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  #101  
Old 02-23-2019, 09:41 AM
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Originally Posted by shocka43 View Post

This team has shown they can beat anyone on any given day. I don't expect Brooklyn to be any different and if they bring what they are capable of, and just brought at Davidson, they can beat anyone in the conference.
Originally Posted by 312to937 View Post
So you’re saying no disadvantage at all for Flyers only being 7 deep? Especially if you have to play 3 days in a row?
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I do think it is different when any given day comes the day after another any given day which came after another any given day.
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  #102  
Old 02-23-2019, 09:31 PM
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Originally Posted by 312to937 View Post
So you’re saying no disadvantage at all for Flyers only being 7 deep? Especially if you have to play 3 days in a row?
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Never said that. They are at a disadvantage if we play them on Friday. They are at a disadvantage Saturday. They are at a disadvantage Sunday.

I said exponentially, teams are just as tired as the others as the weekend progresses.

But...if the loss happens I know exactly who will come out of the woodwork blaming tired legs.
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  #103  
Old 02-23-2019, 10:47 PM
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If we are fortunate enough to get an NCAA berth, I truly believe that this team could surprise on the upside. The teams outside of the A-10 don't know much about Obi and the rest of the team. Also, we tend to "play up" or "play down" to the level of competition. Look how well we played Virginia.
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  #104  
Old 02-24-2019, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by TommyGola View Post
If we are fortunate enough to get an NCAA berth, I truly believe that this team could surprise on the upside. The teams outside of the A-10 don't know much about Obi and the rest of the team. Also, we tend to "play up" or "play down" to the level of competition. Look how well we played Virginia.
Or how bad we played Tulsa, OK and Auburn.
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  #105  
Old 02-24-2019, 01:19 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/23:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     75.03%  24.61%   0.35%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.25
Davidson            24.77%  48.78%  25.96%   0.45%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.02
Dayton               0.20%  26.47%  60.15%   9.36%   2.72%   0.90%   0.20%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.91
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.06%   2.01%  35.52%  28.99%  19.46%  13.67%   0.30%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.08
Duquesne             0.00%   0.05%   6.09%  20.76%  26.87%  24.81%  20.84%   0.55%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.35
George Mason         0.00%   0.03%   4.62%  17.51%  25.14%  28.74%  22.77%   1.18%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.51
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.82%  16.39%  16.21%  25.63%  35.55%   4.59%   0.77%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.96
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   2.59%  43.69%  25.66%  13.83%   8.41%   4.29%   1.33%   0.17%        9.01
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   1.00%  24.71%  35.61%  22.11%  12.24%   4.17%   0.07%   0.00%        9.32
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.35%   3.35%  15.74%  24.44%  39.38%  14.13%   2.36%   0.21%   0.00%        9.52
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   8.07%   9.44%  13.40%  23.26%  26.99%  13.24%   5.56%       11.14
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.08%   3.11%   8.69%  31.29%  34.75%  16.47%   4.62%       11.63
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   0.89%   2.20%   4.07%  12.57%  37.81%  42.37%       13.11
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.34%   6.61%  14.86%  30.87%  47.27%       13.18
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  #106  
Old 02-24-2019, 01:34 PM
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Mathematically:
  • VCU has .02% chance of missing out on a top 4 spot.
  • Davidson has a 1.98% chance of missing on a top 4 spot.
  • Dayton is third with 21.7% chance of missing on a top 4 spot.

Usually this means losses and combinations of tie breakers. But, the 2 losses to VCU basically puts us 3 games out of first place which accounts for the mathematic 2.77% chance of getting the #1 spot.
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  #107  
Old 02-24-2019, 01:49 PM
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Mark Schmidt is probably the best coach in the A10. I'm shocked they are now statistically in the drivers seat for the 4th spot. They are gelling at the right time and would not be a team I'd like for UD to face.

I'm always impressed by how consistent his teams are given the lack of resources he has and selling kids to play in Olean, NY in the dead of winter.
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  #108  
Old 02-24-2019, 01:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
Mathematically:
  • VCU has .02% chance of missing out on a top 4 spot.
  • Davidson has a 1.98% chance of missing on a top 4 spot.
  • Dayton is third with 21.7% chance of missing on a top 4 spot.

Usually this means losses and combinations of tie breakers. But, the 2 losses to VCU basically puts us 3 games out of first place which accounts for the mathematic 2.77% chance of getting the #1 spot.
?? Help me here Figgie. I read the above as Flyers having a 96.18% chance of finishing in the top 4 and therefore only a 3.82% chance of not getting a top 4.
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  #109  
Old 02-24-2019, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
?? Help me here Figgie. I read the above as Flyers having a 96.18% chance of finishing in the top 4 and therefore only a 3.82% chance of not getting a top 4.
LIBob figures percentages based on win chance from sonewhere.

I figure mathematical possibilities. Ie, if all goes in a teams favor, or against a teams favor, or according to Kenpom chances, they are all in there.
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  #110  
Old 02-24-2019, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
?? Help me here Figgie. I read the above as Flyers having a 96.18% chance of finishing in the top 4 and therefore only a 3.82% chance of not getting a top 4.
Figgie basically gives every game a 50/50 chance. I factor in win probabilities from Massey ratings (they are very similar to KenPom).
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  #111  
Old 02-24-2019, 03:21 PM
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Aside from the obvious top four seeds; and given that many are concerned about the depth of the Flyers in a three games in three days scenario; it seems to me that consistent with that concern, it might better to be the four seed than the three seed, but that means losing a game along the way, or being the two would at-least be better than the three, both situations in regard to how fast the three and two seeds have to turn around a play again.

