|
|
|
12-02-2019, 12:08 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
2020 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities
While we wait for the rankings to come out, something to chew on.
Probabilities Through games of 12/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 52.43% 25.04% 11.33% 5.71% 2.96% 1.42% 0.70% 0.27% 0.10% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.91
VA Commonwealth 28.40% 29.63% 17.42% 10.42% 6.45% 3.69% 2.06% 1.09% 0.50% 0.22% 0.09% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 2.67
Richmond 6.14% 12.34% 16.29% 16.23% 14.27% 11.89% 8.60% 6.10% 3.86% 2.32% 1.21% 0.52% 0.18% 0.05% 4.77
Duquesne 5.06% 11.14% 16.63% 16.77% 14.68% 11.91% 8.88% 6.21% 3.94% 2.44% 1.38% 0.64% 0.28% 0.07% 4.88
Davidson 3.93% 10.13% 15.17% 16.46% 15.52% 12.92% 9.80% 6.76% 4.40% 2.55% 1.40% 0.63% 0.26% 0.07% 5.06
Rhode Island 2.66% 6.61% 11.27% 13.55% 14.52% 13.82% 11.82% 9.60% 6.60% 4.49% 2.71% 1.44% 0.68% 0.24% 5.83
St Louis 0.72% 2.31% 4.83% 7.54% 10.29% 12.87% 14.67% 13.84% 11.78% 8.83% 5.96% 3.68% 1.94% 0.75% 7.32
George Mason 0.41% 1.50% 3.18% 5.49% 8.03% 10.64% 12.72% 13.53% 12.95% 11.33% 8.93% 6.05% 3.57% 1.67% 8.07
St Bonaventure 0.16% 0.80% 2.19% 4.00% 5.96% 8.24% 10.45% 12.58% 13.86% 12.98% 11.18% 8.66% 5.75% 3.21% 8.78
La Salle 0.07% 0.27% 0.92% 1.80% 3.29% 5.37% 8.09% 10.79% 13.30% 14.74% 13.99% 12.10% 9.24% 6.04% 9.73
Fordham 0.03% 0.14% 0.50% 1.19% 2.25% 3.70% 5.86% 8.31% 11.26% 13.94% 15.66% 14.89% 12.82% 9.48% 10.38
Massachusetts 0.01% 0.08% 0.21% 0.58% 1.16% 2.15% 3.74% 5.96% 8.89% 12.04% 15.89% 18.83% 17.43% 13.05% 11.06
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.16% 0.33% 0.73% 1.35% 2.60% 4.50% 7.38% 11.19% 16.57% 24.37% 30.79% 12.21
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.13% 0.30% 0.66% 1.27% 2.38% 4.07% 6.73% 10.40% 15.97% 23.48% 34.57% 12.33
|
6 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-03-2019, 12:41 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,353
Thanks: 5,412
Thanked 9,809 Times in 4,072 Posts
|
|
This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to shocka43 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-03-2019, 08:25 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Obviously anything can happen, but A 95-ish percent chance of locking up a top four seed already is a nice thing to look at.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
12-03-2019, 08:51 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: PHL
Posts: 5,740
Thanks: 2,603
Thanked 2,337 Times in 1,410 Posts
|
|
How about 2021?
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Jeff For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-03-2019, 09:40 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by shocka43
This is my favorite continual post of the year because it determines when I decide to arrive in Brooklyn...
|
The issue of arrival has not been the problem in recent years - it's been the departure.
|
6 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-03-2019, 01:16 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Bluffton, SC
Posts: 22,162
Thanks: 17,552
Thanked 10,134 Times in 5,868 Posts
|
|
How are these probabilities determined?
|
12-04-2019, 04:37 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by jack72
How are these probabilities determined?
|
It's calculated based upon 100,000 simulations of the A-10 schedule determining the winner of each game according to KenPom Win Probabilities.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-09-2019, 11:04 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 12/8:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 57.50% 22.71% 10.17% 5.00% 2.51% 1.18% 0.58% 0.25% 0.08% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.80
VA Commonwealth 21.43% 27.58% 18.59% 12.48% 8.17% 5.23% 3.26% 1.84% 0.90% 0.35% 0.14% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 3.06
Richmond 8.04% 14.99% 17.18% 15.84% 13.58% 10.88% 7.91% 5.46% 3.32% 1.70% 0.74% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 4.44
Duquesne 4.11% 10.13% 14.44% 15.75% 14.91% 12.91% 10.16% 7.52% 4.92% 2.83% 1.44% 0.62% 0.22% 0.05% 5.13
Davidson 3.29% 8.95% 13.13% 14.86% 14.93% 13.66% 11.62% 8.58% 5.53% 3.10% 1.44% 0.63% 0.22% 0.06% 5.34
Rhode Island 3.73% 8.92% 12.82% 14.28% 14.37% 13.34% 11.20% 8.84% 6.00% 3.64% 1.79% 0.75% 0.27% 0.07% 5.42
St Louis 1.22% 3.66% 6.33% 9.15% 11.97% 14.09% 14.85% 13.68% 11.02% 7.23% 4.02% 1.83% 0.76% 0.20% 6.72
St Bonaventure 0.31% 1.46% 3.50% 5.67% 7.81% 10.46% 13.03% 14.45% 14.45% 12.12% 8.42% 4.82% 2.53% 0.96% 7.93
George Mason 0.28% 1.17% 2.52% 4.12% 6.44% 8.96% 11.76% 14.41% 15.17% 14.03% 10.09% 6.42% 3.45% 1.20% 8.37
La Salle 0.08% 0.34% 0.96% 1.92% 3.39% 5.36% 8.33% 11.65% 15.57% 16.99% 14.61% 10.50% 6.84% 3.46% 9.46
Fordham 0.00% 0.07% 0.27% 0.63% 1.20% 2.31% 3.95% 6.72% 10.25% 15.00% 18.86% 17.74% 13.83% 9.16% 10.75
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.16% 0.38% 0.85% 1.72% 3.16% 5.86% 10.24% 16.44% 22.37% 22.77% 15.97% 11.69
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.29% 0.64% 1.28% 2.59% 5.13% 8.87% 14.31% 20.17% 25.12% 21.44% 11.97
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.13% 0.35% 0.84% 1.80% 3.88% 7.71% 13.84% 23.93% 47.42% 12.91
|
12-09-2019, 11:17 AM
|
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Shenandoah Valley, Va.
Posts: 545
Thanks: 135
Thanked 183 Times in 96 Posts
|
|
I am surprised George Mason is so low and Richmond is so high. Seems like they are both the good surprises this year. Note: I have no idea who GM has played, but they ARE 10-1! Richmond has won some good games and are 8-1. Yet probability says UR 3rd, and GM 9th.
Davidson whoa... wish they can get it turned around before conference.
