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  #1  
Old 01-14-2022, 02:32 PM
springborofan springborofan is offline
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NET analysis

I took a little time to dig a little deeper into where UD falls in the latest NET rankings. Currently, UD is 92. Fair enough, our guys have the three really ugly losses.

There is some good and bad in the resume relative to other teams. Assuming UD goes 13-5 in conference and gets to the conference final, it will be very interesting to see how the committee looks at UD with a 23-11 record (8-5, 13-5, 2-1).

I don’t want to try to estimate which games UD wins/loses for the remaining A10 schedule but just taking a snapshot from today.

The Good:
UD is currently 5-3 in Q1/Q2 (2-0, 3-3 62.5 winning %)
Next closest team with 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 81 Miami (1-1, 4-2 62.5%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 57 Memphis (2-2,3-3,50%)
Next closest team with greater than 62.5% is 42 Colorado State (1-1,3-0, 80%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins, 5 Q1/Q2 wins and >62.5% is 37 WVU (2-2, 3-0, 71%)

The Bad:
Next closest team with TWO Q4 losses is 121 6-6 Buffalo (4-2, Q4)
Next closest team with at least 3 Q4 losses is 169 6-7 Niagara (5-4, Q4)

All of this is mostly just interesting at this point. It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year. That said, going back to my initial end of season scenario, I think the committee would really have a hard time measuring UD. Obviously, UD would climb quite a bit from its current 92 and, I would argue would have to be in consideration.

So, what does the committee value? For years, I’ve heard it quality wins. UD would have over 10 Q1/Q2 wins and better winning % than many of the middling Power 5 schools.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year.
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by springborofan View Post
I took a little time to dig a little deeper into where UD falls in the latest NET rankings. Currently, UD is 92. Fair enough, our guys have the three really ugly losses.

There is some good and bad in the resume relative to other teams. Assuming UD goes 13-5 in conference and gets to the conference final, it will be very interesting to see how the committee looks at UD with a 23-11 record (8-5, 13-5, 2-1).

I don’t want to try to estimate which games UD wins/loses for the remaining A10 schedule but just taking a snapshot from today.

The Good:
UD is currently 5-3 in Q1/Q2 (2-0, 3-3 62.5 winning %)
Next closest team with 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 81 Miami (1-1, 4-2 62.5%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q1/Q2 wins is 57 Memphis (2-2,3-3,50%)
Next closest team with greater than 62.5% is 42 Colorado State (1-1,3-0, 80%)
Next closest team with 2 Q1 wins, 5 Q1/Q2 wins and >62.5% is 37 WVU (2-2, 3-0, 71%)

The Bad:
Next closest team with TWO Q4 losses is 121 6-6 Buffalo (4-2, Q4)
Next closest team with at least 3 Q4 losses is 169 6-7 Niagara (5-4, Q4)

All of this is mostly just interesting at this point. It shows how much the 3 losses have hurt UD this year. That said, going back to my initial end of season scenario, I think the committee would really have a hard time measuring UD. Obviously, UD would climb quite a bit from its current 92 and, I would argue would have to be in consideration.

So, what does the committee value? For years, I’ve heard it quality wins. UD would have over 10 Q1/Q2 wins and better winning % than many of the middling Power 5 schools.
Committee has been consistent that quality wins will override bad losses, but you need enough quality wins for that to occur. 10 Q1/2 wins would be pretty impressive.
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Old 01-14-2022, 03:39 PM
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Dayton

should not be an NCAA team this year unless they win the A-10 championship in tourney play. They are not at-large eligible IMHO. Of course this could change if they win the rest of their A-10 games.
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  #5  
Old 01-14-2022, 04:02 PM
springborofan springborofan is offline
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I guarantee, in early March, the pundits will talk about how “weak” the bubble is. It happens every year. If you’re on the bubble, you have warts. Our’s are big hairy warts but we also would have quite a few quality wins in the scenario I outlined. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss the chances. The losses were all very early with a team that has 11 “Freshmen”.
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Old 01-14-2022, 06:31 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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Old 01-14-2022, 06:32 PM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo View Post
Take out one and we're a bubble team. Take out two and we are solidly in the field. Take out all three...
It's not officially sanctioned or possessing of insider wisdom, or anything, but the projection tool at barttorvik has shown itself to be fairly decent at predicting the field of 68, if not always nailing the placement on the ol' S-curve.

