Purdue Match NCAA 2nd Round

[Lifelong Flyer Fan]

5:00pm Link isn't up on our schedule page yet. Here it is:
https://www.espn.com/watch/player/_/...1-43ac6a3b0e15

[BeckysTXA]

When we played Marquette in Rd 1 2 years ago, we used a 2-setter offense with Bridget and sophomore Josie Vondran splitting duties. Josie had beaten out Brooke Westbeld halfway thru the season and had played very, very well. But this Marquette match was her worst of the season. I think the NCAA stage got the best of a young player.

Yesterday our sophomore setter played like a veteran, experienced competitor. She has work to do to get to the level Bridget was at last year, but that’s the difference between a player in her first year of starting and Bridget who had started for 3 years. Still sets that aren’t placed
as well as we need to see, but Livie has come a long way since week 1 and played well against Marquette. Probably her best match of the year.

We will need a big day from Livie again tonight. We have a great back row/passers. We have hitters who can terminate. But if the sets timing and placement is off, it doesn’t matter how good the pass was or what hitter is in the air, because they can’t use their best swing if the ball isn’t in a good spot.

Purdue placed 6 players on the All Conference teams - the most ever. I except their block to be better than Marquette’s. We simply will have to play our best this year to win this match. How well we played yesterday was a very good start. Keep it rolling. Go Flyers.

[BeckysTXA]

I’m going to add this match was probably the best I’ve seen Lexie and Layne play too. I would say both of these players probably had some sophomore moments this season and weren’t as successful at certain times as they had as true freshmen. A lot of that comes from opponents having more video on you and figuring out your tendencies. The setter levels early in the year also contributed. But yesterday both of these players were on fire and took over the match. We will need that again today.

[BeckysTXA]

Media TO. Purdue leads 14-15, but we are holding our own. I think we haven’t even gotten warmed up yet, so we have another level. Playing pretty controlled ball.

[BeckysTXA]

Flyers on their 1st little run here to take the lead 17-16. Purdue calls TO. Lexie serving. We’ve only had 1 service error this set. We do not want to go over 2. Purdue is too good. Lexie needs to put this serve in play.

[BeckysTXA]

Ace by Alli. Flyers up 20-17. Purdue has to take their last Timeout. Horsmon pulls Sandt to put in Lindsey Winner as a blocking specialist. That is by design, not anything Livie has done wrong. Close this out UD.

[BeckysTXA]

4-0 run by Purdue to take lead 20-21. UD Timeout. Need a pass and a side out. Raise your level of play and win this set.

[BeckysTXA]

22-24 Purdue. Two set points. Timeout Flyers.

[BeckysTXA]

Set point Flyers up 25-24

[BeckysTXA]

25-25

[BeckysTXA]

26-25 Flyers

[BeckysTXA]

Smash by Lex. Flyers take set 1 27-25.

[redbengal]

Wow! Great job on the clutch points to close out set #1. Keep it up, Flyers!!
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue is the 3rd best blocking team in the country. They only got one block on us that set. We put up 2 - both by Moore and Swink. Expect the Purdue block to come. We also caused 9 attack errors which our block had to contribute to by causing hitter mistakes to avoid it.

And, oh...we can play better. Crank it up ladies.

[BeckysTXA]

9-8 Flyers on Amelia service run. Most impressively Amelia has dug a couple balls. Bless her heart. Just dug another one and us up 10-8.

[BeckysTXA]

12-9 Flyers. Amelia dug a bunch of balls during that run. I don’t think she ever got it passed to the setter, but she kept balls off the floor. Maura and other players got the set off those digs and we scored. Great job by Amelia.

[redbengal]

Seems like we’ve gone back to the power game in the 2nd. Lots of dinks and getting cute with it in the 1st.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

Swink having a very good match. Up 15-11. Purdue subbing people to fix what ails them.

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue challenging an “in” call. UD up 17-12 if it stands as a JPete kill.

[redbengal]

It’s a block party as expected. But it’s a FLYER block party! Crucial one right there to put us up 19-13.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

19-13 Flyers. Timeout Purdue. Close this out ladies.

[BeckysTXA]

24-17 Dayton. One more.

[BeckysTXA]

24-19. Timeout UD. Good TO. Get it done.

[BeckysTXA]

Flyers go up 2-0, taking the 2nd set 25-19. Swink having a career match getting in on blocks and swinging well.

[Chris R]

THIS IS AS CLOSE AS WE'VE EVER BEEN. This is not set 5. This is 2-0. FINISH IT! Purdue is gonna respond. Home crowd, good team. Weather that storm.

