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  #1  
Old 05-11-2022, 05:04 PM
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Which long-shot team could be college basketball's Rich Strike, win 2023 NCAA Tournament

From CBS Sports:

Which long-shot team could be college basketball's Rich Strike, win 2023 NCAA Tournament
By David Cobb

The parallels between college basketball and horse racing are minimal, but one trait both sports share is that their fanbases each love to bet on underdogs. It was less than two months ago when the nation began falling in love with Saint Peter's as the No. 15 seed Peacocks made a miraculous run that began with an all-time-great upset of Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Anyone who wagered on Saint Peter's during its legendary march to the Elite Eight embraced the Peacocks' underdog status in each game they won. But Saint Peter's couldn't win it all like Rich Strike did on Saturday in the Kentucky Derby. With 80-1 odds, Rich Strike came from behind to win and became the second-biggest long shot to ever capture the Kentucky Derby.

Could a team with such long odds in this era of college basketball win the national title? While the NCAA Tournament regularly produces unexpected deep runs from poorly seeded teams, it's usually a big name that ends up hoisting the trophy in the end. With the help of early national title odds from Caesars Sportsbook, our writers are looking ahead to the 2022-23 season and paying homage to Rich Strike by picking the team with odds of 80-1 or worse who they think could capture the national title trophy next season.

Here are the picks from CBS Sports college basketball experts Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Kyle Boone and David Cobb.

Dayton
Odds: 150-1

I obviously don't believe any team with 80-1 odds (or worse) is winning a national title. It's possible but improbable. That said, I'll go with Dayton because the Flyers are the highest-ranked team in my Top 25 And 1 that meets this question's criteria. They're 100-1 to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament -- but I like them better than that. Dayton is returning the top five scorers from a team that was literally the last to be cut from the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Four of those players -- among them former top-100 high school prospect DaRon Holmes, who averaged a team-high 12.8 points and 6.1 rebounds -- were freshmen who will be sophomores. If they develop and grow together properly, the Flyers should compete with Saint Louis at the top of the Atlantic 10. -- Gary Parrish

Providence
Odds: 100-1

It's hard to envision anyone that's +7000 or worse winning the 2023 title, but then: that's the point of this post. Gimme Ed Cooley's guys. The Friars are coming off their first regular-season Big East title in program history, a Sweet 16 run for the first time under Cooley and will bring back Jared Bynum. Louisville's Noah Locke (9.6 ppg), South Carolina's Devin Carter (9.0 ppg) and Kentucky's Bryce Hopkins (a paltry 2.1 ppg) could easily transition to having big-time transfer seasons the way Al Durham and Noah Horchler did last season. The Big East will also be a bit more for the taking next season. Creighton is probably the favorite, but Villanova will be more of an unknown in '22-23 than at any point in the past decade. Program momentum is there, and it's not hard to see the Friars getting a 5-seed or better again. They're my Rich Strike candidate. Speaking of that, there might not be a coach I'd rather see work the track than Cooley. -- Matt Norlander

LSU
Odds: 150-1

LSU fired Will Wade just before the 2022 NCAA Tournament and shrewdly snagged Matt McMahon from Murray State. Since his arrival, McMahon has effectively made LSU the Murray State of the South -- but in the most endearing way possible -- by grabbing transfer commitments from three of the Racers' top four scorers last season on a team that went 31-3 and did not lose in Ohio Valley Conference play. LSU also has two top-100 incoming recruits and three other committed transfers in NC State's Cam Hayes, Mississippi State's Derek Fountain and Northwestern State's Kendal Coleman. The Tigers are a total wild card -- how Murray State's talent transfers up is a question, and replacing effectively the entire roster is a major unknown -- but McMahon is a revered tactician who appears to be starting with a clean slate in Baton Rouge. If the unknowns become knowns, and good knowns at that, then LSU could emerge out of nowhere from an interesting program on the come-up to a real contender next season. -- Kyle Boone

Miami
Odds: 150-1

If coach Jim Larranaga can foster some depth out of the youthful back half of his roster, his team could build off its 2022 success and be a dark horse national contender next season. The Hurricanes are losing a couple of studs from their Elite Eight team in Kam McGusty and Charlie Moore. But with the help of booster John Ruiz, they have landed two of the top-ranked transfers this offseason in former Kansas State guard Nijel Pack and ex-Arkansas State forward Norchad Omier.

