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01-15-2019, 02:19 PM
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Bracketology
ESPN has us as a 12 seed as of today. Also has VCU in the "next four out". Of course, tomorrow night will have a lot to say about all of that.
Along the same lines, ESPN has Dayton as one of their Giant Killers to watch for the tourney. Main reason they like us has to do with our efficiency in the paint and the resulting high FG%.
It's early, but either way I'm happy there is at least some buzz around this team. They are exceeding my expectations coming into the year. Should be a very interesting couple of months!
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01-15-2019, 02:35 PM
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CBS/Jerry Palm posted their Bracketology an hour ago and St. Louis is the sole A10 team included.
I like ESPN's better...
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01-15-2019, 02:35 PM
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Lunardi must be giving the auto bid to the team with the highest BPI - UD at 64.
VCU is 66, Davidson is 93 and SLU is 109.
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01-15-2019, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
Lunardi must be giving the auto bid to the team with the highest BPI - UD at 64.
VCU is 66, Davidson is 93 and SLU is 109.
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Must be. I can't figure out who's using what metrics. Nor does it really matter, I guess. UD won't get serious consideration for an at-large unless we go ~15-3 in A10 play. We play 5 games against teams that could/should provide a quality win (2 vs SLU, 2 vs VCU, 1 vs Davidson). 3 of those 5 games are on the road. We'll probably need to snag 3 of those 5 games and lay just one egg (presumably somewhere else on the road) to warrant reasonable consideration.
I do like our chances to compete if we were to get to the NCAA's. We've demonstrated the ability to play with the best, just need to get there. Our margin for error for getting there is very thin over the next 15 games. Otherwise, win 3 in a row in March.
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01-15-2019, 03:02 PM
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General
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To have hope of the NCAA at this point in the season is at worst "on schedule" for the program after Archie left. Picking up an unheralded PG at the last minute and the defections when AG came, I'll take it.
If we didn't have a pipeline for next year it would be different, but I'd call it solidly on schedule. We're 1 player (like a Cooke or Siebert) away from "expecting" to be in the NCAA tournament this year. We never got that player, so the team is the team, but they aren't bad. Next year I think we have that team.
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01-15-2019, 03:15 PM
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I thought that this NIT bracketology was interesting. UD a 3 seed potentially hosting 6 seed Xavier in the first round, lol.
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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01-15-2019, 03:43 PM
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I think we're ahead of schedule as a program. After the mess/bad attitudes/weak players AG inherited I don't believe too many people thought we could make the NCAA this season, or even have much of a chance. Considering where we stand right now, I think we are ahead of schedule. Most (including me) thought we would be back to NCAA caliber next season. AG had to clean house and add good players, which he did, but most of them are sitting out this season. I would not be terribly disappointed with a home NIT game this year and the NCAA next season. I think that is where most people thought we would be. Some didn't think we would even make the NIT this year.
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01-15-2019, 04:39 PM
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I admit to just hoping for solid improvement over last year with no real guess as to how that might play out. I'm pleased with where we are, especially after that brutal start against ranked teams.
But a win at VCU would really validate our bracketology projections. So far in the A10 we have beaten 3 bottom feeders. Tomorrow's away game feels like a date with Cintas. Need to show up big.
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01-16-2019, 12:09 AM
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Totally agree, Coach is doing an excellent job. The only thing I have questioned this year, is the original thought of red shirting FRANKIE. But Anthony Grant is a hell of a man, and becoming one fine head basketball coach. I was in favor of his hire; and I firmly believe amazing things are going to be accomplished under his direction.
He really didn't need this job; so I want to say thank you Coach Grant for coming home to lead the program. I strongly support you. Furthermore, the UD administration deserves credit for having the wisdom and strength to hire Grant. As they could have easily said no thank you, due to his time at Alabama, but were wise enough to see the potential upside of bringing a popular former player home to lead the program.
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01-16-2019, 12:33 AM
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And then there were 2. Davidson loses to St Joe. SLU and Dayton only teams unbeaten in conference.
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01-16-2019, 03:06 PM
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I think VCU, SLU, and Davidson have a chance for at-large bids, we still have some work to do IMO...really miss www.rpiforecast.com, which made analyzing all of these numbers SO much easier.
RPI/SOS
VCU 31, 20
Davidson 41, 51
SLU 56, 144
Dayton 73, 62
http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_atl10_Men.html
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01-16-2019, 03:31 PM
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Keep in mind the Selection Committee will not use RPI anymore, but NET:
VCU: 55
Davidson: 75
SLU: 67
UD: 73
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings
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01-17-2019, 09:16 AM
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Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.
I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.
I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
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01-17-2019, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.
I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.
I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
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I think whether it is an improvement will depend on what is your perspective.
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02-12-2019, 04:41 PM
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Show me the history!
Originally Posted by ud2
Yes, but the NET ranking is just about a complete unknown at this time, there has been very little explanation of the formula used to manufacture it.
I would like to have a baseline, whether it be rpi, bpi, kenpom, kpi, or whatever, to compare the NET too.
I have a feeling that the NET is not going to be an improvement over the old method that the selection committee used.
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What I really want to see is how it would look if data from last season were input into the NET calculation.
How different would have the teams in the field and seeding have been?
To my knowledge, it's never been published.
Until something like that is done, I don't know how anyone can really predict anything outside of the very top teams and the likely conference tournament champions.
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01-16-2019, 03:36 PM
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Right, but for sure they will check their work the next few years against the RPI. So I wouldn't totally discount it just yet.