[BeckysTXA]

We have 5 service errors - 2 in set 1 and 3 this set. We can live with that and we can win with that. Stay focused and expect Purdue to bring everything they have this third set. We have been here before and lost in 5. Do not let them back into this thing.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by Chris R THIS IS AS CLOSE AS WE'VE EVER BEEN. This is not set 5. This is 2-0. FINISH IT! Purdue is gonna respond. Home crowd, good team. Weather that storm.

This too.

[redbengal]

Total domination by the Flyers in set #2. Some unbelievable digs. Uncanny ability to miss the Boiler blockers. Some nice respect from the announcers, calling the Flyers “stellar” and saying they “have all the answers.” But my favorite was when they said someone forgot to tell Dayton they were supposed to lose.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

I love the team came out in the floor to greet the Court players after 25th point. Flyer Family.

[BeckysTXA]

Regroup ladies. 2-7 Purdue. Timeout Dayton. We’re we’re down 5 in set 1....just re-group and bring it.

[Chris R]

Purdue is going to hit another gear. Thats what Top-10 teams do when their backs are against the wall. We must respond and elevate accordingly. The hardest work has yet to be done.

[BeckysTXA]

10-16 Purdue. We need a run now.

[BeckysTXA]

Lia Hawkins in. I think this is an experience move by Tim. Get a player who will be big next year some experience at this level. Purdue is going to win this set. So good move.

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue takes the 3rd. Word of the minute....RESPOND. Jump on them early and don’t let up. Win this in 4. Purdue is like 14-2 at home this season. Don’t let them take control because the crowd will make themselves known. We have been here before. Ride that experience..And change history.

[redbengal]

Getting Lia in there also helps keep legs fresh overall, no? Time to put set #3 in the past and do what they came to West Lafayette to do.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

Slow start for the Flyers. We’ve got to calm down. Focus. And respond. Need a run.

[Class of 73 Alum]

Score?

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue up 4-11. UD takes their last TO. We need leadership from the floor now. Livie’s had a couple bad sets. JPete-Maura-Swink need to get her refocused. We need a side out and a run ladies.

[Chris R]

13-4 Purdue in the 4th. The cream is rising. Hitting percentages have complete flipped since first set cpl sets.

[BeckysTXA]

7 attack errors = half of Purdue’s points. Purdue block is showing up. 4-14 Purdue.

[BeckysTXA]

5-17 Purdue. They get to 20 and Horsmon needs to pull his team to get them mentally ready for the 5th. Horsmon has sent in Miller to set. It doesn’t matter what’s happened these two sets. It’s going to come down to 15 points in the 5th.

[redbengal]

#7 for Purdue is blocking everything. Are we tired? We may not hit 7 points this set. Regroup in set #5 and leave nothing on the floor.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue dominates the 4th. We have to forget everything that just happened. In 5th sets you play first to 5...first to 10...first to 15. Everything is critical and important. You can not give points away. We’ve been here before. Lean on that experience. Change history.

[maddog07]

Looks like we were playing not to lose. We were far more aggressive in the first two sets.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

1-5 Purdue. Timeout UD. We are playing too tight and making errors. To have to go for it and leave it on the court.

[redbengal]

Starting the 5th by giving away a point with a SE. Fitting in a way. We are hitting right into the block now. Would like to see some short sets like earlier in the match.
Posted via Mobile Device

[BeckysTXA]

3-9 Purdue. Last UD timeout. This is almost impossible to come back from. If we can get a 4 point run or better....we are back in it. But I don’t see it from the Flyers right now.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by redbengal Starting the 5th by giving away a point with a SE. Fitting in a way. We are hitting right into the block now. Would like to see some short sets like earlier in the match. Posted via Mobile Device

Not using our middles.

[BeckysTXA]

Purdue advances.

[redbengal]

I feel bad for the kids. They had a Sweet 16 within reach. Even in the final 3 sets Purdue didn’t strike me as the #6 team in the nation. If that’s what #6 looks like then we are good enough to host a R1/R2 pod.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Chris R]

Just got smoked last three sets. Hot knife through butter. But, if you are Purdue that's what you'd expect vs an unranked team on your home court. They swept Wisconsin.

When you are Top-10, you have another gear that we do not have that you can call on to turn things around and rise up. Jimmys and Joes, Janes and Jens.

Great season for UD however. A lot accomplished. I think we got about as far as our talent realistically allowed. Will miss the seniors and especially JPete -- I was hoping we could get her a Sweet-16.

[NJFlyr71]

After UD won set 2 I really really thought we had a chance with the thought we only needed 1 out of the next 3. But alas not meant to be.

When Chris talks about the women soccer program, with UD playing a team or two in conference and in an NCAA T match, we do not possess the physicality and needed skills in selected position on the field I can understand what that may mean for our athletes.