For example, the 3 seed plays last game on Friday night tipping at 8:30pm, but then has to move to the daytime session the next day against a team that played in the early Friday evening game; and then must play in Championship in day game against a team coming out of the afternoon side of the bracket. Or would it be better to be the 4 seed, play and beat VCU in the semis?

The question is specific to winning the A10 tourney and the NCAA bid that comes with it; it is not, however, meant to evaluate if you want to lose a regular season game in order for that to materialize...obviously that is not generally a desire.
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  #112  
Old 02-24-2019, 06:12 PM
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Amazing that the Bonnies lose that amazing Posley/Adams backcourt and are sitting in fourth this year.

They've come a long way from the Weldergate days.
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  #113  
Old 02-27-2019, 11:10 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 2/26:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     80.35%  19.51%   0.14%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.20
Davidson            19.58%  48.38%  31.59%   0.41%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.13
Dayton               0.07%  31.99%  59.71%   6.65%   1.26%   0.29%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.78
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.04%   0.99%  36.35%  30.05%  19.38%  12.85%   0.34%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.08
Duquesne             0.00%   0.05%   4.40%  22.06%  27.40%  24.53%  21.04%   0.49%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.37
George Mason         0.00%   0.03%   3.11%  18.70%  27.12%  28.70%  21.24%   1.10%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.50
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.05%  15.83%  14.09%  26.59%  36.92%   5.38%   1.07%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.05
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   3.71%  51.52%  26.75%  12.63%   4.84%   0.47%   0.06%   0.00%        8.65
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   0.88%  20.27%  39.20%  24.13%  12.37%   3.03%   0.03%   0.00%        9.36
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.38%   3.30%  13.07%  23.02%  43.87%  15.31%   0.97%   0.05%   0.00%        9.57
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   7.81%   9.11%  13.98%  25.78%  27.51%  11.01%   4.76%       11.08
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.53%   4.13%  30.44%  40.23%  20.39%   4.26%       11.89
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.31%   8.90%  18.73%  32.41%  39.63%       13.02
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.27%   0.89%   2.37%   9.07%  36.05%  51.35%       13.34
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  #114  
Old 02-27-2019, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 2/26:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     80.35%  19.51%   0.14%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.20
Davidson            19.58%  48.38%  31.59%   0.41%   0.04%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.13
Dayton               0.07%  31.99%  59.71%   6.65%   1.26%   0.29%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.78
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.04%   0.99%  36.35%  30.05%  19.38%  12.85%   0.34%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.08
Duquesne             0.00%   0.05%   4.40%  22.06%  27.40%  24.53%  21.04%   0.49%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.37
George Mason         0.00%   0.03%   3.11%  18.70%  27.12%  28.70%  21.24%   1.10%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.50
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.05%  15.83%  14.09%  26.59%  36.92%   5.38%   1.07%   0.06%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.05
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   3.71%  51.52%  26.75%  12.63%   4.84%   0.47%   0.06%   0.00%        8.65
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.09%   0.88%  20.27%  39.20%  24.13%  12.37%   3.03%   0.03%   0.00%        9.36
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   0.38%   3.30%  13.07%  23.02%  43.87%  15.31%   0.97%   0.05%   0.00%        9.57
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.04%   7.81%   9.11%  13.98%  25.78%  27.51%  11.01%   4.76%       11.08
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.53%   4.13%  30.44%  40.23%  20.39%   4.26%       11.89
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.31%   8.90%  18.73%  32.41%  39.63%       13.02
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.27%   0.89%   2.37%   9.07%  36.05%  51.35%       13.34
I don't post much on here but am always logged on reading the various threads multiple times a day and I cannot thank everyone enough for all of the time and support they make. From the seeding probabilities, to the game threads, to the guess the score and ESPECIALLY Rollo's post-game polls.

Thank you all for everything you do. It's a great time to be a Flyer. What a helluva successful year! I am so unbelievably proud of our team and their efforts all season. To be able to finish Top 4 this season is incredible. Congrats!

Last edited by DaytonDecibelDungeon; 02-27-2019 at 01:41 PM..
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  #115  
Old 02-27-2019, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by DaytonDecibelDungeon View Post
I don't post much on here but am always logged on reading the various the ads multiple times a day and I cannot thank everyone enough for all of the time and support they make. From the seeding probabilities, to the game threads, to the guess the score and even Rollo's post-game polls.
Ummm, don't you mean 'especially'?
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  #116  
Old 02-27-2019, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Ummm, don't you mean 'especially'?
My humble apologies. Fixed it lol
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Old 02-27-2019, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by DaytonDecibelDungeon View Post
My humble apologies. Fixed it lol
You are a loyal minion! May your loins stay strong, your health be golden and testimony never be needed by the Royal Congress!
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Old 02-27-2019, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by DaytonDecibelDungeon View Post
My humble apologies. Fixed it lol
Suddenly, I feel downgraded.
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Old 02-27-2019, 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Suddenly, I feel downgraded.
Don’t. You’re my new BFF.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:18 PM
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I need an update!!
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:24 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Don’t. You’re my new BFF.
Suddenly, I feel downgraded.
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Old 02-27-2019, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
Suddenly, I feel downgraded.

Fans can be so fickle . . .