Star guard Isaiah Wong is coming back after threatening to leave if his NIL compensation wasn't increased. He's expected to be joined by veteran contributors Anthony Walker and Jordan Miller. Those three, combined with the two big-time incoming transfers, give Miami a formidable and experienced starting five. Replacing the rim protection provided by graduated big man Sam Waardenburg will be among the hurdles. But if four-star freshman center Favour Aire can help out, this team can be in the hunt even with odds that currently sit at 150-1. -- David Cobb
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Old 05-11-2022, 08:03 PM
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I bet my boss $50 in 2020 Dayton would be a final 4 team in ‘23 or ‘24.
He is now concerned, although the money doesn’t phase us, just the pride.
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Old 05-11-2022, 08:39 PM
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It'll never happen The Kentucky Derby is the equivalent of one possession in basketball. And any basketball team can win a possession against any other. But to win the National Championship, you have to win the most possessions for 6 straight games, assuming you get there to begin with.

What happened in this years Derby is that an unprecedented pace was set early and all the key players were gassed coming down the stretch. I think Rich Strike ran the last 1/4th of a mile in 22 and change(which is good, but it's just that he was able to do it late while taking it easy early. None of the other horses that he caught did better than 25 and change. That's 3 seconds which equates to more than 15 lengths. That's terrible.

Let's say the super fast pace is equivalent to a heavy underdog basketball team coming out and surprisingly playing full court pressure from the get go to get a quick 10 point lead. The coach calls timeout and readjusts for it and the game goes on and favorite probably comes back and wins. There's no timeouts in horseracing to adjust.

Last edited by Smitty10; 05-11-2022 at 08:41 PM..
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Old 05-12-2022, 08:56 AM
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To say it is like one possession is way understated. It would be more like that horse winning the Triple Crown.
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Old 05-12-2022, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
To say it is like one possession is way understated. It would be more like that horse winning the Triple Crown.
The way Rich Strike was so strong down the stretch it is possible, especially at Belmont.
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Old 05-12-2022, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
The way Rich Strike was so strong down the stretch it is possible, especially at Belmont.
Doubt it. He wasn't as strong down the stretch as he looked. When the best of the others are running 25 and something, it just looks that way. And there's no way the pace will come close to that hot on the 1.5 big sandy.

But as far as if he would win the TC, that still wouldn't compare to a St. Peter or other comparables winning the championship. Lots of the best from the Derby will not bother with the Preakness(they feel if their not going to win the TC they aren't going to put their horses through a brutal 2 week turnaround). And then, when it comes to Belmont, many just aren't made to get the extra 1/4 mile. So if he's much better than expected and not a fluke, he could win the triple crown by default.

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Old 05-12-2022, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Not going to happen. He wasn't that strong down the stretch as he looked. When the best of the others are running 25 and something, it just looks that way. And there's no way the pace will come close to that hot on the 1.5 big sandy.
Yep, not gonna happen that an 80-1 horse will win the Kentucky Derby either
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Old 05-12-2022, 09:19 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
He wasn't that strong down the stretch as he looked.
Lol...what.
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Old 05-12-2022, 10:17 AM
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Talking

No, he wasn't that strong down the stretch, just 10 times stronger than every other horse in the field. But if they had a cheetah in the race, Rich Strike wouldn't have won.
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Old 05-12-2022, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
No, he wasn't that strong down the stretch, just 10 times stronger than every other horse in the field. But if they had a cheetah in the race, Rich Strike wouldn't have won.
Do you know anything about fractions in horseracing? If not, you and hawkoo(who knows nothing about basketball so I'm guessing he knows even less about thoroughbred racing) need to shut it.

