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03-12-2017, 06:16 PM
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We know session yet?
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03-12-2017, 06:19 PM
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This is last year all over again
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03-12-2017, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Not really. The committee did not put much weight on the conference tourney results as a whole. Maybe we got as high as a 6.
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Agreed. It's a "shocker" that we remained as high as a 7 though after two losses to end the season.
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03-12-2017, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Can't get cocky. We saw how that played out at GW and against Davidson.
Posted via Mobile Device
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Not cocky, just not buying the "shock" at Wichita State's seeding. They are seeded about right. Ken Pom is interesting but his numbers get screwy sometimes. Time to see how Wichita State performs against some real competition. They have zero wins over any team in the tournament.
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03-12-2017, 06:20 PM
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Should be a tough ticket in Indy with Dayton, Kentucky and Wichita St., all teams that travel very well and two that are very close.
Edit: Forgot about Louisville too.
Last edited by CT Flyer; 03-12-2017 at 06:23 PM..
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03-12-2017, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05
As pointed out on another thread, Wichita State is ranked 8th by KenPom, but is a 10 seed in a four region tournament? They got hosed and so did we. The silver lining here is that the game is in Indianapolis, so the Flyers should be well-supported. But come on.
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Parrish and Barkley said pretty much the same thing. They focused on the Shockers being underseeded as a 10, but they said it wasn't fair to the teams that have to play them. Of course, we're the first (and, hopefully, only) team on that list.
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03-12-2017, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
Not cocky, just not buying the "shock" at Wichita State's seeding. They are seeded about right. Ken Pom is interesting but his numbers get screwy sometimes. Time to see how Wichita State performs against some real competition. They have zero wins over any team in the tournament.
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How do you feel about Jeff Sagarin? He has them rated 11th nationwide.
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03-12-2017, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by TrueTeam
We know session yet?
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They've announced times for First Four already. How early are the times usually announced?
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03-12-2017, 06:26 PM
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According to KenPom and Sagarin WSU should be favored by 7. February Flyers can beat them. March Flyers will lose by double digits. Archie which team are you bringing to Indy?
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03-12-2017, 06:26 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
Parrish and Barkley said pretty much the same thing. They focused on the Shockers being underseeded as a 10, but they said it wasn't fair to the teams that have to play them. Of course, we're the first (and, hopefully, only) team on that list.
Posted via Mobile Device
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When the committee screws with seeding like this (and I do believe it's intentional), it has a significant ripple effect. They've got to do better.
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03-12-2017, 06:28 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05
How do you feel about Jeff Sagarin? He has them rated 11th nationwide.
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I take the math geek stuff with a grain of salt. Wichita State is 3-4 against the Top 100. Dayton is 4-3 against the Top 50 and 12-4 against the Top 100.
Does it mean that Dayton will beat Wich State? No. But the seeding is pretty much correct.
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03-12-2017, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84
They've announced times for First Four already. How early are the times usually announced?
Posted via Mobile Device
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Gametimes announced at 7 eastern is what I saw.
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03-12-2017, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
I take the math geek stuff with a grain of salt. Wichita State is 3-4 against the Top 100. Dayton is 4-3 against the Top 50 and 12-4 against the Top 100.
Does it mean that Dayton will beat Wich State? No. But the seeding is pretty much correct.
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No, you just prefer a less rigorous form of math geekiness as after making that statement you proceed to list your own numbers.
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03-12-2017, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05
When the committee screws with seeding like this (and I do believe it's intentional), it has a significant ripple effect. They've got to do better.
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I think that gets overlooked by too many. Similar to when UD got slotted into the First Four. Many thought that was ridiculous for Dayton, but how about Boise State? Like you said, the ripple effect can be significant.
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03-12-2017, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05
How do you feel about Jeff Sagarin? He has them rated 11th nationwide.
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I think WSU is a very good team, but don't even mathematical formulas have trouble predicting when there is no real true data to input into the formula? They have not played anybody of substance (no disrespect to Ill. St.) in almost three months. How can even mathematical formulas predict with a lack of quality data?
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03-12-2017, 06:36 PM
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Interesting what commentators said about Illinois State, which could apply to Wichita State. Something to the effect that Missouri Valley Conference teams need to have a stronger OOC schedule to impress the selection committee.
