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  #1  
Old 03-12-2017, 03:54 PM
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Outliers & bubbles on NCAA Dance Card

The last two years the committee has pulled a team from below the dance card's bubble cut into the field at a team predicted in the field's expense.

In 2016 - It was #55 Syracuse and #47 Vanderbilt
for #44 San Diego State and #34 St Marys

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2016.htm

In 2015 - It was #48 Dayton, #49 Boise State, and #58 UCLA
for #46 Colorado State, #47 Miami (Fla), and #38 Temple

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm

This year's Dance Card

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think the dance card nails it this year, but curious if the dance card misses this year - who do they miss on? I don't see how they can pull Syracuse into the field. I don't see anyone else below that they would feel strongly enough about to bump someone out. The Big East schools seem to be the most at risk now that URI has the auto bid.

IN THE FIELD
32 Virginia Tech
33 Michigan St.
34 Seton Hall
35 @Middle Tennessee (auto)
36 Miami FL
37 Providence
38 South Carolina
39 Marquette
40 Xavier
41 Rhode Island (auto)
42 Oklahoma St.
43 Northwestern
44 @Wichita St. (auto)
45 USC
46 @Nevada (auto)
47 @UNC Wilmington (auto)
48 Wake Forest
49 Kansas St.
Bubble burst here ----->

50 Illinois St.
51 UT Arlington
52 @Vermont (auto)
53 Houston
54 Illinois
55 Syracuse
56 Monmouth
57 BYU
58 College of Charleston
59 Iowa
60 Georgia
61 Princeton
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Clemson

Last edited by UD90; 03-12-2017 at 04:33 PM.. Reason: Fixed Witchita State's auto bid
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  #2  
Old 03-12-2017, 04:00 PM
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Syracuse for Kansas St
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  #3  
Old 03-12-2017, 04:03 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Syracuse for Kansas St
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hmmm. I like it.

P5 has to eat its own (or the Big East or Witchita State) to make it happen though. That was what jumped out at me when I looked at it this year.
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:09 PM
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If I had to pick, I'd say they take Cuse over Wake, USC or Kstate.....in that order.

I think the committee pulls Wake because of their lack of quality wins/record vs the Top 50/Top 100.

I hate Syracuse and hope the committee punishes them for such a crappy non con SOS and for such a weak road/neutral performance and ignore the six (6) Top 50 wins.

USC's resume is similar to Cuse, but Cuse has more Top 50 wins. Kstate has similar resume as Wake's, but actually had an atrocious non con SOS.

If it were solely up to me I would leave Cuse at home. If I had to pick one to remove to put Cuse in, I would remove KState. I can't stand Power 5 schools that have ridiculously weak non con schedules.
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:11 PM
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If Syracuse makes it again, blah. They should not have made it in 2016 and should not make it again in 2017. Lack of road/neutral wins and horrific out of conference scheduling should be punished.
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:16 PM
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I think (IF) they pull someone up into the field it will be at the expense of a Big East team. They have 4 bubble teams bunched together. 3 finished at 10-8 in the conference. One finished at 9-9.

I don't think they will pull someone up, but it would be easy to eliminate a team who has only beat Depaul since February 4th and tourney win over a Butler team that has never won a Big East tournament game.
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Old 03-12-2017, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
The last two years the committee has pulled a team from below the dance card's bubble cut into the field at a team predicted in the field's expense.

In 2016 - It was #55 Syracuse and #47 Vanderbilt
for #44 San Diego State and #34 St Marys

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2016.htm

In 2015 - It was #48 Dayton, #49 Boise State, and #58 UCLA
for #46 Colorado State, #47 Miami (Fla), and #38 Temple

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance2015.htm

This year's Dance Card

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I think the dance card nails it this year, but curious if the dance card misses this year - who do they miss on? I don't see how they can pull Syracuse into the field. I don't see anyone else below that they would feel strongly enough about to bump someone out. The Big East schools and Witchita State seem to be the most at risk now that URI has the auto bid.

IN THE FIELD
32 Virginia Tech
33 Michigan St.
34 Seton Hall
35 @Middle Tennessee (auto)
36 Miami FL
37 Providence
38 South Carolina
39 Marquette
40 Xavier
41 Rhode Island (auto)
42 Oklahoma St.
43 Northwestern
44 @Wichita St.
45 USC
46 @Nevada (auto)
47 @UNC Wilmington (auto)
48 Wake Forest
49 Kansas St.
Bubble burst here ----->

50 Illinois St.
51 UT Arlington
52 @Vermont (auto)
53 Houston
54 Illinois
55 Syracuse
56 Monmouth
57 BYU
58 College of Charleston
59 Iowa
60 Georgia
61 Princeton
62 California
63 Indiana
64 Clemson
Am i missing something??? Didn't Wichita State earn an automatic bid?
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  #8  
Old 03-12-2017, 04:32 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Am i missing something??? Didn't Wichita State earn an automatic bid?
No. I am missing something. Thanks for the catch. Big East are the only non P5 schools at risk.

Last edited by UD90; 03-12-2017 at 04:35 PM..
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  #9  
Old 03-12-2017, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Lack of road/neutral wins and horrific out of conference scheduling should be punished.
Are you telling me you're not impressed by a 2-8 road record combined with an 0-3 neutral record?
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Old 03-12-2017, 06:33 PM
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Did Dance Card nail it?
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  #11  
Old 03-12-2017, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ce80 View Post
did dance card nail it?
100% 36 of 36
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  #12  
Old 03-12-2017, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
100% 36 of 36
Watching it on CBS, it seemed like Dance Card nailed it for 100%. Extremely impressive.
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:07 PM
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