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03-06-2019, 11:14 PM
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Join Date: Feb 2008
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UD was picked to finish 9th in the league at the beginning of the season. I think this is an improvement.
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03-06-2019, 11:19 PM
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Colonel
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I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
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03-06-2019, 11:55 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by jack72
Williams is 6'6'' and 205. Probably too big for Cohill. I would not be surprised if Cohill starts Sat for Davis.
Probably Mikesell and Landers guard him.
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You may be right, but when St. Joe’s visited earlier this season, Cohill locked-down Charlie Brown, and he’s bigger and a better scorer than Williams. Still, I think Mikesell gets much of that assignment, based on the “do whatever the team needs” factor.
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03-07-2019, 12:04 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by sheg
I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
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Frankly, I’m worried about any potential opponent, because when we don’t worry about them, we lose. But as far as potential opponents for VCU are concerned, there’s no team at the bottom of the bracket that’s stronger than Rhody, and the Billikens have the muscle to take VCU’s punches and send a barrage of their own back at ‘em. So, yeah, I hope Rhody becomes VCU’s first opponent and, if they get by the Rams in Blue, I hope they get SLU after that.
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03-07-2019, 08:12 AM
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I Am A Statistical God
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These are LIBob's probabilities from his first post in this thread, which uses a predictor for each game in the conference season and runs a lot of combinations. Interesting to see how it looks, and how close to accurate it was. Rhode Island too high, Saint Bonaventure too low, everyone else nearby within 2-3 spots.
Code:
Team Average Seed
VA Commonwealth 1.99
Davidson 3.01
St Louis 3.41
Dayton 4.17
George Mason 5.27
Rhode Island 5.50
Duquesne 8.84
St Joseph's PA 9.20
St Bonaventure 9.75
G Washington 9.89
La Salle 10.48
Massachusetts 10.51
Richmond 10.97
Fordham 12.00
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-07-2019, 08:28 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by sheg
I'm rooting for SLU Saturday. I want VCU to have to go through URI and SLU to get to Dayton. It's the best shot at winning the tournament. I'm not worried about Davidson, GMU, DUQ, Richmond, or Joe's. Dayton can beat all of them...they just have to not beat themselves.
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You better worry about each and every one of them. As inconsistent as JC has been playing and if the guards come out listless, which one does most every game now, this team is dead...
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03-07-2019, 08:58 AM
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Colonel
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I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like
VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU
Four of those would be on the other side of the bracket, i.e. can't be faced until the final and will be beating each other up in the quarters and semis.
DUQ
GMU
and then a big gap
LAS
JOES
MASS
RICH
FORD
GW
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Last edited by sheg; 03-07-2019 at 09:01 AM..
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03-07-2019, 09:19 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by sheg
I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like
VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU
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I would have the same 5 teams but in this order
VCU
SLU
SBU
URI
DC
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-07-2019, 09:28 AM
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I would like to play LaSalle every game of the tournament.
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03-07-2019, 09:46 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by sheg
I worry about every game. But if I'm ranking the teams in order of who I least want to face, it's probably something like
VCU
SLU
DC
URI
SBU
Four of those would be on the other side of the bracket, i.e. can't be faced until the final and will be beating each other up in the quarters and semis.
DUQ
GMU
and then a big gap
LAS
JOES
MASS
RICH
FORD
GW
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It appears we're locked into a match with Davidson in the semis, presuming we both win in the quarters. It's a matter of who do we not want to face in the quarters. I don't want any part of SLU or SBU. Would LOVE to see them be 4th and 5th with the winner of that game against VCU/Rhody quarterfinal winner.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-07-2019, 10:26 AM
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Captain
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Probabilities Through games of 3/6:
Code:
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th Average Seed
VA Commonwealth 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00
Davidson 0.00% 83.47% 16.53% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.17
Dayton 0.00% 16.53% 83.47% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.83
St Bonaventure 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 55.16% 44.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.45
St Louis 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 44.84% 10.89% 31.12% 13.15% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.13
George Mason 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25.53% 33.96% 40.51% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.15
Duquesne 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 18.75% 34.92% 46.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.28
Rhode Island 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 8.00
La Salle 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 97.82% 2.18% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 9.02
St Joseph's PA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.18% 74.55% 23.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.21
Richmond 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 23.28% 76.73% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 10.77
G Washington 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 67.58% 27.68% 4.74% 12.37
Massachusetts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 14.83% 60.09% 25.08% 13.10
Fordham 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.59% 12.23% 70.18% 13.53
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03-07-2019, 10:36 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Interesting that the probabilities have the Flyers at the 3 seed but the potential 6 match-up is really up for grabs between SLU, GM and Duquesne.
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03-07-2019, 10:39 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Okay, I'm sucked in again. I will be looking at this for the next 3 days.
If SLU doesn't win Saturday, they are most likely to end up on the 6 line.
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03-07-2019, 10:59 AM
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Major General
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Originally Posted by longtimefan
I would like to play LaSalle every game of the tournament.
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Interestingly enough, as bad as they are, prior to last night they had not lost an A10 game by more than 13 points and last night they even got their leading scorer back....
