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Texas A&M - Cardinal Classic Preview
Texas A&M - Cardinal Classic Preview
Published by BeckysTXA
08-28-2019
Texas A&M - Cardinal Classic Preview

Dayton travels to Louisville, KY this weekend for the first three contests of the 2019 season. This will be one of the toughest pre-conference tournaments in the country featuring Texas A&M, #25 Louisville and #10 Florida.

TXAM - Friday, August 30 @ 4:30 pm

Tim Horsmon & Company have done a masterful job of finding unranked prep talent that has huge upside. R-Jr MB Olivia Dubay might be this year’s candidate that fits that model. Recent examples were Amber Erahon and Lauren Bruns. Neither were Top 250 recruits coming out of high school but went on to become All-Americans. Erahon was named A10 POY and a honorable mention AA. Bruns was not only honored as A10 POY her senior year, but her performance was the greatest season ever by a Flyer outside hitter. She earned AA honorable mention status but, Prepvolleyball.com, that also covers the collegiate game, said Bruns deserved to be a Third Team AA.

The NCAA has a committee of college coaches evaluating video submitted for potential AA candidates every year. These coaches have been evaluating most of these players since they were ten years old coming up through the club volleyball organizations. They’ve watched the elite college players for a decade. They recruit them. They vote them as Top 100-250 recruits and then slot them onto the D1 AA teams. It’s rare a player can crack into the awards safe in college if they weren’t given a key to that safe long before acquiring keys to a car.

But Horsmon & Company have found those who have the potential to do just that and then helped them reach their potential while delivering A10 Championships for UD. All the while, Horsmon & Company have chipped away at bringing in more and more top recruits raising the program to a level where a deep run in the NCAAs will no longer rely on the diamond-in-the-rough players raising their games to new heights. This year the UD squad has ten Top 250s of which only one is a freshman and three are Top 100s. With only two graduating next spring, and more coming in the next couple freshman classes, this program is set for a return to the Top 25 for several years to come. This year, UD could field a rotation of all ranked recruits. However, with a roster of 18, we still have unranked players that will play key roles. Players like Dubay and So DS Liz House. When you add it all up, this is the greatest assembly of volleyball talent UD has ever had from top to bottom and position to position. And, like all DI sports, the elite teams revolve around reloading their rosters with elite prep talent. Dayton has a competitive edge in that the coaching staff has found and developed those unranked players with huge upside. But, in the end it will be the program’s ability to land a greater percentage of ranked players and seeing them develop and improve just as much as those diamonds-in-the-rough from the past. If we stay healthy, it will be one heck of a season.

This first weekend at the Louisville Cardinal Classic is brutal. As much elite-talent as UD has this year, the three teams we play this weekend have as much…or MORE.

Texas A&M

The Aggies hired Laura “Bird” Kuhn away from Kansas last year. During her seven years at Kansas, Kuhn was named the National Assistant Coach of the Year, helped the Jayhawks to a Final Four and a final ranking of #3 in 2015. In 2016 Kansas won its first Big 12 Championship. To do that you have to finish better than powerhouse Texas. Kuhn is under 40 and has established herself as a young talented coach that’s proving to be a competitive recruiter. In 2018 in her first five months at A&M, she landed a class that received honorable mention in the rankings. She followed that up this year with the 27th ranked class including the #17 and #94 recruits as well as two Top 250s. TXAM finished 17-13 last year, but went 5-0 on neutral courts which is where we meet in Louisville.

It’s projected Fr RS Treyaunna Rush (#17 recruit) will see action against the Flyers. Prepvolleyball.com reported, “Rush is the headliner in this class…Rush is an agile, dynamic, left-handed athlete who jump touches 10-6 and hits with such power and explosiveness that it provoked frenzy in the high school crowds in Texarkana, TX. Her big arm and physicality is expected to make her a presence in the SEC and nationally immediately.” It should be noted left-handed players playing the right-side OH have the same swing motion and angle advantages as a right-handed hitter playing the left-side OH.

