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  #201  
Old 03-05-2019, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
That site is doing daily updates now I guess.

NIT:

IU moves up to a 4. You know who gaining steam at a 3.

Dayton 4
Davidson 3

https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
Interesting to me that they have 3 BE teams Dancing, 5 BE teams in the Miss Congeniality tournament, and only 2 (Butler and DePaul) on the sidelines. Oh, how I'd love for Butler to come-up a few notches in the conference standings, and knock the others above them back a peg or 2. And I wouldn't mind if DePaul would do the same.

And, yes, they only have 3 A-10 teams doing any sort of dancing, with 1 (VCU) On-Broadway, and 2 others (us and Davidson) Off-Broadway. Yes, the league is down this year.
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  #202  
Old 03-05-2019, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
It cracks me up that they give Wright State the automatic bid to the NIT for winning the regular season championship and then give them a #8 seed. Shows what they think of the Horizon League.
The HL is #22 of 32 per the rpi.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html


The HL is #18 of 32 per Kenpom.

Hard for me to say if a NIT 8 is accurate as that is based upon how many conference leaders lose in their conference tournament. I suppose that if every conference leader was upset in their conference tournament, then they would get a 5 or 6.
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  #203  
Old 03-05-2019, 07:26 PM
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It makes sense to me. If they win the Horizon League regular season they get a NIT bid. If not they are out unless they win the conference tournament for the NCAA bid.
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  #204  
Old 03-05-2019, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
It makes sense to me. If they win the Horizon League regular season they get a NIT bid. If not they are out unless they win the conference tournament for the NCAA bid.

Either you missed my point or I'm missing yours. My point was if they win the Horizon League regular season championship they still get the worst seed in the NIT (according to this site). That doesn't say much for the Horizon League. You would think the regular season champion of a decent conference would get a better seed than an 8.
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  #205  
Old 03-05-2019, 08:43 PM
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I guess I do get your point. We agree that the Horizon league is bad. What is interesting is they only show 4 conference champions, but indicate that 7-9 usually make it. So maybe they think WSU is worthy of the last at large in the NIT if 7-9 teams wouldn't bump them. The Colonial conference was a 6 seed.
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  #206  
Old 03-06-2019, 12:32 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Either you missed my point or I'm missing yours. My point was if they win the Horizon League regular season championship they still get the worst seed in the NIT (according to this site). That doesn't say much for the Horizon League. You would think the regular season champion of a decent conference would get a better seed than an 8.
Nobody ever said that the HL was great...all I am saying is that an 8 seed does not mean that the HL is among the 4 worst leagues...the HL is a middling conference, if all conference leaders lose, then the HL champ gets a 5 or 6.
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  #207  
Old 03-06-2019, 12:36 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I guess I do get your point. We agree that the Horizon league is bad. What is interesting is they only show 4 conference champions, but indicate that 7-9 usually make it. So maybe they think WSU is worthy of the last at large in the NIT if 7-9 teams wouldn't bump them. The Colonial conference was a 6 seed.
They are not talking about WSU being a NIT at-large. That 8 seed refers to WSU being the co-champ of the HL and losing in the HLT. WSU is not anywhere close to being a NIT at-large team.

The NIT at-large cutoff is usually around rpi #70-80, but it can vary quite a bit, p5 teams frequently can have a rpi significantly worse than 80 and still get an at-large. Probably the bigger the p5 name, the more benefit of the doubt they get.

Last edited by ud2; 03-06-2019 at 12:40 AM..
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  #208  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:27 AM
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I didn't realize that they had already clinched their conference regular season title. Good point - they may rise above the 8 if 4 or more of the 10 conferences below them produce auto bids.

Too bad because the fools clamoring for the Gem City jam could have it in the only acceptable form... a single buy game at UD Arena in the second round of the NIT.
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  #209  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I didn't realize that they had already clinched their conference regular season title. Good point - they may rise above the 8 if 4 or more of the 10 conferences below them produce auto bids.

Too bad because the fools clamoring for the Gem City jam could have it in the only acceptable form... a single buy game at UD Arena in the second round of the NIT.
The GCJ could happen this year...the most likely scenario would be a 3/6 or 2/7 1st round NIT match-up...and I think the NCAA does purposefully set up games like this in the NIT in order to drive up interest/maybe cut down on travel costs, there are several examples of these type of local rivalry games in the NIT through the years.

Last edited by ud2; 03-07-2019 at 09:56 AM..
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  #210  
Old 03-07-2019, 09:55 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
The GCJ could happen this year...the most likely scenario would be a 3/6 or 2/7 1st round NIT match-up.