|
12-16-2019, 11:49 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 12/15:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 59.52% 20.72% 9.87% 5.03% 2.57% 1.31% 0.59% 0.28% 0.09% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.79
VA Commonwealth 15.33% 23.31% 18.72% 14.30% 10.58% 7.35% 5.05% 2.90% 1.58% 0.64% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 3.54
Duquesne 10.69% 19.02% 19.34% 16.12% 12.44% 8.99% 6.11% 3.84% 2.10% 0.90% 0.33% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00% 3.94
Richmond 6.33% 12.79% 14.97% 15.42% 14.50% 12.27% 9.39% 6.80% 4.24% 2.17% 0.78% 0.25% 0.09% 0.01% 4.77
Davidson 3.12% 9.38% 12.66% 14.78% 15.33% 14.10% 11.77% 8.99% 5.51% 2.75% 1.10% 0.37% 0.13% 0.02% 5.30
Rhode Island 3.21% 8.04% 11.45% 13.50% 14.23% 14.02% 12.31% 9.78% 6.88% 3.99% 1.64% 0.66% 0.24% 0.05% 5.59
St Louis 1.07% 3.32% 5.67% 8.42% 11.09% 13.74% 15.32% 14.93% 12.10% 8.23% 3.81% 1.63% 0.56% 0.14% 6.85
St Bonaventure 0.39% 1.81% 3.82% 5.98% 8.59% 11.17% 13.85% 15.13% 15.11% 12.00% 6.78% 3.36% 1.52% 0.50% 7.65
George Mason 0.26% 1.15% 2.31% 3.97% 6.09% 8.92% 11.92% 14.87% 16.67% 15.46% 9.69% 5.36% 2.55% 0.79% 8.31
La Salle 0.08% 0.44% 1.06% 2.14% 3.72% 6.11% 9.34% 13.29% 17.32% 18.75% 13.10% 8.21% 4.56% 1.87% 9.11
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.14% 0.34% 0.78% 1.66% 3.39% 6.54% 12.11% 20.11% 22.88% 19.90% 12.07% 11.49
Fordham 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.26% 0.56% 1.33% 2.79% 5.55% 10.35% 17.93% 21.56% 21.51% 18.00% 11.78
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.25% 0.61% 1.22% 2.55% 5.15% 9.72% 17.38% 22.11% 23.95% 16.94% 11.83
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.16% 0.45% 1.17% 2.91% 7.17% 13.46% 24.98% 49.62% 13.05
|
12-23-2019, 10:13 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 12/22:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 65.51% 18.50% 8.15% 3.96% 2.01% 1.06% 0.46% 0.23% 0.08% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.65
VA Commonwealth 12.37% 22.93% 18.19% 13.96% 10.84% 8.32% 5.95% 3.86% 2.18% 1.00% 0.31% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 3.79
Duquesne 7.27% 16.41% 17.78% 15.86% 13.12% 10.53% 7.86% 5.42% 3.35% 1.60% 0.57% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 4.39
Davidson 4.98% 14.09% 15.71% 15.46% 14.09% 11.97% 9.39% 6.73% 4.24% 2.15% 0.83% 0.27% 0.08% 0.01% 4.77
Richmond 3.44% 8.74% 11.40% 12.88% 13.65% 13.25% 12.07% 10.02% 7.53% 4.46% 1.77% 0.58% 0.20% 0.03% 5.61
Rhode Island 3.56% 9.22% 11.92% 13.16% 13.69% 13.12% 11.77% 9.86% 7.00% 4.09% 1.69% 0.66% 0.22% 0.04% 5.53
St Louis 1.93% 5.70% 8.35% 10.87% 12.40% 13.57% 14.14% 12.64% 9.84% 6.26% 2.78% 1.06% 0.36% 0.09% 6.26
George Mason 0.50% 1.92% 3.52% 5.45% 7.72% 10.17% 12.61% 14.92% 15.46% 13.73% 7.71% 3.91% 1.80% 0.59% 7.84
St Bonaventure 0.34% 1.87% 3.65% 5.71% 7.81% 10.03% 12.74% 14.95% 15.85% 13.33% 7.50% 3.87% 1.74% 0.62% 7.82
La Salle 0.12% 0.57% 1.19% 2.29% 3.79% 6.01% 8.86% 12.83% 17.10% 19.31% 13.10% 8.31% 4.51% 2.01% 9.11
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.04% 0.09% 0.23% 0.48% 1.02% 1.99% 3.80% 7.17% 12.91% 21.87% 21.82% 17.31% 11.28% 11.33
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.16% 0.44% 0.94% 1.99% 4.21% 8.36% 16.01% 21.95% 24.33% 21.52% 12.05
Fordham 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09% 0.18% 0.41% 0.94% 2.01% 4.30% 8.56% 16.34% 20.80% 22.82% 23.51% 12.06
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.10% 0.28% 0.75% 1.72% 4.22% 9.52% 16.50% 26.56% 40.29% 12.78
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
12-30-2019, 11:05 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 12/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 68.44% 18.40% 7.12% 3.23% 1.50% 0.77% 0.34% 0.14% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.56
VA Commonwealth 14.92% 28.04% 18.89% 13.13% 9.40% 6.40% 4.32% 2.62% 1.44% 0.62% 0.17% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 3.38
Davidson 4.44% 14.45% 16.49% 15.56% 13.75% 11.56% 9.16% 6.88% 4.18% 2.28% 0.85% 0.29% 0.10% 0.01% 4.77
Rhode Island 4.36% 12.44% 15.33% 15.27% 13.87% 11.80% 9.80% 7.61% 5.06% 2.75% 1.14% 0.42% 0.13% 0.03% 4.99
Duquesne 2.69% 8.47% 12.57% 14.13% 14.14% 13.31% 11.60% 9.52% 6.67% 4.12% 1.76% 0.75% 0.24% 0.05% 5.55
Richmond 2.68% 8.20% 11.28% 12.54% 13.41% 13.16% 12.19% 10.46% 7.80% 5.11% 2.12% 0.76% 0.25% 0.06% 5.76
St Louis 1.54% 5.33% 8.72% 11.20% 12.79% 13.50% 13.74% 12.35% 9.91% 6.54% 2.87% 1.10% 0.35% 0.09% 6.28
St Bonaventure 0.32% 1.95% 4.11% 6.11% 8.31% 10.62% 12.65% 14.11% 15.31% 13.04% 7.42% 3.73% 1.70% 0.62% 7.73
George Mason 0.47% 1.94% 3.77% 5.69% 7.58% 10.15% 12.40% 14.44% 15.38% 13.70% 8.07% 3.99% 1.80% 0.63% 7.84
La Salle 0.14% 0.75% 1.57% 2.73% 4.26% 6.62% 9.58% 13.23% 16.99% 18.31% 12.43% 7.52% 4.14% 1.74% 8.92
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.26% 0.51% 1.11% 1.99% 3.84% 7.05% 12.65% 21.62% 21.82% 17.73% 11.31% 11.34
G Washington 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.09% 0.26% 0.55% 1.06% 2.23% 4.63% 8.97% 17.05% 22.55% 23.22% 19.37% 11.93
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.07% 0.19% 0.35% 0.90% 1.84% 3.83% 8.01% 15.31% 20.67% 23.44% 25.35% 12.15
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.29% 0.72% 1.72% 3.88% 9.17% 16.37% 26.92% 40.76% 12.81
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-06-2020, 09:55 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 01/05:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 71.38% 18.49% 6.32% 2.48% 0.85% 0.33% 0.10% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.45
VA Commonwealth 15.07% 32.82% 21.17% 13.22% 8.13% 4.78% 2.68% 1.35% 0.58% 0.18% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.03
Richmond 6.58% 18.68% 20.86% 18.80% 13.76% 9.10% 5.78% 3.52% 1.85% 0.80% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 4.01
Duquesne 4.81% 16.58% 22.79% 19.88% 14.08% 9.42% 6.14% 3.46% 1.76% 0.79% 0.23% 0.05% 0.02% 0.00% 4.10
Davidson 0.99% 5.62% 10.29% 14.54% 17.25% 16.18% 13.50% 10.21% 6.44% 3.27% 1.19% 0.38% 0.11% 0.03% 5.71
Rhode Island 0.49% 2.60% 5.97% 9.80% 13.23% 15.49% 15.76% 14.38% 10.74% 6.76% 3.18% 1.15% 0.37% 0.09% 6.66
St Louis 0.41% 2.38% 5.30% 8.37% 12.29% 15.46% 16.73% 15.43% 11.91% 7.44% 3.08% 0.92% 0.23% 0.06% 6.80
St Bonaventure 0.24% 2.17% 5.30% 8.33% 11.62% 13.89% 15.22% 15.09% 13.02% 8.99% 4.11% 1.51% 0.42% 0.11% 7.00
La Salle 0.02% 0.41% 1.15% 2.44% 4.57% 7.48% 11.34% 15.66% 19.72% 18.09% 11.15% 5.24% 2.06% 0.67% 8.66
George Mason 0.02% 0.22% 0.73% 1.77% 3.32% 5.94% 8.76% 12.65% 17.41% 20.95% 15.09% 8.02% 3.77% 1.36% 9.21
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.33% 0.82% 1.64% 3.17% 5.91% 10.68% 17.89% 26.50% 17.88% 10.18% 4.88% 10.67
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.34% 0.85% 2.26% 5.77% 12.63% 23.68% 27.25% 27.07% 12.44
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.04% 0.12% 0.29% 0.87% 2.15% 5.36% 13.12% 22.27% 26.27% 29.49% 12.49
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.07% 0.20% 0.59% 1.49% 3.72% 9.48% 18.86% 29.32% 36.25% 12.76
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-06-2020, 02:07 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,297
Thanks: 455
Thanked 1,597 Times in 750 Posts
|
|
Refresh my memory... first four teams get a double bye?
|
01-06-2020, 02:57 PM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
I believe so, bottom for play to open things up, then move on to 8 teams playing 4 games day 2, then 8 more teams, including the top 4 seeds moving on to play 4 games day 3 then down like normal.
|
01-06-2020, 03:25 PM
|
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 8,042
Thanks: 8,803
Thanked 8,558 Times in 3,703 Posts
|
|
A10 Tourney bracket
https://atlantic10_ftp.sidearmsports...BB_Bracket.pdf
Flyers will look good on the #1 line winning three straight!
I already have the afternoon of Friday 13th marked off in my schedule. What bar is the lunch watch party being held?
Last edited by ClaytonFlyerFan; 01-06-2020 at 03:29 PM..
|
Mad Props to ClaytonFlyerFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-06-2020, 04:29 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan
A10 Tourney bracket
https://atlantic10_ftp.sidearmsports...BB_Bracket.pdf
Flyers will look good on the #1 line winning three straight!
I already have the afternoon of Friday 13th marked off in my schedule. What bar is the lunch watch party being held?
|
It is the goal to be in that slot but I don’t like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.
