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  #101  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:11 AM
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I not worried about VCU. I'm worried about @Rhode Island and then @St. Louis, St. Bonnie, George Mason, and @Davidson. So much work to do before talking about a showdown with VCU. I have a lot of faith in Archie and our seniors, but the road is not an easy one and there's not a lot of room for error.
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  #102  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:16 AM
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I saw something "similar" in a late game situation b/w Ohio State the year they had "killer" macon, Greg Simpson (who's son is a pretty talented HS PG now, gosh I'm old), Dereck Anderson (?, the kid who transferred to Kentucky when the rest of that great class all fell apart), etc... and they were playing an Indiana squad that was one of the better teams in the country. Instead of running along the baseline, they had the kid storm up the sideline w/ a pick set that the defender didn't see. 2 free throws and I think the game went to OT.
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  #103  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
It's probably better that VCU won. We still need to play them and a loss to GW, which is not going to the tournament apart from winning the A10 tournament, would be worse. We only play GW once.

Bottom line, we are better off with the VCU win, as shady and unlikely that it was.
Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
I agree! I am not sure why so many people want VCU to lose. We want them to win so that we can add another top 50 win when we beat them March 1. A loss to the Bonnies and GW is not going to help that. Plus, we are tied with them, so we control our own fate.
I am not so sure at this point. I think we need to beat VCU regardless. I think short of an undisputed A10 regular season championship (which will require beating either URI or VCU or both) and a trip to the finals, we will still be seating out SS. VCU is one of those teams we may be fighting for an at large birth.
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  #104  
Old 02-09-2017, 10:24 AM
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For a "comfortable" at large berth, the Flyers need 24 wins with at least
one in the A10 T.
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  #105  
Old 02-09-2017, 10:37 AM
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what's "comfortable"? If they finish with 24 wins (including the win over the D2 school) and finish 1-1 in the A10, rpiforecast projects them somewhere around 25 in the RPI, I'm guessing they'd be about the same in kenpom as well. That may well get them into the dance as a 6 seed. I think they can afford two more regular season losses as well as a loss in the A10 and still make the field w/o having to show up at UD arena. But I'd rather just "win 'em all" and hope for a 5 seed the night of selection sunday.
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  #106  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I am not so sure at this point. I think we need to beat VCU regardless. I think short of an undisputed A10 regular season championship (which will require beating either URI or VCU or both) and a trip to the finals, we will still be seating out SS. VCU is one of those teams we may be fighting for an at large birth.
The biggest weakness of Dayton's resume is quality wins, more specifically, wins over teams that will be in the tournament. Dayton is fighting for a spot in the dance, yes with VCU, but also with 30-40 other teams. It's not as though Dayton and VCU are fighting for just one spot. I think it's more important that a potential win against VCU (could play twice more) have as much gloss on it as possible, rather than worry about them as another at large contender.
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  #107  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Swampy Meadows View Post
Kenny has VCU at #61 in Luck Factor. As a point of reference, UD is #253
When we played VCU back on 1/27, their luck ranking was #149. So, they have definitely shot up the charts regardless of how it is calculated.
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  #108  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:34 AM
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Question Question?

Originally Posted by rollo View Post
This is a no-brainer.

By definition, a defender cannot be in a legal defensive stance if he has a foot out of bounds. Which means any collision is a 'block' regardless of how long he was set or how hard he was run over.
By definition, Lewis was an offensive player, not a defender.
Also, an offensive player is allowed to run out of bound on the baseline during an inbound play after a made basket. If he wasn't allowed, then the play where an offensive player steps out and receives a pass on the baseline would be illegal.

I think there is some grey area here. I thought it was a good play except maybe Lewis hadn't fully established position and leaned in to assure contact.
My referee certification expired 23 years ago, so there's probably been some changes and clarifications since my last refresher course.
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  #109  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Browns View Post
Kenpom's luck factor does not work the way you're thinking it does. It is only used to explain the difference between his projections and actual outcomes.

