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  #1  
Old 06-20-2021, 12:18 PM
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Top 144 countdown by collegesportsmadness.com, 2021-22 edition

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com...p-144-previews

And we're off and running...

144. Chattanooga
143. Georgia
121. RI, #7 A10
102. Dayton, #6 A10
085. Davidson, #5 A10...NIT
069. SLU, #4 A10...NIT
061. SMU, #4 AAC...NIT
053. Richmond, #3 A10...NIT
050. Mississippi, #8 SEC...NIT

Last edited by ud2; 09-21-2021 at 11:53 AM..
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  #2  
Old 06-20-2021, 12:47 PM
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Predicted CSM finish/Kenpom finish

2020-21...65/87
2019-20...51/4
2018-19...unranked/62
2017-18...53/172
Grant

2016-17...28/39
2015-16...38/59
2014-15...27/42
2013-14...48/42
2012-13...92/67
2011-12...120/69
Archie


Average: 67/64...almost dead on, pretty amazing...used #145 as 2018-2019 CSM ranking


2010-11...link is messed up/no ranking, the Flyers were projected to make the NCAAT by CSM/97
2009-10...link is messed up/no ranking, the Flyers were projected to make the NCAAT by CSM/26
BG

Last edited by ud2; 06-20-2021 at 12:53 PM..
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  #3  
Old 06-20-2021, 01:00 PM
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Hurray - countdown has started!

I'll predict CSM 50, kenpom finish 23.

Good years ahead.
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  #4  
Old 06-20-2021, 01:37 PM
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about right,
I'd love to fly under the radar but
don't think likely.... I would like:

CSM 70/Kenpom finish top 25
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  #5  
Old 06-23-2021, 01:34 AM
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Remember when UD played Miami OH every year, and that was a big deal?
Charlie Coles mixing laughs and sneers on the sideline? Devin Davis, Wally Szczerbiak, Damon Frierson and Ira Newble on the same team?
Well they're #142 in this ranking for next year ... and after a .500 season, they return their top nine players.
Maybe basketball will get a little interesting in Oxford again this year.
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  #6  
Old 06-23-2021, 11:48 AM
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what I'll remember about Miami is the
other half of possibly the greatest backcourt
in the history of Ohio high school..
Donald Smith and Phil Lumpkin, Roth
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  #7  
Old 07-27-2021, 11:06 AM
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121. Rhode Island
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  #8  
Old 07-27-2021, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by kman84ud View Post
121. Rhode Island
Their fans will be very disappointed if they finish at #121, not sure if hc David Cox survives such a finish, 2 straight NCAAT's under Hurley followed by 3 years of no NIT or NCAAT under Cox.

RI #7 A10 prediction.

Last edited by ud2; 08-01-2021 at 11:50 AM..
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  #9  
Old 08-01-2021, 11:43 AM
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Dayton #102, #6 A10, I was expecting a lot better to be honest, I hope they're way off. I was thinking at least a NIT year, so no worse than around #70.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19645:

One still feels bad for Dayton and the timing of the cancellation of the 2019-2020 season. The Flyers were 29-2 overall and a perfect 18-0 in A-10 play and had the potential to make an historic NCAA Tournament run. A season later and the Flyers fell to 14-10 and 9-6 in conference play. That was still enough to get them to the NIT. Once again Dayton is going to have to rebuild after losing four starters from last season. However, Coach Anthony Grant has talent on the roster. It is young talent, but if everything comes together, the Flyers could be playing great basketball by March.
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  #10  
Old 08-01-2021, 03:03 PM
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We will be very upset if the Flyers finish at #102. Fortunately this predictions probably means little. Has anyone seen any comparison to final season results versus their predictions?
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  #11  
Old 08-01-2021, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Dayton #102, #6 A10, I was expecting a lot better to be honest, I hope they're way off. I was thinking at least a NIT year, so no worse than around #70.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19645:

