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02-27-2019, 08:58 PM
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Captain
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Holy sh#t - our boys are in second place!!!
Thank you LaSalle Explorers
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02-27-2019, 09:04 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by OCFlyer85
Thank you LaSalle Explorers
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LaSalle was down a couple of players but they looked good. Davidson looked off.
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02-27-2019, 09:24 PM
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Davidson seems to be hitting a bit of a wall or they overachieved earlier in the year and are now leveling off. Still want them to win out now so when we beat them in the semis it's a good win.
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02-27-2019, 09:27 PM
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Duquesne drops one tonight also!
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02-27-2019, 09:46 PM
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Too bad that both Davidson and the Dukes lost tonight. This does not really help our chances of an at large bid, which is a long shot anyway. We want the top teams to keep winning so our wins against them are more valuable in at large consideration. For all intents and purposes, winning the regular season outright is out of reach and 4th place or higher is virtually assured, so having the teams ahead of us lose is going to weaken our resume, even if we end up placing higher in the regular season standings in the A10.
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02-27-2019, 10:05 PM
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True enough Frisco; but it can be a positive, as the 2 seed has a better draw, and they get to play in the first game of the quarterfinal evening session. That gives them more rest and longer turn around time. Given the UD depth chart issue, then it could work in Flyers favor. Plus, it has to feel good, if a team goes in to conference tournament with the feeling and belive that they are one of top favorites, must be a better feeling than we our fourth, fifth, or sixth
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02-28-2019, 06:35 AM
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Davidson is playing like Daviddaughter right now and the A10 Tourney appears to be a 2-Man race.
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02-28-2019, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by rollo
Davidson is playing like Daviddaughter right now and the A10 Tourney appears to be a 2-Man race.
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I giggled for 30 seconds Rollo
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02-28-2019, 07:43 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach
True enough Frisco; but it can be a positive, as the 2 seed has a better draw, and they get to play in the first game of the quarterfinal evening session. That gives them more rest and longer turn around time. Given the UD depth chart issue, then it could work in Flyers favor. Plus, it has to feel good, if a team goes in to conference tournament with the feeling and belive that they are one of top favorites, must be a better feeling than we our fourth, fifth, or sixth
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Maybe a bit of a mental boost, but practically speaking, whether we're 2, 3, or 4 is basically irrelevant. We have to beat VCU and either Davidson / Duquesne regardless of which order the games are played in.
Heck we are probably better off as the 4 seed since we would get to play VCU earlier rather than after we're already tired from consecutive games.
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02-28-2019, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Gazoo
Maybe a bit of a mental boost, but practically speaking, whether we're 2, 3, or 4 is basically irrelevant. We have to beat VCU and either Davidson / Duquesne regardless of which order the games are played in.
Heck we are probably better off as the 4 seed since we would get to play VCU earlier rather than after we're already tired from consecutive games.
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Good point. May be better to get VCU in semi final since that would certainly enhance at large resume with a win should we stumble in Champ game, but i’ll take a second place finish.
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02-28-2019, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111
Good point. May be better to get VCU in semi final since that would certainly enhance at large resume with a win should we stumble in Champ game, but i’ll take a second place finish.
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There is no at large chance if we beat VCU in semis and lose in finals. No way in Hades are 3 teams getting in (assuming VCU is a lock).
2 or 3 seed is better, why not have the 4 seed beat VCU for us???
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02-28-2019, 09:46 AM
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I was disappointed when I saw those scores. How is this a good thing? Being in 2nd vs 3rd hardly seems worth two of our better wins becoming less quality.
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02-28-2019, 09:48 AM
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Plus the fact that from a confidence standpoint you can't tell me it's not better to finish as high as possible in the regular season standings. CONFIDENCE!
And I was saying all year since the off season that even though most outlets picked VCU and Dayton to finish mid to lower mid in the standings that the more things change the more they will stay the same and I predicted it would end up being VCU and Dayton at the top of the league once again as it has been many times in the last six years.
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02-28-2019, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
I was disappointed when I saw those scores. How is this a good thing? Being in 2nd vs 3rd hardly seems worth two of our better wins becoming less quality.
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The quality doesn't matter... thinking an at large is possible at this point is a pipe dream.
Our Net rankings aren't even in the ballpark regardless of them losing. Even our RPI if that was still in use is like 20+ away from being even considered in our conference.