I fiddled with it over the weekend, and I would absolutely go along with "win 2 of those 3 to get back on the bubble, win all 3 to be solidly in." I don't think just winning 1 is enough to make up 20 places... meantime, changing all 3 outcomes on the projection machine slots us in as a rock solid at-large (as high as the final 7 seed, no worse than an 8 seed).

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?...22&team=Dayton [remember to choose "DynamaRank" for best results, I think you also have to do a "Drop" on an extra Fordham game that showed up as a result of rescheduling]

As it stands, any realistic remainder of outcomes makes us an Autobid or Bust. A 6 game stretch in February is hard to view as much more than a 3-3 breakeven, but if we're going to overperform realistic expectations, that's where the wins will have to come to put us back in the at-large discussion. The next few games and the final 4 games just don't have enough juice even were we to sweep them (in fact, outside of that 6 game key stretch against good opponents, we will lose even more ground if we drop more than 1 or 2).
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Old 01-14-2022, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
Start playing that game, and I'd counter with a proposal to "give back" Kansas in a close loss, but turn VCU into a close win in return. Again, using same said projection tool, it puts us almost right back in the exact same spot if you trade Kansas for VCU. It really is the 3 early losses that move the needle the most. Don't dig that hole, and sudden you don't need miracle wins over top 5 teams so long as you're taking care of business at home.
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Old 01-14-2022, 08:56 PM
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Old 01-14-2022, 11:42 PM
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I think we are a long-shot for the NCAA Tourney as an at-large. Everything has to go right and we have to go on an unbelievable tear in the conference.

That said, we are a totally different team than the team at the beginning of the season. We have developed enormously. But the losses still count, so it is what it is. I don't think it is out of the question that we could win the conference tournament though. A good indicator of our chances will be if we can show some toughness on the road in conference. Really good teams win on the road. I'm not sure if we will pull that level of improvement off yet.

I cautioned people who were losing their minds at the beginning of the season to wait about ten games to see what develops. It happens a lot with teams this young. There was no guarantee that the talent we had was really good, but undeveloped. It could have been lack of talent and lack of development, but it thankfully turns out that good talent was there. Patience, when you have a team this young!
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Old 01-15-2022, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post

That said, we are a totally different team than the team at the beginning of the season. We have developed enormously.

Patience, when you have a team this young!
Agree & disagree. We are better than the team that lost the three home games. They are improving. But we are still wildly inconsistent (especially outside of Holmes and Mali) in game to game performance. They still don't take care of the ball. I think road games (outside of GW) are perilous. They could beat Duquesne by 15 or lose by 8 today. Part of being a young team.
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Old 01-15-2022, 11:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Agree & disagree. We are better than the team that lost the three home games. They are improving. But we are still wildly inconsistent (especially outside of Holmes and Mali) in game to game performance. They still don't take care of the ball. I think road games (outside of GW) are perilous. They could beat Duquesne by 15 or lose by 8 today. Part of being a young team.
There is no question that we are inconsistent right now. I'm saying that we are not consistently bad like the start of the season where nobody knew where they fit with respect to division 1 competition.
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Old 01-15-2022, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
I think we are a long-shot for the NCAA Tourney as an at-large. Everything has to go right and we have to go on an unbelievable tear in the conference.

That said, we are a totally different team than the team at the beginning of the season. We have developed enormously. But the losses still count, so it is what it is. I don't think it is out of the question that we could win the conference tournament though. A good indicator of our chances will be if we can show some toughness on the road in conference. Really good teams win on the road. I'm not sure if we will pull that level of improvement off yet.