One still feels bad for Dayton and the timing of the cancellation of the 2019-2020 season. The Flyers were 29-2 overall and a perfect 18-0 in A-10 play and had the potential to make an historic NCAA Tournament run. A season later and the Flyers fell to 14-10 and 9-6 in conference play. That was still enough to get them to the NIT. Once again Dayton is going to have to rebuild after losing four starters from last season. However, Coach Anthony Grant has talent on the roster. It is young talent, but if everything comes together, the Flyers could be playing great basketball by March.
I hope the Flyers will have it together in November. Planning a trip to ORLANDO!
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  #12  
Old 08-01-2021, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
We will be very upset if the Flyers finish at #102. Fortunately this predictions probably means little. Has anyone seen any comparison to final season results versus their predictions?
Post #2 above, they were pretty accurate with Archie's teams, but have been all over the map with Grant's teams.
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  #13  
Old 08-01-2021, 03:44 PM
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Dayton

has a brand new roster. Do you realize how tough a time inexperienced teams have in College basketball?
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Old 08-01-2021, 05:46 PM
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This team could have used a trip to Europe or somewhere for some exhibition games and a bonding experience. Chalk up another defeat to Covid.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:23 AM
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NIT needs to be the floor or don’t talk to me about “Gonzaga of the East.”

Wild card is home attendance. Get your vaccine and lean on friends and family. Can’t afford to have health restrictions again.
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Old 08-02-2021, 09:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Dayton #102, #6 A10, I was expecting a lot better to be honest, I hope they're way off . . .

A top 4 finish in the A10 is a must. That's the make or break number for this season.

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Old 08-03-2021, 12:44 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
We will be very upset if the Flyers finish at #102. Fortunately this predictions probably means little. Has anyone seen any comparison to final season results versus their predictions?
I think what is happening is that last year is negatively impacting the outlook for this year. They use last year as a baseline for this year's prediction. Last year was crazy.

Everybody on here knows that I am not Grant's biggest fan, but nevertheless, I do believe that the roster is very talented, so I think some of these projections are overly pessimistic. I think this team will at least make the NIT and will be in contention for a NCAAT bid.
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Old 08-03-2021, 01:10 AM
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Stony Brook comes in at 100 (ranked above Dayton) and rated to go to the NCAA (winning the American East conference). Frankie Policelli (former Dayton player) is averaging over 10 points per game for Stony Brook.
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Old 08-03-2021, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Stony Brook comes in at 100 (ranked above Dayton) and rated to go to the NCAA (winning the American East conference). Frankie Policelli (former Dayton player) is averaging over 10 points per game for Stony Brook.
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And I would bet my life savings that the Flyers will finish with a better NET than Stoneybrook. These guys have a pretty bad track record of prognosticating.
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Old 08-03-2021, 11:21 AM
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And now NC State at #99. These guys are whacko.
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Old 08-03-2021, 02:31 PM
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Predictions are guesses, nothing more. Just look at the A-10 preseason rankings the past few years. ... And now add in about a billion transfers for this season to make things even more sketchy. Come January, we'll know a few things.
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Old 08-03-2021, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
And I would bet my life savings that the Flyers will finish with a better NET than Stoneybrook. These guys have a pretty bad track record of prognosticating.
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
And now NC State at #99. These guys are whacko.
Pretty good record of predictions with Archie, bad with Grant, Grant's teams have been much more up and down, so they are harder to predict. They are only 1/4 correctly predicting the postseason outcome for Grant, but were 5/6 with Archie.

I at least appreciate that they list all of their past predictions so that their past accuracy can be gauged.


Predicted CSM finish/Kenpom finish

2020-21...65/87...predicted NIT, made NIT
2019-20...51/4...predicted NIT, made NCAAT
2018-19...unranked/62...predicted no postseason, made NIT
2017-18...53/172...predicted NIT, made no postseason
Grant

2016-17...28/39...predicted NCAAT, made NCAAT
2015-16...38/59...predicted NCAAT, made NCAAT
2014-15...27/42...predicted NCAAT, made NCAAT
2013-14...48/42...predicted NCAAT, made NCAAT
2012-13...92/67...predicted no postseason, made no postseason
2011-12...120/69...predicted no postseason, made NIT
Archie
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  #23  
Old 08-06-2021, 09:45 AM
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Wright State is ranked at 96 and winning the Horizon league. Their senior center went undrafted in the NBA draft and has signed with a pro team in France.
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Old 08-09-2021, 01:28 PM
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Cincinnati comes in at 93 on this countdown. Cincinnati has certainly had its share of drama recently. I am very intrigued by the social dynamics of a new head coach bringing three players as transfers from his previous university to the new team. As the head coach, he must be elated that these players were willing to make that move, fill out all the paperwork and negotiate with the open slots to make this happen. It should be easier to implement a new basketball platform with three players that already know the system. This is only feasible when players do not have to sit out a year in order to play and did not lose a year of eligibility last year.

