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  #201  
Old 02-14-2017, 01:28 PM
Radar Radar is offline
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Originally Posted by UDFlyer23 View Post
Updated Bubble Watch:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Dayton [19-5 (10-2), RPI: 30, SOS: 73] Dayton's win at Rhode Island was a much bigger bummer for the Rams than it was a boost for the Flyers, at least in regards to each team's resume. As emotionally cathartic as a road win like that can be, the Rams absolutely needed it more. Then again, it's fair to note that it was Dayton's second top-50 win of the season, the first of which also came against Rhode Island. Archie Miller's team is snug in the bracket for now, but it's still got work to do to feel safe.
Nothing like butchering the English language!

"...but it's still got work to do..."

Why not just write: "...ain't got no wiggle room"?
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  #202  
Old 02-14-2017, 01:30 PM
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That's an interesting question; but I suspect it's more like oversight, and/or they weren't impressed with VCU oppents. But they have been told that Rhode Island is "big time", so they see UD win as a bigger deal.
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  #203  
Old 02-16-2017, 04:43 AM
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Rhode Island drops a home game to Fordham. Drops to 59. Kills our resume. Ugh
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  #204  
Old 02-16-2017, 07:14 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
Rhode Island drops a home game to Fordham. Drops to 59. Kills our resume. Ugh
Just win baby!
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  #205  
Old 02-16-2017, 07:24 AM
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Rhode Island hosting VCU is almost as important as us hosting VCU. If VCU loses both we will have 3 Top 50 wins.
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  #206  
Old 02-17-2017, 09:56 AM
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Updated ESPN Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
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  #207  
Old 02-17-2017, 10:17 AM
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Down to a 10 seed on Palm.
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  #208  
Old 02-17-2017, 10:19 AM
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Originally Posted by hessbz12 View Post
Updated ESPN Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Love this article, if just for the fact that they call Xavier the Mountaineers.
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  #209  
Old 02-17-2017, 10:24 AM
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Can Rhode Island and/or Vanderbilt get into the Top 50?
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  #210  
Old 02-17-2017, 10:54 AM
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If Rhody wins 4 of the last 5, but falls to VCU... they could just barely scrape back into the top 50.

If they win 4 of their last 5 including a win over VCU, they are a lock for top-50 status.

Anything other than that, and probably not. After losing at home to Fordham by 10, I am not counting on it.


As for Vandy, they are only favored to win 1 of their last 5... they play the top 3 teams in the SEC in there, S. Carolina at home, Kentucky away, FLA at home. They would have to go at least 3-2 for even a chance to scrape into the top 50, which means a win in one of these 3 games, and a road win at Tennessee who is also in the mid-50's RPI.

URI is more likely than Vandy to make it back into the top-50.
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  #211  
Old 02-17-2017, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
If they win 4 of their last 5 including a win over VCU, they are a lock for top-50 status.
I can't deny we lack signature wins so far. But I do believe based on our performance these last 4 years, we do pass the smell test. If we do our part from here on out we are set up to get some love.

Just looking at the top 30 RPI teams, if WE win 4 of our last 5 with a win over VCU, and two wins in the A10 Championship, we are in a strong position where the lack of top 25/50 victories could be forgiven. Mainly due to the fact that we have had fewer opportunities for those wins.

Looking at those top 30 teams, only VCU and UD have had fewer than 4 top 50 chances, and the range of the 28 others is 4 to 12, with the average probably around 7.

2 cents.
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  #212  
Old 02-17-2017, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by LIBob View Post
Down to a 10 seed on Palm.
??? Where did that come from? Why a 10 now? Doing nothing but winning but still get downgraded.
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  #213  
Old 02-17-2017, 12:38 PM
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We need 12 good losses. You know, like Mich St, Clemson, Ga Tech, Va Tech, blah blah blah
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  #214  
Old 02-17-2017, 12:47 PM
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We are winning but in the eyes of the experts our resume is not very good which is why we need to keep winning. We are far from a lock at this point and it is still not out of the question that the A10 is a one bid league this year.
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  #215  
Old 02-17-2017, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
We are winning but in the eyes of the experts our resume is not very good which is why we need to keep winning. We are far from a lock at this point and it is still not out of the question that the A10 is a one bid league this year.
This is why I have been saying all week we need VCU and URI to keep winning. Nothing is a lock at this point.
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  #216  
Old 02-17-2017, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
This is why I have been saying all week we need VCU and URI to keep winning. Nothing is a lock at this point.
Totally agree! This is the weakest the A10 as a whole Has been in a while so UD, VCU and URI who have some national respect need to keep winning or else the view of the league gets even worse.
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  #217  
Old 02-17-2017, 01:46 PM
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Now that we're all coming down off the URI win high, i think we all realize now where we do stand.