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03-08-2019, 12:27 AM
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Colonel
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SLU wins at SBU = SLU 4 seed, SBU 5 seed. They can slug it out for the right to slug it out with URI/VCU for the right to lose to Dayton in the finals. DAY and DAV would open with DUQ or GMU. This is the best case scenario imo.
SBU wins they get the four. Then it gets interesting.
GWU (vs GMU), DAY win = SLU 5 (2 DAY vs 7 DUQ if Richmond beats Davidson, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU if not)
So if SBU (1:00) and GWU (2:00) win, Dayton ideally wins to bump SLU up to 5. Because
GWU, DUQ win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
If SBU and GMU win:
DAY, DAV (@RIC) win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
DUQ win = 3 DAY vs 6 GMU, 2 DAV vs 7 SLU
DAY, RIC win = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU
(All this, of course, could be a case of "be careful what you wish for")
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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Last edited by sheg; 03-08-2019 at 12:31 AM..
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03-08-2019, 10:59 AM
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Brigadier General
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Which scenario, if any, prevents us from getting in the top 4?
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03-08-2019, 11:02 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan
Which scenario, if any, prevents us from getting in the top 4?
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There's not any scenario
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03-08-2019, 11:09 AM
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Colonel
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UD can be 2 or 3. No higher, no lower.
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03-08-2019, 11:26 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by sheg
UD can be 2 or 3. No higher, no lower.
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So is there a distinct advantage to the two over the three?
Assuming we play well tomorrow and win...
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03-08-2019, 11:33 AM
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Colonel
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Not really. It would be about matchups. See my post above for the possibilities.
Ideally, SLU and SBU are on the other side of the bracket and they and URI and VCU can all beat each other up for two days.
I'd rather face GMU than DUQ, but the difference is small. And facing Davidson, the only reason it would matter is what color uniform everybody wears.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-08-2019, 11:39 AM
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Lieutenant Colonel
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Not other than what time you play and who you play in the quarterfinals on Friday. Numbers 2 and 3 will play each other in the semifinals on Saturday if they both win on Friday.
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03-08-2019, 11:49 AM
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Brigadier General
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Originally Posted by sheg
Not really. It would be about matchups. See my post above for the possibilities.
Ideally, SLU and SBU are on the other side of the bracket and they and URI and VCU can all beat each other up for two days.
I'd rather face GMU than DUQ, but the difference is small. And facing Davidson, the only reason it would matter is what color uniform everybody wears.
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In an ideal world, we'd like the best "matchup" in the quarters and a bonus would be Davidson (our likely semis opponent) having a crappy matchup, hence a chance to get knocked off.
The way it appears to be playing out, in my opinion, we're avoiding the toughest matchups for UD (based on personnel, style of play and key category advantages), or at least as many as we could reasonably hope for - with Rhody, SLU and SBU on the opposite side of the bracket. Not a big fan of potentially seeing Duquesne in the quarters, and would probably prefer George Mason simply because they've struggled down the stretch, having lost 4 of 5 and getting pasted by both VCU and SBU.
Best scenario from my perspective would be GMU at 6-seed and the Dukes at 7 seed, assuming we take the 3-seed. Flip them if we get the 2-seed.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-08-2019, 12:03 PM
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Colonel
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If SBU, GMU, DAY, and RIC all win tomorrow, it's 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ and 3 DAV vs 6 SLU. I could see that working. Davidson wins on a lucky 3 at the buzzer after getting whalloped by SLU all day. Then their seven deep lineup limps into Saturday's game. That Would work. But I think SLU would win that matchup. And I'd rather face Davidson than SLU. SLU is gathering steam big time right now.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-08-2019, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by sheg
If SBU and GMU win:
DAY, DAV (@RIC) win = 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
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Just curious about this... If this happens wouldn't Duquesne and St. Louis be tied (10-8) and St. Louis would win the tiebreaker? Then we would play Duquesne as the #3 vs.#6?
Just seeing who we need to root for tomorrow as I would rather have us play Duquesne again vs. St. Louis, I think?!
Go Flyers!
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-08-2019, 06:04 PM
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Colonel
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GMU would be fifth in that scenario, SLU 6 (tiebreaker over DUQ), DUQ 7
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03-08-2019, 06:25 PM
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I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-08-2019, 11:27 PM
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General
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Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
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___________________
You have got to buck up, man. You cannot drag this negative energy into the tournament!
Walter Sobchak - The Big Lebowski
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03-09-2019, 12:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
___________________
You have got to buck up, man. You cannot drag this negative energy into the tournament!
Walter Sobchak - The Big Lebowski
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Right, we play who we play. No matter who it is, we have to win, whether it's Fordham or VCU.
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03-09-2019, 08:05 AM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by MD Flyer Pride
I guess we might want St. Louis to beat SBU tomorrow. Just would rather not face St. Louis.
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark
___________________
You have got to buck up, man. You cannot drag this negative energy into the tournament!