NIT 1st round prediction:

X at UD
Wright State at OSU
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  #211  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:13 AM
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Yep, anyone of those four teams, and Indiana, could play each other in the NIT. The only matchup totally unlikely is IU/OSU, unless its in the quarterfinals or beyond.
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  #212  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:28 AM
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Can UD host a 1st round NIT game? I know they had to play @ iowa as the better seed last time around due to 1st four conflicts. WSU @ UD @ the Nutter Center?
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  #213  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
NIT 1st round prediction:

X at UD
Wright State at OSU
Last year all first round NIT games were played Tues/Weds following Selection Sunday. If they follow suit this year that knocks UD Arena out for hosting.
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  #214  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:30 AM
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Last 10 years 1st round examples of local opponent games:

2018 NIT...NKU at Louisville

2016 NIT...North Florida at Florida...Akron at Ohio State

2014...FGCU at Florida State

2013...Norfolk State at Virginia

2012...Stony Brook at Seton Hall

2011...Florida Atlantic at Miami...Milwaukee at NW...Nebraska at Wichita State

2010...Jackson State at Mississippi State

2009...Jacksonville at Florida
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  #215  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
Can UD host a 1st round NIT game? I know they had to play @ iowa as the better seed last time around due to 1st four conflicts. WSU @ UD @ the Nutter Center?
Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Last year all first round NIT games were played Tues/Weds following Selection Sunday. If they follow suit this year that knocks UD Arena out for hosting.

It has been reported there is an agreement that UD could play a home game on Thursday.
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  #216  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Last year all first round NIT games were played Tues/Weds following Selection Sunday. If they follow suit this year that knocks UD Arena out for hosting.
Untrue. After the Iowa game the NCAA agreed to let UD play on Thursday should we be the higher seed.
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  #217  
Old 03-07-2019, 10:41 AM
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Wink

Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Untrue. After the Iowa game the NCAA agreed to let UD play on Thursday should we be the higher seed.
which is why I said: "if they follow suit"
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  #218  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:11 AM
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Wink Is there an agreement

Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
It has been reported there is an agreement that UD could play a home game on Thursday.
True, it is highly reported, but is there an agreement or not? It should be as simple as if an agreement exist, then the NCAA owned NIT should have no problem securing a UD home game if the end of season selection process warrants it.

Not aimed at you longtime, just saying, we should be able to know if said agreement really does exist.
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  #219  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:44 AM
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https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/

NIT:

Dayton 3
Wright State 7
Davidson 2
Indiana 4
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  #220  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:49 AM
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Would a first round NIT game interfere with the First Four?
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  #221  
Old 03-07-2019, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by cj View Post
Would a first round NIT game interfere with the First Four?
See posts #215 and #216 above...apparently not. Although I trust NOTHING the NCAA says they'll do.
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  #222  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:13 PM
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What always gets me about the NIT seeding, is how are the teams listed on many "First Four Out and Next Four Out" list, always ending as either a projected, or actual when the field is announced, 3 through 5 seeds in the NIT?? This boggles my mathematical mind, as four regions times one is equal to four, and two regions x 4 teams is eight, blah, blah, blah; and that clearly equals less than four regions times 4 seeds in a region, which equals 12.

Follow me here? I get there are different folks projecting, but its crazy when a school is constantly on the first four out list and ends ups seeded 2-4. Amazing!
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  #223  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:23 PM
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Now this will sound crazy; but I am not convinced that UD's at-large chances are totally dead here. Any other year, and past RPI, then yes, absolutely toast; but this might be the softest bubble ever in the history of the NCAA Tournament. I am not totally convinced that a win at Duquesne, a quarterfinal win, a win over Davidson in the Semis, and a narrow loss to VCU in title game, might not still put UD right on either side of the cutline. If I would have had todays updated standings back in November, I would have said no way in the lucifer's scorching home could this remotely be possible. But after taking stock of the bubble, I wouldn't close that at-large coffin just yet.
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  #224  
Old 03-07-2019, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Now this will sound crazy; but I am not convinced that UD's at-large chances are totally dead here. Any other year, and past RPI, then yes, absolutely toast; but this might be the softest bubble ever in the history of the NCAA Tournament. I am not totally convinced that a win at Duquesne, a quarterfinal win, a win over Davidson in the Semis, and a narrow loss to VCU in title game, might not still put UD right on either side of the cutline. If I would have had todays updated standings back in November, I would have said no way in the lucifer's scorching home could this remotely be possible. But after taking stock of the bubble, I wouldn't close that at-large coffin just yet.
I'd like to drink this Kool-Aid, but just can't without some fool's gold hesitation. I was starting to sip some before the RI loss last Friday, that a win-out to the final could put us in play.

I agree the bubble is soft
Lunardi moved us back to the 8th team out. And if Lunardi says so?? HaHa
I HATE that we don't have any Quad 1 wins and can't without winning the final anyway
There are some P5 teams listed on some bubble sites as IN or close to IN that have some real nasty eye sores on their resumes - Clemson 1-10 in Q1 games, NC State with 2nd worst non-con SOS IN THE COUNTRY, Indiana (see the 1000 posts in this and other threads), TCU (6-11 in conference), Creighton (16-14)
First year with NET. Who really knows how the committee adopts/uses that?
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  #225  
Old 03-07-2019, 01:02 PM
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Interesting . . .

Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I'd like to drink this Kool-Aid, but just can't without some fool's gold hesitation. I was starting to sip some before the RI loss last Friday, that a win-out to the final could put us in play.