Last edited by Smitty10; 05-12-2022 at 04:43 PM..
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Old 05-12-2022, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ClaytonFlyerFan View Post
Yep, not gonna happen that an 80-1 horse will win the Kentucky Derby either
80-1 doesn't surprise me. Derby's had huge long shots win all the time. But one that's only win came in a 30 thousand maiden claimer 8 months ago as a 2 year old, and only got in the field due to a last second scratch, that's unbelievable. But as I said, when the pace setters run 21 and 3 in the 1st quarter, weird crap will happen and it did (that first quarter was an all time derby record). I will bet that this horse does not beat Epicenter again, ever.

The leaders in the stretch finished the final quarter in over 25 seconds, that's awful, pitiful, ridiculously slow (I don't know how many ways I can put it. Rich Strike ran it in a decent 22 and 3, that's 15 lengths which looks like he's flying when he's just running a good final sprint to the finish while the rest are crawling home.

A math lesson for you. Secretariat has the all time derby record at 1:59 and 4 The first quarter was run at 21 and 3. Multiply that out time 5 (5 quarters = a mile and quarter which is the Derby) and the comes out at 108 seconds which is a 1:48 (a good time for a mile and an 1/8 but no horse will ever do it in 1 and 1/4.

If someone ever runs 1:48 in Derby that would beat secretariat by 59 lengths.

Rich Strike ran it at over 2:02 which is respectable but not exceptional. He would've lost to Secretariat by over 11 lengths.

Last edited by Smitty10; 05-12-2022 at 05:07 PM..
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Old 05-12-2022, 05:43 PM
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I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.
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Old 05-12-2022, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.
Yep, Secretariat would have been the Glue that held the field together at the start..
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Old 05-12-2022, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
I don't know horse racing. But I do know not every race or every track is the same from day to day. I never said RS was strong down the strength, just that RS was many times stronger than every other horse on that track that day. Would Secretariat have won? Most likely.
Believe me, I wasn't adding the numbers to say Secretariat would win, I was trying to give some context to it and the early fractions. Secretariat would've won at 3 years old period. Secretariat is the only horse, ever, that could run 3/4 faster than they did in this derby and not give up the lead. He had a giant heart literally and was a freak that could pull it off. Secretariat was a super horse. Rich Strike is a decent horse that got lucky to run in a race with suicidal fractions.
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Old 05-12-2022, 07:35 PM
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Rich Strike is passing on the Preakness.
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Old 05-12-2022, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62 View Post
Rich Strike is passing on the Preakness.
Good for him. Saving him the embarrassment of proving what a fluke the Derby was.

Belmont will be interesting, because he's probably got enough stamina to finish in the money, but he will not have the kick to pass the others like they're standing still like he did at Churchill. Mo Denegal will probably finish in front of him at Belmont as he's better. Problem for him is he got stuck in the one hole and closers can't win out of the one hole.
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Old 05-12-2022, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Do you know anything about fractions in horseracing? If not, you and hawkoo(who knows nothing about basketball so I'm guessing he knows even less about thoroughbred racing) need to shut it.
wow, that's a little heavy. a little triggered over a bunch of off topic horse $hit?
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Old 05-12-2022, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by San Diego Flyer View Post
wow, that's a little heavy. a little triggered over a bunch of off topic horse $hit?
Yeah, I get triggered when I get made fun of for a post that's absolutely the truth and even the experts after the race made it clear that the torrid pace is why he won the race. And the hawkoo comment is a combination of the off topic here and on-topics elsewhere. You know the guy who called us all idiots for not wanting AG fired after 4 games and then after 7 games said "Well of course I don't want him fired now, only an idiot would." or something to that effect.

It's obvious that these are posters that are talking out of their butts and know nothing about thoroughbred racing other than horsee caught other horsees so he's faster than other horsees. Trust me, it's not that simple.

Last edited by Smitty10; 05-12-2022 at 08:16 PM..
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Old 05-18-2022, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Yeah, I get triggered when I get made fun of for a post that's absolutely the truth and even the experts after the race made it clear that the torrid pace is why he won the race. And the hawkoo comment is a combination of the off topic here and on-topics elsewhere. You know the guy who called us all idiots for not wanting AG fired after 4 games and then after 7 games said "Well of course I don't want him fired now, only an idiot would." or something to that effect.