I’ll be at Barclays
Posted via Mobile Device
|
01-09-2020, 09:53 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 01/08:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 70.67% 18.53% 6.62% 2.66% 1.02% 0.36% 0.12% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.47
VA Commonwealth 13.98% 30.42% 20.95% 14.24% 8.96% 5.63% 3.33% 1.66% 0.62% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.18
Duquesne 5.99% 18.64% 23.43% 19.29% 14.07% 9.13% 5.30% 2.62% 1.05% 0.36% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.88
Richmond 7.03% 19.00% 20.98% 19.00% 13.35% 9.19% 5.74% 3.30% 1.59% 0.61% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 3.95
Rhode Island 0.95% 4.39% 8.68% 13.26% 17.12% 17.35% 15.28% 11.69% 6.48% 3.04% 1.22% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02% 5.88
St Bonaventure 0.72% 4.56% 9.14% 12.82% 15.86% 16.70% 15.46% 12.62% 7.22% 3.30% 1.18% 0.32% 0.09% 0.02% 5.93
Davidson 0.28% 2.21% 4.81% 8.82% 13.09% 16.84% 18.86% 17.20% 9.89% 4.88% 2.07% 0.76% 0.22% 0.06% 6.64
St Louis 0.37% 2.04% 4.59% 7.82% 11.94% 15.42% 18.22% 17.67% 11.98% 6.50% 2.62% 0.67% 0.16% 0.02% 6.83
La Salle 0.01% 0.14% 0.54% 1.26% 2.50% 4.93% 8.57% 14.63% 22.66% 20.83% 13.66% 6.72% 2.71% 0.86% 9.16
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.04% 0.14% 0.41% 1.03% 2.11% 4.11% 8.28% 16.24% 22.04% 22.74% 13.64% 6.79% 2.44% 10.18
George Mason 0.01% 0.02% 0.13% 0.40% 0.99% 2.11% 4.30% 8.17% 15.70% 22.09% 21.63% 13.96% 7.48% 3.00% 10.22
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.09% 0.31% 0.89% 2.98% 7.01% 14.35% 24.43% 27.12% 22.78% 12.29
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.11% 0.30% 0.88% 2.53% 6.31% 13.19% 23.02% 26.13% 27.49% 12.42
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.37% 1.08% 2.86% 7.03% 16.02% 29.20% 43.30% 12.98
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-09-2020, 11:42 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,353
Thanks: 5,412
Thanked 9,809 Times in 4,072 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
It is the goal to be in that slot but I don’t like playing at noon on Friday the 13th.
I’ll be at Barclays
Posted via Mobile Device
|
I don't either...I like that AM flight and the 6p game lol.
|
01-13-2020, 10:42 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 01/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 80.46% 12.45% 4.13% 1.75% 0.70% 0.35% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.32
Duquesne 7.16% 26.55% 20.95% 16.12% 12.04% 8.38% 5.41% 2.36% 0.78% 0.21% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.64
VA Commonwealth 4.12% 16.78% 17.25% 15.86% 14.38% 12.23% 9.64% 6.37% 2.39% 0.77% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.48
Rhode Island 3.43% 15.59% 16.73% 16.24% 14.37% 12.63% 10.27% 6.55% 2.93% 0.93% 0.29% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 4.61
St Louis 1.66% 8.98% 12.69% 14.90% 15.54% 15.36% 13.70% 9.90% 4.78% 1.85% 0.57% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 5.31
Richmond 1.95% 9.38% 12.31% 13.70% 14.93% 15.18% 13.65% 10.77% 5.28% 2.06% 0.63% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 5.37
St Bonaventure 1.03% 8.16% 10.92% 12.77% 14.64% 15.46% 15.70% 12.53% 5.61% 2.27% 0.72% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 5.61
Davidson 0.19% 1.92% 4.38% 7.07% 10.11% 13.93% 18.02% 22.11% 12.79% 6.05% 2.44% 0.74% 0.20% 0.04% 6.97
George Mason 0.01% 0.14% 0.39% 0.99% 1.93% 3.63% 6.91% 14.24% 28.30% 21.30% 12.59% 6.18% 2.62% 0.79% 9.24
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.05% 0.14% 0.32% 0.68% 1.47% 3.27% 7.50% 17.08% 23.68% 24.72% 12.99% 5.89% 2.24% 10.23
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.12% 0.29% 0.64% 1.32% 3.02% 6.26% 14.63% 26.44% 25.38% 13.70% 6.07% 2.10% 10.32
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.01% 0.04% 0.16% 0.82% 2.92% 7.24% 14.82% 27.01% 25.68% 21.30% 12.26
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.07% 0.37% 1.46% 3.88% 9.26% 20.35% 27.90% 36.69% 12.78
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.21% 1.05% 3.33% 8.34% 18.57% 31.60% 36.85% 12.86
|
01-13-2020, 11:01 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
These could certainly firm up a bunch over the next two weeks for UD, or fall apart.
|
01-13-2020, 03:40 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,353
Thanks: 5,412
Thanked 9,809 Times in 4,072 Posts
|
|
Glad to see Duquesne back in the hunt.
|
01-16-2020, 09:50 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 01/15:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 85.95% 9.61% 2.80% 1.06% 0.39% 0.14% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.21
Duquesne 3.97% 21.86% 19.52% 16.92% 14.53% 11.56% 8.26% 2.51% 0.67% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.02
Rhode Island 2.86% 16.76% 18.09% 17.29% 15.51% 12.99% 9.73% 4.67% 1.52% 0.44% 0.11% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40
Richmond 3.15% 16.95% 17.32% 16.53% 15.41% 13.62% 10.33% 4.55% 1.50% 0.50% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 4.43
VA Commonwealth 1.40% 12.62% 14.73% 15.45% 15.66% 15.47% 13.30% 7.77% 2.53% 0.80% 0.22% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 4.93
St Bonaventure 1.31% 12.54% 13.91% 14.96% 15.57% 16.05% 14.76% 7.81% 2.27% 0.65% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 4.97
St Louis 1.34% 9.16% 12.18% 14.39% 15.85% 16.42% 15.47% 9.69% 3.74% 1.34% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 5.29
Davidson 0.02% 0.44% 1.23% 2.73% 5.38% 9.68% 17.29% 31.13% 16.85% 8.63% 4.16% 1.74% 0.61% 0.14% 7.85
George Mason 0.00% 0.03% 0.11% 0.29% 0.68% 1.58% 4.12% 11.40% 24.22% 21.69% 16.86% 11.23% 5.71% 2.09% 9.93
La Salle 0.00% 0.03% 0.09% 0.27% 0.66% 1.49% 3.63% 9.01% 18.22% 23.56% 20.37% 13.98% 6.42% 2.30% 10.18
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.12% 0.34% 0.86% 2.39% 7.93% 17.75% 21.24% 21.46% 15.72% 8.69% 3.46% 10.46
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.48% 2.47% 7.05% 12.54% 18.90% 24.97% 21.16% 12.29% 11.67
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.15% 0.81% 2.56% 5.52% 10.79% 18.48% 27.48% 34.18% 12.62
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.26% 1.13% 2.93% 6.47% 13.68% 29.92% 45.55% 13.04
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-16-2020, 11:02 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
So, using these numbers, we have a 99.42% chance of finishing in the top 4. Duquesne checks in at 62.47, Rhode Island 55%, Richmond 53.95, VCU 44.2, Saint Bonaventure 42.72, and St. Louis at 37.07. finally, Davidson checks in at a measly 4.42%. Richmond VCU game on January 28 is monsterous in terms of getting the double bye.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
01-16-2020, 12:24 PM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Between Kroger & Esther Price
Posts: 5,728
Thanks: 9,093
Thanked 4,525 Times in 2,050 Posts
|
|
Richmond's odds just took a hit - Blake Francis (17.6 ppg) will miss 4-6 weeks with a fractured sternum.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-ba...ncis-4-6-weeks
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
|
01-20-2020, 09:36 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 1/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
Dayton 87.50% 8.83% 2.49% 0.78% 0.29% 0.09% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.18
Richmond 3.83% 21.30% 19.16% 16.61% 14.41% 11.83% 8.30% 3.49% 0.82% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.09
Duquesne 3.48% 20.33% 18.77% 16.99% 14.87% 12.35% 9.26% 3.11% 0.66% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.14
VA Commonwealth 1.85% 17.62% 17.60% 16.74% 15.65% 13.40% 9.76% 5.84% 1.23% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.45
Rhode Island 2.29% 15.34% 17.40% 17.32% 15.61% 13.77% 10.88% 5.86% 1.21% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.52
St Louis 0.47% 8.61% 12.15% 14.62% 16.31% 16.96% 16.05% 10.84% 3.09% 0.75% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.32
St Bonaventure 0.56% 7.36% 10.61% 13.10% 15.39% 17.65% 18.91% 12.32% 3.14% 0.79% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.51
Davidson 0.03% 0.59% 1.71% 3.56% 6.62% 11.49% 19.80% 34.48% 13.65% 5.36% 2.04% 0.60% 0.07% 0.00% 7.44
La Salle 0.00% 0.02% 0.08% 0.22% 0.54% 1.47% 3.57% 10.01% 26.30% 25.61% 19.49% 9.82% 2.76% 0.12% 9.80
George Mason 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% 0.19% 0.58% 1.78% 6.29% 21.28% 24.19% 21.86% 15.01% 7.95% 0.79% 10.36
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.10% 0.36% 1.36% 6.14% 20.51% 25.09% 24.39% 14.42% 6.90% 0.70% 10.38
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.06% 0.25% 1.30% 5.67% 10.59% 17.65% 32.27% 27.52% 4.67% 11.74
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.32% 2.45% 6.70% 13.86% 26.53% 47.24% 2.85% 12.17
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.24% 1.28% 7.57% 90.87% 13.89
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 11:57 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Right now I am more concerned with the 8/9 seeds. Winner plays the 1 seed at noon on Friday in Brooklyn. Don't want to see SLU in either of those slots.
|
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-20-2020, 01:04 PM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
Potential for separation this week.