So Becky, when Chris talked about the next gear in the top teams engine, which after being in this position (second round) multiple times with similar results (not being able to climb that mountain into the next weekend) we seem to lack that 'gear' on every occasion.

So what exactly is UD missing? We have been getting good reputable players as recruits (some top 100) and the last few years finding players of height (6'-2" or better). I understand that those two factors do not 'make' a team great all by itself. SO what does the WVB team need?

An inquiring mind would like to know!

[Glen Clark]

A big thanks to the Seniors for coming to UD and elevating our program through hard work and exemplary behavior - best of luck in your future endeavours!

_____________________
Whether your glass is half full or half empty, you still have more to drink

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 After UD won set 2 I really really thought we had a chance with the thought we only needed 1 out of the next 3. But alas not meant to be. When Chris talks about the women soccer program, with UD playing a team or two in conference and in an NCAA T match, we do not possess the physicality and needed skills in selected position on the field I can understand what that may mean for our athletes. So Becky, when Chris talked about the next gear in the top teams engine, which after being in this position (second round) multiple times with similar results (not being able to climb that mountain into the next weekend) we seem to lack that 'gear' on every occasion. So what exactly is UD missing? We have been getting good reputable players as recruits (some top 100) and the last few years finding players of height (6'-2" or better). I understand that those two factors do not 'make' a team great all by itself. SO what does the WVB team need? An inquiring mind would like to know!

We have certainly seen elite teams take it to another gear in plenty of matches many in 5-set battles. About 3 years ago I did a deep dive and a couple articles into emerging parity in the sport for DI programs. There was evidence it was coming. More girls/youth and prep were playing volleyball over basketball creating a larger pool of talent and thus it would spread out to schools like UD and raise our program. There was evidence of more non-P5 programs making Sweet 16s and Elite 8 levels. There were a lot of young coaches -especially female - who had played the game under great coaches and that knowledge was filtering into more programs as these players took head coaching jobs.

But the last 3 years, instead of the gap growing more narrow, it appears to be widening again. After tonight we will be able to see who makes the 2nd weekend. Other than BYU, there hasn’t been much consistence of non-P5 programs consistently breaking through. I do believe talent levels are rising, but they are rising everywhere, not just more talent being spread out to more schools to level the playing field. 10 years ago you never saw OHs hitting .300 in matches. Now there are OHs who average .300 for the season and 20+ Middle Blockers this season are averaging .400+ Hitting Percentages.

So as much as I want more parity...my opinion is changing. I think the gap has widened again. Where does that leave UD’s program? How do we win some of these 5 set, oh so close matches against Top 15 teams and get to the Sweet 16?

1. My niece played for UD from 2007-2010. She was a part of the team that came within 2 points of a Sweet 16 in a 5 Set loss to tOSU. That was UD’s best team ever. It was ranked all season and finished ranked #15. She was a hitter. When she was in high school deciding where to go, back when I didn’t know a lot about volleyball, I remember thinking if I was a hitter, I’d want to go to the school that had the best setter. It was an opinion based on logic, not real understanding of the game. But having witnessed this years team play to be honest...bad... as our 3 setters struggled and Livie eventually won the job....versus how good Bridget was at the end of last year...I think for a program like Dayton’s, the importance of finding a very-very good setter is critical. More so than ever before because the talent at the elite programs has risen even higher.

2. I’ve seen the sport increase in speed in the last 10 years. That creates a big need to have middle blockers that can move left to right quickly. At the same time everyone is getting taller. So you can’t just be tall. You have to also be quick so you can close blocks. Are you going to be able to close every block? No. It’s a percentage game. Our block improved a lot this season. It needs to take another big step next year. That 2010 team was in the top 5 blocking teams in the country - I think they finished 3rd. We have to excel at blocking to knock off an elite program, because everyone has amazing hitters...including UD.

3. Finally, I think more important than taking it to another gear (which is important) is our ability to play consistently at a high level. We played really well for one weekend back in October. Then we took some steps back again and weren’t playing well...but good enough to sweep the A10. And the A10 competition is an issue here too. Then we played at a very high level for 5 sets in the NCAAs...but we needed 6 sets...and we didn’t have it. And yes...Purdue punched us in the face and raised their play. We didn’t have an answer. We’ve scheduled some mid-season Tuesday matches with regional foes in most years. Wright State. Xavier. Cincinnati. I think it’s important to schedule tougher matches in those 2 slots every year. We probably will have to travel a little further, like WKY, Marquette or Creighton. But I think we need it to raise our play and learn to play consistently at a higher level for weeks on end. We need tougher matches during October and the conference foes aren’t giving us enough. You have to be challenged to play at a high level every week possible.