Meanwhile, some interesting games at the top of the A-10 as the regular season wraps up:

VCU (13-2): @ Richmond, @ George Mason, vs St Joe's

Dayton (11-4): vs Rhode Island, vs La Salle, @ Duquesne

Davidson (11-4): vs Fordham, vs St Bonaventure, @ Richmond

George Mason (10-5): @ Saint Louis, vs VCU, @ George Washington

St Bonaventure (10-5): @ George Washington, @ Davidson, vs Saint Louis

Duquesne (9-6): vs UMass, @ Saint Louis, vs Dayton

Saint Louis (8-7): vs George Mason, vs Duquesne, @ St Bonaventure

As it stands right now, Dayton owns the two-way tie breaker with Davidson, and George Mason and St Bonaventure split their regular season meetings, so conference record based on winning percentage versus the highest common opponent is: GMU beat Dayton, SBU lost to Dayton.

Here's the A-10 tie-breaker formula:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...reaker2010.pdf

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Old 02-27-2019, 11:36 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I do think it is different when any given day comes the day after another any given day which came after another any given day.
That’s a given.
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Old 02-27-2019, 11:43 PM
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It’s interesting that perhaps the most critical game in the A-10 standings between now & the end of the season is Bonnies at Davidson next week. Either team could win that contest, both teams are well-coached, and both teams are fighting for a double-bye. A couple places in the standings for each team could hinge on the outcome.
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Old 02-27-2019, 11:45 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg View Post
Amazing that the Bonnies lose that amazing Posley/Adams backcourt and are sitting in fourth this year.

They've come a long way from the Weldergate days.
They have a great coach in Schmidt. And I think he likes the situation he’s in there. He could become McKillop 2.0.
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  #126  
Old 02-28-2019, 05:52 AM
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I believe a win Friday with a George Mason loss Saturday locks us into the double bye.

Update: I think it takes a Bonnie loss as well.

Yes.
2 more wins = lock
1 win, 1 GMU loss, and 1 SBU loss = lock

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  #127  
Old 02-28-2019, 07:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
Suddenly, I feel downgraded.
Sorry but the fact is I am pretty shallow. I am attracted to the latest shiny new digits.
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Old 02-28-2019, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Fans can be so fickle . . .

VCU (13-2): @ Richmond, @ George Mason, vs St Joe's
A loss @ Richmond (which has been known to happen with better VCU teams that this year's) and suddenly UD has a shot at a share of the league title. Not likely that VCU drops back to back games @ Richmond and @ George Mason, but not impossible.
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  #129  
Old 02-28-2019, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Sorry but the fact is I am pretty shallow. I am attracted to the latest shiny new digits.
I'm shallow, too, but it's shiny bikinis that grab my attention...



with Gold being my favorite....

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Old 02-28-2019, 09:14 AM
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I’m on my phone but had to change it to “desktop view” to be distracted by shining things. I forgot all about Anna. Productivity for the day just dropped 100%
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Old 02-28-2019, 09:16 AM
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Especially for my new BFF CE80!

Probabilities Through games of 2/27:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     98.19%   1.69%   0.11%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.02
Dayton               0.13%  68.00%  24.87%   5.56%   0.83%   0.57%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.41
Davidson             1.68%  29.70%  64.82%   3.41%   0.39%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.71
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.30%   4.15%  49.74%  33.45%   9.86%   2.51%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.56
George Mason         0.00%   0.31%   5.19%  23.53%  31.28%  26.77%  12.76%   0.16%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.18
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.09%  13.94%  12.68%  29.49%  38.68%   3.83%   1.14%   0.16%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.10
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.77%   3.82%  21.38%  32.79%  36.80%   4.23%   0.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.15
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.52%   5.98%  46.77%  34.67%  10.11%   1.92%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        8.54
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.33%  33.44%  33.08%  21.27%   9.28%   0.57%   0.04%   0.00%        9.04
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.85%   4.62%  11.20%  44.94%  36.34%   2.01%   0.04%   0.00%       10.17
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   6.94%  19.26%  21.14%  30.18%  20.86%   1.58%   0.00%       10.43
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.22%   1.25%  20.85%  59.37%  15.51%   2.80%       11.97
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.23%   1.13%   1.44%   7.60%  56.41%  33.20%       13.18
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   9.57%  26.43%  64.00%       13.54
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  #132  
Old 02-28-2019, 09:23 AM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer View Post
I forgot all about Anna.
Forgot??? Here's a quick refresher...





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  #133  
Old 02-28-2019, 09:48 AM
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Is that first picture what the net ratings are all about?
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  #134  
Old 02-28-2019, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Is that first picture what the net ratings are all about?
Gives a whole new meaning to nothing but net.
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Old 02-28-2019, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Especially for my new BFF CE80!

Probabilities Through games of 2/27:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     98.19%   1.69%   0.11%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.02
Dayton               0.13%  68.00%  24.87%   5.56%   0.83%   0.57%   0.05%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.41
Davidson             1.68%  29.70%  64.82%   3.41%   0.39%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.71
St Bonaventure       0.00%   0.30%   4.15%  49.74%  33.45%   9.86%   2.51%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.56
George Mason         0.00%   0.31%   5.19%  23.53%  31.28%  26.77%  12.76%   0.16%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.18
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.09%  13.94%  12.68%  29.49%  38.68%   3.83%   1.14%   0.16%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.10
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   0.77%   3.82%  21.38%  32.79%  36.80%   4.23%   0.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.15
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.52%   5.98%  46.77%  34.67%  10.11%   1.92%   0.03%   0.00%   0.00%        8.54
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   2.33%  33.44%  33.08%  21.27%   9.28%   0.57%   0.04%   0.00%        9.04
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.85%   4.62%  11.20%  44.94%  36.34%   2.01%   0.04%   0.00%       10.17
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.05%   6.94%  19.26%  21.14%  30.18%  20.86%   1.58%   0.00%       10.43
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.22%   1.25%  20.85%  59.37%  15.51%   2.80%       11.97
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.23%   1.13%   1.44%   7.60%  56.41%  33.20%       13.18
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   9.57%  26.43%  64.00%       13.54
That's it, I,m done for the day.