I agree the bubble is soft
Lunardi moved us back to the 8th team out. And if Lunardi says so?? HaHa
I HATE that we don't have any Quad 1 wins and can't without winning the final anyway
There are some P5 teams listed on some bubble sites as IN or close to IN that have some real nasty eye sores on their resumes - Clemson 1-10 in Q1 games, NC State with 2nd worst non-con SOS IN THE COUNTRY, Indiana (see the 1000 posts in this and other threads), TCU (6-11 in conference), Creighton (16-14)
First year with NET. Who really knows how the committee adopts/uses that?

Joe Lunardi today:

Next Four Out:
Indiana
Creighton
Xavier
Dayton

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  #226  
Old 03-07-2019, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Joe Lunardi today:

Next Four Out:
Indiana
Creighton
Xavier
Dayton

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If we had legitimate first four consideration, I might buy this. I have noticed a pattern with the committee indicating a regional team needs to be in Dayton. Unfortunately for us, Ohio State losing last night may have bumped them into the first four conversation. I realize Joey brackets has them as a 10 right now, but a loss to Wisconsin on Sunday and an early exit from the Big Ten tournament may put the buckeyes in Dayton. Then you can completely forget about us being anywhere near there.
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  #227  
Old 03-07-2019, 01:41 PM
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An at large bid.... please! No way we deserve it. Davidson away is our only quality win. Our 20 victims will average ~ 19 losses when the year is over. At this juncture it looks like not one will make the tournament at large and none are expected to win conference tournament championships.
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:07 PM
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Wink No...NIT

Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
If we had legitimate first four consideration, I might buy this. I have noticed a pattern with the committee indicating a regional team needs to be in Dayton. Unfortunately for us, Ohio State losing last night may have bumped them into the first four conversation. I realize Joey brackets has them as a 10 right now, but a loss to Wisconsin on Sunday and an early exit from the Big Ten tournament may put the buckeyes in Dayton. Then you can completely forget about us being anywhere near there.
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No, a winless close to the season will put OSU out of the NCAA.
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  #229  
Old 03-07-2019, 02:18 PM
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I am on record of saying right now, Dayton is a head of Indiana, and its not even close. Down year for A10 or not, IU is so below the Big 10 cutline, it is grotesque.

If Indiana makes the field as an at-large, without a runner up B10 appearance, then I file a motion on behalf of every greater bubble team fan in the nation.
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  #230  
Old 03-07-2019, 02:20 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
If we had legitimate first four consideration, I might buy this. I have noticed a pattern with the committee indicating a regional team needs to be in Dayton. Unfortunately for us, Ohio State losing last night may have bumped them into the first four conversation. I realize Joey brackets has them as a 10 right now, but a loss to Wisconsin on Sunday and an early exit from the Big Ten tournament may put the buckeyes in Dayton. Then you can completely forget about us being anywhere near there.
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If the Buckeyes are selected to play in the First Four in Dayton, then why canít our Dayton Flyers play a 1st Round NIT game ďat homeĒ in Columbus? I mean, remember all the whiny-a$$e$ who b!tched that our game against Providence at Nationwide Arena in 2015 was a ďhome gameĒ? Then, if OSU isnít using The Schott and/or the Blue Jackets arenít using Nationwide...
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
If the Buckeyes are selected to play in the First Four in Dayton, then why canít our Dayton Flyers play a 1st Round NIT game ďat homeĒ in Columbus? I mean, remember all the whiny-a$$e$ who b!tched that our game against Providence at Nationwide Arena in 2015 was a ďhome gameĒ? Then, if OSU isnít using The Schott and/or the Blue Jackets arenít using Nationwide...
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
I am on record of saying right now, Dayton is a head of Indiana, and its not even close. Down year for A10 or not, IU is so below the Big 10 cutline, it is grotesque.

If Indiana makes the field as an at-large, without a runner up B10 appearance, then I file a motion on behalf of every greater bubble team fan in the nation.
I believe you are discounting too heavily their SEVEN Quad 1 wins. Seven Q1 wins is as many or more than most of the teams that are projected to get TOP 4 seeds. After that, how do you balance their other wins, close/competitive losses and the 12 losses in 13 games streak?

I'm of the opinion that if they get to 18/19 wins, their Q1 wins will be too much for the committee to overlook and they'll probably get a bid.......in the First Four.

Not what I would necessarily do, but how I think the committee will evaluate those combined variables.
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
I believe you are discounting too heavily their SEVEN Quad 1 wins. Seven Q1 wins is as many or more than most of the teams that are projected to get TOP 4 seeds. After that, how do you balance their other wins, close/competitive losses and the 12 losses in 13 games streak?