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01-17-2019, 11:26 AM
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It will create the same disputes and arguments as the RPI. Because at the end of the day, there will always be teams/schools and conferences, and pundits, fans and talking heads, who say this team or conference got jolted.
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02-12-2019, 04:34 PM
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Updated 2 days ago...4 seed NIT...BG and USF also a 4...would be a lot of fun to play them in a 4 vs. 5 game.
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
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02-12-2019, 07:35 PM
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How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
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02-12-2019, 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
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you're talking 4 seed in NCAA! What are you smoking. That would take perfect end of season to get close to that.
In reality , i think we lose 1 maybe two more in the regular.
And end up in the Finals of the A10. We could be a bubble team or a very high 13 or 14 seed at best.
Unless we win the A10. I'm happy to talk positively about where we are going, but I like to keeps it real too .
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02-12-2019, 10:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyer 86
you're talking 4 seed in NCAA! What are you smoking. That would take perfect end of season to get close to that.
In reality , i think we lose 1 maybe two more in the regular.
And end up in the Finals of the A10. We could be a bubble team or a very high 13 or 14 seed at best.
Unless we win the A10. I'm happy to talk positively about where we are going, but I like to keeps it real too .
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I guess you didn't read the post. It's talking about a 4 seed in the NIT.
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02-12-2019, 11:04 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
How about #4 seed Dayton vs #5 seed Providence! And Indiana Last Four In the NCAA???
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Only at Indiana can you be 13-11, lose 9 of the last 10 games including 4 at home and still be NCAA worthy. How much good will can one program earn before its revoked? Apparently there is no bottom. At Dayton, you could win 9 out of the last 10, lose at Fordham, and your dreams are shot -- because Fordham.
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02-13-2019, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Chris R
Only at Indiana can you be 13-11, lose 9 of the last 10 games including 4 at home and still be NCAA worthy. How much good will can one program earn before its revoked? Apparently there is no bottom. At Dayton, you could win 9 out of the last 10, lose at Fordham, and your dreams are shot -- because Fordham.
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And yet there's no solution. They own the game. The NCAA isn't willing to do anything about it, they'll just keep riding the golden goose of the NCAA tournament and pretend that non P5 schools have a chance every year. Meanwhile, teams that can't even muster .500 in their conference are invited, over-seeded, and significant number lose their first round game, but they passed the eye test, so it was all bueno.
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02-13-2019, 09:21 AM
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Indiana being on there is just laziness. I wouldn't read into that too much. There is no chance Indiana gets an at-large bid. Their next 5 games are brutal. It wouldn't be surprising if they lost all 5. Even that game @Illinois could be a problem for them. They can forget being .500 in the Big Ten. That ship sailed a while ago. They'd be extremely lucky to finish .500 overall.
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02-13-2019, 09:47 AM
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
And yet there's no solution. They own the game. The NCAA isn't willing to do anything about it, they'll just keep riding the golden goose of the NCAA tournament and pretend that non P5 schools have a chance every year. Meanwhile, teams that can't even muster .500 in their conference are invited, over-seeded, and significant number lose their first round game, but they passed the eye test, so it was all bueno.
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There’s no solution because the NCAA doesn’t recognize it as a problem. Isn’t Step 1 of an addiction treatment program always the recognition by the subject that he/she has a problem? The same applies here. Until the NCAA gets over its hubris regarding the P5, we’ll continue to see Round of 64 games that feature 22-13 P5 teams that finished 7th in their conference pitted against 27-4 teams who won their “unwashed heathen” conference, and when said little guy waxes the court with the P5 also-ran, the talking heads will crow about the “tremendous upset” of Football Money State U by Our Lady of Perpetual Optimism.
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02-12-2019, 09:51 PM
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#4 seed in NIT is what attachment shows ... vs Providence in NIT
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02-13-2019, 10:19 AM
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This is an ESPN Insider article but I believe most/many can read them because you have an ESPN+ account. Lunardi points out that losing is no longer what it used to be and that the P5 that get in when they really don't deserve it, end up losing in the tourney.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ets-overlooked
It will be very interesting to see how things play out with respect to the Buffalo's, Wofford's etc if they lose in their conference tourneys - good NETs but not a great resume. Will the media point out the hypocrisy if they get passed over?
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02-13-2019, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
This is an ESPN Insider article but I believe most/many can read them because you have an ESPN+ account. Lunardi points out that losing is no longer what it used to be and that the P5 that get in when they really don't deserve it, end up losing in the tourney.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...ets-overlooked
It will be very interesting to see how things play out with respect to the Buffalo's, Wofford's etc if they lose in their conference tourneys - good NETs but not a great resume. Will the media point out the hypocrisy if they get passed over?
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I've been saying for a long time now that winning and losing don't mean enough anymore. I get that not all wins or losses are the same but the object of the game is and always has been to WIN not lose by a little to a good team. Name me another major sport where win/loss record is not the determining factor. Again I get that there are more than 300 teams in DI so there needs to be some formula to determine better wins than others, but to me a loss is a loss.
As for the media there will be some that point out the hypocrisy, but not the ones who cover one of the P5 schools...
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02-13-2019, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
I've been saying for a long time now that winning and losing don't mean enough anymore. I get that not all wins or losses are the same but the object of the game is and always has been to WIN not lose by a little to a good team. Name me another major sport where win/loss record is not the determining factor. Again I get that there are more than 300 teams in DI so there needs to be some formula to determine better wins than others, but to me a loss is a loss.
As for the media there will be some that point out the hypocrisy, but not the ones who cover one of the P5 schools...
