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2019 UD Women's Soccer Preview
2019 UD Women's Soccer Preview
Christopher Rieman
Published by Chris R
08-19-2019
Smile 2019 UD Women's Soccer Preview

The Dayton Flyers women’s soccer team enters the third season of the Eric Golz era with a chance to ride out the valley of the prior two years and start the climb upward. Finishing 9-9-2 (4-4-2) and 8-9-2 (4-5-1), UD squeaked out a pair of #8 seeds (the last seeds) in the A10 Tournaments to keep their streak of 22 consecutive conference tourney bids going. The level of play during this two-year period was spotty and Coach Golz spent most of his time trying to hide deficiencies at most positions on the field. Players were often overmatched and struggled to play at the A10 level on a day-to-day basis.

Few fixes were available until roster spots cycled out to bring in players he targeted and recruited early on. That’s usually a two-year process and 2019 is the first real opportunity to assess those efforts.

DEPARTURES

Taking a step forward got more challenging in the offseason as senior Nadia Pestell graduated as the team’s best one-on-one boundary defender and most dangerous attacking player in the offensive half of the field. That’s a rare combination for any player (let alone a defender) and was a complement to Pestell’s talents, but it also underscored UD’s inept dynamic playmaking ability in too many other parts of the field. When the left fullback is your most lethal dribble-drive attacking player 80yds from goal, it’s a smoke-and-mirrors offense. Occasionally it will work but most of the time it won’t. Yet, Golz had few better alternatives.

GK Kaelyn Johns will also be missed. A rock between the nets for four seasons, Johns was tough as nails and saved Dayton’s defensive bacon on many occasions. While Johns occasionally muffed the easy ball, she usually made the toughest saves when it mattered most. Like Pestell, she also had NCAA Tournament experience.

Pestell and Johns were the two major departures. Other losses to graduation include D Beth Kamphaus, D/FM Dani Ruffalo, MF Keagin Collie, and forwards Quincy Kellett and Sarah Robertson. A couple other players that seldom played also departed. The bad news is UD lost several starters in the offseason. The good news is no one other than Pestell earned 2018 A10 All-Conference (a 2nd Team Selection).

RETURNEES

The Flyers return several players with considerable experience at all parts of the field, but most have struggled with production or consistency over their careers. All of them must take a healthy step forward or their jobs might be in jeopardy. Whatever patience Golz had in his first two seasons may no longer be as generous this year because the transition period is over. It’s time to produce or sit.

Leading the way on offense are seniors Micayla Livingston and Caroline Mink. Livingston led the team in scoring last season (5g, 2a) while Mink played fewer minutes and scored one goal on six shots. Both players should be All-Conference performers by now. Fans watched Livingston and Mink torch St. Joseph’s (PA) in the A10 Tourney title game as freshmen and predicted big things from both players, but for whatever reason it hasn’t happened. Both must turn themselves into 90-minute players and take fewer days off and plays off. On a team that scored just 18 goals in 19 matches last year, the production must be far better as 4th-year players.

Sophomore F Izzy Greene (2018 A10 All Rookie selection) and senior D Jordan Pauley scored twice last season, but nobody else registered more than one goal on the year. Suffice to say that anyone demonstrating an aptitude for scoring will enjoy all the playing time they can handle, while others simply in it for the cardio will find themselves picking splinters.

Other returnees hoping to step it up on offense include Sophomore MF Hannah Osland (1g) and junior MF Morgan Henderson (1g, 1a). They are UD’s best bets in the central third, but juniors Madeleine Morrissey, Emma Thomas, Olivia Brown, and sophomores Magalie Depot and Lexy Kidd could also be in the mix. Of this group, only Kidd saw ample playing time a year ago. The Flyers were woeful between the goal boxes last season, lacking sustained ball-winning ability, distribution, and scoring. The Flyers need more midfield punch and fewer lawn ornaments.

Look for sophomore Tiana Bucknor to step in where Beth Kamphaus departed as UD’s central defender. Bucknor came a long way in just one season and while she might not be an all-star, has some qualities that make her potentially reliable: a big foot on set pieces and free kicks, decent size and physicality, and a willingness to learn. Her next big step is eliminating the small mental mistakes that led to dispossession and soft goals in the defensive third. If Bucknor plays clean this year and takes charge as the back-line maestro, Golz can concentrate on other things.