It's easy. For a P-5 team one good win erases about four losses. For a mid-major one bad loss erases about four wins.
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  #234  
Old 03-07-2019, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
If the Buckeyes are selected to play in the First Four in Dayton, then why canít our Dayton Flyers play a 1st Round NIT game ďat homeĒ in Columbus? I mean, remember all the whiny-a$$e$ who b!tched that our game against Providence at Nationwide Arena in 2015 was a ďhome gameĒ? Then, if OSU isnít using The Schott and/or the Blue Jackets arenít using Nationwide...
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Why would we do that when we could play a first round NIT game at home on Thursday?
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Old 03-07-2019, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
For a P-5 team one good win erases about four losses. For a mid-major one bad loss erases about four wins.
ESPN needs to run this on a continuous loop on the bottom of the screen whenever talking bracketology!
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  #236  
Old 03-07-2019, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Joe Lunardi today:

Next Four Out:
Indiana
Creighton
Xavier
Dayton
Indiana LOL. After their loss to Illinois tonight they should be safely in.
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Old 03-07-2019, 04:43 PM
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I am surprised we are still in the bubble talk at this point. Beating the Dukes on the road is still very important.
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  #238  
Old 03-07-2019, 05:02 PM
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Progress

Seems to me that the fact that we are even having this discussion in the just the second season after a coaching change is a very positive development, indeed,...and, I think, unexpected.

Go Flyers!
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  #239  
Old 03-07-2019, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
ESPN needs to run this on a continuous loop on the bottom of the screen whenever talking bracketology!
You make a great point. Itís ridiculous that they consider a 3-9 record against Quad 1 teams better than a 2-2 record. Itís not just number of wins, but percentage of wins and number of losses thatís important.
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  #240  
Old 03-07-2019, 05:12 PM
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I have no idea what the committee is going to do
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  #241  
Old 03-07-2019, 05:16 PM
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Iím not counting on an at large even if we win Saturday and lose in the A10 finals to VCU. That performance would put them around a 3-4 seed in the NIT. I am counting on a strong refocused finish to this season and believe they can upset in the A10 and win the auto bid. Then we would be a dangerous team imho. Despite injuries this team has so far surpassed my expectations. Let the fun transpire.
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
I have no idea what the committee is going to do
I think it is correct to say, "never have, never will"
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
I have no idea what the committee is going to do

Yes you do... they'll screw over some middle ranged conference team so they can make room for the Syracuses, UCLAs and Indiana of the world.


Wash, rinse, repeat
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:38 PM
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Is there anywhere one can go to see the total quad 1, 2, etc. wins a team/conference has, outside their/its own conference?
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Old 03-07-2019, 05:49 PM
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The funny thing this year is that a year when the bubble is "soft" there aren't a lot of mid major teams that are on the bubble. Most of the ones that deserve to get in, Buffalo, Nevada, Wofford, are all probably locked in even if they don't win their conference. In past year's there were teams that weren't locks and when they lost their league tourney they were in the dark until selection Sunday, i.e. MTSU, Bonnies, etc. Most of the times those teams were left out sadly.
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Old 03-07-2019, 06:42 PM
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Joe Lunardi today, with some power rankings

Next Four Out (Sagarin, BPI, Teamcast, average):
Indiana . . . 35, 42, 51, 42.7
Creighton . . 45, 45, 48, 46.0
Xavier . . . . 58, 74, 58, 63.3
Dayton . . . . 65, 53, 56, 58.0

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  #247  
Old 03-07-2019, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Why would we do that when we could play a first round NIT game at home on Thursday?
Uhhhh...that was a joke, son.

It was my way of saying, if they DONíT let us host an NIT game on Thursday night at our own place, then we could host it at one of our other ďhome courtsĒ.
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Old 03-07-2019, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Uhhhh...that was a joke, son.

It was my way of saying, if they DONíT let us host an NIT game on Thursday night at our own place, then we could host it at one of our other ďhome courtsĒ.
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Especially if we draw the Providence Cooley Friars...
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  #249  
Old 03-08-2019, 09:48 AM
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Cool As Plain As the Nose on Our Faces

First round N.I.T. game will be Dayton @ Xavier
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  #250  
Old 03-08-2019, 03:41 PM
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What does VCU have to do to get in, other than win the A10? Let's say they lose the first game of the A10 tourney are they still in? How about the second?
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Old 03-08-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
What does VCU have to do to get in, other than win the A10? Let's say they lose the first game of the A10 tourney are they still in? How about the second?
Gotta think with a win tonight and 25 total wins they'd be in for sure even with a loss in either game of tourney.
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  #252  
Old 03-08-2019, 04:01 PM
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So assuming we (or someone else other than VCU) win the A10, we are a two bid league for sure?
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  #253  
Old 03-08-2019, 04:06 PM
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Iíd say VCU is safely in no matter what. A very solid 16-2 (or 15-3 at worst) Atlantic 10 regular season champ, road win at Texas and neutral win over Temple, probably should have/could have had another neutral win over St. Johnís with a different call on the last shot, and few bad losses. Thus, the A 10 would greatly benefit from a different team winning the automatic bid, if you know what I mean. @Atlantic10 (wink, nudge )
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  #254  
Old 03-08-2019, 05:04 PM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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VCU is safely in no matter what. Even though the A10 deserves to be a 1 bid league right now, it's hard to believe it will end up that way. I'm pretty sure someone other than VCU wins the tourney.
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  #255  
Old 03-08-2019, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
VCU is safely in no matter what. Even though the A10 deserves to be a 1 bid league right now, it's hard to believe it will end up that way. I'm pretty sure someone other than VCU wins the tourney.
Yep, they are safely in just like we were in 2015 when we lost to them in the A10 final.
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Old 03-08-2019, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Yep, they are safely in just like we were in 2015 when we lost to them in the A10 final.