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They are rewarding winning by a lot! So playing terrible teams - at home - and winning by a ton is the way to go. NC State is the best example. They are sitting at a fricking 9 seed today and their best ACC win is Clemson. Their best non-con win was Auburn - at home.
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02-13-2019, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer
They are rewarding winning by a lot! So playing terrible teams - at home - and winning by a ton is the way to go. NC State is the best example. They are sitting at a fricking 9 seed today and their best ACC win is Clemson. Their best non-con win was Auburn - at home.
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So like I said they should have some formula to determine which wins are better than others but losses should be losses should be losses!
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02-13-2019, 10:56 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
So like I said they should have some formula to determine which wins are better than others but losses should be losses should be losses!
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RPI wasn't that bad. It just needed some tweaking. More credit for road wins in particular.
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02-13-2019, 11:17 AM
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Syracuse comes to mind because they passed the “eye test”.
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02-13-2019, 11:59 AM
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I don't get the love for efficiency ratings. I understand using them to gauge a team's improvement in certain areas. However, doesn't a coach/team play differently depending on the opponent? the score? the time? How often do you question what the player was thinking given the time/score? Sure there are questionable times when teams slow down the offense but if the goal is to win the game, should the offense get slowed up at some point? Same on D. No fouls, keep the clock running. Give up a 2 but not a 3.
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02-13-2019, 12:44 PM
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Couldn't agree with you more CE80; you are spot on!
This is exactly why I continue to believe this years field, and likely the next several fields, will be checked against the RPI. Therefore, don't totally discount RPI in the current selectin equation. In other words, assuming they perform well down the stretch, don't be surprised if VCU has their name drawn as an at-large on Selection Sunday. I'm not saying they will, but if you buy into what I theorize about above, then VCU is still in this at-large picture.
I predict the NCAA will feel dramatic heat following this years selection process. They will keep a straight face, and pretend it went according to plan, but privately they will know its a cluster frick. This current system and plan sounds akin to a very inexperienced, and shall we say "Green", and gullible silly person from the NY area. Reality notwithstanding in their world, whatsoever.
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02-13-2019, 03:09 PM
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BTC: Superb use of the Queen's English!
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02-17-2019, 11:45 PM
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Updated today...
https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
We drop to a NIT 5 seed...BG and USF drop to a NIT 7...Archie and IU drop to a NIT 5...Davidson a NIT 2...Wright State is a NIT 8, they think that the Raiders will win the HL regular season title but lose in the HLT.
Would love to play IU in a 4 vs. 5 game.
Several of the 6?, 7, and 8 seeds in the NIT are NIT auto-bids given to regular season conference champs that lose in their conference tourneys.
Last edited by ud2; 02-18-2019 at 12:09 AM..
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02-18-2019, 12:07 AM
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And I noticed Ole Miss doing quite well these days at a 7 seed, the former MTSU hc Kermit Davis has them on the up. I am not used to seeing them that far up in the pecking order.
Ole Miss NCAAT history.
Year Seed Round Opponent Results
1981 No. 10 First Round No. 7 Kansas L 66–69
1997 No. 8 First Round No. 9 Temple L 40–62
1998 No. 4 First Round No. 13 Valparaiso L 69–70
1999 No. 9 First Round No. 8 Villanova W 72-70
Second round No. 1 Michigan State L 66–74
2001 No. 3 First Round No. 14 Iona W 72-70
Second Round No. 6 Notre Dame W 59-56
Sweet Sixteen No. 2 Arizona L 56–66
2002 No. 9 First Round No. 8 UCLA L 58–80
2013 No. 12 First Round No. 5 Wisconsin W 57-46
Second Round No. 13 La Salle L 74–76
2015 No. 11 First Four No. 11 BYU W 94-90
Second Round No. 6 Xavier L 57–76
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02-18-2019, 09:00 AM
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I’m thinking if it’s a difference of one line, we will be a fifth instead of a fourth. This is for the simple fact We have the first four going on And the easiest way to keep from having Dayton play on a Thursday or Friday is to simply put us in the fifth slot where we would have an away game anyway.
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02-22-2019, 10:01 AM
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https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/
UD back up to a NIT 4 after the Davidson win...Davidson a 3...Wright State apparently now slotted to win the HLT or out completely, could go either way...USF a 6...Indiana drops out completely for now.
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02-23-2019, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
Indiana drops out completely for now.
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Indiana should not even be mentioned in the same press release as bracketology.
Forget the eye test, they don't pass the smell test...as in three day old road kill.
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02-23-2019, 03:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
I do not think the Dance Card is running this year, I checked recently, nada. Should have started weeks ago based upon past history.
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When should it have started based on future history?
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02-23-2019, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
When should it have started based on future history?
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??? I don't know, let me go get Doc Brown and his DeLorean, and I'll let you know.
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02-22-2019, 04:30 PM
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Joe Lunardi
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FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
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02-22-2019, 04:49 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Joe Lunardi
Verified account
@ESPNLunardi
25m25 minutes ago
More
FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
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With all the bubble teams tanking lately (IU, Lipscomb, Clemson, Arizona St, etc.) combined with the big W at Davidson, I guess we are actually a winning streak away from being a legitimate Last 4 IN. Incredible.
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02-22-2019, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by 116 Chambers
With all the bubble teams tanking lately (IU, Lipscomb, Clemson, Arizona St, etc.) combined with the big W at Davidson, I guess we are actually a winning streak away from being a legitimate Last 4 IN. Incredible.
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I'd really like to believe that. I may drink some of that if we can rattle off another 2 or 3 in a row COMBINED with some 10/11/12 seeds tanking a little bit.
