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  #1  
Old 01-07-2019, 12:41 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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2019 A-10 Tournament Seeding Probabilities

Now that the A-10 season has started, these are no longer way too early. Will update every Monday until about the midpoint of the conference schedule, then will update the day after game days.

Probabilities Through games of 1/6:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth     50.00%  23.97%  13.08%   6.99%   3.53%   1.54%   0.58%   0.21%   0.07%   0.02%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.99
Davidson            21.66%  24.46%  20.55%  14.57%   9.25%   5.33%   2.30%   1.03%   0.49%   0.20%   0.10%   0.06%   0.01%   0.00%        3.01
St Louis            13.83%  22.76%  21.94%  16.95%  11.34%   6.58%   3.42%   1.62%   0.82%   0.43%   0.18%   0.09%   0.04%   0.01%        3.41
Dayton               8.55%  14.43%  18.18%  19.51%  15.52%  10.70%   6.17%   3.43%   1.84%   0.90%   0.44%   0.22%   0.09%   0.02%        4.17
George Mason         2.78%   6.65%  11.28%  16.32%  20.32%  17.90%  10.75%   6.26%   3.51%   2.11%   1.19%   0.63%   0.24%   0.08%        5.27
Rhode Island         2.89%   6.33%  10.65%  15.29%  18.25%  16.94%  11.64%   7.42%   4.50%   2.75%   1.65%   0.99%   0.52%   0.18%        5.50
Duquesne             0.12%   0.44%   1.29%   3.00%   5.76%   9.56%  13.41%  13.86%  12.70%  11.13%   9.75%   8.12%   6.39%   4.48%        8.84
St Joseph's PA       0.06%   0.35%   0.90%   2.11%   4.14%   7.85%  12.15%  13.70%  13.49%  12.63%  11.04%   9.16%   7.38%   5.05%        9.20
St Bonaventure       0.07%   0.28%   0.76%   1.70%   3.38%   6.07%   9.38%  11.26%  12.55%  12.42%  12.35%  11.67%  10.14%   7.96%        9.75
G Washington         0.02%   0.14%   0.53%   1.28%   2.88%   5.69%   9.08%  11.30%  12.64%  12.94%  12.61%  11.89%  10.60%   8.42%        9.89
La Salle             0.01%   0.06%   0.26%   0.74%   1.83%   3.88%   6.83%   9.38%  11.25%  12.76%  13.42%  13.77%  13.82%  12.00%       10.48
Massachusetts        0.02%   0.09%   0.38%   0.94%   2.09%   4.02%   6.49%   8.74%  10.61%  12.08%  13.45%  14.38%  14.30%  12.40%       10.51
Richmond             0.01%   0.04%   0.16%   0.43%   1.25%   2.79%   5.23%   7.69%   9.63%  11.49%  13.24%  14.83%  16.79%  16.42%       10.97
Fordham              0.00%   0.01%   0.05%   0.17%   0.45%   1.14%   2.58%   4.10%   5.89%   8.16%  10.57%  14.21%  19.70%  32.99%       12.00
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  #2  
Old 01-07-2019, 01:07 PM
superfan99 superfan99 is offline
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LIBob... What are these numbers based on? I'm not being critical, I like these posts, just wondering what the basis is, as only 1 A10 game has been played and VCU is a 50% chance of first and Fordham has a 0% chance at first.


Actually I agree with the Fordham percentage (pencil that in for the next 50 years too)
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Old 01-07-2019, 02:36 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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They are based upon the Massey Ratings game predictions. Simulate 100,000 seasons using the win percentages of each unplayed game. I was going to switch to barttorvik.com, but the win percentages are very similar and barttorvik has the home and away teams switched on one of the A10 games.
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Old Yesterday, 02:33 PM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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Probabilities Through games of 1/13:

Code:

Team                  1st     2nd     3rd     4th     5th     6th     7th     8th     9th    10th    11th    12th    13th    14th Average Seed
Davidson            50.64%  24.57%  14.20%   6.94%   2.49%   0.84%   0.22%   0.06%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        1.90
VA Commonwealth     17.21%  28.66%  24.04%  16.26%   8.64%   3.48%   1.23%   0.35%   0.10%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%        2.88
St Louis            15.50%  19.25%  22.50%  21.07%  13.28%   5.20%   2.09%   0.71%   0.26%   0.08%   0.04%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        3.27
Dayton              14.08%  19.19%  21.28%  21.15%  13.77%   6.40%   2.66%   1.01%   0.31%   0.12%   0.03%   0.01%   0.00%   0.00%        3.39
George Mason         2.07%   6.45%  13.21%  22.45%  31.67%  13.75%   5.93%   2.54%   1.14%   0.49%   0.20%   0.08%   0.04%   0.00%        4.66
Rhode Island         0.32%   1.03%   2.26%   5.07%  11.10%  25.28%  20.76%  14.23%   8.74%   5.34%   3.12%   1.68%   0.79%   0.28%        6.97
Duquesne             0.07%   0.40%   1.19%   3.11%   7.66%  16.51%  19.07%  17.19%  12.89%   9.36%   6.07%   3.72%   1.93%   0.85%        7.83
St Bonaventure       0.11%   0.41%   1.08%   2.92%   6.57%  13.61%  18.07%  17.04%  13.94%  10.35%   7.26%   4.66%   2.81%   1.19%        8.11
Massachusetts        0.00%   0.03%   0.12%   0.45%   2.01%   5.28%   8.99%  12.00%  14.13%  14.76%  13.69%  12.21%   9.99%   6.34%        9.93
La Salle             0.00%   0.01%   0.07%   0.26%   1.26%   4.07%   7.67%  11.45%  13.66%  14.39%  14.41%  13.50%  11.39%   7.87%       10.23
Richmond             0.00%   0.01%   0.04%   0.21%   0.94%   2.78%   6.31%  10.23%  13.39%  15.40%  16.08%  14.72%  12.00%   7.90%       10.43
St Joseph's PA       0.00%   0.01%   0.02%   0.08%   0.35%   1.73%   4.03%   7.16%  10.85%  13.33%  15.06%  16.05%  16.70%  14.63%       11.09
G Washington         0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.02%   0.16%   0.61%   1.78%   3.39%   5.72%   8.74%  12.79%  17.58%  22.52%  26.70%       12.01
Fordham              0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.03%   0.10%   0.45%   1.20%   2.65%   4.85%   7.61%  11.24%  15.79%  21.83%  34.24%       12.29
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  #5  
Old Yesterday, 04:47 PM
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Next two games on the road are big ones! Intended or otherwise I think the scheduling to close out OC play was advantageous for the Flyers. Needed to regain some confidence. Watched Tulsa take UC to the brink to only give it away at the end. I think that loss will be ok actually. Getting an early leg up on VCU would be handy later on in conference play!
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Old Yesterday, 04:56 PM
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We have to make hay while the sun shines. 6 game stretch coming up starting Feb. 2 - @SLU, @URI, VCU, @Davidson, SLU, @UMASS
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