Wait, so when his "projections" are wrong, he defines that as "luck"? LOL. Another math geek with too much time on his hands.
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  #110  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by DGO67 View Post
For a "comfortable" at large berth, the Flyers need 24 wins with at least
one in the A10 T.
18-5 now

7 games remaining in regular season
Atlantic 10 tourney

This site shows that if we get to 24 wins we are 97% in

So, we need to pick up 6 wins.
If we can go 5-2 the rest of the way, we need to win one game in the A10 tourney
If we go 4-3, we may need to win two in the A10 tourney and so on.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology
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  #111  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:51 AM
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I, for one, wanted VCU to lose. I'd love to see these seniors get an out-right regular season title to add to their resume. Barring an epic collapse down the stretch we're not missing the NCAA tourney this year, so I'm not worried about the potential additional top 50 win.
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  #112  
Old 02-09-2017, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by flyerfan4life View Post
I, for one, wanted VCU to lose. I'd love to see these seniors get an out-right regular season title to add to their resume. Barring an epic collapse down the stretch we're not missing the NCAA tourney this year, so I'm not worried about the potential additional top 50 win.
Which we would get if we beat them March 1. VCU also still has games at Richmond, At URI and At Dayton. Plenty of chances against better teams to lose to.
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  #113  
Old 02-09-2017, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
This is a no-brainer.

By definition, a defender cannot be in a legal defensive stance if he has a foot out of bounds. Which means any collision is a 'block' regardless of how long he was set or how hard he was run over. I chuckle when I hear coaches scream at their player to trap someone on the sidelines by straddling the sidelines...nothing like teaching a kid an illegal move!

The VCU play is genius...I haven't seen it work for 20 years though! Good for them that the ref missed the picker's foot being out of bounds.
Thanks again Ref Rollo for confirming what I thought after I noticed that on the replay.
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  #114  
Old 02-09-2017, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo View Post
This is a no-brainer.

By definition, a defender cannot be in a legal defensive stance if he has a foot out of bounds. Which means any collision is a 'block' regardless of how long he was set or how hard he was run over.
Next question - Since this play has to do with an out-of-bounds decision, is it reviewable? And if so, could the call be reversed since the penalty is just loss of the ball - not a judgement call of block vs charge. Should GDub have called for a replay review?
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  #115  
Old 02-09-2017, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Next question - Since this play has to do with an out-of-bounds decision, is it reviewable? And if so, could the call be reversed since the penalty is just loss of the ball - not a judgement call of block vs charge. Should GDub have called for a replay review?
Even though he was an offensive player and not a defender I believe the same rules would apply as to establishing out of bounds. This could not have been reviewed because the call was a foul call which is a judgement call.
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  #116  
Old 02-09-2017, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Next question - Since this play has to do with an out-of-bounds decision, is it reviewable? And if so, could the call be reversed since the penalty is just loss of the ball - not a judgement call of block vs charge. Should GDub have called for a replay review?
In this situation, the refs can only review the replay if they are discussing whether the foul (which can't be changed and is not reviewable) should be escalated to a flagrant 2.
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  #117  
Old 02-09-2017, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Which we would get if we beat them March 1. VCU also still has games at Richmond, At URI and At Dayton. Plenty of chances against better teams to lose to.
Doesn't matter...these are "what-if" scenarios. We still have to go to RI, Davidson and GW and play VCU at home. 2 VCU losses would sure be nice right about now. We'd be in the absolute driver's seat for a conference championship. Not sure how you can say you'd rather them win those games.
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  #118  
Old 02-09-2017, 02:08 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfan4life View Post
Doesn't matter...these are "what-if" scenarios. We still have to go to RI, Davidson and GW and play VCU at home. 2 VCU losses would sure be nice right about now. We'd be in the absolute driver's seat for a conference championship. Not sure how you can say you'd rather them win those games.
I'd rather them beat Bonnies and GW to avoid having a bad loss and hurting their RPI. Our resume lacks top 50 wins. We need to get as many of those as we can going forward. Winning that A10 regular season title outright would be nice...but I am more concerned about getting in the tournament with the best seed possible.
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  #119  
Old 02-09-2017, 02:21 PM
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Best case is the two teams meet on March 1st in Dayton with 15-2 records and winner take all. And then meet in the A10 tournament finals. That would put both teams in the NCAA tournament.
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  #120  
Old 02-09-2017, 02:42 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Which we would get if we beat them March 1. VCU also still has games at Richmond, At URI and At Dayton. Plenty of chances against better teams to lose to.
Don't leave URI out of the discussions. They have 3 losses now and will be favored in all their remaining games. If we end up tied with them we will need Richmond to get at least a share of third place. If Richmond is 3rd, we win tie breaker since we beat them and URI lost. If VCU gets 3rd alone, we would lose tie breaker because we would be 1-1 against them and URI would be 1-0. If Richmond and VCU are tied for 3/4 we would win tie breaker 2-1 against those teams vs URI's 1-1.
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Old 02-09-2017, 03:11 PM
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Spot on...if they Beat us Friday Rhody is in the drivers seat. They have the best schedule and when healthy they are better than VCU. Lets get Josh some time to get back at it. In Pitt we will need his Big Body against Rhody and VCU. We have several tough tests left and we need him coming in to place Sam. He will at the least be more physical and that's what this team needs. Free Kendal to play the 4 and By March we will be tough to beat. I have ZERO DOUBT that we win in Pitt...its our time.
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  #122  
Old 02-09-2017, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
I'd rather them beat Bonnies and GW to avoid having a bad loss and hurting their RPI. Our resume lacks top 50 wins. We need to get as many of those as we can going forward. Winning that A10 regular season title outright would be nice...but I am more concerned about getting in the tournament with the best seed possible.
If we win the regular season A10 tourney we're in. We're an 8 seed in most brackets right now...it would take a total collapse to not make the tourney.
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Old 02-09-2017, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfan4life View Post
If we win the regular season A10 tourney we're in. We're an 8 seed in most brackets right now...it would take a total collapse to not make the tourney.
If you win the A10 tourney, you get the automatic bid. If we win the A10 regular season, then we will certainly not have collapsed and will be getting an at-large bid.