UD vs bona, @ Richmond
Duquesne @ Rhody, @ UMass
If both sweep this week, it sets up a scenario where the winner not only commands the #1 seed, but also has a huge 2 game advantage over the rest of the field (everyone else would have at least 2 losses)
If that were to happen, plus VCU and SLU win all their games except vs UD or each other, its possible to have 3-4 teams in strong consideration come selection Sunday.
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
01-23-2020, 09:59 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 1/22:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 88.68% 8.43% 2.11% 0.56% 0.17% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.15 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 4.92% 31.06% 20.54% 15.61% 12.16% 8.33% 4.89% 2.17% 0.29% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.56 72.12% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.89% 25.45% 27.09% 17.94% 11.61% 7.51% 4.14% 2.04% 0.30% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.59 74.37% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 1.30% 16.27% 18.73% 19.24% 16.61% 12.61% 8.73% 5.39% 0.92% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.40 55.55% 99.97%
Duquesne 0.99% 9.75% 14.76% 19.51% 19.83% 16.50% 11.66% 5.54% 1.16% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.80 45.01% 99.94%
St Bonaventure 0.09% 4.69% 7.78% 11.27% 14.53% 18.02% 20.02% 17.73% 4.31% 1.20% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 5.95 23.83% 99.64%
St Louis 0.09% 3.35% 6.39% 10.39% 14.43% 18.36% 20.33% 18.93% 5.72% 1.65% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 6.16 20.22% 99.64%
Davidson 0.04% 0.98% 2.55% 5.25% 9.90% 16.46% 23.82% 28.10% 8.77% 2.91% 0.85% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 6.92 8.83% 98.80%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.11% 0.37% 1.06% 3.01% 8.91% 32.59% 24.51% 15.51% 8.29% 4.12% 1.48% 9.84 0.15% 70.60%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.11% 0.36% 0.96% 2.66% 7.11% 21.23% 27.47% 19.95% 11.62% 6.07% 2.46% 10.21 0.12% 59.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.12% 0.51% 2.86% 15.88% 21.71% 25.06% 18.09% 10.77% 4.99% 10.90 0.01% 41.09%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.12% 0.66% 4.21% 8.89% 15.83% 26.19% 25.81% 18.25% 12.13 0.00% 13.92%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.30% 2.87% 6.77% 13.43% 19.73% 26.22% 30.62% 12.50 0.00% 10.01%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.26% 1.75% 4.44% 8.72% 15.66% 26.92% 42.21% 12.87 0.00% 6.49%
|
4 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-27-2020, 09:39 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 1/26:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 94.72% 4.56% 0.56% 0.13% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06 99.97% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.90% 39.24% 28.40% 15.34% 7.38% 3.54% 1.58% 0.55% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.03 86.88% 100.00%
Richmond 0.36% 26.91% 22.01% 17.43% 13.84% 9.73% 6.06% 3.15% 0.43% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.90 66.71% 99.99%
VA Commonwealth 0.76% 18.91% 23.16% 21.17% 15.19% 10.26% 6.80% 3.32% 0.36% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.08 64.00% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.15% 2.95% 8.56% 15.29% 19.63% 19.61% 17.51% 12.57% 2.73% 0.75% 0.20% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 5.67 26.95% 99.75%
St Louis 0.06% 4.32% 8.42% 13.11% 16.32% 18.39% 18.75% 15.84% 3.64% 0.91% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 5.81 25.91% 99.75%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 1.40% 4.84% 9.76% 14.87% 18.81% 21.18% 22.13% 4.97% 1.51% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00% 6.35 16.01% 99.48%
Davidson 0.04% 1.71% 4.03% 7.67% 12.31% 18.18% 23.35% 24.96% 5.59% 1.60% 0.41% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 6.53 13.45% 99.44%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.14% 0.45% 1.43% 5.37% 27.23% 25.20% 19.28% 12.29% 6.63% 1.93% 10.26 0.05% 59.87%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.08% 0.28% 1.04% 4.76% 24.88% 24.59% 22.03% 14.82% 6.68% 0.81% 10.36 0.03% 55.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.20% 0.62% 1.81% 5.34% 17.89% 23.13% 22.17% 17.75% 8.18% 2.87% 10.56 0.04% 49.03%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.11% 0.45% 1.73% 9.33% 15.56% 21.55% 28.15% 17.13% 5.95% 11.38 0.01% 27.22%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.21% 2.43% 5.10% 9.81% 17.07% 32.03% 33.32% 12.70 0.00% 7.76%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.47% 1.51% 3.90% 9.63% 29.29% 55.11% 13.31 0.00% 2.07%
|
9 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
01-27-2020, 11:26 AM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,295
Thanks: 320
Thanked 501 Times in 314 Posts
|
|
That was a big jump from 88.68 to 94.72. I guess it reflects us now owning a tie-breaker over a team predicted to finish 3rd. That was Richmond's only game against us.
|
01-30-2020, 08:50 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 1/29:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 94.19% 5.32% 0.46% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.06 99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island 4.90% 51.22% 24.00% 11.95% 5.13% 1.97% 0.64% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.71 92.07% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.80% 22.70% 31.39% 20.27% 12.08% 7.18% 3.75% 1.64% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.66 75.16% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 12.61% 17.76% 19.62% 18.91% 15.80% 10.08% 4.29% 0.74% 0.13% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 4.59 50.03% 99.97%
St Louis 0.06% 5.01% 11.37% 16.38% 19.72% 19.18% 15.76% 10.45% 1.64% 0.34% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.36 32.82% 99.91%
Duquesne 0.01% 1.30% 7.00% 14.09% 18.98% 21.76% 22.88% 10.40% 2.65% 0.70% 0.19% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 5.82 22.40% 99.77%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.48% 6.67% 14.39% 18.56% 21.05% 20.03% 14.34% 2.77% 0.56% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 22.54% 99.85%
Davidson 0.00% 0.36% 1.33% 3.19% 6.31% 11.76% 21.55% 37.20% 12.81% 3.91% 1.25% 0.31% 0.03% 0.00% 7.40 4.89% 98.42%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.17% 0.70% 2.92% 11.59% 36.21% 23.68% 14.96% 7.71% 1.92% 0.08% 9.64 0.07% 75.34%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.17% 0.67% 2.59% 16.80% 26.20% 24.52% 18.03% 8.71% 2.27% 10.71 0.01% 46.48%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.25% 1.00% 4.03% 13.83% 20.26% 24.94% 23.96% 9.00% 2.67% 10.84 0.01% 39.43%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.17% 0.71% 3.18% 10.95% 20.62% 24.79% 28.07% 10.53% 0.93% 10.96 0.02% 35.69%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 1.33% 3.07% 6.97% 14.85% 37.41% 36.25% 12.92 0.00% 4.53%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.11% 0.51% 2.17% 6.99% 32.40% 57.81% 13.44 0.00% 0.63%
|
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-03-2020, 12:52 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/1:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 92.02% 7.62% 0.34% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08 99.99% 100.00%
Rhode Island 7.78% 65.90% 18.17% 5.50% 1.87% 0.59% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.30 97.36% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 13.52% 20.80% 20.30% 17.84% 14.29% 9.14% 3.84% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.42 54.67% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.05% 5.38% 28.72% 23.80% 17.58% 12.28% 7.62% 4.29% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 57.96% 100.00%
St Louis 0.08% 5.02% 13.67% 18.22% 19.13% 18.13% 14.76% 10.20% 0.70% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.21 37.00% 99.99%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.34% 8.57% 14.31% 18.20% 20.69% 19.78% 15.59% 1.36% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.78 24.23% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.89% 7.98% 13.75% 17.74% 21.05% 24.27% 12.46% 1.58% 0.24% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.82 22.62% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.33% 1.75% 4.09% 7.56% 12.65% 22.42% 42.44% 7.29% 1.23% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 7.13 6.17% 99.76%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.22% 1.26% 6.83% 42.26% 24.50% 15.52% 7.36% 1.93% 0.05% 9.75 0.01% 75.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.17% 1.05% 18.28% 27.12% 24.20% 17.16% 9.52% 2.47% 10.76 0.00% 46.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.32% 2.57% 16.98% 22.59% 25.39% 21.02% 8.69% 2.40% 10.80 0.00% 42.51%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.64% 8.96% 18.95% 24.11% 31.14% 15.07% 0.99% 11.25 0.00% 28.69%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 2.08% 4.63% 8.79% 17.71% 37.02% 29.70% 12.72 0.00% 6.79%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% 0.48% 1.72% 5.58% 27.77% 64.40% 13.54 0.00% 0.54%
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-06-2020, 12:29 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/5:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 92.37% 7.27% 0.33% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.08 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 7.52% 68.57% 17.29% 4.33% 1.50% 0.58% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.26 97.71% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.05% 5.45% 30.75% 23.17% 15.90% 11.47% 8.03% 4.94% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.42 59.42% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 13.08% 18.67% 19.88% 18.80% 14.94% 9.92% 4.45% 0.19% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.52 51.67% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.02% 2.22% 16.26% 23.39% 23.83% 19.96% 10.74% 3.31% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.90 41.89% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 2.00% 12.03% 17.91% 19.11% 18.69% 17.69% 12.24% 0.33% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.44 31.93% 100.00%
St Louis 0.01% 1.14% 3.41% 7.89% 13.66% 20.34% 26.47% 24.87% 1.91% 0.25% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.39 12.45% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.27% 1.26% 3.41% 7.17% 13.89% 25.84% 41.25% 5.70% 0.99% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 7.12 4.94% 99.78%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.41% 4.02% 38.10% 26.14% 18.35% 9.90% 2.96% 0.06% 10.00 0.00% 68.73%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.18% 1.19% 20.81% 25.83% 23.19% 17.14% 9.30% 2.33% 10.71 0.00% 48.04%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.41% 2.86% 18.90% 22.32% 23.82% 20.77% 8.49% 2.39% 10.74 0.00% 44.53%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.11% 0.76% 11.09% 18.85% 23.68% 29.95% 14.69% 0.85% 11.18 0.00% 30.82%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09% 2.47% 5.09% 9.09% 17.01% 37.89% 28.36% 12.68 0.00% 7.65%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.42% 1.63% 5.20% 26.66% 66.02% 13.56 0.00% 0.49%
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-06-2020, 12:50 PM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Thank you! I love this thread! now let’s roll St. Louis!