Oh, I have little doubt that the selection committee would screw over the A 10 (especially in a down year like this), but I donít think Dayton finished first in the regular season that year. Has the A 10 regular season champ ever been left out of the Dance? Particularly one with a 16-2 (or similar) record and some decent non-con wins?
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Old 03-09-2019, 12:31 AM
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VCU-St Joe's Game

Caught a few minutes of the VCU game tonight and Joey Brackets said he thought VCU would be upset in the A-10 tourney. He said his pick is the Dayton Flyers because of the tandem Bigs of Toppin and Cunningham.
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  #258  
Old 03-09-2019, 09:06 PM
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Over in the BE, I have to wonder if St. Johnís hasnít effed-up their chances at an At Large bid. Their loss today to the Mouseketeers puts them at no better than 6th in the conference standings heading to MSG, depending on the outcome of DePaul @ Creighton. And their NET heading into today was mid-50s. Not exactly Dance-worthy.
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  #259  
Old 03-09-2019, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Over in the BE, I have to wonder if St. Johnís hasnít effed-up their chances at an At Large bid. Their loss today to the Mouseketeers puts them at no better than 6th in the conference standings heading to MSG, depending on the outcome of DePaul @ Creighton. And their NET heading into today was mid-50s. Not exactly Dance-worthy.
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Worse... they may have moved X into an at large.
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Old 03-09-2019, 09:30 PM
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G'town beat Marquette so they're in...maybe over _avier.
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:21 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
G'town beat Marquette so they're in...maybe over _avier.
If I were the NCAA I'd make **** sure Matty McClung is in the NCAA tournament.

Murray State winning might mean two bids from the OVC. If Belmont won Murray would've had a much tougher time (Ja or no Ja). By the same logic above they want Ja in the tournament too so maybe the OVC was always getting two bids.
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Old 03-09-2019, 11:30 PM
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Murray State wins:
Murray State 77, Belmont 65.

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Old 03-10-2019, 12:25 AM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
Worse... they may have moved X into an at large.
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Doubtful. Xís NET as of this morning was 73. Probably solidly in the NIT field, but about 20 slots below At Large territory. By comparison, Creighton had the 3rd best NET in the BE, and they were at 54.
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  #264  
Old 03-10-2019, 08:38 AM
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NET is no better than RPI. There are flaws in both. Both reward the circular, incestuous P5 conferences scheduling model of racking up wins in the non-conference and then reward teams for winning a few games against other conference teams that beat up on non-conference opponents. It still comes down to the committee rewarding 3-9 over 2-1 in top quad wins.

Belmont should be in. Clemson and NC State should not be close.
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  #265  
Old 03-10-2019, 12:27 PM
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NET formula for selection Sunday...

Power Five = (NET Score -10)
Everyone else = (NET Score +20)
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  #266  
Old 03-10-2019, 12:47 PM
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USA Today Sports' take

USA Today has our Flyers on the "Winners" side of Saturday's action..... FWIW

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nca...id=mailsignout

Last edited by Ivan; 03-10-2019 at 01:13 PM..
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  #267  
Old 03-10-2019, 04:48 PM
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NIT...

Davidson 3
UD 4
Xavier 4
Indiana 5
Providence 6
Wright State 7


https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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Old 03-10-2019, 05:32 PM
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It is what it is with the P5 schools, but I would love them to require any at-large team to be above .500 in their conference.
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  #269  
Old 03-10-2019, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Has the A 10 regular season champ ever been left out of the Dance? Particularly one with a 16-2 (or similar) record and some decent non-con wins?

No outright A-10 Champ has ever been left out. St Bonnie was left out a few years ago when they were tri-champs.
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Old 03-10-2019, 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
NIT...

Davidson 3
UD 4
Xavier 4
Indiana 5
Providence 6
Wright State 7


https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
UD a 4 and Indiana a 5? You know what that means . . . . . Biggest home game we've played in a looooong time.
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  #271  
Old 03-11-2019, 08:36 AM
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Monday morning of Championship Week update:

ESPN BRACKETOLOGY has Ohio State in First Four as 12 seed. They play Indiana in Big Ten Tournament.
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by N2663R View Post
UD a 4 and Indiana a 5? You know what that means . . . . . Biggest home game we've played in a looooong time.
I thought with the logistics of the NCAA first four in town, we could never host a home game.
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Monday morning of Championship Week update:

ESPN BRACKETOLOGY has Ohio State in First Four as 12 seed. They play Indiana in Big Ten Tournament.

So that basically tells us the winner of the Ohio State Indiana game goes to the first 4, assuming they donít win another game in the Big Ten tournament.
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Old 03-11-2019, 08:59 AM
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Perhaps, but neither deserves based on a win against the hapless other.

