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  #1  
Old 11-27-2018, 03:02 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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Way too early 2019 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Never too early to think about March.

Probabilities Through games of 11/26:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
St Louis            38.39%  22.21%  14.16%   9.23%   6.25%   3.91%   2.44%   1.56%   0.94%   0.48%   0.28%   0.11%   0.04%   0.01%        2.65
VA Commonwealth     23.27%  22.14%  16.92%  12.36%   8.93%   6.00%   4.12%   2.74%   1.65%   0.94%   0.54%   0.27%   0.10%   0.03%        3.34
Dayton              16.33%  17.38%  16.29%  13.77%  11.01%   8.45%   6.18%   4.15%   2.83%   1.77%   1.03%   0.51%   0.24%   0.07%        4.02
Davidson             6.58%  10.26%  12.28%  13.10%  12.54%  11.32%   9.79%   7.82%   6.04%   4.40%   2.96%   1.72%   0.88%   0.31%        5.45
St Joseph's PA       6.07%   9.61%  12.04%  13.54%  13.15%  12.02%   9.86%   8.00%   6.02%   4.13%   2.72%   1.72%   0.85%   0.29%        5.48
Massachusetts        4.33%   7.91%  10.74%  12.27%  12.81%  12.46%  10.93%   8.99%   7.13%   5.27%   3.53%   2.13%   1.16%   0.37%        5.90
Rhode Island         2.55%   4.62%   6.80%   8.57%  10.43%  11.41%  11.76%  11.24%  10.05%   8.32%   6.41%   4.32%   2.54%   0.99%        7.02
Duquesne             1.07%   2.21%   3.62%   5.35%   6.88%   8.66%  10.00%  11.02%  11.48%  11.20%  10.13%   8.39%   6.28%   3.71%        8.43
George Mason         0.54%   1.44%   2.85%   4.39%   6.42%   8.61%  10.54%  12.00%  12.48%  11.99%  10.79%   8.62%   6.16%   3.18%        8.62
St Bonaventure       0.66%   1.50%   2.59%   3.91%   5.53%   7.13%   8.89%  10.41%  11.62%  12.13%  11.75%  10.29%   8.22%   5.38%        9.04
Richmond             0.09%   0.35%   0.76%   1.47%   2.61%   4.18%   6.18%   8.44%  10.60%  12.71%  14.42%  14.70%  13.74%   9.77%       10.31
La Salle             0.08%   0.28%   0.67%   1.36%   2.14%   3.53%   5.21%   7.12%   9.37%  11.80%  14.31%  16.01%  15.35%  12.76%       10.64
G Washington         0.02%   0.07%   0.18%   0.42%   0.75%   1.36%   2.38%   3.81%   5.56%   8.23%  11.50%  16.14%  21.68%  27.89%       11.86
Fordham              0.01%   0.05%   0.12%   0.27%   0.55%   0.95%   1.72%   2.71%   4.23%   6.65%   9.64%  15.08%  22.78%  35.24%       12.25
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  #2  
Old 12-04-2018, 11:38 AM
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Probabilities Through games of 12/2:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
St Louis            37.56%  25.22%  15.28%   9.15%   5.71%   3.31%   1.80%   1.01%   0.54%   0.25%   0.12%   0.05%   0.02%   0.00%        2.49
VA Commonwealth     33.95%  26.64%  16.74%   9.97%   5.86%   3.18%   1.78%   0.98%   0.50%   0.23%   0.12%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%        2.55
Dayton              13.41%  17.39%  18.41%  16.08%  12.28%   8.62%   5.73%   3.63%   2.10%   1.22%   0.63%   0.34%   0.12%   0.04%        3.94
Davidson             6.15%  10.66%  14.46%  15.29%  14.22%  11.81%   9.22%   6.72%   4.80%   3.05%   1.89%   1.10%   0.50%   0.14%        5.08
Massachusetts        3.23%   6.88%  11.39%  14.19%  14.81%  13.85%  11.14%   8.58%   6.30%   4.21%   2.79%   1.59%   0.77%   0.26%        5.74
St Joseph's PA       3.27%   6.95%  11.07%  13.91%  15.03%  14.04%  11.46%   8.51%   6.14%   4.23%   2.81%   1.58%   0.77%   0.22%        5.74
Rhode Island         1.51%   3.42%   5.79%   8.54%  10.82%  12.36%  13.20%  12.45%  10.33%   8.36%   6.12%   4.15%   2.19%   0.79%        7.13
St Bonaventure       0.38%   1.02%   2.17%   3.73%   5.53%   7.64%   9.83%  11.31%  12.25%  12.04%  11.37%   9.96%   7.71%   5.05%        9.03
Duquesne             0.32%   0.93%   2.04%   3.51%   5.29%   7.49%   9.55%  11.08%  11.80%  12.33%  11.77%  10.48%   8.25%   5.17%        9.14
Richmond             0.08%   0.32%   0.86%   1.85%   3.39%   5.66%   8.18%  10.58%  12.49%  13.49%  13.53%  12.61%  10.39%   6.58%        9.78
George Mason         0.08%   0.26%   0.80%   1.66%   3.09%   5.14%   7.72%  10.10%  12.22%  13.54%  14.28%  13.40%  10.84%   6.87%        9.91
La Salle             0.06%   0.25%   0.80%   1.68%   2.99%   4.91%   6.93%   9.02%  11.18%  12.87%  14.20%  14.35%  12.52%   8.25%       10.11
Fordham              0.01%   0.04%   0.15%   0.32%   0.69%   1.32%   2.18%   3.63%   5.56%   7.95%  11.25%  16.04%  23.54%  27.34%       11.92
G Washington         0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.13%   0.31%   0.71%   1.28%   2.40%   3.80%   6.23%   9.13%  14.31%  22.38%  39.28%       12.44
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  #3  
Old 12-05-2018, 01:35 PM
Buster Goode Buster Goode is offline
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You can pencil LaSalle in for 100% to be the 14th seed.
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  #4  
Old 12-05-2018, 01:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
You can pencil LaSalle in for 100% to be the 14th seed.
I think they're currently 0-9. Pity the fools who give them their 1st win this year (assuming they win a game this year).
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  #5  
Old 12-05-2018, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Buster Goode View Post
You can pencil LaSalle in for 100% to be the 14th seed.
I don't know. LaSalle was within 1 of Villanova with 5+ minutes left playing with out 3 players including their star Pookie Powell. Final was 85-78.