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-06-2020, 03:42 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
|
|
I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
02-06-2020, 04:32 PM
|
1st Lieutenant
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 107
Thanks: 16
Thanked 90 Times in 39 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
I'm intrigued.
We didn't play.
URI won.
Our chance of being #1 increased while URI declined.
I assumed it's based on URI having less games left to catch up or the strength of their remaining schedule went up since they were favored to beat UMass, thus their percentage decreased?
Not intuitive to me.
|
He is using Kenpom win probabilities which I believe can change based on the margin of victory or how your prior opponents fared in later games. Basically, Rhode Island's probability of winning its remaining games decreased slightly relative to UD's. Maybe they should have beaten UMass by more.
Or I could be completely off-base.
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to udpumpkin For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-06-2020, 05:32 PM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: greensboro, NC
Posts: 2,542
Thanks: 3,046
Thanked 1,086 Times in 640 Posts
|
|
but there are also 100,000
simulations being done by Dr Strange
and his multiverse, so....
umm.
okay, I'm going off course
disregard!...)
Go Flyers!
I like Doctor Strange, peeps..)
|
Mad Props to steverino015 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 09:26 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/9:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 88.80% 10.70% 0.46% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.12 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 11.12% 70.55% 14.49% 2.87% 0.75% 0.19% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.12 99.02% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.04% 4.57% 35.78% 25.80% 16.40% 9.45% 5.63% 2.27% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.17 66.19% 100.00%
Richmond 0.04% 10.41% 20.30% 22.84% 21.36% 13.88% 8.37% 2.74% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 53.58% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 2.86% 21.10% 28.49% 23.59% 12.49% 7.84% 3.58% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.60 52.46% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.20% 4.49% 11.27% 21.58% 33.50% 21.93% 6.52% 0.45% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.78 15.96% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.65% 2.94% 7.15% 12.09% 20.48% 29.68% 24.90% 1.81% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.48 10.74% 99.96%
Davidson 0.00% 0.05% 0.44% 1.57% 4.22% 9.89% 25.40% 50.28% 6.59% 1.26% 0.28% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 7.43 2.06% 99.69%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.27% 3.01% 31.22% 27.21% 20.32% 13.59% 4.32% 0.04% 10.22 0.00% 61.73%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.59% 4.70% 26.50% 23.47% 20.78% 18.29% 5.08% 0.55% 10.37 0.00% 55.31%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 1.31% 17.60% 22.72% 24.45% 25.11% 8.49% 0.09% 10.80 0.00% 41.86%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.63% 13.59% 20.16% 25.27% 24.15% 13.54% 2.57% 11.09 0.00% 34.47%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 2.05% 4.78% 8.32% 15.64% 42.69% 26.45% 12.71 0.00% 6.90%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.55% 3.18% 25.88% 70.30% 13.66 0.00% 0.09%
|
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 09:49 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
|
|
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 09:58 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
Rhode Island has the much easier stretch. We could split with Rhody and lose @ VCU and Rhody would control the 1 seed due to their sweep of VCU. However they lost to Richmond, where UD won, so if the tie breaker still comes down to record vs the 3rd place team, 4th, etc... then where Richmond vs VCU ends up in the standings could dictate a bunch.
One interesting quirk in their schedule...they have St Louis at home on March 1st and UD coming in 3 days later, seems like a "trap" game if I've ever seen one. Other than that they go to Davidson and should roll in their other games.
|
Mad Props to Medford For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 10:02 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Beavercreek Ohio
Posts: 3,602
Thanks: 2,978
Thanked 2,415 Times in 1,074 Posts
|
|
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
02-10-2020, 10:04 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
|
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 11:46 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
I am looking at the SLU 8/9 probabilities more than any other.
|
This! I don’t want to see them the rest of the year!
Posted via Mobile Device
|
Mad Props to Flyerferd For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 11:49 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by UDEE79
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
I believe you need to subscribe.
However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam"
http://www.barttorvik.com/#
|
02-10-2020, 01:52 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Oakwood, OH
Posts: 551
Thanks: 107
Thanked 390 Times in 172 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Medford
I believe you need to subscribe.
However, google Bart Torvik, he has something similar to kenpom and its free. Its not as popular as KenPom, he is the godfather after all, but its certainly "gaining steam"
http://www.barttorvik.com/#
|
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.
UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Go-UD-Go For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-10-2020, 02:19 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,840
Thanks: 2,659
Thanked 1,933 Times in 910 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution
|
I always overlook one minor detail.
|
02-10-2020, 04:20 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by UDEE79
LIBob do you have to subscribe to KenPom to get the win probabilities or do you derive the win probabilities from the KenPom scores that you can see on the free version of the site?
|
Yes, you need to subscribe. as someone else mentioned, you could go to Bart Torvik or Massey ratings. Their win probablities are usually within a percentage point or two of KenPom (This actually is my first year of subscribing to KenPom, I had used Massey up until this year.)
|
02-10-2020, 04:25 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by rollo
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
|
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.
I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things.
|
02-10-2020, 04:27 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
It had a lot to do with how badly Rhode Island beat GW on the road. For example, their win probability for the home game vs UD went from 33% to 38%. All their remaining probabilities went up similarly while UD's went down ever so slightly for their remaining games based upon how close the SLU game was.
I don't know if I necessarily agree with that, would like to see a bigger diminishing returns factor added in. But that just me, I love to tweak things.
|
I guess they will just have to play the games and we will see.
|
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-12-2020, 08:01 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by rollo
Interesting that we beat St. Louis and our probability to be the #1 seed dropped from 92ish% to 88ish%.
|
Let's see those probabilities today!
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
Mad Props to rollo For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-12-2020, 09:32 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by rollo
Let's see those probabilities today!
|
You asked for it.