On top of all of that, I don't believe they'd put us in the play in game again especially if they have easy excuses to leave us out. So that's another 4 spots we have to move up. The only way they'd put us in the play-in game is if we definitely deserved a clean bid and they moved us down. If we're close they never will.
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02-28-2019, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
I was disappointed when I saw those scores. How is this a good thing? Being in 2nd vs 3rd hardly seems worth two of our better wins becoming less quality.
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We have no at-large case anyway. Easiest route in the conference tourney and highest finish in the conference standings is the goal now.
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02-28-2019, 10:02 AM
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I have been taking a deep dive look at UD's at-large chances, and I keep considering whether we could get in if we win out and lost A-10 Champ game. This assumes that UD wins final 3 regular season games.
With no one outside of VCU being a resume-boosting win + A10 very very unlikely to receive 3 bids in such a down year = I just can't see how we get in by losing the Championship game, even to VCU. I guess it's somehow possible winning out until the Champ game and losing another close one to VCU wouldn't look too bad, but it would once again provide clarification that VCU is a step above UD.
Now, if UD were to beat VCU prior to Champ game, that would be a good resume boost, but we would still likely need to beat whoever we play in Champ game because of the 3 bid unlikelihood.
And if VCU were to lose prior to the Champ game and UD lost to St. Bonnie's, Davidson, Duquesne, etc. then that team would most likely join VCU in the big dance.
Having the 2 seed certainly helps our chances getting to the A10 Tourney Finals.
Bottom Line: Just win baby!
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02-28-2019, 10:07 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by UD94
There is no at large chance if we beat VCU in semis and lose in finals. No way in Hades are 3 teams getting in (assuming VCU is a lock).
2 or 3 seed is better, why not have the 4 seed beat VCU for us???
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Because then we're winning the whole thing and it's no longer an at-large
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02-28-2019, 10:09 AM
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I said after the Davidson win that I thought Davidson would lose at least 1 more down the stretch, that if UD won the next 3 they could head to Pittsburgh playing for the 2 seed. They still have the Bonnies at home and @ richmond (plus Fordham at home, which was the only one I was 100% they'd win) Probably still a good chance they lose either vs Bonna or @ Richmond, both of whom are playing better in the 2nd half of the season than the first half. I'm not sure what all the tie breakers are, but if Bonna knocks off Davidson plus wins @ GW and over SLU, they might be able to get the 3 seed; they've split with Mason, and lost the first matchup with Davidson.
If UD wins out, who would we prefer as the 3 seed? Mason has @ SLU, VCU, @ GW, seems them winning all 3 would be challenging, so Davidson or Bona is the most likely
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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02-28-2019, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
I was disappointed when I saw those scores. How is this a good thing? Being in 2nd vs 3rd hardly seems worth two of our better wins becoming less quality.
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The goal is to win the conference. The goal is to win the conference tournament. These players/coaches could give a rat's arse about anything else (seeding, game times, etc.). First place, or do everything in your power to place as high as possible.
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02-28-2019, 10:24 AM
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It is a general to specific and specific to general analogy. A higher seed does not necessarily mean winning all remaining games; but winning all remaining games absolutely means a higher seed.
Given the need to win remaining games for both NCAA and/or NIT at-large selection purposes, then we might as well win for A10 tournament seeding purposes as well.
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02-28-2019, 10:26 AM
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Well who needs "bracketologists" when all the experts are right here on UDPride?
You guys do realize that to win the conference VCU will have to lose-out right? They are two games ahead of us and own the tie-breaker.
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02-28-2019, 10:28 AM
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We can share the conference title if we have the same record. Seeding is different.
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02-28-2019, 10:34 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Well who needs "bracketologists" when all the experts are right here on UDPride?
You guys do realize that to win the conference VCU will have to lose-out right? They are two games ahead of us and own the tie-breaker.
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Actually, no. If we finish with the same record as VCU, BOTH teams will be recognized as Regular Season A10 Champs.
VCU would get the 1-seed in the A10 tournament based on tie-breakers.
Lots of conferences do this. The B12 immediately comes to mind, as KU's run of 14 straight regular season titles includes several "ties" or Co-champs.
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02-28-2019, 10:41 AM
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I'd much rather see VCU win-out and secure their at-large bid than be fake A10 champs.
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02-28-2019, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
I'd much rather see VCU win-out and secure their at-large bid than be fake A10 champs.