I cautioned people who were losing their minds at the beginning of the season to wait about ten games to see what develops. It happens a lot with teams this young. There was no guarantee that the talent we had was really good, but undeveloped. It could have been lack of talent and lack of development, but it thankfully turns out that good talent was there. Patience, when you have a team this young!
Originally Posted by Jeff View Post
Agree & disagree. We are better than the team that lost the three home games. They are improving. But we are still wildly inconsistent (especially outside of Holmes and Mali) in game to game performance. They still don't take care of the ball. I think road games (outside of GW) are perilous. They could beat Duquesne by 15 or lose by 8 today. Part of being a young team.
I see that we agree on a lot, but where do we disagree?
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Old 01-15-2022, 09:40 PM
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
This is rose colored delusion.
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It is a hypothetical. You know, like the one you used in the same post about losing to Kansas.
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Old 01-15-2022, 10:07 PM
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Old 01-15-2022, 11:19 PM
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Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
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Old 01-16-2022, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
I think we find out a lot on Tuesday.
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Old 01-16-2022, 10:29 AM
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They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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Old 01-16-2022, 02:33 PM
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I just want a top four finish. NET doesn’t matter. Also remember that regardless of whatever committee members say, I think we had our one shot at being one of the last four in. Let’s win three games in three days in DC. This team has already proven it can do that.
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Old 01-16-2022, 07:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Fudd View Post
Saint Louis and VCU on the road will help us figure out how good we really are.
This is how I'm choosing to approach it, too. That 6 game stretch starting in February will tell us whether we can realistically beat the rest of the A-10's good teams in succession, and thus, whether we can realistically look to the autobid or not.

I think a 14-4 A-10 team deserves to be in the at-large discussion, but because of our, ummmm, unique circumstances (3 buy game losses), we'd also have to get at least 2 quality wins in the A-10 tourney to get on the right side of that discussion (and 2 quality tourney wins means making the finals, because our first game will NOT be quality). Maybe 15-3, with no more losses at home, puts us on the right side of the discussion before the tourney even starts; but I know 13-5 requires the autobid.

I'm a fan of breaking the season into "chunklets" and looking at necessary outcomes for groups of games, rather than freaking out over individual games. We have 3 more games in our current "chunklet," and I think we can all agree that winning out -- 3-0 -- is probably necessary to keep that 14-4-or-better dream alive. After that, it's a 6 game chunklet (including those SLU and VCU games on the road; also @URI) where we need to go 4-2, but 3-3 is way more likely (and would eliminate our margin of error for the final 4 games).

But I digress. It all falls apart if we can't beat SBU on Tuesday. So let's do that.
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Old 01-16-2022, 07:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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Actually after yesterday’s game the Flyers jumped to 84 in the NET and now are 9 spots ahead of SBU.
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Old 01-16-2022, 07:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Hyde Park Flyer View Post
They have 5 wins against teams with a higher NET than SBU. SBU is only 3 spots higher than UD. It will be a tough game, but it’s very winnable.
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I watched SBU beat VCU. They are very good offensively, and have a very veteran squad. I think they will hold their composure at UD Arena, in a very composed loss.

SBU spaces their players really well on offense, and they pass to the open man. They had a ton of wide open shots against VCU because they share well. They handled VCU's press easily with good veteran point guard play. They have a big who should match up well against Holmes. This should be a tough game. They are just a well-rounded team.

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Old 01-16-2022, 08:13 PM
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Thanks for the update, TA111. SBU won the game against VCU at the stripe. We do a good job of moving our feet and a sliding foul trouble. We know that SBU is experienced. We knew this would be a tough game at the start of the season. I like our chances better now than then.
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Old 01-17-2022, 11:53 AM
SLUFLYER SLUFLYER is offline
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Originally Posted by maddog07 View Post
Take out the Kansas miracle shot and we’re a disaster. This is rose colored delusion. On the other hand if we could take out four losses we’d be highly ranked, and if we took them all out….
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Disaster? That's a hot take, agenda post there. Neutral wins over #40 Belmont and #84 Miami. Home win over #39 Va. Tech. The only thing disastrous this year was the first 2 weeks. Unfortunately, it's part of our resume.

We're 5-3 in Q1/Q2. A loss to Kansas and we're 4-4. Either is more than respectable (good side of bubble). Just going to be tough to hide those Q4 losses.

Be LOWD. Wear Red. And don't be MadDog.
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Mad Props to SLUFLYER For This Totally Excellent Post:
TXFlyerFan (01-17-2022)
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