Speaking of covering ground, senior defender Jordan Pauley leads the “most improved player” vote since arriving at Dayton. Like Bucknor, she’s unlikely to find her name on the A10 postseason individual awards, but she has the tools to hold her mark on most nights. Her foot skills have gotten better and she’s developed an ability to work in tighter spaces without requiring a rescue from her teammates.

Sophomore D Grace Rickett played 987 minutes in 2018 and started 11 matches in 12 overall appearances. Junior D Kara Camarco played 626 minutes a year ago and started five matches. Hannah Merritt did not play last year but is another defensive name to consider. Other players that struggled for playing time may also get their chance.

With Johns’ graduation, UD needs a new goalkeeper. Freshman Mimi Stines transferred to NKU after one redshirt season. Senior Emily Jones has trained with the Flyers for three seasons but has just 100 minutes of game experience. Redshirt sophomore Carly Becker is 6’0” and commands attention inside the box; the Portland transfer might be the odds-on favorite to take over the job.

NEWCOMERS

This is the year Flyer fans should recognize some changing winds at Baujan Field because the wait is over for immediate difference-makers on the pitch. Golz’ recruiting class addresses a number of key areas the Flyers struggled with over the last two seasons: speed, athletic ability, and individual dynamic foot skills capable of turning something out of nothing. The freshmen class brings this. What they also bring are undeveloped college bodies and no experience, but if the upperclassmen play more like frosh and sophs, the Flyer coaching staff may defer to the young pups and play for the future.

Expect early contributions from midfielders Landy Mertz, Audrey Steiert, and Yaiza Navarro Leon. It’s an area of the field the Flyers can no longer afford to fill with traffic pylons. The first players that step up and do something – anything – dynamic will get the bulk of the minutes. Marlee Taylor will also be in the mix somewhere, while Laney Huber and Alex Goins can play in the midfield or up top. Expect some or all of these players to push for starting positions early in the year. The Flyers need some offense and the coaching staff isn’t about to give the bulk of the minutes to juniors and seniors if the freshmen are 80-90% as good with four years of eligibility in front of them. That alone should make the upperclassmen better too – they know they aren’t safe anymore unlike the last couple of seasons. At least two or three could wind up on the A10 All-Rookie team and that would be a huge step forward for the Flyer program – just one incoming Flyer (Greene) has been recognized in the last two recruiting cycles. Our best bets are Huber, Mertz, and Navarro Leon, but none of them should be dismissed.

Freshman Mackenzie Lutz adds some depth in the back line, though Bucknor and Pauley’s positions appear safe. The Flyers also added another goalkeeper in Madelyn Dewey.

SCHEDULE

There are enough potential Ws on the schedule to feel good about UD’s chances to finish above .500 this year, but it won’t be easy. Miami OH (H), Illinois (A), Xavier (A), DePaul (H), Bowling Green (A), Indiana State (H), Louisville (A), and Eastern Michigan (H) comprise the non-conference schedule. There are five or six possible wins there, but also five or six potential losses. The A10 schedule pits Dayton against George Mason (H), Rhode Island (H), Saint Louis (A), St. Bonaventure (A), Davidson (H), UMass (A), Duquesne (H), VCU (A), Fordham (H), and LaSalle(A). Most of the top teams in the A10 preseason poll are away from Baujan Field. It will take a gritty effort to secure another A10 Tournament berth.

WHAT MUST GO RIGHT

A lot of things. There’s room for improvement in all phases: defending one vs one, ball-striking ability, playing off the ball, and winning loose balls in the midfield. In many respects, the Flyers must start mastering the basics this year. Simple traps and passes must be tighter and more accurate to reflect a program moving forward from ‘just hanging on’ to ‘asserting pressure points’ all over the field.

The scoring average must improve as well – one goal a game isn’t enough. Dayton can’t (and won’t) beat anyone half-way respectable unless the firepower is there to win 2-1 or 3-2. The goals must come from somewhere. Other than Livingston, there are no proven scorers however and we already want more production from Micayla. Many players were recruited to put the ball in the back of the net. If they aren’t doing that, some self-examination is required.