As mentioned above or in another thread, can't recall since I've been really active in several threads the last few days, I am concerned about the fact that we really have no opportunity to pick up any Quad 1 or Quad 2 wins even if we win the next 6 in a row. Looking at the other teams Joey has us bunched with there, I can't imagine that UtahSt, SanFran, St. Mary's, Lipscomb have too many opportunities for Q1/Q2 wins, short of massive upsets of either the Zags or Nevada. Gtwon, SouthCar and Clemson will have plenty, all of which might come at the expense of other bubble teams too. Clemson has no remaining games against "bubble" teams (not counting Cuse, they're pretty safe). GTown still plays Seton Hall and South Carolina still plays Alabama.
Bubble is so fluid this time of year. Of that list of teams (last 8 out and others considered) probably only half will be in the discussion 10 days from now. Let's take care of business so we're still getting talked about, even if it's only by the pundits and talking heads.
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02-22-2019, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by OSU Flyer
Joe Lunardi
Verified account
@ESPNLunardi
25m25 minutes ago
More
FIRST FOUR OUT: Clemson, UtahSt, SanFran, StMary. NEXT FOUR OUT: Lipscomb, SoCarolina, Georgetown, Dayton. CONSIDERED: Furman, MurraySt, Davidson, Indiana, Creighton, Arkansas.
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Interesting, because his Bracketology page on ESPN has no mention of us - guessing he updated it to bump us out or put us in the 2nd four out.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
Either way - this team is fun to watch and this season has been a step forward!
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02-22-2019, 06:08 PM
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Originally Posted by MNFats
Interesting, because his Bracketology page on ESPN has no mention of us - guessing he updated it to bump us out or put us in the 2nd four out.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
Either way - this team is fun to watch and this season has been a step forward!
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I think they haven't updated the Bracketology page. Pre release on Twitter
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02-22-2019, 07:58 PM
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Almost every year, at the beginning of the season, people say the A10 is a one bid league. And almost every year, the A10 ends up with two or more bids. This year is no different. I believe the A10 will get at least two bids, and if all the stars align just so, the A10 may even get three bids.
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02-22-2019, 11:41 PM
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Originally Posted by frisco flyer
Almost every year, at the beginning of the season, people say the A10 is a one bid league. And almost every year, the A10 ends up with two or more bids. This year is no different. I believe the A10 will get at least two bids, and if all the stars align just so, the A10 may even get three bids.
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Agree two bids is a real possibility. Can’t see a path for three this year.
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02-22-2019, 09:41 PM
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To even be in consideration for an at-large this late in his second season is quite a testament to AG and staff considering the roster they inherited last season. Savor the progress...
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02-22-2019, 11:14 PM
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The A-10 has received at least three bids for 11 seasons in a row, with one year with 6, one with 5, and one with 4. The two years prior to that it received 2 bids.
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02-22-2019, 11:38 PM
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Just beat St Louis. Nothing else matters
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02-22-2019, 11:42 PM
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The max for the A10 this year is 2 bids, unfortunately. Not enough quality win opportunities the rest of the way for both UD AND Davidson to play into at large contention. And if VCU wins the tourney, it will probably just be one. I think VCU is decent shape for an at-large. Hopefully someone other wins the tourney, say the Flyers, and we end up with 2 teams.
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02-23-2019, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
To even be in consideration for an at-large this late in his second season is quite a testament to AG and staff considering the roster they inherited last season. Savor the progress...
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I’d say it’s more of a weak bubble. I thought we’d be an NIT team this year. Such a weak bubble moves some NIT teams up to ncaa.
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02-23-2019, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer
I’d say it’s more of a weak bubble. I thought we’d be an NIT team this year. Such a weak bubble moves some NIT teams up to ncaa.
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People say that every year, but I do think the Bubble is probably weak this year (see Indiana). However, that’s really irrelevant because it’s all relative. You can only play to your competition. There will not be an asterisk next to a team that makes the Tournament this year indicating that “Well, the Bubble was weak that year.” If a Bubble team sneaks in and makes a run to the Final Four, for instance, there will be no asterisk.
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02-23-2019, 12:32 PM
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I do not think the Dance Card is running this year, I checked recently, nada. Should have started weeks ago based upon past history.
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02-23-2019, 05:49 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
People say that every year, but I do think the Bubble is probably weak this year (see Indiana). However, that’s really irrelevant because it’s all relative. You can only play to your competition. There will not be an asterisk next to a team that makes the Tournament this year indicating that “Well, the Bubble was weak that year.” If a Bubble team sneaks in and makes a run to the Final Four, for instance, there will be no asterisk.
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If teams like indiana and osu are bubble teams it’s a weak bubble year. I don’t care what they said about other years.
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02-23-2019, 07:16 PM
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Originally Posted by TX Flyer
If teams like indiana and osu are bubble teams it’s a weak bubble year. I don’t care what they said about other years.
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It's completely laughable that Indiana is even in consideration for an NIT bid, let alone the NCAA. They are tied for 12th with only 14 teams in the Big10. They've lost 12 of their last 13...SERIOUSLY? ON THE BUBBLE? You have to actually BEAT teams, not just lose to a lot of good teams...unreal.
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02-23-2019, 12:17 AM
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Dayton just fell out of the bubble conversation as IU just lost another in OT to fall to 13-14 and get themselves back squarely on the bubble.
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02-23-2019, 07:36 AM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Dayton just fell out of the bubble conversation as IU just lost another in OT to fall to 13-14 and get themselves back squarely on the bubble.
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Man, when the P5 programs gain steam, they really gain steam.