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03-12-2017, 06:37 PM
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Dance card 100%
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03-12-2017, 06:38 PM
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I don't think we complain about this at all. Wichita St waas flawed all season and the committee did not find a reason to knock us down because of those 2 losses. In this case the committee did what we all would hope they would do and that's look at the entire resume. Let's get them and then kentucky! Woohoo!!!
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03-12-2017, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by ClevelandFlyer05
No, you just prefer a less rigorous form of math geekiness as after making that statement you proceed to list your own numbers.
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Ok, fair point. How about this math-free comparison:
Dayton has 6 wins over teams in the NCAA Tournament and Wichita State has zero.
Perhaps Wich State should have accepted Dayton's offer to schedule in the regular season. LOL
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03-12-2017, 06:43 PM
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Let's just beat them and end any speculation! Also, for anyone who wanted us to play WSU, you get your wish (by initials at least)
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03-12-2017, 06:55 PM
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I bet Ed Cooley is really looking forward to playing in Dayton. Siiigggghhhhh!!!!!!
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03-12-2017, 06:55 PM
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We can debate some seeds probably but I think we have to give the committee credit this year that they got the selections right!
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03-12-2017, 06:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
I bet Ed Cooley is really looking forward to playing in Dayton. Siiigggghhhhh!!!!!!
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Was thinking the same thing, it will not be a warm welcome for him I assume.
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03-12-2017, 07:00 PM
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Analysis from SBNation:
5:59 — Ohhhhhhh dear. Wichita State gets a stunning No. 10 seed, setting up the potential for “We Shouldn’t Have to be Doing This” round two with Kentucky in the second round. The Shockers felt like they got screwed by having to play the Wildcats in the second round when they were a No. 1 in 2014, now the roles have been reversed.
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03-12-2017, 07:03 PM
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Who can more credibly play the disrespect card?
Wichita State, who feels should've been way higher than a 10 seed and certainly not playing Kentucky in round 2?
Or Dayton, since everyone is already taking about the Wichita-UK matchup in round 2 AND Wichita refuses to schedule us in the non-con?
I'm going Flyers.
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03-12-2017, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Jeff
Analysis from SBNation:
5:59 — Ohhhhhhh dear. Wichita State gets a stunning No. 10 seed, setting up the potential for “We Shouldn’t Have to be Doing This” round two with Kentucky in the second round. The Shockers felt like they got screwed by having to play the Wildcats in the second round when they were a No. 1 in 2014, now the roles have been reversed.
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So they already have Wich St moving to the second round. Nice. Good bulletin board material!
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03-12-2017, 07:08 PM
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If you look closely at Dick Vitale's mouth, you can see both Jim Boeheim's and the ACC commissioner's hands there.
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03-12-2017, 07:10 PM
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Not particularly USC Fans
Originally Posted by CT Flyer
Was thinking the same thing, it will not be a warm welcome for him I assume.
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Not that most of us are big USC Fans, but I think Cooley will have earned his not so nice welcome. Plus another chance to root against the little eastern conference.
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03-12-2017, 07:22 PM
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Game times??? Did they get released at 7?
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03-12-2017, 07:24 PM
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski
Game times??? Did they get released at 7?
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Apparently not. Anxiously awaiting...
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03-12-2017, 07:37 PM
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What a shock, Jim Boeheim is on TV whining again. I'm really going to miss this when he retires.
NOT!
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03-12-2017, 07:43 PM
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Calipari was very complimentary to the Flyers and especially about Archie saying he's the hottest young coach out there and wouldn't be outcoached by anyone. The seeding sucks. A Dayton/Kentucky matchup pits my 2 favorite teams against each other early. UD comes first in my heart and was at their win over the Cats in Cinci.
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03-12-2017, 07:52 PM
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Not that it's surprising, but Boeheim's comments and some of the panel's earlier comments reinforce the general outlook the power conferences and a lot of the media have about the power conferences: they want to focus solely on "who you beat" and dismiss any soft loss which runs counter to their narrative. No doubt Syracuse, for example, has some nice wins...but you can't simply dismiss losses to 14-win St. Johns, 14-win Georgetown, and 9-win Boston College as if they didn't happen.
