Official march madness projection thread

[udflyerfan]

At Least We are In Discussion....................need to close out strong.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...week-15/page/4

[Medford]

Lunardi, Palm and various other media members did their now annual "mock selection" process with the NCAA tournament committee the last couple of days. FWIW, I don't think the selection committee tells them who to pick or how, but guides them thru the process, so this field doesn't particuarly match the field of the selection committee should they start the tournament tomorrow. Anyways, with that said, I'd have to think w/ committe members helping to guide the process would have to be influenced in some regard based upon the conversation of the media members present who's job it is to cover men's college basketball.

I don't have the links, but they were mentioned on the A-10 board. According to the tweets of various media members, UD was one of the "first 4 out" Saint Joe got the very last bid, Richmond was with UD in the first 4 out.

Big games ahead, they've got 2 they have to win before that, but the opportunity is clearly there to be siezed.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[UD90]

Check out @ESPNLunardi's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/stat...61741309267968

[Medford]

For those confused about the Illinois comment, the way the process works out, is they have the field all but set, awaiting the end of the B10 championship game. Illinois is by no means under consideration for an at large bid, which is why they choose them under that scenerio (could have been northwestern or a handful of other teams far removed from the field) as an example of a team that could steal a bid at the very last minute. The field is typically announced shortly after the B10 tournament. I doubt anyone is predicting that Illinois makes the B10 championship game.

[NorthwestFlyer]

A10 now with 5 teams in and nearly a monopoly on the 8/9 seed, with Lunardi's favorite St. Joe's making the cut. Richmond hanging out in the first four out, and Dayton, hanging onto their dishonorable mention in the next four out. I think we may have inched up a spot or two in that category.

Looks like yet another must win for the Flyers on Saturday to hang on. Make it happen Flyers!

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[udflyerfan]

Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer A10 now with 5 teams in and nearly a monopoly on the 8/9 seed, with Lunardi's favorite St. Joe's making the cut. Richmond hanging out in the first four out, and Dayton, hanging onto their dishonorable mention in the next four out. I think we may have inched up a spot or two in that category. Looks like yet another must win for the Flyers on Saturday to hang on. Make it happen Flyers! http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Does anyone have the numbers of Lunardi's accuracy the last several years in picking the teams for the Tourney??

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[NorthwestFlyer]

If I recall, and if you disregard auto bid conference tourney results, he usually has it within a team or two. I don't know if anyone is keeping stats, but I remember him boasting his technique and how accurate he is compared to others.

The seeding is usually plus or minus a few seeds.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by udflyerfan Does anyone have the numbers of Lunardi's accuracy the last several years in picking the teams for the Tourney??

Somebody else said it. Lunardi always makes some last minute changes that I would swear come from some inside information. I would look at the "Dance Card" projections since theirs is formula based upon previous tourney selection committees.
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[CE80]

Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer If I recall, and if you disregard auto bid conference tourney results, he usually has it within a team or two. I don't know if anyone is keeping stats, but I remember him boasting his technique and how accurate he is compared to others. The seeding is usually plus or minus a few seeds.

Everyone can pick The first 64 teams. The thing is, the final 4 teams is probably picked from no more than 8 teams. Missing a couple is not so great.
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[priceg75]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

Lunardi is in the middle of the rankings. These rankings include seed projections in addition to getting all of the field correct.

[Fudd]

Originally Posted by NorthwestFlyer A10 now with 5 teams in and nearly a monopoly on the 8/9 seed, with Lunardi's favorite St. Joe's making the cut. Richmond hanging out in the first four out, and Dayton, hanging onto their dishonorable mention in the next four out. I think we may have inched up a spot or two in that category. Looks like yet another must win for the Flyers on Saturday to hang on. Make it happen Flyers! http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

I think we have to win enough games to move us above 1 or 2 teams that are above us in the A10 standings now. I think that is likely to only give us a tolerance of losing one more game before the league tournament. I am skeptical that we are that good, but we shall see.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[FlyingArrow]

For every loss from this point, we will need to win a game in the A-10 tournament to make up for it. If we win 2 games in the tournament, that will mean we beat a top 4 team in the tournament. All of our conference's top 4 should be in the top 50. If we win 3 of the next 5 games, that means we beat 2 top 50 teams (although SJU or Richmond could drop out of the top 50). We already have 3 top 50 wins. If we get 3 more, we have 6 top 50 wins that should put us in the tournament. Even if that means we're 6-8 versus the top 50.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

[NorthwestFlyer]

Originally Posted by Fudd I think we have to win enough games to move us above 1 or 2 teams that are above us in the A10 standings now. I think that is likely to only give us a tolerance of losing one more game before the league tournament. I am skeptical that we are that good, but we shall see.