Probabilities Through games of 2/11:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 95.23% 4.65% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.05 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 4.72% 73.28% 16.63% 3.94% 1.12% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.24 98.56% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.03% 4.87% 32.37% 25.85% 17.74% 10.17% 6.10% 2.80% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.26 63.13% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 5.01% 26.39% 29.69% 21.58% 9.62% 5.49% 2.21% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.30 61.10% 100.00%
Richmond 0.02% 11.18% 17.55% 22.17% 22.48% 14.57% 8.50% 3.44% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.51 50.93% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.22% 3.94% 10.21% 21.42% 34.62% 21.66% 7.37% 0.51% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.84 14.37% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.74% 2.41% 6.30% 10.95% 19.31% 28.71% 29.34% 1.98% 0.23% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.61 9.46% 99.97%
Davidson 0.00% 0.05% 0.58% 1.82% 4.70% 11.36% 28.49% 47.21% 4.90% 0.77% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 7.31 2.46% 99.88%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.22% 2.12% 32.36% 27.62% 20.56% 13.51% 3.59% 0.01% 10.21 0.00% 62.34%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.55% 3.87% 26.83% 24.06% 21.30% 19.00% 4.09% 0.27% 10.36 0.00% 55.34%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.18% 1.11% 17.97% 22.80% 24.90% 25.99% 6.98% 0.03% 10.77 0.00% 42.11%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.52% 13.99% 20.72% 26.11% 25.09% 11.85% 1.64% 11.03 0.00% 35.31%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.31% 3.72% 6.76% 14.56% 49.87% 23.76% 12.79 0.00% 5.04%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.23% 1.84% 23.62% 74.30% 13.72 0.00% 0.02%
|
12 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
cj (02-12-2020), ClaytonFlyerFan (02-12-2020), CT Flyer (02-12-2020), flyerfanatic86 (02-12-2020), frisco flyer (02-12-2020), fuz_forward (02-12-2020), MD Flyer Pride (02-12-2020), Radar (02-12-2020), rollo (02-12-2020), SeasonTicketFan (02-13-2020), UDEE79 (02-12-2020), UDGutter2 (02-12-2020) |
02-12-2020, 09:36 AM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,295
Thanks: 320
Thanked 501 Times in 314 Posts
|
|
Dayton is clearly in the driver's seat right now. If Rhode Island has a shot at number 1 in the regular season, it is only because they get help. That help is most likely to come from VCU. If we lose both the road games to RI and VCU but win our other games and RI wins out, there could be a tie at the top.
In that scenario, RI would win a tie breaker against us if VCU finishes in 3rd, because RI already won two games against VCU.
In that scenario, Dayton would win a tie breaker against RI if Richmond finishes 3rd, because RI lost to Richmond in their first match of the year.
|
Mad Props to udisit19 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-12-2020, 09:47 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: RolloCon
Posts: 16,551
Thanks: 16,238
Thanked 15,877 Times in 6,981 Posts
|
|
After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
__________________
I shaved my balls for this?
|
02-12-2020, 10:07 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Beavercreek Ohio
Posts: 3,602
Thanks: 2,978
Thanked 2,415 Times in 1,074 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by rollo
After last night, my hate for URI is almost equal to my hate for _avier basketball and _ichigan football.
|
shouldn't that be _RI then?
I like using their full name. "University of Rhode Island - New England (URINE)"
|
Mad Props to UDEE79 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-12-2020, 10:10 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Beavercreek Ohio
Posts: 3,602
Thanks: 2,978
Thanked 2,415 Times in 1,074 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
You can calculate them from the free front page on KenPom's site, but you need to know statistics and have the ability to calculate the cumulative distribution function for a normal distribution. The hidden parameter you need is the standard deviation for men's basketball. I found an article that said the standard deviation KenPom uses is 11 points.
UDEE79, you are enough of an engineer that you should be able to do this brother.
|
I am enough of an engineer to use someone else work if they already did it!
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to UDEE79 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-13-2020, 08:48 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
|
|
Down goes VCU
Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-13-2020, 08:59 AM
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
Although we are in firm control of the top spot, VCU going down to George Mason added extra grip to our hold.
Richmond moved into the 4 spot. Having defeated URI, they are now the tie breaker if the unthinkable were to happen and we somehow fall into a tie with URI (with a loss at URI).
|
Richmond hosts VCU Saturday afternoon...
|
02-13-2020, 09:50 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Root for Richmond. In the event we drop both games @VCU and @ URI; and URI wins out, the tiebreaker will come down of record against top team. URI has it if it is VCU because I believe 2-0 is better than 1-0. We are 1-0 vs Richmond vs their 0-1. If SLU was the one we have the 2-0. Hopefully same with Duquesne. That’s probably all that matters.
|
02-13-2020, 10:05 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/12:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 96.86% 3.04% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 3.08% 69.53% 22.22% 4.17% 0.78% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.31 99.00% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 20.01% 26.07% 24.81% 15.71% 8.20% 3.91% 1.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.83 70.94% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.01% 5.69% 32.02% 29.57% 17.70% 8.12% 4.82% 2.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.13 67.30% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.74% 12.54% 20.57% 24.27% 18.33% 13.83% 9.20% 0.45% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.28 33.86% 99.99%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.24% 3.94% 11.30% 23.01% 31.93% 20.95% 7.62% 0.88% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.81 15.48% 99.98%
St Louis 0.00% 0.67% 2.51% 7.32% 12.43% 20.16% 26.87% 27.51% 2.17% 0.33% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.53 10.49% 99.95%
Davidson 0.00% 0.08% 0.61% 2.25% 6.09% 12.94% 28.56% 45.09% 3.59% 0.64% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 7.20 2.94% 99.86%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.43% 2.60% 37.58% 29.06% 18.87% 8.47% 2.71% 0.21% 10.00 0.00% 69.74%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.26% 2.12% 27.93% 25.28% 22.52% 17.32% 4.52% 0.01% 10.38 0.00% 55.63%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.05% 0.20% 1.12% 14.69% 21.78% 25.97% 28.69% 7.46% 0.03% 10.88 0.00% 37.85%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.14% 1.45% 11.34% 19.84% 26.55% 32.51% 7.65% 0.52% 11.02 0.00% 32.76%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.34% 2.86% 5.73% 11.93% 53.62% 24.51% 12.87 0.00% 4.21%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.16% 1.06% 24.03% 74.73% 13.73 0.00% 0.02%
|
3 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-13-2020, 01:25 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
02-13-2020, 01:35 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
Not totally. Just the chance of not getting it is less than .01%. in fact in this simulation, UD did not get a double bye in 2 of the 100,000 simulations.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-13-2020, 01:35 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Oakwood, OH
Posts: 551
Thanks: 107
Thanked 390 Times in 172 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
Not quite. It means that if the odds from KenPom are correct it is vanishingly small that it would happen. Given that we lose the rest of our games and that the 2-5 folk win the rest of theirs, we probably could lose the double bye. But the odds of that happening are very small. We are extremely heavy favorites in most of our remaining games.
|
Mad Props to Go-UD-Go For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-13-2020, 11:41 PM
|
Major
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Oakwood, OH
Posts: 551
Thanks: 107
Thanked 390 Times in 172 Posts
|
|
LIBob,
I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.
91% @ Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @ URI
98% GW
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Go-UD-Go For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-14-2020, 07:42 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Maryland
Posts: 2,209
Thanks: 1,378
Thanked 1,170 Times in 508 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Go-UD-Go
LIBob,
I've been calculating winning percentages from KenPom's free first page. Can you tell me if these are the same as KenPom calculates behind the paywall? I have to guess at home advantage and his standard deviation of basketball scores. Thanks. I calculated these tonight 2/13/20.
91% @Umass
63% @Vcu
91% Duquesne
86% @GMU
90% Davidson
62% @URI
98% GW
|
Interestingly enough, your numbers matchup pretty closely to the "matchup predictor" on the ESPN app. +/- 2-3% points. Some are dead on.
|
Mad Props to MD Flyer Pride For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-14-2020, 09:27 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
As of This morning:
Sat Feb 15 199 Massachusetts W, 82-67 69 92% Away ×
Tue Feb 18 47 VCU W, 74-70 69 64% Away ×
Sat Feb 22 92 Duquesne W, 79-65 67 91% Home ×
Tue Feb 25 155 George Mason W, 78-66 67 87% Away ×
Fri Feb 28 86 Davidson W, 79-66 65 89% Home ×
Wed Mar 4 45 Rhode Island W, 76-72 70 63% Away ×
Sat Mar 7 226 George Washington W, 83-60 66 98% Home ×
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-14-2020, 03:50 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
|
|
Technically...
Originally Posted by CE80
Does this mean that regardless of what we do or anyone else for that matter, we are guaranteed the double bye?
|
If we were to go 0-7 and a perfect combination of statistically improbable other things occurred, we could finish 8th.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
02-14-2020, 04:26 PM
|
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,295
Thanks: 320
Thanked 501 Times in 314 Posts
|
|
A win against UMass would put us at 12-0 with only 6 games remaining and ensure we finish above both UMass and GW (both currently at 4-7).
SLU (6-5) hosts La Salle (2-9). SLU will be a heavy favorite.
Davidson (6-5) plays at St. Bonaventure (9-3) The Bonnie's conference schedule has been soft, but they are playing well in their last 3.
SLU and Davidson are almost eliminated from 1st place regular season finish.
