyone in the conference.
So you’re saying no disadvantage at all for Flyers only being 7 deep? Especially if you have to play 3 days in a row?
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