We are ok right now. We better keep winning. Any loss could cost us. Im not feeling great about it right now.

We are capable of winning out, but we will be Davidson and GW's Super Bowl. One big thing we have going for us is we will be fully healthy for Pittsburgh and i have to think we are the favorite right now. I'd just like to win that **** thing and worry about seed line only. The travesty of 2 years ago should teach us all a lesson about what the "experts" expect. I think as of right now at BEST a 10, likely an 11, and an outside chance of not being in at all.

Just keep winning and trust in Archie. One way or another this team will be in.
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  #218  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:37 PM
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According to http://bracketmatrix.com/ we are an 8 seed. There are four 9 seeds, four 10 seeds, and four 11 seeds that are trailing us. That is 12 teams total, not even counting other 8 seeds or possible 12 seed at larges.

For us NOT to make the tournament, 12 of these teams would have to pass us:

ACC (6): Syracuse, Miami, Va Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Big East (4): Seton Hall, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
Big 12: (4): Iowa St, Kansas St, TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten: (3) Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana
SEC: (2) Arkansas, Tennessee

That is a total of 19 teams.

What are the odds of us:

1. Playing horribly down the stretch, going 2-4 in the last five A10 games and losing the A10 tourney opener

AND

2. Having 12 out of the 19 above play better than us during that stretch? Many play each other in remaining games and may even face off in conference tournaments.

Now, I think we will win all five of our remaining A10 games and be just fine. But just in case I am wrong, does this show that we should be OK? Talk me off the ledge!
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  #219  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
Now, I think we will win all five of our remaining A10 games and be just fine. But just in case I am wrong, does this show that we should be OK? Talk me off the ledge!

No, we currently have zero Top 50 wins, and every team you listed is a P5 or Big East team, so some of them will be gathering steam down the stretch. Remain on the ledge...
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  #220  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
According to http://bracketmatrix.com/ we are an 8 seed. There are four 9 seeds, four 10 seeds, and four 11 seeds that are trailing us. That is 12 teams total, not even counting other 8 seeds or possible 12 seed at larges.

For us NOT to make the tournament, 12 of these teams would have to pass us:

ACC (6): Syracuse, Miami, Va Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech
Big East (4): Seton Hall, Marquette, Georgetown, Providence
Big 12: (4): Iowa St, Kansas St, TCU, Texas Tech
Big Ten: (3) Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana
SEC: (2) Arkansas, Tennessee

That is a total of 19 teams.

What are the odds of us:

1. Playing horribly down the stretch, going 2-4 in the last five A10 games and losing the A10 tourney opener

AND

2. Having 12 out of the 19 above play better than us during that stretch? Many play each other in remaining games and may even face off in conference tournaments.

Now, I think we will win all five of our remaining A10 games and be just fine. But just in case I am wrong, does this show that we should be OK? Talk me off the ledge!
It's too bad it's not the committee that has us an 8 seed. I'm still ticked off about what they did to us two years ago when everybody had us as an 8 or 9.
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  #221  
Old 02-17-2017, 02:58 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
??? Where did that come from? Why a 10 now? Doing nothing but winning but still get downgraded.
Could our season worst SOS of 81 have anything to do with it? The talking heads couldn't stop talking about URI to start the season. Now they are 7-5 in the last 12. That just won't get it done.

Did we show the world how good we are with 2 thumpings of St Louis? Or did we highlight how weak our schedule is? The A10 is not helping us or VCU.
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  #222  
Old 02-17-2017, 03:38 PM
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We dropped because we used to have 2 top-50 wins, and now we have none. Thanks, Rhody.
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  #223  
Old 02-17-2017, 06:00 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
We dropped because we used to have 2 top-50 wins, and now we have none. Thanks, Rhody.
We used to have three, actually. Vandy lost to dismal Mizzou.
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  #224  
Old 02-18-2017, 09:32 AM
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Is there any way to project our seed to some level of accuracy if we win out through Pittsburgh, because I think that's what we are going to do. If not, what are everyone's predictions on what our seed would be in that scenario?
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  #225  
Old 02-18-2017, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Hobopotamus1 View Post
Is there any way to project our seed to some level of accuracy if we win out through Pittsburgh, because I think that's what we are going to do. If not, what are everyone's predictions on what our seed would be in that scenario?
www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html

Fun to play with.