Serious question - does the above take into account the tie breakers?
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  #136  
Old 02-28-2019, 11:28 AM
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I can only assume yes, hence Davidson having 10x the chance at the 1 seed than UD, yet UD having more than twice the chance at the 2 seed than Davidson.
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Old 02-28-2019, 11:30 AM
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LIBob was that your probability chart I saw in a Jablonski tweet?
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Old 02-28-2019, 01:57 PM
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Should I post a Royal Poll???

Anna Fishnet???




Or Anna Leather???

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Old 02-28-2019, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Does the above take into account the tie breakers?
Yes, it does. It was the hardest part of the program to write.
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  #140  
Old 02-28-2019, 02:28 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
LIBob was that your probability chart I saw in a Jablonski tweet?
Yes, it was. CE80's tenure as my BFF may be short-lived.
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  #141  
Old 02-28-2019, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Yes, it was. CE80's tenure as my BFF may be short-lived.
I get it. It's not you, it's me.
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  #142  
Old 02-28-2019, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Is that first picture what the net ratings are all about?
Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Gives a whole new meaning to nothing but net.
Anna makes me wish I had 2 Johnson's, 4 hang-me-down-thangs, a video production facility on a remote island and her long lost twin sister.
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Old 02-28-2019, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Anna makes me wish I had 2 Johnson's, 4 hang-me-down-thangs, a video production facility on a remote island and her long lost twin sister.
We'd call you Robert Kraft, Jr.
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  #144  
Old 02-28-2019, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Anna makes me wish I had 2 Johnson's, 4 hang-me-down-thangs, a video production facility on a remote island and her long lost twin sister.
Originally Posted by Radar View Post
We'd call you Robert Kraft, Jr.
Does he have all those things?! D*mn! At least I know it's possible! And I can't wait for his trial...it's gonna be nuts...literally!!
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  #145  
Old 03-03-2019, 10:36 AM
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Here are the updated games at the top of the A-10 as the regular season wraps up:

VCU (14-2): @ George Mason, vs St Joe's

Davidson (12-4): vs St Bonaventure, @ Richmond

Dayton (11-5): vs La Salle, @ Duquesne

St Bonaventure (11-5): @ Davidson, vs Saint Louis

George Mason (10-6): vs VCU, @ George Washington

Duquesne (10-6): @ Saint Louis, vs Dayton

Saint Louis (9-7): vs Duquesne, @ St Bonaventure

With two games to go, only VCU looks like a solid pick.
If Dayton wins two, they can finish no worse than third.
If Dayton & St. Bonaventure win out, the Flyers lock up second.
If the Flyers lose at Duquesne, chaos ensues with a possible five way tie for second (not likely).

Here's the A-10 tie-breaker formula:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...reaker2010.pdf

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Old 03-03-2019, 10:56 AM
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1 Saint Bonaventure loss and 1 Dayton win locks up the double bye.
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  #147  
Old 03-03-2019, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Here are the updated games at the top of the A-10 as the regular season wraps up:

VCU (14-2): @ George Mason, vs St Joe's

Davidson (12-4): vs St Bonaventure, @ Richmond

Dayton (11-5): vs La Salle, @ Duquesne

St Bonaventure (11-5): @ Davidson, vs Saint Louis

George Mason (10-6): vs VCU, @ George Washington

Duquesne (10-6): @ Saint Louis, vs Dayton

Saint Louis (9-7): vs Duquesne, @ St Bonaventure

With two games to go, only VCU looks like a solid pick.
If Dayton wins two, they can finish no worse than third.
If Dayton & St. Bonaventure win out, the Flyers lock up second.
If the Flyers lose at Duquesne, chaos ensues with a possible five way tie for second (not likely).

Here's the A-10 tie-breaker formula:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...reaker2010.pdf

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We have some solid tie breaker cards too, having gone 1-0 against both Davidson and St. Bonaventure, two teams that appear to factor heavily in any multi-team tie for 2nd, 3rd or 4th. We also would own the tie breaker with Duquesne, even with a loss to them, courtesy of our win over Davidson (strongest win in the standings).

The only tie breaker we could potentially lose, seemingly, would be a 2-team tie breaker with George Mason.
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Old 03-03-2019, 11:25 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 3/2:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     98.76%   1.24%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.01
Davidson             1.24%  72.07%  23.72%   2.98%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.28
Dayton               0.00%  25.27%  58.00%   9.70%   3.07%   3.16%   0.81%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        3.03
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.43%   8.92%  52.74%  29.92%   6.99%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.32
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   5.40%  11.19%  21.47%  37.53%  24.41%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.64
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   0.83%  19.26%  15.80%  28.03%  30.55%   5.54%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.85
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   3.14%   4.14%  29.73%  24.30%  38.69%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.91
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.54%  76.63%   9.31%   7.53%   0.99%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        8.22
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  11.44%  73.84%  14.11%   0.62%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.04
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   6.05%  12.80%  45.55%  30.60%   5.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.16
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.34%   4.06%  32.80%  62.79%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.58
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   5.00%  78.33%  15.24%   1.43%       12.13
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.72%  57.03%  38.25%       13.34
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  11.95%  27.73%  60.32%       13.48
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  #149  
Old 03-03-2019, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Here are the updated games at the top of the A-10 as the regular season wraps up:

VCU (14-2): @ George Mason, vs St Joe's

Davidson (12-4): vs St Bonaventure, @ Richmond

Dayton (11-5): vs La Salle, @ Duquesne

St Bonaventure (11-5): @ Davidson, vs Saint Louis

George Mason (10-6): vs VCU, @ George Washington

Duquesne (10-6): @ Saint Louis, vs Dayton

Saint Louis (9-7): vs Duquesne, @ St Bonaventure

With two games to go, only VCU looks like a solid pick.
If Dayton wins two, they can finish no worse than third.
If Dayton & St. Bonaventure win out, the Flyers lock up second.
If the Flyers lose at Duquesne, chaos ensues with a possible five way tie for second (not likely).

