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12-12-2009, 01:20 PM
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#24 in RPI with 26th SOS
We all need to put the season in prespective. After 9 games, we are #24 in RPI with the 26th based SOS. http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html
We are 2-2 againist top 100 teams losing to 2 top 15 teams. If we had a few breaks and won either Villanova or Kst., all of us would be happy at 8-1 with a RPI of like 12. But we are not that far off at 7-2.
I agree we have not played that well yet for 40 minutes, but the stats above are pretty promising based upon UD having a lot more upside than downside in playing better than rest of the season.
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12-12-2009, 01:32 PM
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I'd rather be playing like we are and winning like we are than playing great and losing heartbreakers.
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12-12-2009, 03:08 PM
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Not to kill the buzz, but we are #71 in kenpom and #44 in sagarin, which the committee uses much more than RPI nowadays. RPI is old school and becoming outdated. Kenpom and Sagarin are new school much more advanced statisical models
#71 in kenpom doesnt surprise, but #44 in sagarin is pretty good for us
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12-12-2009, 03:08 PM
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Actually it was 24 RPI with a 25 SOS, but it is changing all the time. realtimerpi has a lot of errors.
http://www.udpride.com/images/rpi.htm
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12-12-2009, 03:19 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Not to kill the buzz, but we are #71 in kenpom and #44 in sagarin, which the committee uses much more than RPI nowadays. RPI is old school and becoming outdated. Kenpom and Sagarin are new school much more advanced statisical models
#71 in kenpom doesnt surprise, but #44 in sagarin is pretty good for us
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Where did you hear that Kenpom and Sagarin were used by the committee?
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12-12-2009, 03:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Where did you hear that Kenpom and Sagarin were used by the committee?
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They're not.
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12-12-2009, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd
Where did you hear that Kenpom and Sagarin were used by the committee?
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I was wondering this as well - I thought it was rpi and not kenpoim and sagarin
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12-12-2009, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by NCkevi
I was wondering this as well - I thought it was rpi and not kenpoim and sagarin
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Who says that they use anything, We dont know how they make up their choices.
I assume the people in those committees use any and all knowledge at their disposal. Which includes this.
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12-12-2009, 03:38 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Who says that they use anything, We dont know how they make up their choices.
I assume the people in those committees use any and all knowledge at their disposal. Which includes this.
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Read any article on the Mock selection process and you get pretty good indication on what is used. Sagarin and Pomeroy are not made available to committee members when they are making their final decisions. The big thing is the RPI of your opponents in determining goods wins/bad losses and not necessarily a team's individual RPI.
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12-12-2009, 03:55 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Not to kill the buzz, but we are #71 in kenpom and #44 in sagarin, which the committee uses much more than RPI nowadays.
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Ahem: http://www.midmajority.com/2009/02/m...-2009.php#more
So the committee uses WHAT, now? Want a do-over on that one?
No argument that there are other, more complex ratings schemes out there to look at, depending on what you're trying to rank (Sagarin is related to RPI and is just a more robust power rankings system, whereas KenPom doesn't care at all about describing past/existing wins and DOES care more about his system being predictive for future games which isn't even close to what you want in a selection heuristic), but not a one of those other rankings is even on the selection committee's radar. RPI is the one and only number in the room when they make their picks.
The committee's ability to emphasize or marginalize RPI to suit their needs (it clearly counts differently for different teams' resumes) may speak to a subjective application of the numbers, but it's still -- as a simple matter of fact and record as outlined in the above link for all to see/comprehend -- the only objective rankings data in use.
And hey, this is the first week when RPI becomes sorta-maybe-kinda-relevent and our objective rankings look GOOD. So hooray for RPI...
Rick
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12-12-2009, 05:03 PM
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Haha, what a joke of a comment.
A Kenpom (even more than a Sargin) or whatever ranking is based on his theory of ranking a basketball team through luck and what not.
The committee does not factor in "luck," they could care less that UD beat Towson by 2 or whatever.
I never look at Kenpom, ever, his site is a joke. Sargin is slightly more realistic. Those guys are trying to make a buck being the "anti" selection committee.
Fact is OOC SOS is looked at the most out of anything the committee looks at. They want to know who you played and how you did, conference SOS cannot be planned. If I had to rank them most important in order (especially for a mid-major like us).
OOC SOS
Total Wins/Losses and top 50 rpi wins
RPI
Overall SOS
Road/Home Splits
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12-12-2009, 05:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia
Ahem: http://www.midmajority.com/2009/02/m...-2009.php#more
So the committee uses WHAT, now? Want a do-over on that one?
No argument that there are other, more complex ratings schemes out there to look at, depending on what you're trying to rank (Sagarin is related to RPI and is just a more robust power rankings system, whereas KenPom doesn't care at all about describing past/existing wins and DOES care more about his system being predictive for future games which isn't even close to what you want in a selection heuristic), but not a one of those other rankings is even on the selection committee's radar. RPI is the one and only number in the room when they make their picks.
The committee's ability to emphasize or marginalize RPI to suit their needs (it clearly counts differently for different teams' resumes) may speak to a subjective application of the numbers, but it's still -- as a simple matter of fact and record as outlined in the above link for all to see/comprehend -- the only objective rankings data in use.
And hey, this is the first week when RPI becomes sorta-maybe-kinda-relevent and our objective rankings look GOOD. So hooray for RPI...
Rick
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Ahem....what?
If you really read anything, you would see the RPI is used as a strict GUIDELINE, a member of the committee is allowed to use whatever methods they see fit to rank a team. It would naive to think atleast one person doesnt look at all three of these ranking systems.
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12-12-2009, 05:57 PM
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As we know, a "good" RPI is never a safe bet either, but 3 losses in a row to lower tier A10 teams will sink your boat. I worry about bad losses and we have none of those yet.