Walter Sobchak - The Big Lebowski
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Originally Posted by TXFlyerFan
Right, we play who we play. No matter who it is, we have to win, whether it's Fordham or VCU.
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Negative energy or not, I'd rather be playing Fordham than VCU.
Seriously, A SLU win gives them the 4 and SBU the 5, meaning both are on the other side of the bracket. Would give us GM or Duquesne in the 6 or 7 seed. Not going to lie, I would like to see that. A SLU loss, puts them in the mix for the 6 or 7 too.
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St Bonaventure
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SAINT BONAVENTURE
Founded in 1858, St. Bonaventure University is a liberal arts college located on 500 acres in southwestern New York state. SBU offers 43 undergraduate majors, the most popular of which are elementary education, journalism, psychology, accounting, marketing, finance, and management. Total undergraduate enrollment is 2,000. Virtually all freshmen and most undergraduates live on campus. A founding member of the A10 Conference. Famous athletes include Bob Lanier. Historical nickname was the Brown Indians, but later changed to the Bonnies. Their mascot is a wolf. |
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03-09-2019, 10:58 AM
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Does not matter. This year's team can beat any A10 team if they come to play and shoot okay from outside. They can lose to anyone if they don't.
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03-09-2019, 11:10 AM
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General
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Originally Posted by jack72
Does not matter. This year's team can beat any A10 team if they come to play and shoot okay from outside. They can lose to anyone if they don't.
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I agree with Jack; there are times when this team looks great and other times when they look horrible. Two ends of the spectrum - Virginia and the second Rhode Island game. If they play well, they literally can compete with anyone. If they play poorly, they could be one-and-done no matter the opponent. That is why I say, if they were able to play well through the A-10 tournament and then sneak into the NCAA, they could do some damage. As Jack indicates, a lot of it will depend on their outside shooting, and I will add their ability to secure the ball and limit errant passes.
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03-09-2019, 02:14 PM
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General of the Air Force
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My order of preference?
1) I want a rematch with GMU in the quarters. We have the “payback” factor on our side, and GMU has been slumping down the stretch.
2) If not GMU, then I’d rather see a rematch with SLU than Duquesne, for 3 reasons: (a) they also have a short bench, (b) they can’t shoot to save their lives, and (c) they’ll be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, so fatigue should be a factor with the short bench and the poor shooting, particularly in the 2nd Half (when we generally play better).
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03-09-2019, 03:17 PM
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General of the Air Force
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GM up 16 on GW 15 min left.
Assuming GM goes on to win:
Davidson and Flyers win - Flyers 3 playin SLU 6
Davidson and Flyers lose - Flyers 3 playing GM 6
Davidson lose and Flyers win - Flyers 2 playing Duquesne 7
Davidson and Flyers both lose - Flyers 3 playing GM 6
I think
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03-09-2019, 03:38 PM
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Colonel
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Assuming GMU holds on.
Dayton, Davidson:
Both win = 2 DAV vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
Only DAV wins = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Only DAY wins = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU
Neither win = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Edit: 22 point game. I think GMU's got it
Short version: if Davidson loses, they play SLU. Dayton plays DUQ or GMU.
Last edited by sheg; 03-09-2019 at 03:44 PM..
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Mad Props to sheg For This Totally Excellent Post:
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03-09-2019, 04:39 PM
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General of the Air Force
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Originally Posted by sheg
Assuming GMU holds on.
Dayton, Davidson:
Both win = 2 DAV vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAY vs 6 SLU
Only DAV wins = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Only DAY wins = 2 DAY vs 7 DUQ, 3 DAV vs 6 SLU
Neither win = 2 DAV vs 7 SLU, 3 DAY vs 6 GMU
Edit: 22 point game. I think GMU's got it
Short version: if Davidson loses, they play SLU. Dayton plays DUQ or GMU.
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I never like to see us lose, but if losing tonight increases our probability of facing GMU again, I might be in favor of it. Otherwise, we’d have to beat Duquesne 3 times in 1 season, and the Dukes might be too motivated to let that happen.
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03-09-2019, 05:42 PM
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I Am A Statistical God
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Richmond and Duquesne wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 Duq vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 GMa vs ( 11 SJo vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 SLo vs 10 Ric ) )
------------------------
Richmond and Dayton wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 GMa vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Dav vs ( 6 SLo vs ( 11 SJo vs 14 For ) )
2 Day vs ( 7 Duq vs 10 Ric ) )
------------------------
Davidson and Duquesne wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 Duq vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 GMa vs ( 11 Ric vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 SLo vs 10 SJo ) )
------------------------
Davidson and Dayton wins
1 VCU vs ( 8 RIs vs 9 LSa ) )
4 SBo vs ( 5 GMa vs ( 12 GWa vs 13 Mas ) )
3 Day vs ( 6 SLo vs ( 11 Ric vs 14 For ) )
2 Dav vs ( 7 Duq vs 10 SJo ) )
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5 UDPriders Offer Mad Props to Figgie123 For This Totally Excellent Post:
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03-09-2019, 06:59 PM
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Captain
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Richmond holds a 4 point lead over Davidson at the half.
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