Here's the A-10 tie-breaker formula:
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...reaker2010.pdf

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The 5-way tie scenario seems unlikely, with Duquesne playing at SLU this week, and needing to win that game and next Saturday’s game against us to force their part of that scenario. I just want to stay in the 2-3 hole, to stay away from VCU until the last possible day.
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  #150  
Old 03-03-2019, 11:47 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I just want to stay in the 2-3 hole, to stay away from VCU until the last possible day.
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Probabilities suggest that's an 83% chance. I think most on the board would take the 2 or 3 hole right now..........AND would have paid big money to take that spot in October.
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Old 03-03-2019, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
Probabilities suggest that's an 83% chance. I think most on the board would take the 2 or 3 hole right now..........AND would have paid big money to take that spot in October.
And probabilities suggested that we’d beat Rhode Island last Friday, too. I’ll feel a lot better if VCU and Davidson both win their early games this coming week.
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Old 03-03-2019, 12:13 PM
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I would suggest, that with an at large out the window. I believe we have a better chance to beat VCU on Sat not Sunday considering both teams depth. Then take our chances Sunday.
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Old 03-03-2019, 12:24 PM
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Originally Posted by flybye View Post
I would suggest, that with an at large out the window. I believe we have a better chance to beat VCU on Sat not Sunday considering both teams depth. Then take our chances Sunday.
I could agree that we have a better chance to beat VCU on Saturday than we would Sunday, using only the fresher legs/depth argument. But if we're the 2 or 3 seed, what are the chances that someone else knocks them off in the quarters or semis? Perhaps Rhody as the 8th seed or the Bonnies as the 4th seed?
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Old 03-03-2019, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
We also would own the tie breaker with Duquesne, even with a loss to them, courtesy of our win over Davidson (strongest win in the standings).
This is incorrect. UD's 0-2 record against VCU is considered WORSE than Duquesne's 0-1 record versus VCU. Therefore, a 2 way tie between Duquesne and Dayton, if Duquesne beats UD on the final Saturday would put Duquesne ahead of Dayton.
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  #155  
Old 03-03-2019, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
This is incorrect. UD's 0-2 record against VCU is considered WORSE than Duquesne's 0-1 record versus VCU. Therefore, a 2 way tie between Duquesne and Dayton, if Duquesne beats UD on the final Saturday would put Duquesne ahead of Dayton.
Is there a scenario that could produce a two-way tie between Duquesne and Dayton without any other teams involved?

I forgot about the 0-2 vs 0-1 tie breaker - that could be a problem in a multi team tie as well. George Mason, SBU, SLU, and Duquesne are all 0-1 against VCU, but only GMU has them Tuesday (really doesn't matter since they beat us head to head). Every other team in the bunch only played VCU once. Seems kind of like a double penalty - you play the best team twice and your are penalized worse than a team with an eaiser schedule. I understand that it is designed to give the better teams a shot at "at-larges", but it didn't play out this year.

Multi team tiebreakers that make it beyond "best record of the group" do not look good for us. (i.e. two team tie breakers).

Let's assume we win Tuesday and lose next Saturday. We are playing for 3rd or 4th at best. Two spots for these 4 teams

SBU wins out 12-6
GMU wins out 12-6
DUQ wins out 12-6

Dayton finishes 12-6
Two way tie with any team accept SBU - Dayton would lose.

Dayton record against the group 2-2
GMU against the group 2-2
DUQ against the group 2-3
SBU against the group 2-2


Now assuming SBU drops a game and falls out leaving a 3 way tie with GMU and DUQ...

Dayton record against the group 1-2
GMU against the group 1-1
DUQ against the group 2-1

We get left out in that three way tie.

We need to win and need SLU and VCU to win Wednesday. I have a headache now from crunching this.

I stated earlier that a Dayton win and SBU loss would lock us, but I am not so sure now.

That *&*&%$! Rhode Island game.
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Old 03-03-2019, 04:21 PM
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I personally saw another loss coming up for a while. So, if we had to have another one, I guess I would rather it have been Friday night. We have the La Salle game on Wednesday to correct things prior to heading to Pittsburgh to face Duquesne in what is sounding like will be a huge game for both teams.
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
This is incorrect. UD's 0-2 record against VCU is considered WORSE than Duquesne's 0-1 record versus VCU. Therefore, a 2 way tie between Duquesne and Dayton, if Duquesne beats UD on the final Saturday would put Duquesne ahead of Dayton.
That’s not the way I am interpreting it from the A10 website listing tiebreakers. That provision only seems to apply when arriving at another pair of tied teams when going down highest common opponent to lowest common opponent - for example if next highest common opponent were say an 11-7 St. Louis and an 11-7 George Mason.