Last edited by Lifelong Flyer Fan; 12-05-2018 at 03:49 PM..
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  #6  
Old 01-02-2019, 04:33 PM
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Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     36.29%  23.47%  15.74%  10.45%   6.74%   3.90%   1.97%   0.88%   0.36%   0.14%   0.06%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%        2.56
Davidson            24.46%  21.22%  17.12%  13.47%   9.86%   6.76%   3.64%   1.90%   0.87%   0.44%   0.18%   0.06%   0.02%   0.00%        3.18
Dayton              12.30%  15.28%  16.68%  16.03%  14.31%  10.93%   6.80%   3.85%   2.02%   1.02%   0.47%   0.23%   0.08%   0.01%        4.10
Rhode Island         9.82%  12.79%  14.63%  15.80%  15.27%  13.17%   8.54%   4.81%   2.78%   1.34%   0.68%   0.26%   0.10%   0.03%        4.47
St Louis             9.00%  13.12%  15.20%  16.01%  15.14%  12.66%   8.40%   5.02%   2.78%   1.48%   0.71%   0.32%   0.13%   0.03%        4.49
St Joseph's PA       7.16%  11.21%  14.20%  15.93%  16.30%  14.18%   9.13%   5.60%   3.17%   1.72%   0.84%   0.37%   0.15%   0.03%        4.73
Massachusetts        0.30%   0.82%   1.78%   3.27%   5.72%   8.93%  13.09%  15.16%  14.65%  12.62%   9.98%   7.12%   4.42%   2.17%        8.56
George Mason         0.20%   0.62%   1.40%   2.69%   5.02%   8.70%  13.90%  15.59%  15.04%  13.17%  10.31%   7.27%   4.16%   1.93%        8.65
St Bonaventure       0.25%   0.70%   1.49%   2.78%   4.60%   7.66%  11.66%  13.79%  14.29%  13.51%  11.62%   8.88%   5.72%   3.05%        8.93
Duquesne             0.20%   0.61%   1.32%   2.51%   4.55%   7.43%  10.80%  13.35%  14.29%  13.81%  11.79%   9.44%   6.53%   3.37%        9.07
Richmond             0.02%   0.11%   0.29%   0.65%   1.44%   3.09%   6.24%   9.49%  12.50%  14.84%  16.05%  14.80%  12.07%   8.43%       10.39
Fordham              0.01%   0.04%   0.08%   0.25%   0.59%   1.35%   2.82%   4.86%   7.44%  10.74%  14.53%  18.48%  20.36%  18.46%       11.50
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.14%   0.37%   0.92%   2.10%   3.83%   6.39%   9.47%  13.68%  18.45%  23.30%  21.28%       11.78
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.11%   0.33%   0.94%   1.89%   3.42%   5.70%   9.09%  14.30%  22.96%  41.22%       12.59
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  #7  
Old 01-02-2019, 06:39 PM
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VCU really 3 times more likely than us to win the A-10? What the heck am I missing?
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Old 01-02-2019, 07:29 PM
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VCU, Davidson, and St Louis all have materially eaiser A-10 schedules than Dayton this year. Generally great Dayton has the toughest A-10 schedule as the Flyers are shooting for an at-large. This year it massively hurts UD as the only way to a NCAA bid is A-10 tourney.