4. We have to better understand the dynamics of where the sport has evolved. First...the win over Marquette WAS AN UPSET. Pablo gave Marquette a 65% chance of winning the match. Don’t over look that, especially since it was our best played match of the year. It would not have surprised me if we had lost. But we couldn’t pull off the upset two nights in a row. There is a reason it’s called an upset...it doesn’t happen very often. Like Chris said...the cream rises almost all of the time. And with all the tools available to players and coaches these days it’s even harder to pull off an upset. Everyone has the software program and can look at any match or player from any team at any time. Their tendencies serving, hitting, defending and on and on are at your finger tips instantly. Nobody inside the sport looks at box scores much anymore. It’s way beyond that now. I do not know to what level UD breaks all this down in preparing for matches and in evaluating our own players. But there might be an opportunity here to help the program. We own the knowledge base to build schedules to give our programs the best shot at getting into NCAAs. We are trailblazers in this area. Maybe there is more tech savvy we can deploy.

5. Finally, I’m not too worried about replacing our leaving players. JPete and Maura could have played for any P-5 program. They are that good. But we have others at those two spots who are or will be very, very good already on the team or coming this fall. I also noticed with the size coming in (6’3”+ players - 3 of them) they are all slender. And I can say that because I’m female. It’s also a fact. That doesn’t mean they are quick, but it means they might be tall, athletic and quick. And our setters are all leap years ahead of where they started in August this year. I expect us to be better next year, but can we be more consistent? That’s the question.

[BeckysTXA]

So I checked the bracket and these are the only non-P5 teams left with a chance at the Sweet 16:

UCF vs. #13 UCLA
Hawaii vs #15 WA
#11 BYU vs Utah

[BeckysTXA]

BYU...again...is the only non-P5 program to get to the Sweet 16. It’s also interesting to look at the set scores in the 2nd round.

9 matches were won 3-0. The gap is large.
5 matches were won 3-1. The teams that lost those matches were TN, KY, Penn St, Utah &Creighton.
2 matches went 5 set. UCF pushed #13 UCLA to 5. And Dayton pushed #6 Purdue to 5.

Of the teams that lost in the 2nd round... Penn St took 1 set off #3 Pitt. Dayton took 2 sets off #6 Purdue. Everyone else had “easier matches” against lower ranked teams.

There were 2 upsets of seeded teams in the 2nd round. ILL knocked #7 KY out. Kansas knocked #14 Creighton out.

BYU still remains the non-P5 program that consistently gets into the 2nd weekend. Creighton and WKY in recent years have also found some limited success. I would definitely study everything BYU is doing. Players, systems, blocking style, serving, offense....everything. We have the software system that gives us access to all of that. They have a blueprint that works. Learn from it. And I realize BYU is much larger than UD, but it’s the program closest to us in terms of where we want our program to go. I’d also do the same with Creighton and WKY - and get both of those teams plus Marquette on the schedule. No. Iowa and Wichita St also use to be in that category, but both of those programs have taken a step backwards. We don’t want to trend that same way. Do a deep dive into what BYU, Creighton and WKY are doing.

[NJFlyr71]

Originally Posted by BeckysTXA We have certainly seen elite teams take it to another gear in plenty of matches many in 5-set battles. About 3 years ago I did a deep dive and a couple articles into emerging parity in the sport for DI programs. There was evidence it was coming. More girls/youth and prep were playing volleyball over basketball creating a larger pool of talent and thus it would spread out to schools like UD and raise our program. There was evidence of more non-P5 programs making Sweet 16s and Elite 8 levels. There were a lot of young coaches -especially female - who had played the game under great coaches and that knowledge was filtering into more programs as these players took head coaching jobs. But the last 3 years, instead of the gap growing more narrow, it appears to be widening again. After tonight we will be able to see who makes the 2nd weekend. Other than BYU, there hasn’t been much consistence of non-P5 programs consistently breaking through. I do believe talent levels are rising, but they are rising everywhere, not just more talent being spread out to more schools to level the playing field. 10 years ago you never saw OHs hitting .300 in matches. Now there are OHs who average .300 for the season and 20+ Middle Blockers this season are averaging .400+ Hitting Percentages. So as much as I want more parity...my opinion is changing. I think the gap has widened again. Where does that leave UD’s program? How do we win some of these 5 set, oh so close matches against Top 15 teams and get to the Sweet 16? ... 5. Finally, I’m not too worried about replacing our leaving players. JPete and Maura could have played for any P-5 program. They are that good. But we have others at those two spots who are or will be very, very good already on the team or coming this fall. I also noticed with the size coming in (6’3”+ players - 3 of them) they are all slender. And I can say that because I’m female. It’s also a fact. That doesn’t mean they are quick, but it means they might be tall, athletic and quick. And our setters are all leap years ahead of where they started in August this year. I expect us to be better next year, but can we be more consistent? That’s the question.

