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  #1  
Old 08-07-2015, 05:25 PM
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Ken Pomeroy on Defending the 3 - Defenses Have Little Control

Ken Pomeory has written some great blogs the last month+. http://kenpom.com/blog/

One of the things debated before, during, and after UD games is our great or terrible 3 point defense. I could quote a lot of post-game comments on the board when ones argues Dayton did a terrible job of defending the 3.

Ken preforms a great analysis that shows defenses have very little control over offensive free throw percentage (offenses control 98% and defenses control 2%). The next area where defenses have little control is 3 point defense -- offenses control 83% of the outcome and defenses only 17%. Variations in specific games are much more likely due to randomness or luck (or bad luck) of the offense than anything that defenses do. He identifies some exceptions like Kentucky, Arizona, and Baylor who consistently held offenses to less than their season averages in three point shooting.

But basically 3 point shooting is all about the offense's ability and has little do with defense. More about luck and variance in any game. On the other hand, defensives have much more control over 2 point attempts.
http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...int_percentage

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Old 08-08-2015, 12:52 PM
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Defense has little control over 3 point shooting? Maybe someone can spin the statistics but good defense makes a three point shot more difficult. Otherwise, all teams would play a packed in zone and try to stop the 2 point shot since defense makes no difference on the 3 point shot. Not logical.
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Old 08-08-2015, 02:04 PM
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I don't think this argument holds much water. You can't tell me that it's just as easy to shoot a 3 with a hand in your face as it is without. Open 3s go in at a higher clip than contested 3s. It might be the case that an offense that is proficient at creating open looks will trump a defense and it's ability to close out. Or maybe most defenses are just inconsistent.

If defense doesn't matter, then the graph below wouldn't show a such sharp decline in 3 point percentage as a defender gets closer to contest a shot. Granted, it's from the NBA, but I would highly suspect that the same would be true for the college game with fewer talented shooters.

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Old 08-10-2015, 08:39 AM
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I think you're both missing the point.

You're not assuming a minimum level of defensive pressure. Let's say on the scale of effort the defense always puts out between 80% - 99% (or the coach immediately benches the player). Further assume that the defensive talent ranges between 80% - 99% in most games (except when Kentucky plays Nobody State), with the center rarely guarding the PG. And further assume that the coach is not the dumbest human being on earth, so you don't pack in a tight zone against a great shooting team.

Now, what you're left with is the difference between a defender being 1 foot away from a shooter and 1.5 feet away from a shooter. It possible that there's little statistical difference in the outcome of that shot over the whole season. It's more controlled by elevation, travel schedule (how tired is the player), confidence, etc.
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Old 08-10-2015, 08:51 AM
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The concept is not surprising. Think about the games that are won and lost (UD V. Boise St.) on a critical 3 pointer. There are many games where if a critical 3 had dropped or not gone in, the outcome probably would have been different. Sometimes the man is closely guarded, other times he is wide open. It is more on the shooter.
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Old 08-10-2015, 12:24 PM
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Interesting bit from the article:

On a game level, there’s a lot of random variance in three-point shooting. So this result is not to say that a coach should pile up good shooters expecting to make a bulletproof offense. It’s simply that a good three-point offense will beat a good three-point defense over the long term. The offense controls most of what can be controlled, but randomness is a huge specter that looms over three-point shooting on a game level. Controlling for attempts, free throw shooting is most predictable, followed by two-point shooting, which is followed by three-point shooting.

Intuitively 3FGA are the easiest to take. Teams are rarely going to sell out guarding the arc because it leaves the paint open and the closer you get to the rim the more likely you are to make it. You can't really double on the perimeter effectively unless Brian Roberts is in the lineup and BG is on the sideline. Really good defensive teams are stingy in the paint and limit the amount of triples a team takes. Good defensive teams should influence the amount and quality of triples taken. Sometimes shooters make ridiculous shots. We've certainly seen it happen enough visitors to the Arena. I think it makes sense that defenses have little control over 3FG%. It's why a good 3PT shooting team is so dangerous for an upset in The Tourney, but also why it makes them unlikely to make a run.

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Old 08-10-2015, 12:32 PM
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Stephan Curry has never made 74 straight 3's in a HS, College or NBA games, has he?