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12-12-2009, 07:29 PM
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The game at New Mexico is looming larger and larger. The Lobos are currently 9-0 with an RPI of 31 (although their SOS is only 164).
Assuming the Flyers take care of business against Presbyterian, Appalachain St, and Boston U, they'll be 10-2 going into the Pit.
New Mexico is playing an 8-1 Texas A&M team tonight, followed by games against Northern AZ, Creighton, Oral Roberts, and Texas Tech.
If UD can somehow come away with a win at New Mexico, that would be a nice boost to the Flyers RPI, and a quality road win. Beat Ball St and UD will be a solid 12-2 heading into A10 play.
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12-12-2009, 07:31 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Ahem....what?
If you really read anything, you would see the RPI is used as a strict GUIDELINE, a member of the committee is allowed to use whatever methods they see fit to rank a team. It would naive to think atleast one person doesnt look at all three of these ranking systems.
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No way in hell does the committee use two theorists opinion to make their selection for the final 10 teams come selection Sunday.
Pomeroy is a theorist, his theories include a "luck factor" which means a team like UD for example will struggle in his ratings because all their games are close.
The committee has many available options for information and one man's opinion (Pomeroy) is not used.
Last edited by ClearTheRunwayForWLJ; 12-12-2009 at 08:35 PM..
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12-12-2009, 08:29 PM
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The mock selection show on ESPN last year showed that the only rating system in the room was RPI. However, RPI is just one of many factors used and is actually more important in seeding teams than selecting them. Good wins and bad losses and where these wins and losses took place. Right now (and I emphasize RIGHT NOW) UD is in pretty good shape having both losses to top 25 teams on a neutral court and 2 for 2 in road wins.
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12-12-2009, 08:52 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Ahem....what?
If you really read anything, you would see the RPI is used as a strict GUIDELINE, a member of the committee is allowed to use whatever methods they see fit to rank a team. It would naive to think atleast one person doesnt look at all three of these ranking systems.
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As Cleartherunway and others pointed out -- the only numbers in the room are RPI -- and it is used for seeding vs. selection.
Pomeroy would never be used for selection or seeding. Sagarin could have some validity, but is not used.
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12-12-2009, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by IAFlyer
As Cleartherunway and others pointed out -- the only numbers in the room are RPI -- and it is used for seeding vs. selection.
Pomeroy would never be used for selection or seeding. Sagarin could have some validity, but is not used.
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so are we saying that in private the selection people never read Pom or Sagarin to bolster their opinions or facts?
of course rpi is only official method.
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12-13-2009, 07:19 PM
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SOS and RPI are the number one factors, as well as total wins.
If Pomeroy was used UD would have been a four seed in the NIT last season and in the CIT the year before.
In a short answer, no. The committee does not read Pomeroy at all to make a decision. They are locked in a room with only certain information presented to them.
It is ludicrous to think that professionals (in their right) would use a theorists (Pomeroy) assertion to decide the final dozen teams or so.
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12-13-2009, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by ClearTheRunwayForWLJ
It is ludicrous to think that professionals (in their right) would use a theorists (Pomeroy) assertion to decide the final dozen teams or so.
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So the RPI wasnt create by a "theorist" and doesnt use the same kind of statistical methods to draw conclusions?
Pomeroy and Sagarin are just new school thought built upon a old school idea (RPI)
The RPI is based on the same foundations Pomeroy and Sagarin draw their conclusions on(except much more advanced)
Thanks for saying that and invalidating your argument.
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12-13-2009, 08:59 PM
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My argument is sound, because it is fact.
In your school of thought UD would have been a bubble team in the NIT. They were near definitely over 70 in Pomeroy rankings.
A group of people put together the RPI, SOS and made it the staple along with wins and losses of the most important criteria to make the NCAA Tournament.
The came along some random guy who decided that "luck" is a factor in winning games and he wanted to make a little money so he started his own website, his own theory based off of original findings.
His method is garbage. It is not "new school" it is his way of factoring how good a team is and if anyone considers "luck" to make you a good team then you are out of your mind.
The committee has no clue what Pomeroy is on selection Sunday, none. Kyle Whelliston from mid majority was allowed to sit in on a selection committee meeting and reported that they didn't even allow the internet to be open. They had facts placed in front of them by department chairs, that included rpi, sos, ooc sos, w/l, last ten games, road record, wins vs top 25 rpi, wins vs. top 50 rpi, wins vs. top 100 rpi, losses vs. top 100 rpi. Conferences were not even a factor in the decision making, just teams listed.
Pomeroy is a hack who cashed in on crap.
Last edited by ClearTheRunwayForWLJ; 12-13-2009 at 09:02 PM..
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12-13-2009, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by lilrudy4787
Ahem....what?
If you really read anything, you would see the RPI is used as a strict GUIDELINE, a member of the committee is allowed to use whatever methods they see fit to rank a team. It would naive to think atleast one person doesnt look at all three of these ranking systems.
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OK, now you have gone from the RPI being outdated and the sagarin and pomeroy systems being the predominant ranking systems used by the selection committee to saying that at least one person on the committee uses all three.
I will admit that I have never been in the selection room and do not know what they use but I have never heard the sagarin or pomeroy systems even mentioned by any of the experts that explain the selection process.
I think you like them so you just decided to blow smoke out your butt and made a statement that you have no possible way to corroborate.
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12-13-2009, 09:01 PM
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Originally Posted by cralford
I will admit that I have never been in the selection room and do not know what they use but I have never heard the sagarin or pomeroy systems even mentioned by any of the experts that explain the selection process.
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See above. Whelliston was in it last year and listed the items.
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