It's obvious that these are posters that are talking out of their butts and know nothing about thoroughbred racing other than horsee caught other horsees so he's faster than other horsees. Trust me, it's not that simple.
No one cares that you know stuff about horse racing dude. The way you said it just sounded dumb so people roasted you. If you weren't Smitty10 it probably would've been ignored. Since you're constantly spouting off and putting people down you got made fun of. Oh well. The proper response is to laugh it off not get "triggered" and dig the hole deeper by explaining how smart you are about horses.
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Old 05-18-2022, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
No one cares that you know stuff about horse racing dude. The way you said it just sounded dumb so people roasted you. If you weren't Smitty10 it probably would've been ignored. Since you're constantly spouting off and putting people down you got made fun of. Oh well. The proper response is to laugh it off not get "triggered" and dig the hole deeper by explaining how smart you are about horses.
I explained it perfectly. 22 and change vs 25 and change. 22 and change good, 25 and change terrible. Being 3 seconds better running a good final 1/4, not a great one, isn't as fast as he looked.

You on the other hand are too ignorant to understand. Again, your basketball knowledge is pathetic for someone who shoots his mouth off on a basketball forum, but when you then try to critique someone's take on horseracing when you know even less about it than you do basketball(if that's possible) is just moronic. And what's now apparent, is you don't know math either.

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Old 05-19-2022, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
too ignorant your basketball knowledge is pathetic moronic. you don't know math either.
All ad hominem, no substance. Cool you know so much about horse racing though, congratulations (in my very best Richard Grant sarcastic voice).
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Old 05-19-2022, 11:02 AM
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Old 05-19-2022, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
All ad hominem, no substance. Cool you know so much about horse racing though, congratulations (in my very best Richard Grant sarcastic voice).
http://www.udpride.com/forums/showpo...2&postcount=20
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Old 05-19-2022, 10:53 PM
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I fail to see how my opinions of Grant, which are no secret to anyone, are relevant to any discussion in this thread.

Last edited by hawkoooo; 05-19-2022 at 10:58 PM..
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Old 05-20-2022, 12:45 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
I fail to see how my opinions of Grant, which are no secret to anyone, are relevant to any discussion in this thread.
lol, I've given plenty relevant to this thread. You on the other hand have added nothing. But, your chopped up quote seems to point on my opinion of your stupidity and I decided to provide an example. You really do come off as at least mildly retarded(I'm being generous) and that example shows it.
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Old 05-20-2022, 01:18 AM
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OK you two, Mom says it's time for bed.
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Old 05-20-2022, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Brad S. View Post
OK you two, Mom says it's time for bed.
Low hanging fruit. I'd like to see other posters on here be called a retard and not respond.
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Old 05-20-2022, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Low hanging fruit. I'd like to see other posters on here be called a retard and not respond.
Awww, don't get triggered lol

As a "special" poster once told me "The proper response is to laugh it off not get "triggered"."

Last edited by Smitty10; 05-20-2022 at 11:06 AM..
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Old 05-20-2022, 11:16 AM
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Ignore list FTW. I can't be the first. Bye Smitty10! Garbage takes from keyboard tough guys are a dime a dozen.
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Old 05-20-2022, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Ignore list FTW. I can't be the first. Bye Smitty10! Garbage takes from keyboard tough guys are a dime a dozen.
lol, TRIGGERED.
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Old 05-20-2022, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Brad S. View Post
OK you two, Mom says it's time for bed.
I guess we should be thankful it ended with the Ignore List this time. In February, Smitty had an argument with another poster that ended in a scheduled meeting time at an alley in Dayton in the middle of the night.