What is the regular season A10 tourney?

As it relates to a total collapse, it all depends on your definition of a total collapse. With 7 games left and the A10 tourney, we cannot afford 4-4, and probably not even 5-3 to feel any sense of security.
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  #124  
Old 02-09-2017, 05:54 PM
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Originally Posted by flyerfan4life View Post
If we win the regular season A10 tourney we're in. We're an 8 seed in most brackets right now...it would take a total collapse to not make the tourney.
How did the Bonnies do in the NCAA Tournament last year?
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  #125  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:00 PM
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What does the NCAA do when a tag-team of refs blow a call that results in an unfair win that clearly violates NCAA Rules? (and this is a serious mistake)

Do they get a failing grade and go to the corner for awhile? Do they get a slap on the wrist and a childish warning "try not to do this again"?
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  #126  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:01 PM
UDTradition UDTradition is offline
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Also...do you think that the NCAA factors in 2 wins that some might feel are "beyond lucky"?
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  #127  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:03 PM
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I actually think Richmond is in a pretty good spot. They really have a soft remaining schedule.
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  #128  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:05 PM
UDDoug UDDoug is offline
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Originally Posted by jpk4ud View Post
Best case is the two teams meet on March 1st in Dayton with 15-2 records and winner take all. And then meet in the A10 tournament finals. That would put both teams in the NCAA tournament.
Pretty sure both teams have a game on March 4.
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  #129  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
How did the Bonnies do in the NCAA Tournament last year?
Bubble is weak this year. Was St bona an 8 seed in all brackets last year 3-4 weeks before the end of regular season? Rooting for VCU doesnt make any sense. Archie's first goal every year is to win the regular-season conference Championship. VCU winning those two games is without a doubt a damper on our chances to do so.
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  #130  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:35 PM
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I get the entire RPI thing, but I want to win the regular season conference title. That looks good to the committee. There are ways to do that even if we lose to VCU again. That possibly has gotten considerably smaller because of the two miracle victories. When you are down by one with 0.4 seconds left and in the backcourt you are supposed to lose. These two victories are more impossible than NE winning the Super Bowl down by 25.
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  #131  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:42 PM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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People who think this thing is close to a lock are misinformed. We have no big wins away from UD Arena (maybe Alabama) Im telling you i hate it but the fact of the matter is the non- Power 5 and Big East play by different rules. Its simple, win 3 of vs.VCU,@Rhody,@Davidson,@GW. Don't step on the remaining landmines. Cant lose in Pittsburgh until the Finals. Anything short of that we are sweating. I'd feel safe too until two years ago. We were a (UConn/SMU can't remember who) win away from missing entirely. EVERYONE and i mean EVERYONE had us a 7-10 and safely in.

We aint in until i hear Greg Gumbel say it.