Rush will be complimenting a trio of post-season award winners. Sr OH Hollann Han (#34 recruit) was the 2018 AVCA Regional POY and SEC All-Conference. Jr S Camille Conner (#94 recruit) was AVCA All-Region and So MB London Austin-Roark (250) was an SEC All-Freshman last year. A&M only graduated a L/DS. They will also be more comfortable with Kuhn’s systems, in her second year. Although, like Dayton, the Aggies received zero votes in the preseason AVCA poll, other preseason polls have them ranked as high as #26. The SEC is tough, but I expect the Aggies to be invited to dance. They have built their OOC schedule to qualify for the double bonus when 50% of the opponents are Top 75 RPI teams. (More on that in a future article.) A 20-win season is an easy projection.

TXAM also scheduled a tough exhibition match last week, falling to #20 Baylor 3-1. UD beat #12 ranked Pittsburgh 3-2 in a 5-set thriller. Both teams learned a lot in those matches.

“Overall, we competed (against Pitt), which is a great way to begin the competitive portion of our season,” said Flyer Head Coach Tim Horsmon. “Facing a team like Pitt on our home court was a great way to wrap up preseason, expose more of what we need to work on, and get a match under our belts.”

The Pittsburgh match also helped Dayton evaluate its serve receive. “Pitt is a very strong serving team, so facing that level this early in the season challenged our serve receive and offensive game,” Horsmon said. “We faced an aggressive service right away (against Pitt). We also hope that will continue to prepare us for our upcoming weekends.”

Fans tend to “think” aces define your level of aggressive serving. It’s really just a small part. The real stat that evaluates both your serving aggressiveness and serve receiving skills is a passing grade that is not part of the public stats. It should be. It would help advance the game with fans. Teams keep a point system for players that take serve receive. Based on a grading system of 0, 1, 2 or 3 points each pass off a serve is graded. The higher, the better. If the pass is delivered to the setter perfectly, giving the setter 3 hitter options, it receives a 3. If the serve receive pass results in an ace or an over-pass over the net, that pass results in zero hitter opportunities and receives a zero grade. A grade of 1 or 2 are somewhat subjective, but equate to the number of hitters the setter can realistically set the ball to, due to where they had to run on the court to reach the ball for a set.

With regard to aces per set stats from last year, Pitt was ranked #71. The rankings of the three teams we face this weekend are Texas A&M #65, Florida #61 and Louisville #87. UD was #202. From a fan’s perspective, more aggressive serving is one area of interest this season. It will take several matches into the year to evaluated the progress. Additionally, volleyball use to keep a receiving percentage for teams and players. This was a percentage of how many serves you received versus how many times you “got aced”. Sometimes an ace was credited to the “team” if it it fell between two players. The NCAA no longer keeps this stat and most teams no longer report the percentage in their box score.

TXAM will probably start Rush and possibly other freshmen. UD will not have any true freshmen in the rotation. Both teams will have second-year players at key positions. Youth may play a role, but the Flyers should have an edge. Countering this is TXAM will only have to prepare for two matches in two days. Dayton will be preparing for three matches in three days. We will play #10 Florida on Saturday and #25 Louisville on Sunday. FL and TXAM will not compete because both are SEC members. UD has only one senior, RS/MB Sierra Pla in the rotation, but with redshirt players factored in, the Flyers rotation features five players who have been in the program three or more years (Pla, R-Jr S/RS Brooke Westbeld, R-So OH Jamie Peterson, R-Jr MB Olivia Dubay and Jr S Bridget Doherty). All will be big factors this weekend.

TXAM also has ten Top 250 recruits on their roster. Six are Top 100s (#17, #34, #54, #94, #94 and #94). Dayton has three Top 100 (#23, #66 and #73). The factor that swings this to Dayton’s favor is only one of Dayton’s seven Top 250s is a true freshman (S Livie Sandt). Four of TXAM’s Top 250s are freshman. UD should have more elite-level talent playing in this match and that is the X-Factor. Dayton can win this match. My prediction is 3-1, but like Dayton, TXAM will be better this year than pre-season polls indicate.
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