Last edited by udisit19; 02-14-2020 at 04:31 PM..
|
02-17-2020, 09:47 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/16:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 98.03% 1.92% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.02 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 1.92% 60.75% 32.98% 3.27% 0.83% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 98.91% 100.00%
Richmond 0.06% 34.20% 35.47% 16.73% 7.76% 3.56% 1.72% 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.18 86.45% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.43% 16.48% 27.23% 21.04% 14.56% 11.57% 7.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.96 45.13% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.55% 6.61% 17.47% 23.73% 24.80% 17.13% 9.10% 0.58% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56 24.64% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.07% 3.51% 17.05% 19.11% 18.51% 18.65% 21.77% 1.20% 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.02 20.63% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.86% 3.11% 10.88% 13.89% 18.43% 23.09% 29.26% 0.43% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.35 14.85% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.23% 1.80% 7.36% 13.64% 19.86% 27.38% 28.35% 1.31% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.54 9.39% 100.00%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 0.34% 2.35% 64.71% 22.15% 7.81% 2.45% 0.11% 0.00% 9.42 0.00% 89.63%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.07% 0.63% 12.77% 29.18% 26.22% 26.09% 5.01% 0.02% 10.79 0.00% 42.67%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.12% 5.78% 30.75% 35.56% 20.03% 6.88% 0.88% 10.94 0.00% 36.66%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 12.53% 15.65% 24.73% 37.88% 8.21% 0.79% 11.15 0.00% 28.39%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.69% 1.95% 5.24% 11.64% 52.03% 28.45% 12.98 0.00% 2.65%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.43% 1.91% 27.78% 69.87% 13.67 0.00% 0.02%
|
8 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-18-2020, 11:59 PM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Maryland
Posts: 2,209
Thanks: 1,378
Thanked 1,170 Times in 508 Posts
|
|
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
02-19-2020, 03:13 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: It's hot and there is fire
Posts: 9,353
Thanks: 5,412
Thanked 9,809 Times in 4,072 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday.
|
Mad Props to shocka43 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 08:21 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
|
2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 09:15 AM
|
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 8,042
Thanks: 8,803
Thanked 8,558 Times in 3,703 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
Looking very strong for the #1 seed in the A10 tournament.
After tonight's A10 games, it looks like the 8 seed for the A10 tourney most likely will be either...
Davidson
Duquesne
VCU
St. Louis
Wow! That will be a tough matchup for the #1 seed. Good grief!
|
Davidson by far has the toughest schedule of those fighting for the 8th spot. Hoping they lose at least three of their last 5 as facing VCU or St. L for a third time is not how I would want to start the tourney.
|
Mad Props to ClaytonFlyerFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 09:20 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 9,001
Thanks: 3,691
Thanked 5,152 Times in 2,713 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by shocka43
Let's hope for an upset on Thursday.
|
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday.
|
02-19-2020, 09:22 AM
|
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 3,616
Thanks: 3,383
Thanked 3,108 Times in 1,418 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by cj
What game on Thursday? I don't see any A10 games on the calendar for Thursday.
|
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament.
|
Mad Props to m21eagle45 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 09:35 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by m21eagle45
I think he means the Thursday of the tournament.
|
and upset wouldn’t really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. It’s the only one of the 14s mentioned here we won’t seen twice.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-19-2020, 09:39 AM
|
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 8,042
Thanks: 8,803
Thanked 8,558 Times in 3,703 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
and upset wouldn’t really matter because more than likely if one of these teams is not number eight, they are number nine. We get the winner of the 8/9 game. So pick your poison I guess. I think if I had to pick an opponent, it would be Davidson. It’s the only one of the 14s mentioned here we won’t seen twice.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
The four teams listed above are in a battle for positions 5 through 8, #9 would more than likely be either GW or UMass
|
Mad Props to ClaytonFlyerFan For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 09:59 AM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
^
If you use Bart Torvik's system and expected outcome, the 8 & 9 seed would be Davidson vs GW. However, things are still very much up in the air. Any of those teams could fall down to the 8 or 9 seed line, all have tough matchups.
Davidson still has games vs Rhody and VCU plus @ Dayton and @ Richmond plus LaSalle at home. Is Davidson the team that smacked Bona around in Olean, and was the preseason #2 pick, or the team that allowed St joes to storm back from 19 down at half and pick up their first conference win of the year?
Davidson easily won over SLU at home, and would have the tie breaker if those two teams ended up tied for 7th, SLU has the next toughest slate ahead, with games @ Rhody plus home dates with VCU and Bona
Duquesne beat SLU (x2) and Davidson, hard to see them falling to the 8 seed at this point, a Win over GW tonight may just about lock that in.
VCU has the next 2 @ SLU and @ UMass, and close out @ Davidson. Win one of those and they probably stay in the top 7.
Lots of shuffling to be done before Brooklyn, can UD just get a triple bye and move straight to the semis?
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
02-19-2020, 10:03 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
After last night games, the Flyers are assured of a double bye.
|
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it.
|
5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-19-2020, 11:13 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by CE80
I still need the updated spreadsheet. It's like a drug. I need it.
|
Here you go.
Probabilities Through games of 2/18:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.47% 0.52% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.01 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.52% 62.32% 34.52% 2.25% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.40 99.61% 100.00%
Richmond 0.01% 34.97% 37.62% 18.32% 6.33% 2.09% 0.54% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.05 90.92% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.65% 19.26% 37.43% 19.41% 11.39% 7.65% 3.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.55 58.34% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.47% 6.43% 20.62% 32.08% 27.50% 9.64% 2.80% 0.40% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.22 27.52% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 1.16% 14.59% 21.95% 19.01% 20.98% 19.68% 2.17% 0.43% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.14 15.75% 99.98%
St Louis 0.00% 0.06% 0.76% 4.80% 12.30% 20.57% 27.90% 32.16% 1.31% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.72 5.63% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.24% 1.98% 7.58% 19.11% 31.99% 33.74% 4.80% 0.51% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.04 2.23% 99.95%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.17% 0.89% 5.10% 53.54% 27.10% 9.70% 3.29% 0.19% 0.00% 9.50 0.00% 86.82%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.38% 2.24% 22.33% 36.13% 23.53% 14.40% 0.89% 0.00% 10.27 0.00% 61.18%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.26% 4.92% 20.97% 39.93% 23.32% 8.53% 2.05% 11.15 0.00% 26.17%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 10.03% 13.32% 21.09% 43.28% 9.44% 2.13% 11.33 0.00% 24.06%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 1.35% 4.05% 9.99% 38.48% 45.63% 13.22 0.00% 1.85%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 1.62% 5.72% 42.47% 50.18% 13.41 0.00% 0.02%
|
9 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-20-2020, 02:33 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/19:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.60% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.40% 59.37% 37.98% 2.03% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.42 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 38.61% 40.05% 17.39% 2.83% 0.82% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.88 96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.49% 18.60% 42.09% 20.37% 9.28% 5.54% 2.62% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 16.91% 26.18% 20.53% 17.61% 14.45% 2.74% 0.80% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.96 17.68% 99.98%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.04% 1.32% 9.44% 24.10% 30.06% 20.60% 10.52% 3.44% 0.48% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.07 10.80% 99.99%
St Louis 0.00% 0.08% 0.95% 8.47% 15.22% 19.68% 24.67% 27.73% 2.92% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.55 9.50% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.33% 3.66% 10.86% 18.44% 26.12% 26.86% 12.58% 1.05% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.03 4.00% 99.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 1.01% 4.66% 15.10% 61.18% 15.04% 2.61% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 8.92 0.00% 97.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 0.53% 1.79% 8.94% 47.11% 25.59% 15.34% 0.51% 0.00% 10.43 0.00% 58.56%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.78% 7.44% 15.92% 27.30% 44.52% 3.84% 0.20% 11.20 0.00% 24.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.74% 19.13% 41.21% 26.97% 9.51% 2.32% 11.32 0.00% 19.99%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 5.36% 47.80% 45.25% 13.37 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.20% 1.58% 7.63% 38.34% 52.23% 13.41 0.00% 0.22%
|
6 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-20-2020, 03:36 PM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Thanks. I was flatlining.
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-23-2020, 12:13 PM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/22:
There is a greater probability that VCU will have to play on Wednesday than UD falling to the #2 seed. What a time to be alive!!