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02-23-2019, 07:42 AM
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I’ll be interested to see how accurate Dance Card is this year, assuming UNF’s algorithm whizzes haven’t given up on predicting the field with the NET superseding the RPI as a primary barometer. Of course, they’ll need to adapt their formulas to account for a greater level of P5 bias. And not sure how other non-P5 conferences/teams are faring, but our early losses to Quad 1 opponents made UNF’s job a bit easier.
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02-23-2019, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
I’ll be interested to see how accurate Dance Card is this year, assuming UNF’s algorithm whizzes haven’t given up on predicting the field with the NET superseding the RPI as a primary barometer. Of course, they’ll need to adapt their formulas to account for a greater level of P5 bias. And not sure how other non-P5 conferences/teams are faring, but our early losses to Quad 1 opponents made UNF’s job a bit easier.
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They don't have to change anything. They'll still be able to measure each year how the committee places each team using the RPI and add that to the historical data pile they work with. As long as the RPI is being calculated they can still run the formula.
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02-23-2019, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
They don't have to change anything. They'll still be able to measure each year how the committee places each team using the RPI and add that to the historical data pile they work with. As long as the RPI is being calculated they can still run the formula.
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They probably do have to make some changes. Their stated purpose on their site is to predict who the committee will pick. If the committee is changing their formulas, then Dance Card will have to as well.
Or, they can stick to their formula and change their goal - it could become more of a "here's how it would have looked under the old system" for us to compare.
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02-23-2019, 11:48 AM
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I think what you're saying is that in the first few years they could be off using their standard formula IF the committee picks teams they wouldn't have based on the switch from RPI to NET (that happens regardless because they go against historical trends and Dance Card gets some wrong, but it could happen MORE).
Sure, that could happen, but over time that will correct itself as the formula takes in more data where the committee leans on the NET. They really don't have to change the formula or the use of the RPI, as they can still measure and do the formula using historical trends against the RPI.
I'm still probably not explaining this right, but someone smarter than me might.
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02-23-2019, 12:36 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
I think what you're saying is that in the first few years they could be off using their standard formula IF the committee picks teams they wouldn't have based on the switch from RPI to NET (that happens regardless because they go against historical trends and Dance Card gets some wrong, but it could happen MORE).
Sure, that could happen, but over time that will correct itself as the formula takes in more data where the committee leans on the NET. They really don't have to change the formula or the use of the RPI, as they can still measure and do the formula using historical trends against the RPI.
I'm still probably not explaining this right, but someone smarter than me might.
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You are right but typically you don’t switch cold turkey unless you have some specific metrics you can validate against (i.e more P5 at large bids)
What you more typically want to do is evaluate how the changes will affect the entire population before cutting over to it - thus testing against a smaller challenger sample set - say 10% of the entire universe.
Since you can’t do that here, what makes sense to do is pick the at large teams with the new and old methods and them look only at teams that either are in one but. It the other or teams that had significant seeding changes. In an over simplified way, what you want to ensure is that teams affected by the switch are because of flaws in RPI not in NET. Without knowing the affects, it is much harder to measure that.
That will allow better analysis of the real impact NET has on what is trying to be done with other switch. I guarantee if the new method had significantly less P5 teams in the final field this year they wouldn’t just go with it and let it correct itself over time.
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02-23-2019, 11:34 AM
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Remember DanceCard had something where they used the old RPI formula. The last couple of years DanceCard has proven to be unreliable because the selection committee's criteria has been changing.
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02-23-2019, 11:37 AM
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Unless the purpose of switching to NET is solely to ensure fewer non-p5 teams get an invite (which could be the real driving factor ), I can’t believe they won’t consider the old system when determining bids for at least this year. Not doing that would be a horrible analytical approach - to not measure the new proposed standard against the former (current standard). This is similar to champion challenger and is a great way to see the effects of proposed changes.
I used to feel UD didn’t belong in the discussion but no longer feel that way when IU (and other schools with lots of warts - OSU for example) are still in the discussion or firmly in.
Keeping IU in the discussion because IF they win out and IF they win convincingly and IF .... all the while not doing the same thing for schools like Dayton shows clearly the biases of those doing the mocks which is really a reflection of the committee biases.
There is lots of work to be done yet but a very strong finish and a key win or 2 in the tourney should get UD an invite. It’s gonna be a fun ride if these guys can finish strong !!
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02-23-2019, 12:40 PM
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Yeah, nothing below.
Started doing updates last year on February 5 per the Twitter account.
The selection committee sort of has free reign this year to do whatever they want, and they can just blame it all on the NET.
https://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
https://mobile.twitter.com/DanceCard3
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02-24-2019, 09:26 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Interestingly, the team sheets list Quad 1 and 2 teams and scores broken in halves. So, for Quad 1, on the top section that have H1-15, N1-25 and A1-40. Then on the bottom half they have H16-30, N26-50, and A41-75. Same for Quad 2. Quad 3 and 4 are not broken apart at all. I'm curious if somehow they will list top half or bottom half Quad 1/2 in some fashion to explain why a team is in or out. Otherwise, why break it out at all?
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02-24-2019, 09:39 PM
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Figgie, I feel you are on the verge of answering your own question. Here is a clue...NCAA!
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02-24-2019, 10:03 PM
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If nothing else, we are starting to get into the at-large conversation. Of course, anything less than winning out would pretty much kill that conversation.
https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/02/...on-the-bubble/
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02-25-2019, 11:23 AM
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I honestly believe this team deserves to be in the conversation, and I honestly believe our resume is not good enough when all is said and done. (But if we actually win out and then lost in the conference finals, I think we're still in.)