UNC Greensboro fans must be in shock to lose their head coach plus watch three players follow him out the door. What kind of trauma would Dayton fans feel if this happened to them?
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Old 08-09-2021, 06:32 PM
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[QUOTE=Buckleyma;666790]Cincinnati comes in at 93 on this countdown. Cincinnati has certainly had its share of drama recently. I am very intrigued by the social dynamics of a new head coach bringing three players as transfers from his previous university to the new team. As the head coach, he must be elated that these players were willing to make that move, fill out all the paperwork and negotiate with the open slots to make this happen. It should be easier to implement a new basketball platform with three players that already know the system. This is only feasible when players do not have to sit out a year in order to play and did not lose a year of eligibility last year.

UNC Greensboro fans must be in shock to lose their head coach plus watch three players follow him out the door. What kind of trauma would Dayton fans feel if this happened to them?
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That's one of the positives in having AG, that won't happen here. Given success, he is a lifer.
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Old 08-16-2021, 10:28 PM
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Davidson comes in at 85 and 5th in the Atlantic 10. Davidson lost three players who transferred out. I am not sure how that translates into Davidson finishing ahead of Dayton in the Atlantic 10.
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Old 08-18-2021, 12:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Davidson comes in at 85 and 5th in the Atlantic 10. Davidson lost three players who transferred out. I am not sure how that translates into Davidson finishing ahead of Dayton in the Atlantic 10.
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They lost Kellan Grady and his 17 ppg to Kentucky, and they lost Carter Collins and his 11 ppg to Murray State, 2 gut punches, has to hurt.

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Old 08-18-2021, 09:30 AM
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Analytics and Dayton

The Top 144 contain some interesting observations about last year's Flyer team. Their standing within the A-10:
Offense: 10th
Defense: 7th
FG %: 1st
FG Defense: 6th
3 PT FG/Game: 4th
3 PT %: 1st
FT %: 6th
Reb Margin: 7th
Assists/Game: 7th
Turnovers/Game: 7th
Dayton has a lot of improving to do this year with one of the least experienced teams in recent history. Performance is key and rookies have a lot of learning to do. Abandon your expectations and enjoy what they will become one game at a time.
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Old 08-19-2021, 12:27 PM
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CSM's NIT cutoff is #87 Buffalo, seems a little high, #68 or so would be more accurate. But I suppose they are adding in the 22 non at-large caliber NCAAT auto bids, so the NIT cutoff is more sort of like #65, but not all 22 of the auto bids is a top 87 team, it's a little murky IMO, perhaps I am overlooking something.


...68 ncaat teams, maybe about 22(only the winners of the top 9 or so conferences of the 31 conferences are NCAA at-large caliber teams)of those auto bids being non at-large caliber teams, so the top 46(68-22)teams get the rest
...in 2019, the last sort of normal NIT, there were 22 at-large NIT bids, the other 10 NIT bids were auto bids
...so maybe the top 68 or so(46+22)teams are at-large quality NCAAT/NIT teams

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Old 08-29-2021, 11:37 AM
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Ohio university in Athens comes in on this countdown as number 73 and with a predicted finish of second in the MAC conference. But, I understood that former Dayton Flyer Luke Frazier was transferring to Ohio? I do not see him mentioned on this countdown page. I also checked the Ohio roster for next year and his name is not on that roster. Anybody know where Luke Frazier landed?
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Old 08-29-2021, 12:58 PM
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Some guy had tweeted Frazier to Ohio, then offered up a retraction. No word on where Luke has landed if anywhere. Maybe hes taking a year off.
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Old 08-30-2021, 11:24 AM
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https://www.foxsports.com/college-ba...frazier-player
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Old 09-01-2021, 04:31 PM
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Clemson comes in at 70 on countdown. I see that the former Wright State basketball coach, Brad Brownell, is still head coach at Clemson.
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Old 09-02-2021, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
Clemson comes in at 70 on countdown. I see that the former Wright State basketball coach, Brad Brownell, is still head coach at Clemson.
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Yes, he has not exactly set the world on fire there, 12 years, 3 ncaat, 3 NIT, Purnell did the same in half the time, 6 years, 3 ncaat, 3 NIT. But, BB did finally win at UNC for the first time ever breaking Clemson's 0-59 losing streak there, and Clemson made the ncaat last year, so they brought him back this year.

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Old 09-02-2021, 12:09 PM
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SLU #69, #4 A10

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19762

4 new transfers.