Thanks for the in-depth answer to my query.

As is always the case you present an un-varnished, straight to the point, knowledge based analysis with foresight and data to back up your perspective on the sport of volleyball.

We here inside UDPride are lucky to have you as our play-by-play commentator and post game analyzer.

Go Becky!

Although I was disappointed in the last match outcome I always look forward to VB season. The team grew all season long into a very successful representative of UD athletics. Once again giving all of us something to be proWd of.

Go Flyers!

[BeckysTXA]

Thank you for your kind words.

[Medford]

Blame me for the loss; I never follow Volleyball with the exception of when it happens to be on in the Olympics. If not for Becky's fine work, I wouldn't have even been aware that UD was on. So when do I remember to turn it on? Just after the start of the 3rd set, I put the curse on those girls.


Despite knowing little to nothing about the sport (and having kids keep asking me questions that I couldn't answer) it was fun to watch them play.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by Medford Blame me for the loss; I never follow Volleyball with the exception of when it happens to be on in the Olympics. If not for Becky's fine work, I wouldn't have even been aware that UD was on. So when do I remember to turn it on? Just after the start of the 3rd set, I put the curse on those girls. Despite knowing little to nothing about the sport (and having kids keep asking me questions that I couldn't answer) it was fun to watch them play.

Honorable of you to fess-up. We will be monitoring you going forward. At a minimum you will have to have supervised viewing and be asked to turn it off if it becomes a problem.

[BeckysTXA]

Instead of starting a new NCAA Update thread...I figured we could just use this one to continue the parity discussion.

Purdue beats BYU - so no non-P5 teams in the Elite 8.

To further illustrate the hypothesis that the parity gap is widening and I’m leaning towards concluding its real....

3 Sweet 16 matches were 3-2 victories. Purdue over BYU, MN over Baylor and TX over WA.
5 were 3-0 sweeps. All Top 16 seeded teams over Top 16 seeded teams except KS, the lone non-seeded team.

Louisville over FL
Pitt over KS
GA Tech over tOSU
WI over UCLA
NE over ILL

Not exactly “ encouraging” news. But here are some bright spots.
1. 2 teams and 3 of our matches this year were against Elite 8 teams - WI and Purdue.
2. In the last 3 years we have played 7 of the Sweet 16 teams and taken some to 5 sets. We beat tOSU. (Louisville, FL, Pitt, tOSU, WI, Purdue, WA.) we have Louisville on next years schedule per TH in the pre-Season interview. We could probably get any of these teams on next years schedule.
3. We’ve also played NE, ILL, MN and Baylor in the last 11-12 years. We could probably get ILL back on our schedule next year and maybe Baylor.

As much as we hate the 5 set losses to top teams, you have to keep after it. Purdue is capable of beating Pitt today to reach the Final Four. If that happens, it would be 2 years in a row we got knocked out in 5 sets against a Final Four team. But either way...against a Top 8 team.

As much as I’d like to figure out the perfect balance of scheduling that gets us a very high RPI and a chance to be a hosting site for the first 2 rounds...and we should always look at that. But I’m not sure it really matters. Because of where we are located, the Committee always sends a P-5 team in and usually from the Big10. We would still have to travel the 2nd weekend because they no longer take hosting bids for either weekend. It goes to the top seeds and everyone now hosts.

I think the focus should be on tough scheduling but a two tier approach...and understand it’s an educated guess what teams will fall into these tiers next year. So you are going to have a couple misses. But 2-3 teams that should be Top 15 and 2-3 more teams that should be Top16-30ish. There are 4 pre-conference weekend “tournaments” with 4 teams. So if we can accomplish the above, it could be about 4-6 of the 12 pre-conference opponents.

KY and WI twice were Top 15 teams. MI was Top 30 and CINCY was Top 50. We weren't suppose to play WI twice, but they couldn’t get two other teams under contract so Horsmon took big bucks to play them twice. It was a good decision, and I doubt it will ever come up again. It was the 16-30ish slot we needed more opponents. And I believe we also need them in the two October Tuesday slots we usually schedule even if we land them pre-conference.

We do scheduling better than almost everyone. We have to. So learn from the last 2-3 years and work to apply it. But you certainly don’t control everything. What I do think you can take off the table is trying to host the first weekend. If it happens...great. But build the mentality within the program that we will go anywhere to play anyone and we will be coming to pull off an upset. With the changes to how hosting is dished out for the tournament, are chances are just very slim because the conference is weak and pulls our RPI down. And maybe those running the program have already figured this out. I would absolutely switch the mental preparedness to us against the elite programs on their own courts and we are coming with our best shot.