Winning out, beating LaSalle, Richmond, and VCU to win the A10 tourney puts our RPI at 15. We would be looking at a 6 seed, maybe a 5 at that point I would think.
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  #226  
Old 02-18-2017, 10:10 AM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html

Fun to play with.

Winning out, beating LaSalle, Richmond, and VCU to win the A10 tourney puts our RPI at 15. We would be looking at a 6 seed, maybe a 5 at that point I would think.
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All metrics considered and with the committee's focus on Top 50 wins, do you agree with my opinion right now we are likely a 9/10 with possibly of 8 or 11 and a uber longshot of just outside looking in?
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  #227  
Old 02-18-2017, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
All metrics considered and with the committee's focus on Top 50 wins, do you agree with my opinion right now we are likely a 9/10 with possibly of 8 or 11 and a uber longshot of just outside looking in?
So many "what ifs" make it reeeally tough to say with any confidence. But our RPI, KenPom, KPI, BPI, and Sagarin rankings at the moment have us solidly in. We have as many as 8 games left, so of course it's all speculation.

But as always, it depends on what the committee values, and what everyone else does. I'd sure like Rhody to win some games here.
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Old 02-18-2017, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
All metrics considered and with the committee's focus on Top 50 wins, do you agree with my opinion right now we are likely a 9/10 with possibly of 8 or 11 and a uber longshot of just outside looking in?
I agree.
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Old 02-19-2017, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post

As for Vandy, they are only favored to win 1 of their last 5... they play the top 3 teams in the SEC in there, S. Carolina at home, Kentucky away, FLA at home. They would have to go at least 3-2 for even a chance to scrape into the top 50, which means a win in one of these 3 games, and a road win at Tennessee who is also in the mid-50's RPI.

URI is more likely than Vandy to make it back into the top-50.
Wednesday night at 6:30, Vandy at Tennessee. If they win that, top 50 status may be assured.
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Old 02-19-2017, 10:48 AM
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After URI lost to Fordham, Jerry Palm dropped UD from an 8 seed to a 10 seed on his CBS bracketology. On his twitter he said it was not so much because URI dropped out of the top 50 but because URI dropped out of the bracket altogether.

Today he has URI back in the bracket as the last team in. He also still has Dayton as a 10 seed.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

WTF?

#fakenews #fourpinocchios

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Old 02-19-2017, 11:40 AM
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According to http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Vanderbilt.html if Vandy wins at Tennessee and vs Mississippi and loses their last two they are exactly at 50 RPI going into the SEC tournament
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Old 02-19-2017, 11:57 AM
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97.7% after yesterday's win.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-ba...s/bracketology
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  #233  
Old 02-19-2017, 12:44 PM
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During the BYU-St. Mary's game last night, there was a discussion about St. Mary's resume and chances at getting in. St. Mary's win against Dayton was arguably its best win, "depending on how the committee views Dayton."

Potentially having no top-50 wins makes me very nervous.

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Old 02-19-2017, 01:09 PM
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It should make you nervous, because UD can't sniff a locked bid yet. I hate to say it, but just about any regular season loss puts Flyers backs to the wall. Have to go at-least 3-1 to close regular season. At-least! Two regular season defeats would need to be offset by at-least a close loss in A10 title game, probably only to Rhody or VCU, after beating the other one in the Semi-final.

Otherwise, most of the other bubble teams would have to crash, as to keep Flyers afloat. The "lock" path is still narrow.
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Old 02-19-2017, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
It should make you nervous, because UD can't sniff a locked bid yet. I hate to say it, but just about any regular season loss puts Flyers backs to the wall. Have to go at-least 3-1 to close regular season. At-least! Two regular season defeats would need to be offset by at-least a close loss in A10 title game, probably only to Rhody or VCU, after beating the other one in the Semi-final.

Otherwise, most of the other bubble teams would have to crash, as to keep Flyers afloat. The "lock" path is still narrow.
I agree with this assessment. I don't like Palm but he is only guessing at what the committee would do.
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  #236  
Old 02-19-2017, 01:38 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Dayton.html

Fun to play with.