I think the winner of that game helps themselves, but taking a 25 point beat down in the next game against Michigan State, might very well undo the benefits of winning the day before.
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd View Post
So that basically tells us the winner of the Ohio State Indiana game goes to the first 4, assuming they donít win another game in the Big Ten tournament.
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The fact that either team is even being discussed speaks to the fallacy that is the NET and/or whatever being used to evaluate the field of 68. This tournament has not been about fielding the best at-large teams in many years, and this year will expose this more than any other.
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  #276  
Old 03-11-2019, 09:39 AM
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Indiana vs Ohio State is basically a play-in game. No guarantee the winner gets in, but the loser is out.
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
The fact that either team is even being discussed speaks to the fallacy that is the NET and/or whatever being used to evaluate the field of 68. This tournament has not been about fielding the best at-large teams in many years, and this year will expose this more than any other.
I donít think itís the NET that is keeping either one of these teams in the discussion. Neither has an impressive NET - Indiana at 51 and tOSU at 55. You could make that argument for Florida, Texas and perhaps Clemson, who are 33, 39 and 35 in the NET.

I think Indiana and tOSU might very well be a PLAY OUT game, particularly for tOSU, who has really been struggling and looked HORRIBLE for 37 minutes yesterday.

If Indiana loses, Iím not sure how much that really changes their resume. They have great wins, and plenty of them. Another loss is, just that, another loss. And they have plenty of them as well. But at what point is enough, enough?
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Old 03-11-2019, 09:58 AM
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You want some insight into the NET rankings - see Furman and Wofford's schedules. Schedule weak and beat everyone by 10 or more.

Now it will be interesting to see what the committee does with them.
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  #279  
Old 03-11-2019, 09:59 AM
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I am still utterly amazed that a 16-15 Texas team is not only still in the field but is still getting a bye.

If that doesn't show bias towards the power 5, then what does
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by rasta man View Post
I am still utterly amazed that a 16-15 Texas team is not only still in the field but is still getting a bye.

If that doesn't show bias towards the power 5, then what does
I know they have a ton of losses, but have you seen who they've beaten??

UNC, Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa State...

I don't think they should get a bid, but with wins like those, it would be hard to keep them out...same with IU/tOSU. Ohio State stinks and has 1 good win (@ Cincinnati in game #1)...how are they getting any attention? At least IU has some big wins (Louisville, 2X MSU,Marquette).
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
You want some insight into the NET rankings - see Furman and Wofford's schedules. Schedule weak and beat everyone by 10 or more.

Now it will be interesting to see what the committee does with them.
See NC State. Who has a NET of 32 and an RPI somewhere in the 80ís and a non-con SOS ranked 352 out of 353 D1 teams.
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:12 AM
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I believe the NET rankings is supposed to just be one of the rankings used, and perhaps used more as a guideline to determine quad 1/2 games than anything else. I believe the Kenpom ratings, sags, etc... all come into play.


FWIW, Indiana and OSU are both in the low 40s in Kenpom. Wofford is 20, Furman 55


UD is 58 in the current kenpom rankings.
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post

I think Indiana and tOSU might very well be a PLAY OUT game, particularly for tOSU, who has really been struggling and looked HORRIBLE for 37 minutes yesterday.
Actually it was 42 minutes. The first 37 and the 5 min OT.
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Old 03-11-2019, 10:35 AM
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Think about this - for being a P5 conference and the conference of champions at that, the Pac 12 is looking at getting 2 teams in. Maybe a 3rd if someone other than Washington or Arizona St win their tourney. For all the b!tching and moaning we hear from some about the lack of return that UD gets from the $s it spends on basketball, think of the collective $'s spent by the Pac 12 and the return they are getting.

Realize that in any given year, there are not that many at large bids that go to a team other than the P5 and the BE. While the AAC has stepped up, I think the BE and the Pac 12 have stepped back. Unfortunately, teams from the A10, OVC, MW that may normal pick up a couple of at large bids, have not set themselves up for at large bids this year. That is why you are seeing more of these cr@ppy B10 and ACC teams in the discussion.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:07 PM
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win.
Belmont and Lipscomb.
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Old 03-11-2019, 03:33 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Think about this - for being a P5 conference and the conference of champions at that, the Pac 12 is looking at getting 2 teams in. Maybe a 3rd if someone other than Washington or Arizona St win their tourney. For all the b!tching and moaning we hear from some about the lack of return that UD gets from the $s it spends on basketball, think of the collective $'s spent by the Pac 12 and the return they are getting.

Realize that in any given year, there are not that many at large bids that go to a team other than the P5 and the BE. While the AAC has stepped up, I think the BE and the Pac 12 have stepped back. Unfortunately, teams from the A10, OVC, MW that may normal pick up a couple of at large bids, have not set themselves up for at large bids this year. That is why you are seeing more of these cr@ppy B10 and ACC teams in the discussion.
Well, in terms of men's basketball annual revenue, we would be #2 if we were in the Pac12, behind only Arizona.

But, we would be only #10 in annual expenses.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2018...zaga-mid-major


Wow, we totally blow away the rest of the A10 in terms of revenue, we make almost double what #2 VCU makes.