We are certainly rolling along at this point, but there are some tough hurdles coming up, they will need to maintain their poise on defense and keep that good ball rotation on offense. They need to have the grit to win those games they need to in the last possession. So far they have not shown too much of that. I think I am more skeptical than optimistic, but it certainly has gotten interesting.

I really feel that 9-7 keeps us on the bubble and we need to pull something good out of the A-10 tourney. 10-6 and we are in as long as we don't loose to a lesser team in in the A10 tourney... They are still in a deep hole.

[priceg75]

I don't know about the grit thing... that St. Bonaventure win was an impressively gritty road win that we don't usually pull out. Also, pulling off a 20-4 run to close out the half last night showed some determination.

[ruechalgrin]

We put ourselves in this bubble position, but I don't see how Joe L. is right on a couple of teams.

BYU, RPI 41, Road/Neutral 5-9, top 50 2-5, 51-100 4-1, 101+ 11-4, Beat 2 likely NCAA
UD, RPI 57, Road/Neutral 7-4, top 50 3-5, 51-100 4-0, 101+ 11-3, Beat 3 likely NCAA
G'town RPI 59, Road/Neutral 5-7, top 50 3-5, 51-100 2-3, 101+10-2, Beat 3 likely NCAA

We beat BYU in every single category except RPI; we beat G'Town in every single category except 101+ where we have 1 more bad loss. BYU and Georgetown are his last 2 in.

So will the committee reward road/neutral like they say they do.

This assumes we do not blow the last 5 games, which with Dayton is always a distinct possibility.

[priceg75]

Sometimes you have to go a bit deeper than the metrics. Within the top 50, who did you beat?

We beat a couple of teams on the fringe of the top 50 and Gonzaga.

G'town beat VCU and Michigan State both on Neutral courts... better wins than what we have.

Personally, I think G'town will play themselves out, as they have @ Marquette, v. Creighton, @ 'Nova to end the season. If they lose those 3 and win their other games, and split in the conf. tourney, they'll be 18-14 with a 60-ish RPI according to rpiforecast.com.

[JimBo]

That Baylor loss is going to loom large. Not so much because they lost, but they were so close to another quality win and a chance at Syracuse.

[longtimefan]

Originally Posted by JimBo That Baylor loss is going to loom large. Not so much because they lost, but they were so close to another quality win and a chance at Syracuse.

But Baylor is tanking and Cal is still doing pretty well. Of course, if we had beaten Syracuse - wow. The three biggest losses of the year are probably USC, Richmond, and St Joe. USC because they suck, and the other two because we are fighting it out with them for an at-large. You could throw Illinois State in there too. If we had won two of those four we'd be in good shape.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	St Joseph's ST. JOSEPH'S Founded by the Society of Jesus in 1851, Saint Joseph's University advances the professional and personal ambitions of men and women by providing a demanding, yet supportive educational experience. One of only 139 schools nationwide with a Phi Beta Kappa chapter and AACSB business school accreditation, Saint Joseph's is home to 4,200 full-time undergraduates and 3,100 graduate, part-time and doctoral candidates. Located in urban Philadelphia, SJU is a fellow member of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Hawks. Athletic claim to fame is is the Hawk mascot, a university student on full scholarship who wears a Hawk uniform and flaps his wings continuously for an entire athletic event. School spirit slogan is "The Hawk Will Never Die."

[JimBo]

Originally Posted by longtimefan But Baylor is tanking and Cal is still doing pretty well. Of course, if we had beaten Syracuse - wow. The three biggest losses of the year are probably USC, Richmond, and St Joe. USC because they suck, and the other two because we are fighting it out with them for an at-large. You could throw Illinois State in there too. If we had won two of those four we'd be in good shape.

Baylor has gone backwards some, but still has an RPI of 48, which would have been another good win on the resume. A win might have had us looking in at this point, instead of out. It was a game we had control of up until the last minute. I guess that's why it still frustrates me so much.

I can't believe that USC is that bad, only one win in the conference. How do we lose that game at home? Ugh!

[TA111]

Originally Posted by ruechalgrin We put ourselves in this bubble position, but I don't see how Joe L. is right on a couple of teams. BYU, RPI 41, Road/Neutral 5-9, top 50 2-5, 51-100 4-1, 101+ 11-4, Beat 2 likely NCAA UD, RPI 57, Road/Neutral 7-4, top 50 3-5, 51-100 4-0, 101+ 11-3, Beat 3 likely NCAA G'town RPI 59, Road/Neutral 5-7, top 50 3-5, 51-100 2-3, 101+10-2, Beat 3 likely NCAA We beat BYU in every single category except RPI; we beat G'Town in every single category except 101+ where we have 1 more bad loss. BYU and Georgetown are his last 2 in. So will the committee reward road/neutral like they say they do. This assumes we do not blow the last 5 games, which with Dayton is always a distinct possibility.