But he has at practices...right?
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:27 PM
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Rollo, goes right to the jugular. Well played.
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
Stephan Curry has never made 74 straight 3's in a HS, College or NBA games, has he?

But he has at practices...right?
You're also missing the point entirely.

The point is not that "college defenses can't influence the 3 point shot so don't bother." The point is that when you compare the average quality of defense guarding the 3 point shooter in college to the superlative quality of defense guarding the 3 point shooter in college, the variation in made 3's is not very statistically significant.

It's more likely that when JS goes 1-6 in a game he was tired, not because of amazing defense.
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by sabo2 View Post
Rollo, goes right to the jugular. Well played.
I aim a little lower...
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo View Post
You're also missing the point entirely.

The point is not that "college defenses can't influence the 3 point shot so don't bother." The point is that when you compare the average quality of defense guarding the 3 point shooter in college to the superlative quality of defense guarding the 3 point shooter in college, the variation in made 3's is not very statistically significant.

It's more likely that when JS goes 1-6 in a game he was tired, not because of amazing defense.
I get the point entirely, I just don't like any study that uses 'averages' for anything since there is nary a point that can be accurately judged by such a simplistic assessment.

'average' temperature....'average' income...'average' height...batting 'average' ... they all give me an above average forecast with an exponentially increasing probability of experiencing explosive diarrhea within 2 standard deviations...of the average 52-year old vegetarian male pigmy!
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:43 PM
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Think about it like this. In the paint the defense has some advantages. Physical contact is acceptable. It's crowded for the shooter. There's less of a disadvantage to going for a shot fake and leaving your feet (more selling out for blocked shots) because you have weak side help close by to help. Often the dribble is already spent. All these things give the defense less of a disadvantage.

At the 3 point line the offense has every possible advantage. They know when they're going to shoot so they leave their feet first. The dribble is still alive so you have to be more careful about head fakes. There's little help, so 3's rarely get blocked.

The offense can get nearly the same 3 point shot nearly any time it wants, so great shooters can always settle for a 20 footer if they choose--and the defense cannot stop them. So why don't you just take that shot on every trip? Because 20 footers don't put as much pressure on the defense (fouls, easy 2's, it's a lower % shot).
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:47 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
I get the point entirely, I just don't like any study that uses 'averages' for anything since there is nary a point that can be accurately judged by such a simplistic assessment.

'average' temperature....'average' income...'average' height...batting 'average' ... they all give me an above average forecast with an exponentially increasing probability of experiencing explosive diarrhea within 2 standard deviations...of the average 52-year old vegetarian male pigmy!
He's not using simple averages. He's saying 2 standard deviations can be accounted for based on the shooter, and a gnat's arse worth of variation can be accounted for based on the defense. I'm not saying he's necessarily right but it makes sense to me.
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Old 08-10-2015, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by UDandBeer View Post
I don't think this argument holds much water. You can't tell me that it's just as easy to shoot a 3 with a hand in your face as it is without. Open 3s go in at a higher clip than contested 3s. It might be the case that an offense that is proficient at creating open looks will trump a defense and it's ability to close out. Or maybe most defenses are just inconsistent.
The offense still controls shot selection. If the offense is facing a defensive team that is good at closing out to shooters, they'll likely take fewer 3-pt shots. While they may take fewer 3-point shots, I wouldn't expect their to be much difference in percentage if they have any type of consistency in their shot selection.
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Old 08-10-2015, 10:21 PM
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Good thoughtful debate on the topic.

I find it interesting that defenses have 2% control on free throws. May be due to (1) who defenses foul ( they are more likey to foul bad shooters); and (2) good defenses wear out opposing teams which may impact free throw shooting.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...w_defense_real

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Old 08-11-2015, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Good thoughtful debate on the topic.

I find it interesting that defenses have 2% control on free throws. May be due to (1) who defenses foul ( they are more likey to foul bad shooters); and (2) good defenses wear out opposing teams which may impact free throw shooting.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...w_defense_real
I thought the same thing and could not come up with any other explanations.
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Old 08-11-2015, 10:54 AM
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I think the chart cited above supports the randomness. It's true the percentage is much lower when a defender is within three feet. But you aren't going to be within three feet on every three point attempt, no matter how solidly you defend.

What's noticeable to me is that the percentage after that changes little.
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