Objectively, VCU #1, Dayton #2, St Louis #3, and Davidson #4 with St Joes and Rhody #5/#6. But schedule is not balanced.
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  #9  
Old 01-02-2019, 07:41 PM
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SLU has taken a hit with Gordon transferring.
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:03 PM
SLUFLYER SLUFLYER is offline
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Originally Posted by Sea Bass View Post
SLU has taken a hit with Gordon transferring.
Somewhat. He's got some talent and shown some promise, but their team chemistry will probably improve. He was not a hard worker or a great teammate. There was baggage with him coming out of high school (and in high school), it's not a huge surprise when those around program think about it. It shortens their big man rotation, so I think we will have a leg up on the interior with them.

They're also not a very good shooting team - from behind the arc and particularly at foul line.

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 01-02-2019 at 08:46 PM..
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Old 01-02-2019, 08:21 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Probabilities Through games of 1/1:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     36.29%  23.47%  15.74%  10.45%   6.74%   3.90%   1.97%   0.88%   0.36%   0.14%   0.06%   0.02%   0.01%   0.00%        2.56
Davidson            24.46%  21.22%  17.12%  13.47%   9.86%   6.76%   3.64%   1.90%   0.87%   0.44%   0.18%   0.06%   0.02%   0.00%        3.18
Dayton              12.30%  15.28%  16.68%  16.03%  14.31%  10.93%   6.80%   3.85%   2.02%   1.02%   0.47%   0.23%   0.08%   0.01%        4.10
Rhode Island         9.82%  12.79%  14.63%  15.80%  15.27%  13.17%   8.54%   4.81%   2.78%   1.34%   0.68%   0.26%   0.10%   0.03%        4.47
St Louis             9.00%  13.12%  15.20%  16.01%  15.14%  12.66%   8.40%   5.02%   2.78%   1.48%   0.71%   0.32%   0.13%   0.03%        4.49
St Joseph's PA       7.16%  11.21%  14.20%  15.93%  16.30%  14.18%   9.13%   5.60%   3.17%   1.72%   0.84%   0.37%   0.15%   0.03%        4.73
Massachusetts        0.30%   0.82%   1.78%   3.27%   5.72%   8.93%  13.09%  15.16%  14.65%  12.62%   9.98%   7.12%   4.42%   2.17%        8.56
George Mason         0.20%   0.62%   1.40%   2.69%   5.02%   8.70%  13.90%  15.59%  15.04%  13.17%  10.31%   7.27%   4.16%   1.93%        8.65
St Bonaventure       0.25%   0.70%   1.49%   2.78%   4.60%   7.66%  11.66%  13.79%  14.29%  13.51%  11.62%   8.88%   5.72%   3.05%        8.93
Duquesne             0.20%   0.61%   1.32%   2.51%   4.55%   7.43%  10.80%  13.35%  14.29%  13.81%  11.79%   9.44%   6.53%   3.37%        9.07
Richmond             0.02%   0.11%   0.29%   0.65%   1.44%   3.09%   6.24%   9.49%  12.50%  14.84%  16.05%  14.80%  12.07%   8.43%       10.39
Fordham              0.01%   0.04%   0.08%   0.25%   0.59%   1.35%   2.82%   4.86%   7.44%  10.74%  14.53%  18.48%  20.36%  18.46%       11.50
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.06%   0.14%   0.37%   0.92%   2.10%   3.83%   6.39%   9.47%  13.68%  18.45%  23.30%  21.28%       11.78
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.01%   0.03%   0.11%   0.33%   0.94%   1.89%   3.42%   5.70%   9.09%  14.30%  22.96%  41.22%       12.59
It just hit me- 8, yes 8, teams in the A-10 have less than a 1% chance of winning the conference. That is so sad.
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  #12  
Old 01-03-2019, 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I think they're currently 0-9. Pity the fools who give them their 1st win this year (assuming they win a game this year).
It will be a serious pity if that someone is US!
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Old 01-06-2019, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
I think they're currently 0-9. Pity the fools who give them their 1st win this year (assuming they win a game this year).
Originally Posted by NJFlyr71 View Post
It will be a serious pity if that someone is US!
LaSalle opens A-10 play 1-0 with a win at UMass.