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 99.60% 0.40% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.40% 59.37% 37.98% 2.03% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.42 99.78% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 38.61% 40.05% 17.39% 2.83% 0.82% 0.26% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.88 96.05% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 1.49% 18.60% 42.09% 20.37% 9.28% 5.54% 2.62% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.44 62.18% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.77% 16.91% 26.18% 20.53% 17.61% 14.45% 2.74% 0.80% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.96 17.68% 99.98%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.04% 1.32% 9.44% 24.10% 30.06% 20.60% 10.52% 3.44% 0.48% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.07 10.80% 99.99%
St Louis 0.00% 0.08% 0.95% 8.47% 15.22% 19.68% 24.67% 27.73% 2.92% 0.28% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.55 9.50% 99.99%
Davidson 0.00% 0.01% 0.33% 3.66% 10.86% 18.44% 26.12% 26.86% 12.58% 1.05% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.03 4.00% 99.91%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.23% 1.01% 4.66% 15.10% 61.18% 15.04% 2.61% 0.18% 0.00% 0.00% 8.92 0.00% 97.22%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 0.53% 1.79% 8.94% 47.11% 25.59% 15.34% 0.51% 0.00% 10.43 0.00% 58.56%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.78% 7.44% 15.92% 27.30% 44.52% 3.84% 0.20% 11.20 0.00% 24.14%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 0.74% 19.13% 41.21% 26.97% 9.51% 2.32% 11.32 0.00% 19.99%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.59% 5.36% 47.80% 45.25% 13.37 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.20% 1.58% 7.63% 38.34% 52.23% 13.41 0.00% 0.22%
|
7 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-24-2020, 09:53 AM
|
Colonel
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,042
Thanks: 0
Thanked 420 Times in 264 Posts
|
|
Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-24-2020, 10:01 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
I'm feeling pretty good about our chances of playing at noon on Friday.
|
Mad Props to CE80 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-24-2020, 10:26 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Flyerferd
Really hoping St. Louis hangs onto the app seventh spot. I have a feeling the Atlantic 10 tournament could be very weird
Posted via Mobile Device
|
It's about a 70% chance that they end up 7 or better. They'd have a shot at a double buy from a record standpoint but they get killed with the tiebreakers.
|
02-24-2020, 10:35 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
|
|
If the season ended today
UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-24-2020, 10:36 AM
|
Major General
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2001
Posts: 3,817
Thanks: 2,633
Thanked 2,700 Times in 1,283 Posts
|
|
LIBob, do you know the "Predict the Score" algorithm???
|
02-24-2020, 10:43 AM
|
General of the Air Force
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 7,778
Thanks: 5,498
Thanked 6,255 Times in 3,097 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
UD would await the winner of #8 VCU vs #9 GW.
|
I think I would almost rather have the 3 slot than the 1 slot in this scenario.
|
02-24-2020, 11:10 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 313
Thanks: 108
Thanked 145 Times in 72 Posts
|
|
Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
|
02-24-2020, 11:31 AM
|
|
I Am A Statistical God
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Riverside, Ohio
Posts: 5,503
Thanks: 4,688
Thanked 6,152 Times in 2,316 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LI2UD2PA
Looking to catch a game in Brooklyn with my son, sister and brother all UD alum. My brother is in a wheel chair due to a stroke so we will be looking for specific seating. When will the day and times be announced? Hoping for Friday at noon.
|
The A10 bracket with seeds and times are already up and running.
LIBob's probabilities, based on thousands of runs have UD as a #1 seed at 99.60%. The Figstats probabilities based on all 268,435,456 results have UD as a #1 seed 98.89%. It would require a lot for UD to not get the #1 seed.
With that said, the #1 seed plays Friday at noon, then Saturday at 1pm, and Sunday at 1pm.
|
Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-24-2020, 11:38 AM
|
|
|
|
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
Posts: 2,663
Thanks: 1,924
Thanked 2,208 Times in 974 Posts
|
|
__________________
Be the reason that someone SMILES today.
|
02-27-2020, 10:50 AM
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 396
Thanks: 188
Thanked 584 Times in 186 Posts
|
|
Probabilities Through games of 2/10:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.00% 61.76% 35.23% 2.76% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 99.76% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 36.74% 39.44% 16.55% 5.28% 1.31% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.97 92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.97% 17.77% 43.01% 17.13% 14.36% 6.43% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.47 61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 3.07% 17.62% 40.38% 20.50% 12.84% 4.43% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.39 20.82% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.38% 3.16% 13.75% 19.54% 24.18% 33.08% 5.75% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 17.29% 100.00%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 1.34% 6.16% 14.18% 29.63% 27.25% 21.12% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.40 7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 3.18% 9.72% 17.93% 42.85% 20.53% 5.52% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.84 0.15% 99.88%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.29% 1.72% 19.46% 45.17% 24.12% 8.79% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19 0.00% 90.84%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 6.06% 23.44% 55.47% 14.28% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 9.80 0.00% 85.03%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.89% 12.63% 29.66% 48.56% 0.26% 0.00% 11.19 0.00% 21.52%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 2.25% 47.15% 48.10% 2.02% 0.00% 11.49 0.00% 2.74%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 59.81% 39.93% 13.40 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.02% 37.91% 60.07% 13.58 0.00% 0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed.
|
Mad Props to LIBob For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-27-2020, 11:19 AM
|
|
Captain
|
|
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 419
Thanks: 306
Thanked 556 Times in 190 Posts
|
|
I'm going to print out 20,000 pages of this and wallpaper my home with it
Posted via Mobile Device
|
02-27-2020, 11:46 AM
|
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,946
Thanks: 4,452
Thanked 1,414 Times in 671 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by LIBob
Probabilities Through games of 2/10:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average SeedDouble Bye Bye
Dayton 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00 100.00% 100.00%
Rhode Island 0.00% 61.76% 35.23% 2.76% 0.24% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.41 99.76% 100.00%
Richmond 0.00% 36.74% 39.44% 16.55% 5.28% 1.31% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.97 92.72% 100.00%
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.97% 17.77% 43.01% 17.13% 14.36% 6.43% 0.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.47 61.74% 100.00%
Duquesne 0.00% 0.13% 3.07% 17.62% 40.38% 20.50% 12.84% 4.43% 1.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.39 20.82% 100.00%
St Louis 0.00% 0.38% 3.16% 13.75% 19.54% 24.18% 33.08% 5.75% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.87 17.29% 100.00%
Davidson 0.00% 0.03% 1.34% 6.16% 14.18% 29.63% 27.25% 21.12% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.40 7.53% 100.00%
VA Commonwealth 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.15% 3.18% 9.72% 17.93% 42.85% 20.53% 5.52% 0.13% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 7.84 0.15% 99.88%
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07% 0.29% 1.72% 19.46% 45.17% 24.12% 8.79% 0.37% 0.00% 0.00% 9.19 0.00% 90.84%
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.06% 6.06% 23.44% 55.47% 14.28% 0.69% 0.00% 0.00% 9.80 0.00% 85.03%
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.89% 12.63% 29.66% 48.56% 0.26% 0.00% 11.19 0.00% 21.52%
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.48% 2.25% 47.15% 48.10% 2.02% 0.00% 11.49 0.00% 2.74%
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.26% 59.81% 39.93% 13.40 0.00% 0.00%
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.02% 37.91% 60.07% 13.58 0.00% 0.00%
Note: Although Dayton appears as a 100% chance for a number 1 seed, they have not clinched it. 1 of the 100,000 placed them at the #2 seed.
|
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game
|
Mad Props to flyerfanatic86 For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-27-2020, 12:06 PM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Between Kroger & Esther Price
Posts: 5,728
Thanks: 9,093
Thanked 4,525 Times in 2,050 Posts
|
|
Am I Right?
So, if these projections hold:
1) Dayton vs 8) VCU / 9) UMass
2) RI vs 7) Davidson / 10) GW
3) Richmond vs 6) St Louis / 11) La Salle / 14) Fordham
4) St Bona vs 5) Duquesne / 12) GM / 13) St Joe's
I like that bracket.
_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink
|
|
|
|
St Bonaventure
|
|
SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mad Props to Glen Clark For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
02-27-2020, 01:20 PM
|
|
|
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 9,571
Thanks: 3,383
Thanked 6,618 Times in 3,024 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by flyerfanatic86
The best part is seeing how unlikely it is that we play SLU in the first game
|
Agree. I do not want St Louis!
|
02-27-2020, 04:46 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,840
Thanks: 2,659
Thanked 1,933 Times in 910 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by longtimefan
Agree. I do not want St Louis!
|
I DO want SLU again. I'd like a third bite at that apple to see if we can put the beatdown on them that they deserve. Yes, they match with us well and have done a GREAT job of taking away some of things that we like to do and do well, but I say bring them on again and let US impose our will...…….and shoot maybe 12-20 from three-point range to boot.
|
02-27-2020, 05:24 PM
|
General
|
|
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Dayton
Posts: 6,733
Thanks: 673
Thanked 4,320 Times in 2,124 Posts
|
|
I actually agree with SLUFLYER, If UD's tournament dreams are locked up, and the only difference is b/w a 1 & a 2 seed, give them the challenge that will prepare them for the bigger stage a week later. Lord knows there will be some tough, physical grind out games to be won, the more practice the better (provided no injuries of course, that will be the biggest take away from Brooklyn)
|
02-27-2020, 05:30 PM
|
Brigadier General
|
|
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 2,840
Thanks: 2,659
Thanked 1,933 Times in 910 Posts
|
|
Originally Posted by Medford
I actually agree with SLUFLYER
|
Bro, you say it like it's against your nature? Or a shockingly recent development? Where's the love?
|
Mad Props to SLUFLYER For This Totally Excellent Post:
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|