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  #132  
Old 02-09-2017, 06:49 PM
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I agree our resume has some glaring holes in it and the A10 is not considered a very strong league this year. We are definitely not safe by any means and you know how many conference tourneys we've won so we know getting the automatic bid is not an easy thing to do. We need quality wins and VCU and URI offer those opportunities so them winning is what makes them quality wins. This league is is dangerously close to being a one bid league this year if the three top teams don't continue to win.
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  #133  
Old 02-09-2017, 07:26 PM
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Can someone explain why if the A10 is so weak, why is it only one slot below where they were the last two years? In fact SOS is 7th.
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  #134  
Old 02-09-2017, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Can someone explain why if the A10 is so weak, why is it only one slot below where they were the last two years? In fact SOS is 7th.
Very few signature wins. URI over Cinti is really the only one.
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  #135  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Can someone explain why if the A10 is so weak, why is it only one slot below where they were the last two years? In fact SOS is 7th.
Not sure where the A10 was in recent years, but here is the A10 record vs P5 conferences head to head:

ACC (2-8)
Big 10 (1-7)
Big 12 (0-4)
Big East (1-6)
P12 (1-0)

I think that says a lot right there

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  #136  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:46 PM
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SEC? The Big East is not P-5, though certainly high major.

Edit: Looks like 4-6 v. SEC.
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  #137  
Old 02-09-2017, 09:49 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
SEC? The Big East is not P-5, though certainly high major.

Edit: Looks like 4-6 v. SEC.
Forgot SEC, but point made nonetheless.
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Old 02-10-2017, 07:39 AM
BRob2Perryman3 BRob2Perryman3 is offline
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Re: Conference Tournament, this is the first year outside of UD Arena i think we are the hands down favorite to win the Tournament. Still, assuming we are #1 we should hope RI and VCU slot 2 and 3, which they should. Then it boils down to our Saturday opponent, who do we want at the 4 and 5 positions? LaSalle,Richmond and SBU are the likely candidates. i'd hope to see Lasalle on Saturday, they are essentially a functioning dumpster fire. And i've seen enough of that **** Cutting offense of Richmond's to last a lifetime. Dre Jones and T.J Cline are studs. Mooney knows what he's doing. Great coach. Adams and Mobley scare me at SBU, we know what happens when guards get hot in March. Again, Schmidt, great coach.

In the end i think we make it, but i think we have our best opportunity of the last 25 years to win an outright league title,win the A-10 tournament and make some real noise in March.

I'm really,really excited. In the end, Archie will find a way to get us in.
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  #139  
Old 02-10-2017, 08:20 AM
CE80 CE80 is offline
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
Re: Conference Tournament, this is the first year outside of UD Arena i think we are the hands down favorite to win the Tournament. Still, assuming we are #1 we should hope RI and VCU slot 2 and 3, which they should. Then it boils down to our Saturday opponent, who do we want at the 4 and 5 positions? LaSalle,Richmond and SBU are the likely candidates. i'd hope to see Lasalle on Saturday, they are essentially a functioning dumpster fire. And i've seen enough of that **** Cutting offense of Richmond's to last a lifetime. Dre Jones and T.J Cline are studs. Mooney knows what he's doing. Great coach. Adams and Mobley scare me at SBU, we know what happens when guards get hot in March. Again, Schmidt, great coach.

In the end i think we make it, but i think we have our best opportunity of the last 25 years to win an outright league title,win the A-10 tournament and make some real noise in March.

I'm really,really excited. In the end, Archie will find a way to get us in.
I don't know about hands down favorite but I think right now we are given the best odds of winning. I am betting they will do it. It will be a great way for this senior class to leave the A10. I will be there.
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  #140  
Old 02-10-2017, 10:21 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
Can someone explain why if the A10 is so weak, why is it only one slot below where they were the last two years? In fact SOS is 7th.
So based on the RPI and the lack of facts presented above, the A10 is not much weaker than previous years. Perception becomes reality.
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Old 02-10-2017, 01:16 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
So based on the RPI and the lack of facts presented above, the A10 is not much weaker than previous years. Perception becomes reality.
I don't have any hard statistical evidence but I would being the 8th best down from the 7th is significant. the AAC it number 7 and they are in a down year also. I can't believe I am say this but I am, the eye test tells me that the A10 is down.
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