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Old 01-07-2019, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerBob View Post
It just hit me- 8, yes 8, teams in the A-10 have less than a 1% chance of winning the conference. That is so sad.
When I update these tomorrow, it may be 9 teams with less than a 1% chance with St. Joe's losing 2 games which they had an 85+% probability of winning.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:43 AM
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Sooner than later teams are going to pack it in and make the Flyers shoot from deep. 30% or whatever we're hitting right now isn't going to get it done.
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Canonball View Post
Sooner than later teams are going to pack it in and make the Flyers shoot from deep. 30% or whatever we're hitting right now isn't going to get it done.
We'll see some zone.

SLU is having the same problem - they don't shoot the ball well, very inconsistent. They'll see some zone for sure.

SLU doesn't really play any zone defense, as their man-to-man defense is important for them to create some offense (as a poor shooting team themselves).

Point being, we should have a decent interior advantage with SLU, a team that will have to buck one of their core principles (man-to-man) if they want to pack it in against us.
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Canonball View Post
Sooner than later teams are going to pack it in and make the Flyers shoot from deep. 30% or whatever we're hitting right now isn't going to get it done.
It is inevitable that continued 15% 3pt shooting will sink us if we keep obsessing over them--like 3/20 ! But if you would have told me that we would miss that many and still win by 24 I would say you are nuts.

If memory doesn't fail me again, I think we beat Auburn in a holiday tournament in Chicago and went something like 0-24 from 3pt. Who does that? But it shows that you can actually do enough of the other equally important things and overcome atrocious 3pt shooting. One thing you do is stop shooting so many, be patient, and see if you might find an open big man or two who shoots 70% ! And you keep finding them until the opponent stops you.

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Old 01-07-2019, 10:51 AM
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That was Auburn who they beat going 0-22 or whatever, I think Marquette was the next night, when Flight Wright posterized their Center.
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Old 01-07-2019, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
LaSalle opens A-10 play 1-0 with a win at UMass.

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Old 01-07-2019, 11:04 AM
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I can't believe that even this far into the season we are shooting so poorly with the 3 ball.

I would have thought that someone out of the group would break out from a 'slump' and score big. It hasn't been Mikesell, Davis, Landers, nobody!

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Old 01-07-2019, 11:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
That was Auburn who they beat going 0-22 or whatever, I think Marquette was the next night, when Flight Wright posterized their Center.
Yes, Auburn. 0-24 actually. But we countered with 22 offensive rebounds that helped save our bacon.
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Old 01-07-2019, 01:31 PM
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3 point % as of 1/4/19

One team is ranked 263rd in the country, going 80/249 (32.1%).
One team is ranked 256th in the country, going 96/296 (32.4%).

One of those teams is currently #1 in the AP Poll, the other team is Dayton.
If only we had made one more three!

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