[Chris R]

Key is getting seeded. Play the metrics and get WKU on the sked every year.

[UD62]

Boilers fall to Pitt

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by Chris R Key is getting seeded. Play the metrics and get WKU on the sked every year.

We absolutely should do everything schedule wise to give us the best RPI we can every year to get a seed. But the ability to thread that needle is very, very hard in our conference. Using figstats, this year WKY is sitting at an RPI of 19. They went 27-1 and did not get a seed. They also lost in the 2nd round like us. Last year, the covid year with very few OOC matches, WKY went 21-0 and did not get seeded. But that undefeated record got them matched up against #15 seed WA St and they knocked them off 3-2 to make the Sweet 16.

Last year UD went 13-1. We messed up losing to SLU in 5 in the first match of the year. Because of that we lost in 5 to #6 seed WA. Strong probability we were better than WKY last year. Flip us in the NCAA pods and I strongly believe we make the Sweet 16. But they EARNED that placement. We had a loss. They didn’t. And neither team was seeded.

The ability to get a seed out of our conference is almost impossible. We did it in 2010 - the year we were ranked all season. Have we ever been seeded any other year? We’ve hosted back when you put in bids. But have we ever been seeded in the Top 16 except in 2010? I don’t remember being a top 16 before, but maybe one other year.

And that’s my point. The probability is so low coming out of the A10...maybe we have to change gears and rethink the emphasis. Absolutely do everything you can to give it your best shot, but prepare mentally that you’re going to have to go on the road and knock someone off on their home court to get to the Sweet 16.

[BeckysTXA]

This year, C-USA average RPI was 147. A10 averaged an RPI of 218. Neither team was a seed. How can you make up that 71 point RPI difference? And even if you can, it’s still not good enough to get a seed. And even if you get a seed and host, they will still send a very good Big10 team in to your pod, like they did in 2010. I think you have to take a hard look if it’s too hard to build that mouse trap out of the A10. And if the answer is maybe it is such low probability....what else can we do to break thru?

[BeckysTXA]

So I dug up some historical info since 2000. We were seeded #15 in 2007 and #14 in 2010. 2 seeds in 22 years - 9% historic probability we can build a schedule and perform at a near perfect level to get a seed (Top 16) to host.

Note: about 4-5 years ago they changed who got to host from a bid process, and some top programs didn’t put in a bid. For example In 2003 we went to East Lansing the first 2 rounds, but the seeded team at that sight was #5 Nebraska. So now you have to be a Top 16 seeded team to host the first weekend. I don’t think any team has declined hosting since that change was made...maybe one?

Obviously the #1 goal of scheduling is to build it every year for an at-large bid in case you don’t win the conference tournament for some reason. Everything after that I think you have to look out to build a better mouse trap and acknowledge getting a seed out of the A10 is almost impossible today and examine what else you can do to within the program to get to the Sweet 16. and maybe the university has already figured that out and are working towards other things.

I have more data I will post in about a week. Can’t do it this week. Thanks.

[udisit19]

I am very familiar with the 2007 version of the Flyers. They built that #14 RPI without any top 10 wins. Other than X and SLU the conference had no team in the top 150. Temple was 4th at 160.

The 2007 Flyers beat in order of RPI: Utah (19), Purdue (20), Xavier x2 (34), Western Kentucky (36), Saint Louis x2 (43), Illinois (59), Bowling Green (70), Cincinnati (78), North Carolina (106).

This team was good, but they barely beat Illinois at home. Illinois was the better team. The Flyers surprised ILL in set 1. Got crushed in sets 2 and 3. Almost lost in set 4 until Ill miscommunication on two service aces. They barely beat Utah and UNC at Purdue. I’m not positive, but I believe Purdue had an injury when we upset them.(It’s not easy, but information from 2007 show in their opening match Purdue started SO Sam Gray at setter and she did not play at all in the match against UD. Still an enormous win for the Flyers, but Dayton biggest victory of 07 was against Purdue without their starting setter.) Dayton barely beat SLU at home too. This team won some important matches by narrow margins. They were in the right places at the right times. The 2007 team was something special. A team doesn’t win so many close matches without having strong leadership, talent, the right attitude, etc.

What I’m trying to say is, Dayton doesn’t need the conference to be perfect. A few teams in the top 100 is enough if the non-con schedule is strong. You can make the argument the 2007 non-con schedule wasn’t even that strong. In one of those 4 weekends the best team was Jacksonville (186). Heck, Utah wasn’t even in the PAC-10 when Dayton beat them. Dayton had a Mountain West win over Utah. And a Sun Belt win over WKU. Dayton only had 4 non-con matches at home.