And really, controlling your own destiny is all you can ask for. We can't blame the schedule or anything else, we can only look back and know that we didn't win enough tough games if we end up not getting in. Just holding on against Miss State at home likely does the trick.
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02-25-2019, 11:46 AM
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I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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02-25-2019, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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Which is exactly why, if somehow, we end up matching up in the NIT, that game will be played at St. John Arena. Jean Smith isn’t stupid, and would not let his new coach who he picked off from Butler, be embarrassed in front of 7000 opposing fans at home.
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02-25-2019, 01:29 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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I feel the same regarding Butler. We beat them in a neutral court tourney. And they really are not that impressive to me at all, based on other games of theirs that I have watched...
Here is Butler:
http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSButler.htm
Here we are:
http://www.seed-madness.com/TeamStats/QTSDayton.htm
See the difference?
Quad 1: Butler 2-7, UD 2-5.
Quad 2: Butler 5-5, UD 0-3.
Combined Q1 and Q2:
Butler: 7-12, UD 2-8
Must be nice to have all those Q2 games to split and to be "on the bubble" worst case...
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02-25-2019, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-to.../bracketology/
This site thinks that OSU has a 22% chance .... sounds about right. UD is over 30%
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02-27-2019, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo
I watch every Ohio State game and they are horrible. Take them outside of the BIG and nobody would give them a 2nd thought. And they're currently a 9-seed. If we played them tomorrow at UD, we win by 9+. At the Schott, I still think we'd win. The place is a morgue and we'd pack the place.
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tOSU just kicked the crap out of a ranked Iowa team. My son went and pre-game was making fun of the '10s of fans' at the game and couldn't believe tOSU was favored. Then the game started and with freshman Justin Ahrens now starting, the team played with energy, the crowd responded and they steamrolled the Hawkeyes who had a late-game implosion that can only be described as 'legendary'.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...urses-official
"After the game, according to the Toledo Blade and Columbus Dispatch, Fran McCaffery screamed, "You cheating m-----f-----! You're a f---ing disgrace!" at official Steve McJunkins as he pursued him down a hallway in Value City Arena."
Why does this matter?? Because tOSU needed a BIG win (pun intended) against a ranked team (#22 Iowa) and got it. Add a newly ranked UC (#22/23) to their resume and I'd say they are 1 regular season win away (at NWern) from locking up an NCAAT bid.
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02-25-2019, 11:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
And really, controlling your own destiny is all you can ask for. We can't blame the schedule or anything else, we can only look back and know that we didn't win enough tough games if we end up not getting in. Just holding on against Miss State at home likely does the trick.
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Goes to the moral victory dilemma I talked about. Although at the end of those games (i.e. Virginia) etc., we 'felt' some what positive and a 'good sign', in the end I think everyone knew that a win would have counted at the end of the season much more than the instant 'moral victory' did.
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02-25-2019, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by NJFlyr71
Goes to the moral victory dilemma I talked about. Although at the end of those games (i.e. Virginia) etc., we 'felt' some what positive and a 'good sign', in the end I think everyone knew that a win would have counted at the end of the season much more than the instant 'moral victory' did.
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I hate moral victories as much as the next guy but the new NET seems like it might reward you for close losses to good teams (which I hate), or at least it seems that way for the P5 schools.
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02-26-2019, 12:36 PM
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Last 6 out from Lunardi as of yesterday...there are better places to be, but there are way, wayyyy worse places to be. While we could have viably have pulled out wins vs Miss St, Tulsa, Mason and VCU x2 to improve our position, we are pretty much where I thought our best case scenario would be at the beginning of the year. Some of that is due to a weak bubble, but whatever I'll take it. Win out or 4-1 at worst, grab two decent quality wins in the conf tourney and see what happens.
Agree we are way ahead of where we were last year and it is a fantastic sign for next year.
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02-26-2019, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Wallage
Last 6 out from Lunardi as of yesterday...there are better places to be, but there are way, wayyyy worse places to be. While we could have viably have pulled out wins vs Miss St, Tulsa, Mason and VCU x2 to improve our position, we are pretty much where I thought our best case scenario would be at the beginning of the year. Some of that is due to a weak bubble, but whatever I'll take it. Win out or 4-1 at worst, grab two decent quality wins in the conf tourney and see what happens.
Agree we are way ahead of where we were last year and it is a fantastic sign for next year.
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Yes, we are way ahead of where we were last year. AG deserves a lot of credit putting together this team in only his second year. As a reminder, in AM’s second year we just barely made the A10 tourney.
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02-26-2019, 01:27 PM
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VCU goes to the first four to me if they are not successful in at least Making the finals of the A10 tournament championship. I would like to see them make that game outside of it being at our expense of course. VCU being a 10 seed is encouraging especially since Lunardi already has the last four in as 12s.
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02-26-2019, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
VCU goes to the first four to me if they are not successful in at least Making the finals of the A10 tournament championship. I would like to see them make that game outside of it being at our expense of course. VCU being a 10 seed is encouraging especially since Lunardi already has the last four in as 12s.
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VCU is pretty solidly in the field at this point imo. I don't think they have as much to worry about as most people seem to think but I guess you never know.
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02-26-2019, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
VCU goes to the first four to me if they are not successful in at least Making the finals of the A10 tournament championship. I would like to see them make that game outside of it being at our expense of course. VCU being a 10 seed is encouraging especially since Lunardi already has the last four in as 12s.
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VCU would be 25-6 if they win out and would 100% be in (and probably don't even need that) and that's if they lose in the A10 tourney 2nd round..They have a net rating of 35 which is solidly in. They would need a 2-2 record to close out and an A10 2nd round loss to not get in..