http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=209901106
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Old 03-03-2019, 05:17 PM
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Guys. Stop already. We win the next two we lock up the bye. If we can’t win the next two how the heck are we going to win 3 games in Brooklyn?
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  #159  
Old 03-03-2019, 05:20 PM
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Guys we could lock up at the worst the 3 seed by Wednesday Night... UD Wins, VCU wins at GMU, DAV beats SBU at home & SLU beats DUQ at home... All EASILY possible
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Old 03-03-2019, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
Guys we could lock up at the worst the 3 seed by Wednesday Night... UD Wins, VCU wins at GMU, DAV beats SBU at home & SLU beats DUQ at home... All EASILY possible
That 830 game time in BKLN would be nice...but a shorter turnaround.
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Old 03-04-2019, 08:29 AM
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2-seed would have been nice to not have to play a late game on Friday night and have a quick turnaround Saturday afternoon. However, I don't know why I even play out these scenarios in my head because all I ever do is allow them to let me down. 1 conference championship in how many years?? Come on - that's lame.
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  #162  
Old 03-04-2019, 08:39 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
That’s not the way I am interpreting it from the A10 website listing tiebreakers. That provision only seems to apply when arriving at another pair of tied teams when going down highest common opponent to lowest common opponent - for example if next highest common opponent were say an 11-7 St. Louis and an 11-7 George Mason.

http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=209901106
It might be a little vague, but I still believe its accurate. (emphasis mine)

When arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s record against the tied teams
as a group. When comparing records against a group of teams, the higher winning
percentage will prevail. In case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or
.000, the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.
When breaking ties, you go by seeded team above your win level, and by groups of teams below your win level. The A10 forum hashed that out with the A10 office either last year or two years ago, when a situation like this occurred.
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Old 03-04-2019, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
2-seed would have been nice to not have to play a late game on Friday night and have a quick turnaround Saturday afternoon. However, I don't know why I even play out these scenarios in my head because all I ever do is allow them to let me down. 1 conference championship in how many years?? Come on - that's lame.
That’s why a win last Friday night would have been such a big deal. Too bad 2/3 of the team didn’t think so (or, at least, they didn’t play like it was that important).
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Old 03-04-2019, 08:54 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Is there a scenario that could produce a two-way tie between Duquesne and Dayton without any other teams involved?
You list the teams involved all winning out. Just don't have them winning out.

The only way the two-way tie between Dayton and Duquesne would happen, is if Duquesne wins out (@Stl,Dayton) and Dayton beats La Salle before losing to Duquesne. That puts both teams at 12-4.

Davidson is already 12-4, so they just need to win 1 game (StB,@Rich). St Bonaventure is 11-5 (@Dav,StL) so they would either have to win both (13-5), or lose both (11-7). George Mason is 10-6 (VCU, @GW), so win no more than 1.

Of those teams, I could see Davidson winning 1 of final 2, and Mason losing to VCU, so neither of those teams would be 12-4. Then, we have Bonaventure. I can see 1-1, losing @ Davidson and beating Saint Louis. But, if Bonaventure wins at Davidson, then Davidson needs to win at Richmond and Saint Bonaventure beat Saint Louis in Olean.

That would put Davidson and Bonaventure at 13 wins (Davidson gets tie break with 1-0 vs 0-1 against VCU), Dayton and Duquesne at 12 (Duq with 0-1 vs 0-2 against VCU), and George Mason stays at either 10 or 11. UD would be #5 in that scenario.
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:17 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
That’s not the way I am interpreting it from the A10 website listing tiebreakers. That provision only seems to apply when arriving at another pair of tied teams when going down highest common opponent to lowest common opponent - for example if next highest common opponent were say an 11-7 St. Louis and an 11-7 George Mason.

http://www.atlantic10.com/ViewArticl...CLID=209901106
Item 2 under two tied teams clearly says record against highest common opponet, that would be VCU and the Dukes win, 0-1 vs 0-2
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Item 2 under two tied teams clearly says record against highest common opponet, that would be VCU and the Dukes win, 0-1 vs 0-2
No, it says winning percentage. Under item b. below that, it suggests that an 0-1 record would be better than 0-2 record, but it suggests that only applies to the "tied teams" in the common opponent ranking.
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Old 03-04-2019, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
No, it says winning percentage. Under item b. below that, it suggests that an 0-1 record would be better than 0-2 record, but it suggests that only applies to the "tied teams" in the common opponent ranking.
That is true if you are comparing UD's and DU's record against the highest common opponent and the highest opponent is actually two teams tied for the highest position. however that is not the case. the comparison is to the highest opponent and there is no tie, it is VCU. We are 0-2, Dukes are 0-1, Dukies win. Figgie has it right.

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Old 03-04-2019, 10:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Figgie123 View Post
It might be a little vague, but I still believe its accurate. (emphasis mine) . . .
When breaking ties, you go by seeded team above your win level, and by groups of teams below your win level. The A10 forum hashed that out with the A10 office either last year or two years ago, when a situation like this occurred.

So you're saying beat Duquesne? And La Salle too?
No problem.

