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11-27-2015, 01:08 AM
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Before the tournament logic
Before the tournament: "If we don't beat Iowa our season is sunk, we won't get to play any decent teams and the tournament will be a waste."
After our first game, is it possible our RPI would have been better had we lost to Iowa?
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11-27-2015, 01:39 AM
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...and to think that either Iowa or Notre Dame will play in the 7 vs 8 game on Sunday!
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11-27-2015, 01:41 AM
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Only time I worry about the RPI is when we are a bubble team and even then we can't do anything about it. You play the games one at a time and let the chips fall where they may.
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11-27-2015, 01:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Before the tournament: "If we don't beat Iowa our season is sunk, we won't get to play any decent teams and the tournament will be a waste."
After our first game, is it possible our RPI would have been better had we lost to Iowa?
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RPI Wizard shows our RPI projection is 5 spots better by beating Iowa, Monmouth, and x in comparison to losing to Iowa and beating Notre Dame and Wichita State.
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11-27-2015, 01:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
After our first game, is it possible our RPI would have been better had we lost to Iowa?
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No, because a win is much better than a loss, and there is no way of knowing whether we would have beat ND, etc.
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11-27-2015, 01:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Bill202
...and to think that either Iowa or Notre Dame will play in the 7 vs 8 game on Sunday!
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...and possibly face Wichita State. Ok, that won't happen because there's no way the Shockers lose to Alabama tomorrow...right?
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11-27-2015, 01:49 AM
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It's funny, I was "worried" about playing Monmouth and USC in the losers bracket, not the winners bracket.
Gotta love college basketball. Go Flyers.
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11-27-2015, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by 1903 Flyer
RPI Wizard shows our RPI projection is 5 spots better by beating Iowa, Monmouth, and x in comparison to losing to Iowa and beating Notre Dame and Wichita State.
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I'm not sure if that only uses current RPI or projects full season RPI. But it really seems like a loss to Iowa, and then wins against ND and WS would be better than a potential tournament sweep of Iowa, Monmouth, USC.
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11-27-2015, 08:26 AM
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No way to know what the future brings...Just Win Baby!!!
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11-27-2015, 10:44 AM
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I think the committee looks at how teams do in these holiday tournaments. It is probably one of the best indicators of how a team will play in the dance since the competition is good and it is on a neutral floor. If nothing else, it is part of the "eye test" that we love to moan about.
Monmouth has beaten UCLA (at Pauley Pavillion) and ND so far. They are going to win A LOT of games this year in the MAAC so their winning % will help our RPI. If we win, it will be another top 100 win at the end of the year.
I'm not discounting them either, they are hungry for another win and after beating UCLA at home and ND, I'm sure they are not scared of UD.
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11-27-2015, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
I think the committee looks at how teams do in these holiday tournaments. It is probably one of the best indicators of how a team will play in the dance since the competition is good and it is on a neutral floor. If nothing else, it is part of the "eye test" that we love to moan about.
Monmouth has beaten UCLA (at Pauley Pavillion) and ND so far. They are going to win A LOT of games this year in the MAAC so their winning % will help our RPI. If we win, it will be another top 100 win at the end of the year.
I'm not discounting them either, they are hungry for another win and after beating UCLA at home and ND, I'm sure they are not scared of UD.
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In speaking strictly in terms of the RPI, they are a good team to be playing for the reason you said. They will likely win a lot of games.
Monmouth has just one loss, and they have yet to play a home game. They've beaten UCLA and Notre Dame away from home. If they can pick up another win in this tournament, you have to start thinking of them as an NCAA Tournament team. There are teams on the bubble, and even inside the bubble, that don't manage three wins against other tournament teams away from home. Also, teams like Manhattan and Iona aren't typically thought of as at-large teams, but they are teams that win a lot of home games. If Monmouth can pick up a win at one or both places, the committee will likely give them credit for that as well.
....or, they could return to Earth and lose four out of their last five, and yesterday's win will pretty much be forgotten.
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11-27-2015, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by chicago92
Only time I worry about the RPI is when we are a bubble team and even then we can't do anything about it. You play the games one at a time and let the chips fall where they may.
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If you remove speculation, opinion and moaning from sports and "let the chips fall they may" your brain will rot!
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11-27-2015, 11:26 AM
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Just win baby! The selection committee would probably be impressed if we carried the trophy away from this tournament.