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02-26-2019, 03:51 PM
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^ agreed... but win the next 4 and it will be fun to dream. Take down Umass for starters.
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02-27-2019, 10:43 AM
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IIRC, ESPN showed a bubble that had UD as the 3rd team in the "last 4 out" category late last night. Honestly, it doesn't feel like this team is nearly that close resume wise, but what the heck, it wasn't that long ago that UD felt way ahead resume wise yet ended up playing in the first 4; so perhaps UD is due some good karma from the NCAA.
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02-27-2019, 12:58 PM
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I simply do not understand the path for Dayton to get an at-large bid.
2-8 Quad 1/2 wins. Final 3 regular season games and quarterfinals in tourney are all downside, no upside in these games. If Dayton would be Davidson in the semis and lose to VCU in the finals, Dayton would be 3-9 in Quad 1/2 wins with wins being Butler neutral (bubble team), Davidson away, and Davidson natural. Just don't see these three wins getting Dayton in. Other teams on the bubble have chances for good wins the next couple of weeks, Dayton simply does not.
Only chance Dayton gets in is if Rhody and St. Bonnies basically win out and those wins become Quad 2 wins; Dayton destroys everyone left on the schedule bumping their efficiency up. This happens and Dayton ends up with a NET rating in the 40s and 5-9 in Quad 1/2 games and has a very small shot. But need to win the next 5 and lose in the finals, blow everyone out, Rhody/St. Bonnies need to do well, and everyone on the bubble needs to collapse. Only way Dayton gets in which is really not a legitimate path the an at-large bid.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-27-2019, 01:38 PM
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Honestly, we are worrying way too much about where we sit. We have been here in the past and thought we had a much better chance than we did only to be disappointed on Selection Sunday. We have a tendency to either over or under rate who we really are. We never know what the committee will use as their criteria until after the field is announced and then they make up something to cover their hind end. I say, just enjoy the next couple of weeks and see where things fall. It would be great to be in the field of 68 but making the tournament will not diminish what this team has done over the course of the year.
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02-27-2019, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by John C.
Honestly, we are worrying way too much about where we sit. We have been here in the past and thought we had a much better chance than we did only to be disappointed on Selection Sunday. We have a tendency to either over or under rate who we really are. We never know what the committee will use as their criteria until after the field is announced and then they make up something to cover their hind end. I say, just enjoy the next couple of weeks and see where things fall. It would be great to be in the field of 68 but making the tournament will not diminish what this team has done over the course of the year.
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The only sure ticket is as A10 tournament champions.
If not, I'll play my copy of Heidi on selection Sunday.
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02-27-2019, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin
I simply do not understand the path for Dayton to get an at-large bid.
2-8 Quad 1/2 wins. Final 3 regular season games and quarterfinals in tourney are all downside, no upside in these games. If Dayton would be Davidson in the semis and lose to VCU in the finals, Dayton would be 3-9 in Quad 1/2 wins with wins being Butler neutral (bubble team), Davidson away, and Davidson natural. Just don't see these three wins getting Dayton in. Other teams on the bubble have chances for good wins the next couple of weeks, Dayton simply does not.
Only chance Dayton gets in is if Rhody and St. Bonnies basically win out and those wins become Quad 2 wins; Dayton destroys everyone left on the schedule bumping their efficiency up. This happens and Dayton ends up with a NET rating in the 40s and 5-9 in Quad 1/2 games and has a very small shot. But need to win the next 5 and lose in the finals, blow everyone out, Rhody/St. Bonnies need to do well, and everyone on the bubble needs to collapse. Only way Dayton gets in which is really not a legitimate path the an at-large bid.
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There is another way we get in: http://udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=30358&page=3
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02-27-2019, 02:05 PM
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Wednesday and Thursday of championship week will tell us what is our realistic chance at an at large bid. Let’s assume if you are in the ACC quarterfinals, you are dancing. If Wisconsin is in the quarterfinals of the big 10 after winning on Thursday, I believe they are in. The SEC quarters will be very interesting as well. As I’ve said before, win the whole **** thing, and we have nothing to worry about! If we lose in the semis, we have nothing to worry about, because we aren’t dancing. My expectations at the beginning of the season were that we were at least in the conversation for an NCAA bid. We did that.
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02-27-2019, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Flyerferd
Wednesday and Thursday of championship week will tell us what is our realistic chance at an at large bid. Let’s assume if you are in the ACC quarterfinals, you are dancing. If Wisconsin is in the quarterfinals of the big 10 after winning on Thursday, I believe they are in. The SEC quarters will be very interesting as well. As I’ve said before, win the whole **** thing, and we have nothing to worry about! If we lose in the semis, we have nothing to worry about, because we aren’t dancing. My expectations at the beginning of the season were that we were at least in the conversation for an NCAA bid. We did that.
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I may be in the minority, but I politely disagree. We were in so many games that would have given us a Q1 win. One that we desperately need now. And we did not close.
But by playing those teams very competitively (just not winning), you could see this team could compete. VCU was picked sixth or seventh. URI graduated key players. This conference is/was open for the taking.
Look, I love the feel good posts here too. But, in my opinion, this season is a let down if we do not get in the tourney because it was right there for us.
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02-27-2019, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
I may be in the minority, but I politely disagree. We were in so many games that would have given us a Q1 win. One that we desperately need now. And we did not close.
But by playing those teams very competitively (just not winning), you could see this team could compete. VCU was picked sixth or seventh. URI graduated key players. This conference is/was open for the taking.