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Old 03-11-2019, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win.
Wouldn't worry too much about that. They have SJU in there ahead of X who finished ahead of SJU in the conference, has beaten them twice by double digits (once without Marshall on X), played a much tougher OOC schedule and also has a bye compared to SJU having to play a 1st round game. If SJU loses they're OUT and if X wins one they're PROBABLY in 100%..

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Old 03-11-2019, 03:56 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Well, in terms of men's basketball annual revenue, we would be #2 if we were in the Pac12, behind only Arizona.

But, we would be only #10 in annual expenses.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2018...zaga-mid-major


Wow, we totally blow away the rest of the A10 in terms of revenue, we make almost double what #2 VCU makes.
This is the great thing about the school owning their arena. Many schools including some of the BE end up renting NBA type stadiums for their home games.
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Old 03-11-2019, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win.
It's a little surprising, but not necessarily shocking.

Can't recall who the 8 teams out were before and how the 16-teams (last 8 in and out) shuffled since then, and who came into the mix that wasn't there before.

All of their resumes have warts, with some substance as well. Dayton's doesn't have too many warts, but it overall lacks much substance.

I'd have a difficult time putting Dayton's resume over any of the one's listed.

I think he has the quartet of the non-P5 teams ranked accordingly in Belmont, Lipscomb, St. Mary's and Furman. Furman is dead in the water. Belmont and Lipscomb have a decent shot. St. Mary's has just one Q1 win. They're hurting.

Gtown has a 11 Q1/Q2 wins, but really just a few wins of significance - @Marquette, vs Nova and @St. John's. Probably vs Seton Hall too. They have 2 Q3 losses and a non-con SOS that's embarrassing, driving down their NET to 76.

tOSU is garbage. 4-9 in Q1 games. Soft non-con SOS. They've lost 6 out of 8.

I would have Indiana IN over tOSU, on the basis of their 6 Q1 wins.

Creighton is trash too. 3-10 in Q1 games. They've won 5 in a row, 4 against teams not in the bracket. They have a signature win @Marquette, but everybody's beaten Marquette the last 2/3 weeks, literally.

Clemson Seriously?? 1-9 in Q1 games and a soft non-con SOS. Their resume consists of home wins over Cuse and VTech.

Bama - 2-9 in Q1 games. They're hanging on to a win vs UK on Jan. 5th and have home wins over Ole Miss and Miss St. They've lost 6 of 8 and those 2 wins were garbage. The do own a win over Ja Morant and Murray St.

NC State - I believe they're the biggest fraud in this year's NCAA Tournament discussion. Their non-con SOS is the 2nd worst in the country, out of 353 teams. Any P5 team that plays that schedule should be automatically disqualified for tournament consideration. They have home wins over Cuse, Clemson and Auburn. Difference between RPI and NET is mid 80's vs 32.

TCU - Sweep of Iowa St. and Texas (2nd biggest fraud of tournament discussion). 3-8 in Q1 games. Have lost 6 of 8, including losses to WVU and Oklahoma St. Soft non-con schedule. 7-11 in B12. If they win their 1st B12 tourney game, they get to play Kstate probably without Dean Wade.

Texas - 39 NET and 16-15 overall. 6-11 sine Jan 8th. Clinging to 2018 wins over UNC, Purdue and a Wade-less KState team.

Florida - NET of 33 and a win at LSU. Throw in their win at home against Ole Miss and that is their resume. HUGE benefactor of the NET over RPI, with a NET of 33 vs RPI of 67. 17-14 overall. 3-11 in Q1 games.


In the end, having listed all of these details of crap P5 teams, the Flyers really don't have the resume that says they should be included ahead of them. Maybe in 6 days that looks a little different and one could make a case. Difficult to make one today.

My hopes are that the committee doesn't undervalue winning too much and boots teams like Texas, Florida, Creighton, Alabama and GTown.

I hope they punish P5 teams with pathetic non-con SOS's - like NCState, tOSU and Gtown.

And that they measure fairly the small schools who only got to play a handful of Q1 games, and won a couple of them - like Lipscomb, Belmont and UNC-Greensboro over P5 teams that got to play a dozen plus Q1 games and won 3 or less - like Clemson, Alabama, Florida, Creighton, NCState and TCU. Maybe even tOSU.
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  #291  
Old 03-11-2019, 04:53 PM
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I agree, the Flyers haven't done enough to make a case to get in. If anything, it is the opposite. They blew the chances they had.

The problem with evaluating SOS is that I'm not sure playing the 325th ranked team is that much different than playing the 175th team but in the metric it makes a big difference. To me NC St is the poster child for gaming the system. Beat up on the low teams and improve your efficiency numbers and thus your overall NET. They just lucked into it this year. I would be that is part of the concern of releasing the formula. Once teams know it, they can schedule and pay to game it.
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Old 03-12-2019, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I agree, the Flyers haven't done enough to make a case to get in. If anything, it is the opposite. They blew the chances they had.