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  #169  
Old 03-05-2019, 04:41 AM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
That is true if you are comparing UD's and DU's record against the highest common opponent and the highest opponent is actually two teams tied for the highest position. however that is not the case. the comparison is to the highest opponent and there is no tie, it is VCU. We are 0-2, Dukes are 0-1, Dukies win. Figgie has it right.
I understand the tie breaker, and how it is applied, just not why. Wouldn't it make as much sense, and be a little more fair to use average margin? If team A won the conference and team B1 lost to them once by 20, while team B2 lost to them twice, both times by 2, wouldn't most rational thinkers say B2 is better than B1? Not the A10, nope, B1 is better using their tiebreaker. Just doesn't make much sense.
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
I understand the tie breaker, and how it is applied, just not why. Wouldn't it make as much sense, and be a little more fair to use average margin? If team A won the conference and team B1 lost to them once by 20, while team B2 lost to them twice, both times by 2, wouldn't most rational thinkers say B2 is better than B1? Not the A10, nope, B1 is better using their tiebreaker. Just doesn't make much sense.
So a team is rewarded for two losses. Looks a lot like the way the Dance card will be filled this year. If team B2 is better, why are they tied with team B1 to begin with? I like it the way it is, margin of wins is a poor way to evaluate, wins and losses is clear.
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Old 03-05-2019, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
So a team is rewarded for two losses. Looks a lot like the way the Dance card will be filled this year. If team B2 is better, why are they tied with team B1 to begin with? I like it the way it is, margin of wins is a poor way to evaluate, wins and losses is clear.
But they both lost, to the same team. Should number of times played against said team be the evaluator? Do you believe team B1 is better because they only played team A once? This means they were defeated by a lesser team more often than B2, another reason B2 is better.

By the way, my preferred option is to move to the next tiebreaker, as these 2 teams have an equal winning percentage. But I am OK with using margin when evaluating 2 seemingly equal teams, not for determining the entire field.

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Old 03-05-2019, 12:10 PM
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The imbalanced pod schedule makes a difference.

UD played one of the toughest if not toughest pods in the conference.
Two games against VCU, Rhode Island, Duquesne and St. Louis. All are in the top half of the league. Only bottom feeder double booking was UMass.
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  #173  
Old 03-05-2019, 12:30 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
The imbalanced pod schedule makes a difference.

UD played one of the toughest if not toughest pods in the conference.
Two games against VCU, Rhode Island, Duquesne and St. Louis. All are in the top half of the league. Only bottom feeder double booking was UMass.
I think Dayton had the #2 SOS in conference and URI was #1. I could be wrong.
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Old 03-05-2019, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by SeasonTicketFan View Post
The imbalanced pod schedule makes a difference.

UD played one of the toughest if not toughest pods in the conference.
Two games against VCU, Rhode Island, Duquesne and St. Louis. All are in the top half of the league. Only bottom feeder double booking was UMass.
That is the problem with not knowing how NET works and how the committee will use it. UD has typically wanted the tougher schedule for what they hoped was a way to improve the resume. However, it can hurt seeding for the A10 tourney. With NET, maybe they would be better off beating up on one of the bottom 4 another time.
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:33 PM
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VCU clobbers at Mason in Fairfax 71-36

We clinch a top 3 seed if we take care of business & both SLU & DC win at home tomorrow
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Old 03-05-2019, 09:40 PM
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VCUs win gives them the outright A10 title and #1 seed.
Mason's loss means the Flyers cannot finish in 7th place and they have less than 2% change of a 4 seed.

Fordham, Massachusetts and George Washington are locked into bottom 4, and Richmond and Saint Josephs are battling to stay out of that spot.

Davidson can get the #2 seed if they win and Dayton loses tomorrow.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:19 AM
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Originally Posted by lhsgolf19 View Post
VCU clobbers at Mason in Fairfax 71-36

We clinch a top 3 seed if we take care of business & both SLU & DC win at home tomorrow
We take care of business tonight and Bonnies defeat Davidson we, Bonnies, and Davidson are all 12-5. Tiebreaker (going into Duquesne)? Flyers
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:34 AM
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Dayton and SLU both win, then Dayton is assured at least 4th. If UD, SLU, & SBU all win, Dayton could finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. If UD, SLU, & DC win, then Dayton would be 3rd.
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Old 03-06-2019, 08:42 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 3/5:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth    100.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.00
Davidson             0.00%  73.09%  23.54%   3.38%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.30
Dayton               0.00%  25.49%  63.83%   6.10%   1.86%   1.79%   0.93%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.93
St Bonaventure       0.00%   1.43%   8.40%  63.28%  26.61%   0.29%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        4.16
St Louis             0.00%   0.00%   1.05%  23.60%  15.15%  26.63%  22.36%  11.21%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.79
Duquesne             0.00%   0.00%   3.17%   3.36%  36.05%  24.87%  32.55%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        5.80
George Mason         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.29%  20.33%  46.43%  32.96%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        6.12
Rhode Island         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  11.21%  87.00%   1.79%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        7.91
La Salle             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.79%  93.21%   4.77%   0.23%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        9.03
Richmond             0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   3.44%  59.62%  36.94%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%       10.34
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   1.56%  35.61%  52.33%  10.50%   0.00%   0.00%       10.72
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  10.50%  73.36%  14.72%   1.42%       12.07
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   4.59%  57.02%  38.40%       13.34
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  11.55%  28.26%  60.19%       13.49
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  #180  
Old 03-06-2019, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 3/5:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Dayton               0.00%  25.49%  63.83%   6.10%   1.86%   1.79%   0.93%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.93
Dayton cannot come in 7th place.

To get to 7th place, Dayton and Saint Louis would have to tie for 11-7. So, Saint Louis would have to win out which includes beating Duquesne and Saint Bonaventure. Dayton would also have to lose out, which includes La Salle and Duquesne.

So, there you have Dayton, Saint Louis and Duquesne at 11 wins. With Mason losing last night, they would HAVE to win to setup a 4 way tie at 11-7 for UD to have a chance at 7th place.

So, in that 4 team tie break, Saint Louis is 3-2 (1-1 vs Day, 1-1 vs Duq, 1-0 vs Mason), Duquesne 3-2 (1-1 vs Day, 1-1 vs Saint Louis, 1-0 vs Mason), Dayton is 2-3 (1-1 vs Duq, 1-1 vs Stl, 0-1 vs Mason), and Mason is at 1-2 (0-1 vs Duq, 0-1 vs Stl, 1-0 vs Dayton). At this point Dayton and Mason are seeded 6 and 7 respectively, and Saint Louis / Duquesne goes down other tiebreakers. (Probably Bonnies at that point with Saint Louis 1-0 vs Duq 0-2.)