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11-27-2015, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by springborofan
I think the committee looks at how teams do in these holiday tournaments. It is probably one of the best indicators of how a team will play in the dance since the competition is good and it is on a neutral floor. If nothing else, it is part of the "eye test" that we love to moan about.
Monmouth has beaten UCLA (at Pauley Pavillion) and ND so far. They are going to win A LOT of games this year in the MAAC so their winning % will help our RPI. If we win, it will be another top 100 win at the end of the year.
I'm not discounting them either, they are hungry for another win and after beating UCLA at home and ND, I'm sure they are not scared of UD.
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Monmouth fears nobody at this point. If one thinks they're just happy to knock off Notre Dame and call it a weekend you'd only be kidding yourself. This likely will be UD's toughest test of this young season. That team is for real. I really hope UD is focused and not looking past them. They are in for a dog fight. Glad there is a huge fan base down there- we're going to need it.
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11-27-2015, 12:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Before the tournament: "If we don't beat Iowa our season is sunk, we won't get to play any decent teams and the tournament will be a waste."
After our first game, is it possible our RPI would have been better had we lost to Iowa?
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USC has turned out to be a top 50 team and Monmouth a top 100 team = different calculus and surprising.. If Monmouth was 150 and USC 125 as expected, lose to Iowa and likely play 150 Monmouth and 125 USC or 125 Alabama. W State losing made it almost guaranteed Dayton got 2 top 50 games = key for NCAA.
Last year, UD was 1-3 versus top 50 and reason we were last in. If W&M stays top 50 (they likely will be 40-60), UD has already doubled its top 50 wins and will have another top 50 opportunity versus USC (40-60 range) or Xavier. All about top 50 wins.
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11-27-2015, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
I'm not sure if that only uses current RPI or projects full season RPI. But it really seems like a loss to Iowa, and then wins against ND and WS would be better than a potential tournament sweep of Iowa, Monmouth, USC.
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http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html projects full season and can use wizard to put in simalulations as 1903 Flyer did. Better RPI with sweep and 2 top 50 wins versus lose to Iowa and win other two would be worse RPI and two top 50 wins = sweep is better for tourney resume.
BTW, zero impact if win trophy here. NCAA Commitee just looks at neutral wins as great wins. Beating Monmouth & USC/ Xavier really tough. Less than 50% of sweeping final 2.
Last edited by ruechalgrin; 11-27-2015 at 12:14 PM..
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11-27-2015, 12:24 PM
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The possibility that ND and/or WS are overrated based on past seasons exists. They might just be what they appear to be in Orlando. And USC and/or Monmouth might prove to be what they appear to be in Orlando.
So no matter what the circumstances, we're certainly better off winning every game we can and yes, I know that's not the question. We've seen this in the past. Alabama for instance. 3 seasons ago we went into 'bama and took them down when they were rated. Turned out that they were overrated and that win wasn't quite as impressive as it appeared.
ND gets overrated every season, and sometimes carries that mask into the big dance before getting exposed. This season, the exposure might be coming earlier.
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11-27-2015, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
But it really seems like a loss to Iowa, and then wins against ND and WS would be better than a potential tournament sweep of Iowa, Monmouth, USC.
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Gazoo, with all due respect, this thread is pointless speculation. What if UD had lost to Iowa, ND, and Alabama? Or beat ND but lost to WS? Perhaps we should have lost to Iowa on purpose so we could have had the chance to beat other teams? If Xavier loses to USC today, perhaps we should lose to Monmouth so we can play Xavier for a better RPI win?
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11-27-2015, 02:31 PM
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The last time I checked, if a team goes 33-0 their RPI does not matter come selection Sunday.
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11-27-2015, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill202
...and to think that either Iowa or Notre Dame will play in the 7 vs 8 game on Sunday!
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And they will play the Shockers.
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11-27-2015, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
And they will play the Shockers.
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Just living up to their name, I guess...
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11-27-2015, 05:28 PM
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An advantage to winning game 1 is that all three games are now on ESPN2
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11-27-2015, 05:48 PM
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One game at a time, I know, but I'm so looking forward to a Notre Dame vs. Wichita last place game and our beloved Flyers crushing x on Sunday.
Last edited by 1903 Flyer; 11-28-2015 at 01:05 PM..
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11-28-2015, 07:49 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
Gazoo, with all due respect, this thread is pointless speculation.
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Is there someone here who is treating this as a lecture by a physicist on parallel universes?
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