If you try to earn a seed with the 2007 strategy, you avoid the best of the best. Try your luck at knocking off teams in the 15-25 range. Then also schedule a bunch of teams in the 25-75 range. Make sure you get one of those good teams at home (Illinois). And get some other big matches on neutral courts(Utah at Purdue and WKU at Towson). The matches don’t need to be against the best conferences, case in point, wins against Utah and WKU. And remember, Dayton really didn’t have a “Legacy” at this point. This wasn’t the committee giving a seed to a team that makes the tournament almost all the time. If Dayton did the same thing today, I think it would be more likely Dayton earns a seed.
Posted via Mobile Device

[udisit19]

I’m not positive, but I do believe the 2021 VCU roster was fairly young. I think it’s possible VCU rebounds in 2022. I also see Loyola Chicago as a good addition that will immediately compete for the A-10 title. Having two strong teams in conference definitely takes the pressure off during those 1st four weeks.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Chris R]

I just think UDs best chance to get to the Sweet-16 involves getting a seed. It wont help us much in Round 1 but in Round 2 it helps us avoid the Purdues and Washingtons of the world and affords us that chance at home.

The second best option is someone taking out a seed in our mini bracket, but that's a rare occurrence.

The third option is just keep doing what we're doing but figure out how to win that 2nd round game against a much more respected side. Yep we've gone to 5 sets twice in a row, but close only counts in horseshoes and grenades.

To get seeded again we'll need up the talent some more. We're not seed material as it currently sits. Western Ky lost one match all season and didnt even get seeded. Its a hard goal to accomplish so I get that. We need to continue to schedule like we do but start winning those Michigan type matches. Not sure we're ever going to beat the Wisconsins and Kentuckys.

I remember a few years ago Saint Louis beat #3(?) Stanford at home. I still cannot believe that.

[udisit19]

Check out these stats from Dayton vs. Purdue in 2007. First to 30 win by 2. https://purdue_ftp.sidearmsports.com...083107aaa.html

The 2007 Flyers didn't out hit, out block, or out dig the Boilermakers. Looking at just the stats, It's kinda amazing Dayton won. and won in 3. About the only thing the Flyers did better was out serve.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by udisit19 Check out these stats from Dayton vs. Purdue in 2007. First to 30 win by 2. https://purdue_ftp.sidearmsports.com...083107aaa.html The 2007 Flyers didn't out hit, out block, or out dig the Boilermakers. Looking at just the stats, It's kinda amazing Dayton won. and won in 3. About the only thing the Flyers did better was out serve.

That’s volleyball. The 2010 team had a similar stat anomaly against tOSU. It was in 5....so I agree the 2007 teams effort in 3 sets is even more amazing.


The 2006 freshman class was on both those teams. It was a ranked class and Chris R tabbed them the Flyer Five. Von Martin, Rachael Broerman, Tiff Gaerke, Becky Novacek and Kacie Hausfeld. But they benefitted in 2010 from adding Lindsey Fletemier who redshirted in 2006, And transfers Amanda Cowdrey and Jessica Yanz.

The 2007 had great leadership. I think Lexie and Lia show some of that leadership style.

[BeckysTXA]

Wisconsin wins it all with 3 coaches that moved from Dayton to WI. Blocking was the difference. When Horsmon returned, I had posted a comparison with Sheff and noted Sheff was a better blocking coach. Horsmon is/was a better recruiter for UD. At the time Brit Dildine was in her first assistant coaching job and our recruiting coordinator. She’s gotten really good at recruiting in her 13 years as an assistant coach. It also helps WI is in the best volleyball conference. Use to be the PAC. Then for awhile both the PAC and BIG10 at the top. But now the BIG sits at the top alone. I expect Brit to get offered and accept a head coach job sooner rather than later. She’s earned it. That’s assuming there isn’t a significant other tied to Madison in the equation.

Penn State coach is rumored to be retiring. Dildine will be a candidate and so will Alyssa D’Errico. I so hope Alyssa doesn’t leave yet. She is so important to our program.

[Chris R]

My only takeaway from watching the final: my god the talent. It's almost a different sport at that level. The technical ability and lack of repetitive unforced errors combined with huge size and power. No weaknesses to pick on.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by Chris R My only takeaway from watching the final: my god the talent. It's almost a different sport at that level. The technical ability and lack of repetitive unforced errors combined with huge size and power. No weaknesses to pick on.

I assume you watched on TV vs. heading over to Columbus. It’s even more impressive seeing the talent in person. On TV, basically everyone is tall, so no one appears tall. (WI’s 6’8 and 6’9” might be the exception). But in person the size of everyone is so shocking. The TV added 10 pounds. In person how fit every athlete is...is impressive. And the power in person is even more to be honest...shocking.