If you add Bonnies to a 5 game tie break, Saint Louis is 4-2, Bonnies and UD at 3-3, Duquesne at 3-4 and Mason at 2-3. That would put Dayton at #4 because of 1-0 vs StB.

Figgie
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  #181  
Old 03-06-2019, 11:27 AM
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I don't get as nearly excited about this any more. I was until the egg was laid Friday night. Now, I'll just see where we land after Saturday.
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Old 03-06-2019, 12:16 PM
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So basically, win tonight and we play Friday evening. When Saturday, and more than likely we play early Friday evening. Lose tonight, and all hell breaks loose.
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  #183  
Old 03-06-2019, 09:19 PM
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Maybe I missed it, but who would win the tie-breaker if UD, St Bonnie, and Duquesne all finish 12-6? I guess I'm a St Louis fan for the next few days.
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Maybe I missed it, but who would win the tie-breaker if UD, St Bonnie, and Duquesne all finish 12-6? I guess I'm a St Louis fan for the next few days.
I think we win that 3 way. I think it is if we win and Davidson loses on Saturday we get the 2. Otherwise it’s the 3.
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:28 PM
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SLU duq gamegetting chippy
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:44 PM
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Dayton could wind up at #4 if in a 2 way tie with Duquesne. Would require 2 Duquesne wins and a St. Bona loss on Saturday.
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:47 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfever View Post
SLU duq game getting chippy
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St Louis up 57-49. Not sure the time. Go Billikens!
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:48 PM
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Wrapped up a 3. Could be a 2 if we win Saturday and Davidson loses
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think we win that 3 way. I think it is if we win and Davidson loses on Saturday we get the 2. Otherwise it’s the 3.
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Of course a three way is a winner.....
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:50 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Dayton could wind up at #4 if in a 2 way tie with Duquesne. Would require 2 Duquesne wins and a St. Bona loss on Saturday.
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Wrapped up a 3. Could be a 2 if we win Saturday and Davidson loses
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Somebody has it wrong.
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  #191  
Old 03-06-2019, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Dayton could wind up at #4 if in a 2 way tie with Duquesne. Would require 2 Duquesne wins and a St. Bona loss on Saturday.
Is that because we lost to VCU twice?
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Old 03-06-2019, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Of course a three way is a winner.....
I still think that is very dependent on who are the other 2?
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  #193  
Old 03-06-2019, 10:01 PM
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Someone on this site said Carry for Duq was having an operation and out for the season. He started tonight and is alive.

79-71 St L with 1:30 minute to go.
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:04 PM
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Isabell with 37 for SLU, Williams with 38 for Duq. Man, we better play some D Saturday. Think Cohill sees more PT and guards him?
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:07 PM
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St. Louis 85
DU 75


Go Flyers!!!
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  #196  
Old 03-06-2019, 10:09 PM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan View Post
Isabell with 37 for SLU, Williams with 38 for Duq. Man, we better play some D Saturday. Think Cohill sees more PT and guards him?
Williams is 6'6'' and 205. Probably too big for Cohill. I would not be surprised if Cohill starts Sat for Davis.

Probably Mikesell and Landers guard him.
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by 1in25 View Post
St. Louis 85 DU 75 Go Flyers!!!

I believe we have now clinched no worse than the third seed! Congrats Flyers!
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Is that because we lost to VCU twice?
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Yes, but it doesn't matter now.
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Old 03-06-2019, 10:26 PM
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Dayton guaranteed a 3 seed and gets a 2 seed with Dayton win and Davidson loss at Richmond Saturday.
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Old 03-06-2019, 11:06 PM
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#1 - VCU

#2/#3
  • Davidson win - #2 Davidson / #3 Dayton
  • Davidson loss and Dayton loss - #2 Davidson / #3 Dayton
  • Davidson loss and Dayton win - #2 Dayton / #3 Davidson

#4 Saint Bonaventure vs Saint Louis Saturday, Winner gets #4.

#5 - Saint Bonaventure with a loss against Saint Louis.

#5/#6/#7 is between Saint Louis, Duquesne and George Mason if Bonnie win. A Saint Louis loss puts Duquesne and Mason in the drivers seat for #5/#6 with wins. With losses, though, Saint Louis gets the tiebreak against 1 or both of them.

#8 is Rhode Island

#9 is between La Salle and Saint Josephs. La Salle with a win or Joe's loss, Joe's need a win and La Salle to lose.

#10 is between La Salle, Saint Joe's and Richmond. La Salle gets #10 with a loss and Joe's win. Richmond gets #10 with a win and Joe's loss. Otherwise, Joe's gets #10.

#11 is Richmond's unless Joe's lose and Richmond wins, then #11 is St Josephs.

#12/#13/#14
  • GW win, MASS win, FOR win - GW, Mass, For
  • GW win, MASS win, FOR loss - GW, Mass, For
  • GW win, MASS loss, FOR win - GW, For, Mass
  • GW win, MASS loss FOR loss - GW, Mass, For
  • GW loss, MASS win, FOR win - Mass, For, GW
  • GW loss, MASS win, FOR loss - Mass, GW, For
  • GW loss, MASS loss, FOR win - For, GW, Mass
  • GW loss, MASS loss FOR loss - GW, Mass, For

Provided by Figstats
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