Javonte Perkins returns, 17 ppg last year
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Old 09-02-2021, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Some guy had tweeted Frazier to Ohio, then offered up a retraction. No word on where Luke has landed if anywhere. Maybe hes taking a year off.
Thought he took last year off.
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Old 09-02-2021, 12:15 PM
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So, SBU, Richmond, and I guess VCU will be the top 3.
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Old 09-02-2021, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
SLU #69, #4 A10

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19762

4 new transfers.

Javonte Perkins returns, 17 ppg last year
I am surprised that Yuri Collins only averaged 5 points per game, last year. He is a better scorer than that. I figure his points per game number goes up, this year.
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Old 09-10-2021, 02:53 PM
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https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19783

SMU #61, #4 AAC...NIT projection

Kendric Davis 19 ppg

2 brothers are on the team, the Weathers brothers

10 new players, wow, 5 transfers and 5 incoming freshmen

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Old 09-10-2021, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19783

SMU #61, #4 AAC...NIT projection

Kendric Davis 19 ppg

2 brothers are on the team, the Weathers brothers

10 new players, wow, 5 transfers and 5 incoming freshmen
We saw Marcus Weathers in a Duquesne shirt. Now we will see him , again, in an SMU shirt.
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  #41  
Old 09-17-2021, 01:13 PM
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https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19798

Louisville #54, NIT projection...surprising, Louisville expects better than that...NCAA violations and now a NIT appearance, Chris Mack trending in the wrong direction
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Old 09-17-2021, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19783

SMU #61, #4 AAC...NIT projection

Kendric Davis 19 ppg

2 brothers are on the team, the Weathers brothers

10 new players, wow, 5 transfers and 5 incoming freshmen
Sort of like our situation, but we're slotted 40 spots lower. I guess their incoming players are just that much better. We'll find out soon enough!
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Old 09-18-2021, 09:41 AM
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https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19799

Richmond 53/#3 A10

NIT projection
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Old 09-20-2021, 09:51 AM
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They have Loyola Marymount at #51, #3 in the WCC, NIT projection, they have not made the NIT or NCAAT since 1990 with Gathers and Kimble.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19807


Look at these scores, 1988, 1989, and 1990 NCAAT, scored 97 or more points in 6 of 7 games.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loyo...9;s_basketball
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Old 09-21-2021, 11:49 AM
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https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19809

Ole Miss #50/#8 SEC/NIT
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Old 09-24-2021, 09:55 AM
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Is Mark Adams at Texas Tech

related to our Mark Adams?
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Old 09-27-2021, 10:00 AM
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Wichita State #44, #3 in AAC...NCAAT projection

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19828
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Old 10-05-2021, 09:08 AM
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VCU comes in at 36 in the countdown and second in the A10. There is an unfortunate incorrect wording in the text. The text mentions that VCU lost to Oregon in the first round of the NCAA. This text should have said that the game was uncontested due to COVID positive test results. The rest of the text appears more or less correct.
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Old 10-05-2021, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Buckleyma View Post
VCU comes in at 36 in the countdown and second in the A10. There is an unfortunate incorrect wording in the text. The text mentions that VCU lost to Oregon in the first round of the NCAA. This text should have said that the game was uncontested due to COVID positive test results. The rest of the text appears more or less correct.
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Without Ace Baldwin and Jamir Watkins, VCU is not going to be a top40 team this year.
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Old 10-12-2021, 12:27 PM
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https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19880

LSU #29, #5 SEC...Why did cheater Will Wade get to keep his job? He got caught red handed. Most schools would have fired him years ago. What is it with LSU? LSU is ethically-challenged.

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Old 10-16-2021, 04:26 PM
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Syracuse #25, #5 AAC...both of Boeheim's sons are on the team...Jimmy transferred in from Cornell University...Jimmy has 1 year of eligibility left and is eligible this year, I have no idea if he will get any playing time.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19891

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Old 10-20-2021, 01:36 PM
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Flyers ooc opponent Virginia Tech #21, #4 ACC.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19912
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Old 10-22-2021, 10:18 AM
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Bonnies #1 in the A10, #19

5 players averaged at least 33 mpg and double figures scoring last year, all 5 are back, they will be a force.

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/19918
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Old 10-22-2021, 10:22 AM
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#19 St Bonaventure

7th in the nation in defense! This team is really strong. But CAG competes very well against them. Go Flyers!
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