The key to the entire season rests in the midfield however. If there is improvement, the Flyers will take a step forward. If there isn’t, expect more frustration. Golz has yet to enjoy the luxury of central playmakers capable of digging out 50/50 balls, holding possession, distributing to forwards, and tracking back on defense. Now would be a great time to start and it might take a few freshmen to make it happen. Properly-weighted passes to the touch lines would allow Dayton to apply more pressure on opposing defenses. The mids must send fewer balls over the end line and more balls to the feet of teammates pushing forward or overlapping on the flanks. Win the ball, shield the ball, and make the easy pass. Dayton doesn’t need Nicole Waters to come out of retirement, but they do need an honest presence that can slow opposing midfielders down while jumpstarting the Flyer offense.

Goalkeeping must also be solid. Fans grew accustomed to Kaelyn Johns making neck-breaking tackles at the top of the box to suffocate opposing defenders over her 4-year career, but someone else must pick up where she left off. Our money is on Carly Becker. She doesn’t need to win games for UD; she just needs to avoid losing them.

PREDICTIONS

The 2019 season should be judged like the second day of the Master’s golf tournament. It’s not ‘Moving Day’ yet, but it’s an opportunity to find the fairways and greens that were missed in the opening round. Consistency will set up next year (Moving Day) and 2021 is the final round where the Flyers should have an honest chance to post a winning score if the putts drop.
For now, this is a team with few difference-makers despite the experience.

There is a healthy dose of new talent in the freshmen class, but they lack experience and a couple years in a college weight room. There’s no easy way out of this pickle. Every option has risk and it’s the coaching staff’s job to figure out the best lineup with the fewest liabilities.

This is also the first season where freshmen can and should contribute right away. That used to be an annual occurrence in the UD women’s soccer program but the last couple of recruiting classes were pretty lean. Expect Golz to push the young players hard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see half the starting lineup comprised of first-year players by the start of conference play. To build for the future he must play the future. It may cost UD a game or two this year, but the payoff down the road is exponential.

In the meantime, Bucknor, Pauley, Greene, and Henderson offer some stability. If someone lights a match under Livingston and Mink, the offense won’t have to rely on the youth movement nearly as often. These two seniors need to finish their careers by blazing guns and making up for lost time.

In order to compete for A10 regular season championships, coaches must be able to rattle off their All-Conference players. Golz doesn’t have that luxury as no Flyer was recognized on the 2019 preseason A10 All-Conference team. Dayton will win by throwing bodies at the opposition and rolling with the hot hand. In exhibition play, the strategy looked promising: Dayton had little dropoff when going to the bench. That hasn’t been the case in the past two seasons.

Despite the question marks – there are as many if not more this season than the prior two – the temperature of the program right now feels like it’s warming. Dayton reached basecamp and now the slow but methodical climb to the mountaintop commences. On paper this team probably has more talent than last year, though much of it resides in the incoming class. The lifeblood of any strong program is recruiting and we’re starting to see the results of Golz’ efforts. He’ll need a couple more recruiting cycles, but the trajectory is looking up. Still, upperclassmen must keep everything glued together early in the season.

The A10 pegged the Flyers sixth in the preseason conference poll – a league finish that would eclipse the results of the prior two years. In the past, the A10 over-estimated UD’s chances and didn’t see what we saw – a program in transition. Now they see it too and want to see the Flyers fight from behind. A 6th place finish is doable but the A10 schedule is difficult. Dayton could end up anywhere from 5th to 8th, but we do believe UD will once again qualify for the A10 postseason tournament (although it might come down to the final weekend again).

When November rolls around, this team should be more dangerous then UD teams of recent past. It’s a group that will get better throughout the season and as the defense finds their new identity and newcomers take on leading roles, fans will see glimpses of a promising future. The offense will also be better. Pestell was a tremendous player but burdened with far too much on her plate to lead an offense from the back line. The Flyers have more options this year and the speed/athleticism gap with the rest of the A10 should narrow as well.

Dayton is still a year away from being a year away, but two seasons ago they were five years away. The process has been aggarvating at times, but Golz and his staff are rebuilding things the right way. This team will be his first at Dayton to show some flashes of upper-tier skill and potential. They won’t be often enough to compete at the top of the A10, but the progress will be noticeable. From here on, its two steps forward and one step back rather than cha’cha’ing in place far too often. UD might even lose more games than last year but don’t focus on the wins and losses exclusively. The run-of-play should be a step forward as UD keeps the ball in the fairway and out of the trees. It may not sound like much, but it’s a big step. Dayton can’t find the green next year without it.

A10 PREDICTION: 7th
A10 TOURNAMENT: QUARTERFINALS
POSTSEASON: NONE
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