All very good points and why Dance Card has us ahead of each of those teams. If the committee uses the criteria they have used the last several years, then we are ahead of those teams.

[NorthwestFlyer]

Originally Posted by priceg75 I don't know about the grit thing... that St. Bonaventure win was an impressively gritty road win that we don't usually pull out. Also, pulling off a 20-4 run to close out the half last night showed some determination.

They have shown it inconsistently all year. Lack of Grit got us losses to St. Joe and USC at home. They are currently on the right track, no doubt about it with their recent wins.

[NorthwestFlyer]

Not much change with Bracketology. A10 with 5 teams, with us and Richmond on the close but no cigar list. UMass has climbed out of the coin toss, who gets to meet the Number 1 seed next, 8/9 bracket.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Tuesday is a huge game that either puts us in or keeps us out. Would it knock St. Joe out if we win?

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.

[Buster Goode]

Throw away the hatred of Xavier for a few seconds.

Who do we want to win the Xavier at St John's game this week? Both seem to be a shade ahead of us in the projection sites. Xavier plays Creiighton at Cintas this Sat. Hoping that's a loss.

	Xavier XAVIER MUSKETEERS Dayton's biggest rival dating back to the early 1900s. Founded in 1831, Xavier University is a Jesuit, Catholic university in Cincinnati, Ohio. Its three colleges offer 78 undergraduate majors, 43 minors and 11 graduate programs to 6,646 total students, including 3,961 undergraduates. The University is the sixth-oldest Catholic university in the nation and one of 28 Jesuit colleges and universities nationwide. Xavier's nickname is the Musketeers and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[NorthwestFlyer]

I wouldn't say hatred, I wish them no ill will, distaste is a better word. : )

That's a tough one. Loosing to X might dump St. John's who could then be killed by a loss at Marquette. X has a tough finish with Creighton and Nova, and @ Seton Hall may be tough on them. Plenty of opportunity for both to stumble or climb, but for a scenario that drops both teams off the bubble, X probably needs to win and then crap out and St. John's then fall at @Marq... Can't do it, go St. John's, beat X and Marq.

[Medford]

w/o knowing the future, its hard to say which one is better for UD to have lose.

[CE80]

Originally Posted by Medford w/o knowing the future, its hard to say which one is better for UD to have lose.

If we don't know than root for St. Johns. Wasn't the word on the street that they supported us getting into the Big East while X and others lobbied against us.

[Medford]

I don't know who is for or against UD joining the Big East, but after watching a handful of seton hall and Saint John's games on TV this season, I would think both teams would like to have the rich alumni base in that area of UD including in their conference. Lots and lots of people dressed as empty seats.

[NorthwestFlyer]

Updated today.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

5 A10 teams in. Richmond and Dayton on the dishonorable mention list, with Richmond one spot in front of us. Saturday is a huge game for us.

	Richmond UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND Founded in 1830, the private liberal arts university in the Commonwealth boasts 2,800 students in 57 majors within its picturesque 350-acre campus. The Robins School of Business is one of the Top-20 business schools in the country. Nickname is the Spiders and are fellow A10 Conference members.

[Buster Goode]

After the debacle on Tuesday, no sense of even looking at this now until we win on Saturday.

[xubrew]

Here's one where they just go down the seed list, talk a little about each team, and build the bracket as they go. Dayton ends up being the team that's next in line to get in.

I actually know a few of these guys, so I wanted to share. It's certainly different, as you'll see right away, but I think what they do is kind of fun....

http://hoopshd.com/2014/02/27/bracket-rundown-feb-27th/

[NorthwestFlyer]

Getting no love for the UMass win. I think the beat down at St. Joe made for some bad perception with some of these guys.

For what it is worth.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Dance card still has us in, but the RPI they have for us is a bit lower than we are currently, and as conference tournaments go, some of the last spots can get taken. We really are on a fine line, pulling a victory at St. Louis would be huge.

	Massachusetts MASSACHUSETTS UMass Amherst, the flagship campus of the University of Massachusetts system, sits on nearly 1,450-acres in the scenic Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts, 90 miles from Boston and 175 miles from New York City. The campus provides a rich cultural environment in a rural setting close to major urban centers. UMass enrolls over 20,000 undergraduates and 5,000 post-grad students. Fellow members of the A10 Conference. Nickname is the Minutemen. Women's teams known as the Minutewomen. Sports achievements include NCAA Final Four appearances in men's basketball and women's soccer.