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03-12-2017, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by momszer
Calipari was very complimentary to the Flyers and especially about Archie saying he's the hottest young coach out there and wouldn't be outcoached by anyone. The seeding sucks. A Dayton/Kentucky matchup pits my 2 favorite teams against each other early. UD comes first in my heart and was at their win over the Cats in Cinci.
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Archie is related to Calipari, correct? I believe Archie's dad is Calipari's cousin or something like that.
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03-12-2017, 08:49 PM
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On ESPN the selection committee chair just said Wichita State probably generated the most discussion: very high metrics v. beating only one team in the tournament.
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03-12-2017, 08:59 PM
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FlyGuy Pete Gillen says Dayton beats The Shockers. Is he related as well?
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03-12-2017, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeF
On ESPN the selection committee chair just said Wichita State probably generated the most discussion: very high metrics v. beating only one team in the tournament.
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Oh, they do have a win over a tournament team? Which one?
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03-12-2017, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeF
Not that it's surprising, but Boeheim's comments and some of the panel's earlier comments reinforce the general outlook the power conferences and a lot of the media have about the power conferences: they want to focus solely on "who you beat" and dismiss any soft loss which runs counter to their narrative. No doubt Syracuse, for example, has some nice wins...but you can't simply dismiss losses to 14-win St. Johns, 14-win Georgetown, and 9-win Boston College as if they didn't happen.
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They didn't win any non-con games outside of the Carrier Dome. St. John's and Georgetown losses were at home. Also lost to UConn on a neutral site. Only ACC road game W's were Clemson & NC State. Evidently, not impressive.
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03-12-2017, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeF
Not that it's surprising, but Boeheim's comments and some of the panel's earlier comments reinforce the general outlook the power conferences and a lot of the media have about the power conferences: they want to focus solely on "who you beat" and dismiss any soft loss which runs counter to their narrative. No doubt Syracuse, for example, has some nice wins...but you can't simply dismiss losses to 14-win St. Johns, 14-win Georgetown, and 9-win Boston College as if they didn't happen.
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Focusing on who you beat is fine, but it has to be normalized relative to the number of opportunities a team has to play good teams. If not, smaller conferences will be lucky to get anyone into thrvtourney other than the auto bid. Syracuse does not belong in the tournament, and watching Dicky V, Bilas and Boheim whining on ESPN is just precious.
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03-12-2017, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer
Oh, they do have a win over a tournament team? Which one?
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Ok, I finally figured it out: South Dakota State (18-16, RPI 155).
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03-12-2017, 11:54 PM
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Originally Posted by MikeF
Not that it's surprising, but Boeheim's comments and some of the panel's earlier comments reinforce the general outlook the power conferences and a lot of the media have about the power conferences: they want to focus solely on "who you beat" and dismiss any soft loss which runs counter to their narrative. No doubt Syracuse, for example, has some nice wins...but you can't simply dismiss losses to 14-win St. Johns, 14-win Georgetown, and 9-win Boston College as if they didn't happen.
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In a beautiful twist of fate, Syracuse will face UNC Greensboro in NIT
Karma!
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03-13-2017, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by MikeF
ESPN has a sports betting podcast called "Behind the Bets" hosted by Chad Millman. One of his regular college basketball guests is named Alan Boston. He talks about this every year: matching up the non power teams in first round match-ups, under-seeding non power teams, etc. Check out his Twitter feed right now (https://twitter.com/bostonred88). He's not impressed.
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I am bumping this because if you have not checked it out, you are missing out on one of us,
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03-13-2017, 11:01 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I am bumping this because if you have not checked it out, you are missing out on one of us,
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Reading that blog is as bad as Blackburn Review. Excuse me while I go gargle with bleach.
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I shaved my balls for this?
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03-13-2017, 12:12 PM
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I just read through the entire WSU Selection Sunday thread. Their biggest beef seems to be the disrespect but I can see why the committee had a hard time with them. The teams are picked based upon resumes and a few of their posters are correct in that their resume is lacking in quality wins. They are like us in that they have a lot riding on the early season tourney. This year they did not perform well. Like many teams, they had a change over of personnel and it took some time to gel. We had an issue with injuries. The reality is that many teams change from bad to good and good to bad over the season. What should the committee do? I think they try to pick the teams with the best resumes over the whole season. However, is this the best approach for seeding? Should the predictive models be used for this purpose? The thing is even the predictive models are not accurate for teams that have had injuries during the season. I think it would take a lot better minds to seed they teams correctly. Maybe they should consult Las Vegas.