The problem with evaluating SOS is that I'm not sure playing the 325th ranked team is that much different than playing the 175th team but in the metric it makes a big difference. To me NC St is the poster child for gaming the system. Beat up on the low teams and improve your efficiency numbers and thus your overall NET. They just lucked into it this year. I would be that is part of the concern of releasing the formula. Once teams know it, they can schedule and pay to game it.
It may have been an accident, but that it clearly points out how to game the system. NC State has squat for quality wins - especially away from home. At best, they should be one of the last four in, IMO. They are not a tourney ready team.
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Old 03-12-2019, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Belmont and Lipscomb.
Lets, examine your response and Buster's original question of " Not sure how we go from on the list of 'Next Four Out' to completely off the grid after a road win."?????

It is annoying that UD was in next four out, beat decent Duquesne in road game, but then falls off the chart. But remember, Belmont and Lipscomb played tournament games this week,, and both made it to the championship game, and UD was still playing regular season; thus Flyers still have chances to move back on to that list. If UD were to win games against SLU and Davidson, you can pretty much assume they will leap frog several of the below listed teams, especially the ones that are now done.


There are 12 teams below, and four of them are projected in the field (using current ESPN Bracketology) I assume if flyers win said games they automatically overtake Belmont, Furman, and Lipscomb...automatically because those schools are done playing. That leaves 9 schools from below list. If Saint Mary's goes down to zags, then Dayton would likely jumped Saint Mary's. That brings the list to eight; last four in and first four out; therefore, Dayton is hypothetically in the number five spot (or first team listed in next four out).

Two of the projected last four in teams, play each other in ACC Tournament, one is out, that moves UD to the fourth spot on below list (last team in the First Four Out). Another matchup of one team in the last four in and first four out is IU v. Ohio state, and one is likely out, that moves UD up to the third team out of the field. Again, thus far, assuming that wins against SLU and Davidson only move Flyers up one spot with each other variable occurring. But in reality, they might move up two or three spots just from a victory over Davidson. That could make the Flyers the first or second team out of the field.

TCU goes down to dog meat Oklahoma State, okay not likely, but possible

Creighton is also on the below list, and they play XU, who can easily beat them.


Alabama is on the below list, and they face Ole Miss, who has better record and can beat them.
Georgetown plays Seaton Hall, who has similar record, and can beat them.

I just accounted for all 12 teams on below bubble list, and you only need to over take nine of them. Three are already done, one plays the top ranked Gonzaga, four play each other in two separate games, and the winner of those two games gets Virginia and Mich. State respectively.

All things considered a potential win against Davidson would be a fairly significant win. You never know folks!

Last Four In:

NC State
TCU
Clemson
Ohio State

First Four Out:

Indiana
Belmont
Creighton
Alabama

Next Four Out:

Lipscomb
Georgetown
Saint Mary's
Furman

Last edited by Beatty Town Coach; 03-12-2019 at 06:28 PM..
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Old 03-12-2019, 06:56 PM
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If Dayton or Davidson make the final vs. VCU, I could see the committee taking both of the finalists regardless of outcome.
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Old 03-12-2019, 07:00 PM
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I averaged BPI, Pomeroy, Sagrin, and NET rankings for all the top teams as of 3/12 .Dayton average was 60. Lunardi has three teams in the tournament that average below Dayton: Ariz St (61); Temple (63) and St Johns (65). Lunardi also has 11 teams OUT of the tournament that average ahead of Dayton: St Mary's(38); Indiana(42); Nebraska(43); Penn St(44); Creighton(47); Oregon(51); Belmont(52); Furman (57); Lipscomb(58); Butler(59); and Alabama (59)

As long as there are teams that average below Dayton in the tournament, I think the Flyers have a chance. To increase their chances they must jump as many of those teams as possible by beating St Louis and Davidson.
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Old 03-12-2019, 07:34 PM
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Right, and several of the schools you list, like Penn State, Nebraska, Butler, really have very little chance per their records and/or their conference standing.
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:25 PM
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slightly off topic but right now Wright St is getting hammered by Northern Kentucky

Could we see a Gem City Jam in the NIT? man I hope not
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Old 03-12-2019, 08:38 PM
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Originally Posted by rasta man View Post
slightly off topic but right now Wright St is getting hammered by Northern Kentucky

Could we see a Gem City Jam in the NIT? man I hope not
Just checked one of the bracketing sites mentioned above, and they have us as the lowest of the 4-Seeds. Whoís the highest of the 5-Seeds, you may ask? The Norwood Ohio College of Mortuary Science and Plumbing Technology! Man, if we host a game against the Mouseketeers, Gov. DeWine might need to mobilize the National Guard.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:02 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Just checked one of the bracketing sites mentioned above, and they have us as the lowest of the 4-Seeds. Whoís the highest of the 5-Seeds, you may ask? The Norwood Ohio College of Mortuary Science and Plumbing Technology! Man, if we host a game against the Mouseketeers, Gov. DeWine might need to mobilize the National Guard.
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doubt we would be able to host X given the First Four which means maybe we can end our long national nightmare and win at X
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:20 PM
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That's why I say we need a confirmation regarding the NIT hosting issue.
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