[Chris R]

Yep they were hitting and terminating with harder and more fierce swings behind the 10ft line than we see from ourselves or A10 counterparts at the net. That doesn't account for the 6-8 trees hitting winners with the ball nearly vertical.

I rarely saw muffed receives into press row, oversets for dunks, low sets, sets too far from the net, hitting errors 5ft wide or long, net violations, etcetera. The play is so clean...you do not get free points.

[BeckysTXA]

The reason hitters can unload is because the set is perfect. I know we have a very good strength program. I believe we have hitters that can unload. But the connection between setter and hitters has to improve or you are not going to take advantage of your hitter talents. Right now we’ve got plenty of talent to win the A10 without improving this part of the game. Getting to the 2nd weekend...probably not. We did have that with Bridget in Spring 2020. It taught me that a program like Dayton has got to have a very good setter because we will only have one, maybe two Top 50 hitters any year. But with a really good setter, our Top 250 hitters will be able to maximize their talents.

Nebraska set some low balls and the hitter got stuffed. The announcers commented on those. But the setters on both teams didn’t have to move far the vast majority of the time. Passing was very, very good. No setters running down balls too often.

What we don’t have is that MB that can crush it inside the 10’ line. Both of these teams had a couple. I saw one ball hit be Rettke that hit the floor about 3’ off the net. She had to be hitting straight down and her hand had to be on top of the ball when she made contact. Fletemier was probably the last MB we had that could do that consistently. I think Layne will be able to add this to her game.

The other thing I saw a lot of was slides. Both teams had 3-4 players running right side slides. Again, the sets were perfect. The blocks had no chance on those plays. And Nebraska’s Lauren Sivert’s was one of the best slide attackers I’ve ever seen. She could hang in the air, waiting for the ball and waiting for the block to head down from its peak before she made contact with the ball and crushed it. The camera angle was across the court on the far side, but I swear a couple times it looked like she hung in the air and then she did this little kick in the air and just lifted herself even higher at impact. It was amazing.

Both these teams were better servers than we are.

[jpk4ud]

Something has to change to get into the second weekend. Recruiting is good but taking that talent and making it better is the key....not sure why the program is falling short there.

[BeckysTXA]

Originally Posted by jpk4ud Something has to change to get into the second weekend. Recruiting is good but taking that talent and making it better is the key....not sure why the program is falling short there.

I can appreciate the frustration. We all feel it probably most felt by the team and staff. But it isn’t easy.

I posted about parity after the season ended. 3-5 years ago I thought parity was starting to hit the sport as more youth and high school girls were playing volleyball over basketball. That talent would spread out to programs like Dayton, closing the talent gap. But today I’m in the boat the gap is getting wider. Yes Dayton is getting recruits that are more talented, but players at the top of the talent pile every year have raised that bar too. That was my miscalculation. If the top talent stayed at the level from 5 years ago, the parity gap would have gotten much smaller. That didn’t happen. And as Chris noted above, it’s visually clear how large a gap that is just by watching the championship match.

Additionally, I will go to bat for the staff on development. We were shockingly “bad” to start this year considering we only graduated one player. However, in my opinion I think we finished the year in the top 25-30 range. The staff probably did more this past year to improve a team than ever before from start to finish. And it’s taken 5 sets the last two years to deny us a Sweet 16. Only one other year have we played 5 sets in the 2nd round.(2010). That is progress. It also has shined a light on how a program at Dayton needs a very, very good setter. We also need to study what teams like BYU, WKY, Creighton are doing.

Finally, Chris has written about this before. The teams that can kick it into another gear using their talent to pull out sets, win more often. We’ve been in plenty of those matches. The last 2 2nd round matches against WA and Purdue. Florida a couple years ago. Those were losses. In the A10 we’ve had the same, only we’ve won those matches. Talent rising to the top to pull out sets. It also happened in the championship match this year. NE won the first set. They were leading by 4-5 points at the end of the 2nd set. Wisconsin’s talent kicked it into another gear to battle at the end. It took a ton of extra points, but they pulled that set out to tie the match 1-1.

Wisconsin also has Gary White as an assistant coach. Gary was a volunteer coach here at Dayton. He has a computer science degree. I believe Wisconsin is breaking down matches to a degree no one else is employing. With every match out in a stats-based software program now available to every program, anything can be broken down. These are things like every players trends. What they like to do or tend to do in every possible situation. Dana Rettke commented on this after the match. Said Sheff understood the game at a very high technical and statistical level. That’s Gary White’s work and contribution to the program. UD are masters at the scheduling matrix. I feel there are additional technology-based opportunities to help our volleyball program win more matches.