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03-13-2017, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I just read through the entire WSU Selection Sunday thread. Their biggest beef seems to be the disrespect but I can see why the committee had a hard time with them. The teams are picked based upon resumes and a few of their posters are correct in that their resume is lacking in quality wins. They are like us in that they have a lot riding on the early season tourney. This year they did not perform well. Like many teams, they had a change over of personnel and it took some time to gel. We had an issue with injuries. The reality is that many teams change from bad to good and good to bad over the season. What should the committee do? I think they try to pick the teams with the best resumes over the whole season. However, is this the best approach for seeding? Should the predictive models be used for this purpose? The thing is even the predictive models are not accurate for teams that have had injuries during the season. I think it would take a lot better minds to seed they teams correctly. Maybe they should consult Las Vegas.
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I really think the "how'd you play in the last 10 games" should be back as an indicator. This gives teams who have had injuries early/mid year a chance to prove themselves and it certainly shows the momentum gained during crunch time late in the year...
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03-13-2017, 12:42 PM
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I don't know where else to post this and I don't know if the message board code lets you embed a tweet, so I'm linking to this tweet from Illinois State's coach:
https://twitter.com/DanMuller/status/841273731880218624
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03-13-2017, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by rollo
Reading that blog is as bad as Blackburn Review. Excuse me while I go gargle with bleach.
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I love Blackburn Review!
Easy way for mid-majors to get more quality home and home games OOC is to play each other, thereby having a material shot at not only more bids, but also improving their seeds.
Think about the following teams each guaranteeing 4 games versus each other in OOC, 2 home & 2 away.
Dayton, VCU, Rhody, Uconn, SMU, Cincy, St. Mary's, BYU, Gonzaga, Illinois State, Wichita State, and New Mexico (12 schools as examples, but basically schools who have consistently top 50 RPIs who get to the NCAA at least 1 or 2 times every 5 years).
Playing this format will increase bids and seeds.
Stop trying to beg P5 schools for home and home series. Would be great if Dayton for 2017-2018 was @St. Mary's & @Illinois State as well as having Cincy and Wichita State home.
Problem is a lot of the non P5 complainers about bids and seeds are not as sophisticated as Neil/Archie and the VCU AD/Wade on thinking through scheduling and fancy themselves as P5 schools so they would not consider this type of arrangement.
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03-13-2017, 01:01 PM
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I don't know about throwing Illinois State in there. They have had a 100+ RPI more often than not over the past several years.
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03-13-2017, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
I just read through the entire WSU Selection Sunday thread. Their biggest beef seems to be the disrespect but I can see why the committee had a hard time with them. The teams are picked based upon resumes and a few of their posters are correct in that their resume is lacking in quality wins. They are like us in that they have a lot riding on the early season tourney. This year they did not perform well. Like many teams, they had a change over of personnel and it took some time to gel. We had an issue with injuries. The reality is that many teams change from bad to good and good to bad over the season. What should the committee do? I think they try to pick the teams with the best resumes over the whole season. However, is this the best approach for seeding? Should the predictive models be used for this purpose? The thing is even the predictive models are not accurate for teams that have had injuries during the season. I think it would take a lot better minds to seed they teams correctly. Maybe they should consult Las Vegas.
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Not sure why they take the time to seed 1-68 only to rip it up for geography and to avoid conference rivals playing each other. Seems like a waste of time.
It's like if you were interviewing 68 candidates when opening a new office and you painstakingly ranked them only to then completely add new criteria based on who lives closest to the office or something
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03-13-2017, 01:22 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Oregon District
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to Jay Bilas and others
@JayBilas : if @Cuse_MBB had stones to play at @DaytonMBB in December, they may be playing at @UDArena for @NCAAFirstFour in March.
Feel free to share.
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2 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to MrFlyerFanatic For This Totally Excellent Post:
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03-13-2017, 01:32 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Join Date: Feb 2009
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Originally Posted by MrFlyerFanatic
@JayBilas : if @Cuse_MBB had stones to play at @DaytonMBB in December, they may be playing at @UDArena for @NCAAFirstFour in March.
Feel free to share.
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I may have to start following Jay again. I stopped a couple of years ago when he wouldn't get off on paying the players.
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