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What exactly is a "fake A-10 champ"? We in all probablity wil not finish in a tie with VCU for the championship. But should that occur by some strange twist of fate there would be nothing fake about it. You are what your record says you are and we would be co-champs, no if's and's or but's. would help with the dreaded "eye test".
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02-28-2019, 11:09 AM
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We only have two chances at a bid: win the A10 tourney, or win out and lose to VCU in the tourney final, and that is a slim chance.
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02-28-2019, 11:27 AM
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Originally Posted by jack72
We only have two chances at a bid: win the A10 tourney, or win out and lose to VCU in the tourney final, and that is a slim chance.
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I think you're right Jack. Either way the Flyers just keep winning and keep the fingers crossed for the two seed.
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02-28-2019, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan67
I giggled for 30 seconds Rollo
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I giggled at first too, then I tried to calculate how many microaggressions were in Rollo's sentence.
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02-28-2019, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72
We only have two chances at a bid: win the A10 tourney, or win out and lose to VCU in the tourney final, and that is a slim chance.
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Agree but still too early to put the "slim" in there should the latter happen, imo. Can't have these teams that all of a sudden show up in the conf. tourney and steal a bid..Yes, we know it always happens but to what degree we'll soon find out..
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02-28-2019, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by steve
Agree but still too early to put the "slim" in there should the latter happen, imo. Can't have these teams that all of a sudden show up in the conf. tourney and steal a bid..Yes, we know it always happens but to what degree we'll soon find out..
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You do realize that other teams/fans would look at the Flyers winning the A10 tourney as a bid stealer.
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02-28-2019, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
You do realize that other teams/fans would look at the Flyers winning the A10 tourney as a bid stealer.
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Yes but this is solely about UD and their chances to get in and has nothing to do about how others look at UD.
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02-28-2019, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80
You do realize that other teams/fans would look at the Flyers winning the A10 tourney as a bid stealer.
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I would love that to be the case. Win out these last three games and win out in Brooklyn! It would be an added excitement to know that we were a bid stealer for someone else and it probably wouldn't be for VCU with their current resume.
Maybe we would be a bid stealer for someone like Indiana!
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02-28-2019, 01:16 PM
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A couple of years ago, I looked thru a few seasons of data, and it seemed that there were 1-2 bid stealers every season. So what happened the next 2 years? there were 0. I think that was year 3 & 4 of UD's run, or perhaps 2 & 3.
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02-28-2019, 02:08 PM
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Just think how different this conversation would be if we had actually stopped VCU on that last possession in Dayton. We would be tied for the league lead and have an additional quad 1 win. Ugh.
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02-28-2019, 02:15 PM
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If "ifs and buts were candies and nuts"...
We still have everything in front of us and and outside shot at an at-large bid. The season could be a LOT worse...
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02-28-2019, 02:18 PM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by John C.
Just think how different this conversation would be if we had actually stopped VCU on that last possession in Dayton. We would be tied for the league lead and have an additional quad 1 win. Ugh.
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Just think how different this conversation would be if Josh didn't sink a FT with 2.2 seconds left at Davidson.
And so on
And so on...
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02-28-2019, 02:58 PM
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Lots of close games this year. There could be lots of ifs. They did not all fall our way, but a few have so far.
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02-28-2019, 03:03 PM
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The George Mason home loss hurts me the most since we lead most of the game and choked at the end.
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02-28-2019, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by UD62
What exactly is a "fake A-10 champ"? We in all probablity wil not finish in a tie with VCU for the championship. But should that occur by some strange twist of fate there would be nothing fake about it. You are what your record says you are and we would be co-champs, no if's and's or but's. would help with the dreaded "eye test".
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So if we have the exact same conference record as VCU but they beat us twice out of two games, you think we are the champs?
By some technicality only.
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02-28-2019, 07:45 PM
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So since we are playing a bit of IF, If we hadn’t beaten VA and all other results were the same, would we be inside the bubble now or after a 5-1 or 4-2 finish?
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02-28-2019, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72
We only have two chances at a bid: win the A10 tourney, or win out and lose to VCU in the tourney final, and that is a slim chance.
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Agree . . . although it looks like the "slim" chance might be putting on a few pounds lately
In all the right places.
Last edited by 312to937; 02-28-2019 at 08:16 PM..
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02-28-2019, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
So if we have the exact same conference record as VCU but they beat us twice out of two games, you think we are the champs?