Look, I love the feel good posts here too. But, in my opinion, this season is a let down if we do not get in the tourney because it was right there for us.
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Seriously?? A let down? I'm not big on moral victories, very much a results oriented person. But I'm failing to see where this season could be considered a let down in any way, shape or form. Because URI lost a bunch to graduation? Or VCU's preseason projection has been exceeded? Yes, this league has been there for the taking and the wins necessary for at-large consideration were also within our grasp. But lest we remember that every night, there's another team on the floor who wants to win just as badly as we do. Who's making plays as well. Who's well coached and executing a game plan to take us out of our comfort zone(s).
SLU's season has been a let down - picked to win the conference and going to finish ~7th.
Sorry, but just because we did enough to get "that close" and didn't quite "take it" should not be considered a "let down". I'm not buying. Not that term/description under this team's makeup and performance.
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02-27-2019, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
I may be in the minority, but I politely disagree. We were in so many games that would have given us a Q1 win. One that we desperately need now. And we did not close.
But by playing those teams very competitively (just not winning), you could see this team could compete. VCU was picked sixth or seventh. URI graduated key players. This conference is/was open for the taking.
Look, I love the feel good posts here too. But, in my opinion, this season is a let down if we do not get in the tourney because it was right there for us.
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If you think this season was a letdown, go root for another team. We were 14-17 last year, brought in 7 new players, are still one of the youngest teams in the conference, and are on the verge of a 20 win season. We have 3 winnable games left and could end the regular season with a nice 6 game winning streak. That is not even mentioning losing our best defender and bench contributor in Matos and having to burn the redshirt on Frankie. If you cannot see the positives from this season, I do not know what you are watching.
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02-27-2019, 04:53 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45
If you think this season was a letdown, go root for another team. We were 14-17 last year, brought in 7 new players, are still one of the youngest teams in the conference, and are on the verge of a 20 win season. We have 3 winnable games left and could end the regular season with a nice 6 game winning streak. That is not even mentioning losing our best defender and bench contributor in Matos and having to burn the redshirt on Frankie. If you cannot see the positives from this season, I do not know what you are watching.
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I don't want to get into semantics here, and I carefully worded my post to reflect nothing negative. I was clear that we DID compete. I never said we were on the wrong track, or implied that there is not a bright future. And of course I am a fan, I want very much to see the success of this program.
Making the NCAA tourney is my measure stick here. In my opinion, based on how we played against good competition and came close, this team is good enough to get there, especially in a down year for the A10. And we are close to getting in now. But down deep, if we miss the NCAA we will be missing a great opportunity. Not that we have a team to necessarily go to the Elite Eight again, but making the tourney would such great experience for such a young team.
This was not intended to be a negative post, just my opinion. And it would be a letdown for me.
Does that clear it up?
Coffeecan (maybe I should start drinking)
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02-27-2019, 06:08 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
I don't want to get into semantics here, and I carefully worded my post to reflect nothing negative. I was clear that we DID compete. I never said we were on the wrong track, or implied that there is not a bright future. And of course I am a fan, I want very much to see the success of this program.
Making the NCAA tourney is my measure stick here. In my opinion, based on how we played against good competition and came close, this team is good enough to get there, especially in a down year for the A10. And we are close to getting in now. But down deep, if we miss the NCAA we will be missing a great opportunity. Not that we have a team to necessarily go to the Elite Eight again, but making the tourney would such great experience for such a young team.
This was not intended to be a negative post, just my opinion. And it would be a letdown for me.
Does that clear it up?
Coffeecan (maybe I should start drinking)
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This may turn out to be a coulda, shoulda, woulda year but definitely not a disappointment.
There is no reason to ever stop drinking.
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02-27-2019, 09:56 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
I may be in the minority, but . . .
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You're in the minority.
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You have got to buck up, man. You cannot drag this negative energy into the tournament!
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02-28-2019, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by UD62
Got to be 24-10 or 25-9, 34 games total.
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We're 19-9. Win out the regular season we're 22-9. First round bye in the A10 tournament. Win second, quarter, semis and we're 25-9. Lose in the finals, 25-10. Did I count the A10 tournament wrong?
Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
I don't want to get into semantics here, and I carefully worded my post to reflect nothing negative. I was clear that we DID compete. I never said we were on the wrong track, or implied that there is not a bright future. And of course I am a fan, I want very much to see the success of this program.
Making the NCAA tourney is my measure stick here. In my opinion, based on how we played against good competition and came close, this team is good enough to get there, especially in a down year for the A10. And we are close to getting in now. But down deep, if we miss the NCAA we will be missing a great opportunity. Not that we have a team to necessarily go to the Elite Eight again, but making the tourney would such great experience for such a young team.
This was not intended to be a negative post, just my opinion. And it would be a letdown for me.
Does that clear it up?
Coffeecan (maybe I should start drinking)
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I understand what you're saying, that it's disappointing to look back and say "we were this close." But you're contradicting yourself, and your position is irrational.
First you're saying "the A10 was there for the taking" but then you're talking about how close we were to beating teams in the non-con. So are you disappointed in the A10 performance or the non-con performance? Make up your mind. We DID play well enough in the A10, so far. We're in second place going into our final 3 games.
Next you're saying you're disappointed because we didn't play well enough outside the A10 before the team had gelled. This basically says you would be less disappointed (happier) if we had gotten blown out in the non-con games. At least then we're not "close". That's not a rational position to take, IMO, unless we're playing for draft picks where you want to be first or last.
What I'm saying is your disappointment is misplaced and not rational. You should be excited for how well we performed with what we have, and happy that we have been able to come as close as we have.
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