Dude has the ability to get under people's skin for sure.
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Old 05-20-2022, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Ignore list FTW. I can't be the first. Bye Smitty10! Garbage takes from keyboard tough guys are a dime a dozen.
Oh, you're not the first, but too many people quote him.
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Old 05-20-2022, 02:01 PM
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So, back to the actual topic.....anyone else think it was cool that Parrish pointed us out as a potential long shot that could make a nice run, and he actually paid attention as to why and made the correct comments.....top 5 scorers returning, of which 4 were Freshmen, and if they grow and develop correctly we should compete with Saint Louis at the top of A10? I thought it was cool. My only complaint.....if our guys grow and develop correctly it should be "will anyone, such as Saint Louis, be able to even compete with the obvious dominant kings of the A10, the Dayton Flyers!!"
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Old 05-20-2022, 02:02 PM
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Originally Posted by UDGutter2 View Post
Oh, you're not the first, but too many people quote him.
So let me get this straight. The two that admitted they know nothing about horse racing, yet made smart-a*ss remarks directed to someone that does, are now both triggered because they got called out for it.

Color me not surprised in the least. But please, put me on ignore. As long as I'm ignored by the likes of big mouth know-nothings, I'm better off.
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Old 05-20-2022, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by CraSch View Post
So, back to the actual topic.....anyone else think it was cool that Parrish pointed us out as a potential long shot that could make a nice run, and he actually paid attention as to why and made the correct comments.....top 5 scorers returning, of which 4 were Freshmen, and if they grow and develop correctly we should compete with Saint Louis at the top of A10? I thought it was cool. My only complaint.....if our guys grow and develop correctly it should be "will anyone, such as Saint Louis, be able to even compete with the obvious dominant kings of the A10, the Dayton Flyers!!"
It's cool because it's true and we, who watched our Flyers progress through the season can see it clearly. We're not used to the guys covering the forest to notice our tree.

And the SLU UD question is what comes down to who wins out between a very experienced team with very experienced talent vs a less experienced team with what appears a higher level of talent?

I think if you take from just last season, you would think the way our youth gained ground as the season wore on, would favor us. However, when you throw Javonte Perkins into the equation is becomes more muddied.
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Old 05-20-2022, 04:06 PM
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What began as a cool and relevant topic, has now become cow dung. Chris, can you put this thread to pasture? Sheez.
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Old 05-21-2022, 07:01 AM
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The strong recognition of the Flyers that we are seeing is the real message to me was the reason for sharing.
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Old 05-21-2022, 01:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post

As a "special" poster once told me "The proper response is to laugh it off not get "triggered"."
It just struck me that we have a Vice President that has that down to a stone cold science at least twice every week. Doesn't work for her either.

Also, it seems that Gary Parrish has had our back a number of times. We need to enjoy that kind of praise any way, and as often, as we can get it.
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Old 05-23-2022, 08:50 AM
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Back during the "season of 6" CBS sports did a "night court report" or something like that where they'd have a daily run down of anything noteworthy that happened in college hoops the night before. It was manned by a couple of different reporters, Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, Jon Rothstein and maybe one other, each taking different days if the week. All 3 were still fairly young and upcoming reporters plus cbs sports was fairly new at the time and if you were really into college hoops it was a great read on the national landscape. I always felt that group at CBS was extremely impressed how those 6 scholarship players could consistently put up great performances night after night. In a world that covers a ton of UK, Duke and UNC, it had to be fun to be a national writer looking for a different angle to watch and follow that UD team and I believe that team left a strong impression on them. Even an otherwise ho-hum victory over Fordham would show up in the night court just to note again how UD and Archie were doing this with only 6 scholarship players.


Fast forward a few years and you had the Obi lead team, which was a ton of fun. Gary Parrish has a pretty good handle on the world of college hoops, he knows and talks about more than just Kentucky, Duke and Kansas and he was onto Obi before most, if not all national writers during his freshman season. His sophomore season he was singing UD's praises before Mauii which opened the eyes of the rest of the national reporting media.


Sure would be nice if his early preaching on UD's upcoming squad could lead to a similar type season as we had back then (just with out the Covid Cancellations please). This team has a ton of potential and could be very fun to watch. Could DaRon develop into a lottery pick in a year? Can Mali stay healthy and provide Crutcher type leadership? Can Camara do a bit of everything and show off the skills he displayed mid season forward? Can they share the ball without hesitation and buy into "the team" If those things can happen, its possible this team could be every bit as good as that team. He's to dreaming...
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