By some technicality only.
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No. By the banner that would hang in UD Arena.
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02-28-2019, 08:23 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
So if we have the exact same conference record as VCU but they beat us twice out of two games, you think we are the champs?
By some technicality only.
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Marquette will probably hang the Big East banner, but was 0-2 against a 3rd place St. John’s team who is 3 games off the lead. Is that just a technicality??
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02-28-2019, 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
So if we have the exact same conference record as VCU but they beat us twice out of two games, you think we are the champs?
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No, I think we would be co-champs.
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03-01-2019, 11:16 AM
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SLUFLYER's Marquette analogy makes no sense so no need to address it. I'm not saying we wouldn't be "co-champs" based on the current rules. What I'm saying is that is just a technicality and a stupid rule. If two teams have the same conference record but one beat the other 2 out of 2 games the winner should be the outright champ.
"Some other conferences do it" is not an argument.
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03-01-2019, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Marquette will probably hang the Big East banner, but was 0-2 against a 3rd place St. John’s team who is 3 games off the lead. Is that just a technicality??
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Not even close to the same comparison...
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03-01-2019, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
SLUFLYER's Marquette analogy makes no sense so no need to address it. I'm not saying we wouldn't be "co-champs" based on the current rules. What I'm saying is that is just a technicality and a stupid rule. If two teams have the same conference record but one beat the other 2 out of 2 games the winner should be the outright champ.
"Some other conferences do it" is not an argument.
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I agree the Marquette argument isn't the same BUT I believe every conference would name co-champs in the situation that you are asking about.
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03-01-2019, 11:35 AM
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This is a ridiculous discussion. They would be co-champs, period. For that to happen UD would have had to beat some teams that VCU lost to, so that would even things out. For example, VCU lost to Davidson. UD beat Davidson.
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03-01-2019, 12:01 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
SLUFLYER's Marquette analogy makes no sense so no need to address it. I'm not saying we wouldn't be "co-champs" based on the current rules. What I'm saying is that is just a technicality and a stupid rule. If two teams have the same conference record but one beat the other 2 out of 2 games the winner should be the outright champ.
"Some other conferences do it" is not an argument.
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My analogy was based off of your argument that because VCU beat UD twice, they're the champs. You can say it's stupid or a technicality, but you're still wrong......so says the banner that would be hanging in UD Arena (which was my FIRST post/response).
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03-01-2019, 01:17 PM
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I've got an idea: how about we create the rules for this sort of thing before the season starts, and then, if we collectively don't like the rule, we change it for the next season?
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03-01-2019, 01:43 PM
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The funniest thing about this debate is how incredibly unlikely this is to come to fruition. What are the odds of us winning out and VCU losing 2 of 3?
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03-01-2019, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
The funniest thing about this debate is how incredibly unlikely this is to come to fruition. What are the odds of us winning out and VCU losing 2 of 3?
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Figgie?? Probably less than 10%, my guess.
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03-01-2019, 02:25 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
The funniest thing about this debate is how incredibly unlikely this is to come to fruition. What are the odds of us winning out and VCU losing 2 of 3?
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER
Figgie?? Probably less than 10%, my guess.
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Since UD and VCU don't play, that means there are 6 games in question. Assuming either team can win those 6 games, there are 64 ways for those 6 games to finish.
Just looking at Dayton games, there are 8 possible ways for Dayton's 3 games to finish, so we're looking at 1 of those 8. So, we are already down to 12.5% possibilities.
For the VCU games, we want them to win any 2 games. So, of their 8 possible ways to finish, we eliminate 3 wins, and 0 wins, so we're down to 6. Of those six, there are 3 ways to get 1 victory. So, that's down to 3.
So, .125 *.375 = 4.6875%, according to math possibilities.
Realistically? VCU has Richmond, Mason and Joe's left. I can see 1 loss in there, but I'd hate to think there is 2 in there. Dayton, depends on which team shows up, but they have a decent chance of going 3-0 if they play as they have been lately. I could also see them losing 2 of 3 because they lose focus.
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03-01-2019, 02:54 PM
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So on other words, only slightly higher than my odds of winning the power ball.
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03-01-2019, 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
The funniest thing about this debate is how incredibly unlikely this is to come to fruition. What are the odds of us winning out and VCU losing 2 of 3?
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Now? 0%.
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