Winning out, beating LaSalle, Richmond, and VCU to win the A10 tourney puts our RPI at 15. We would be looking at a 6 seed, maybe a 5 at that point I would think.
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Even if we win out, I don't see us as any higher than a 6 Seed. We don't "pass the eye test" to get a better seed.
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Old 02-19-2017, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by T-Bone 84 View Post
Even if we win out, I don't see us as any higher than a 6 Seed. We don't "pass the eye test" to get a better seed.
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Agree 100%... call it "eye test," "smell test," meh league test" or anything
not applied to the P5 and you get pushed down a seed or two. So what!
When we got in as a five (Tulsa) we learned that seeding doesn't determine the final score.
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  #238  
Old 02-19-2017, 02:53 PM
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Even worse -- we actually were a four seed against Tulsa.
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Old 02-19-2017, 03:23 PM
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We were supposed to be a 5, but would've wound up playing 'at home'. Instead they bumped us to a 4 and sent us to Tulsa.

That loss really hurt.
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Old 02-19-2017, 03:33 PM
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Smile Palm is a pain

Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I agree with this assessment. I don't like Palm but he is only guessing at what the committee would do.
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Exactly! I don't much care for Jerry Palm myself; but the committee would tend to behave in that regard. So in fairness to mr. Palm, he probably is trying to reflect committee perspective.

And, no, UD is not exactly eye test impressing at the moment. That could change. I have a good feeling about a high performance on Tuesday night against George Mason....GO FLYERS.
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  #241  
Old 02-19-2017, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
Can Rhode Island and/or Vanderbilt get into the Top 50?
Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
No, we currently have zero Top 50 wins . . .


Well, lookie there:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...rpi/_/sort/RPI

50) Rhode Island
48 (tie) Vanderbilt

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Old 02-19-2017, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Glen Clark View Post
Well, lookie there:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...rpi/_/sort/RPI

50) Rhode Island
48 (tie) Vanderbilt

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I think we put too much emphasis on "top 50" wins mantra. The committee's nitty gritty report actually goes into much more detail and averages out RPI wins and losses. For instance, there is no way the committee is going to say a team that defeated number 50 RPI but no one else in the top 75 has a stronger resume than a team that has defeated 5 teams between 51 and 75.
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Old 02-19-2017, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Beatty Town Coach View Post
Exactly! I don't much care for Jerry Palm myself; but the committee would tend to behave in that regard. So in fairness to mr. Palm, he probably is trying to reflect committee perspective.

And, no, UD is not exactly eye test impressing at the moment. That could change. I have a good feeling about a high performance on Tuesday night against George Mason....GO FLYERS.
And Palm is one of the worst bracketologists out there. Look at bracket matrix and his history. I take everything he says with a grain of salt.
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Old 02-19-2017, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I agree with this assessment. I don't like Palm but he is only guessing at what the committee would do.
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True, they're all guessing, but I look at those who have been very good at it over time and Andy Bottoms of Assembly Call is the #1 bracketologist over the past 5 years. He has the Flyers at a 7 seed currently. Also, a bunch of high school kids entered the bracketology world last year from Delphi, Indiana and overwhelmingly kicked all the "experts" butts. They go by Delphi Bracketology. They also currently have the Flyers as a seven seed. Keep in mind these kids predicted 65 of the 68 teams seed lines either perfectly or within one seed line. That's impressive.
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by CoffeeCan View Post
If you figure team ranking of
1-4 = 1 seed
5-8 = 2 seed (and so on)

Then we need to be "ranked" by the committee no less than 28 to be considered for a 7 seed. And we all know how the committee loves to favor the bigger conference, so we really need to be a top 25 team in four weeks.

The AP poll just came out, and we are #31 (just behind VCU)

So, it is there for us if we play well.

However, barring a horrible stretch (which I do not see happening), even we lose twice in the regular season and early in the A10 tourney, are we going to drop out of the tourney? Unlikely. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

1. We can get a 7 seed (or even 6)
2. We will get in, barring a complete meltdown
3. Even if we drop, we will be an 11 seed? We were an 11 in 2009, 2014, and 2015. Obviously, we want to avoid the play in game but after 2014 will the committee even put us there again?

Looking at this from Coffeecan's perspective, should be an interesting reveal later this afternoon in the AP top 25. This week, UD won both as we know, a win at SLU that likely does little other than adds a victory on the road and "keep pace" as well as a home win over St Bonnies, who while decent, likely doesn't mean much to the uniformed press outside of A10 land who have no idea who Jay Adams is. So I would assume that UD keeps the 4 points from the 3 voters in last weeks poll, if not gain a few more votes from those 3, the question is how many, if any additional voters move UD into their top 25 this week potentially setting them up for a re-appearance in the final top 25 heading to Pittsburgh if they can manage to win out.

#20 Creighton lost at Seton Hall, but beat GTown at home
#21 South Carolina lost at home to Arkansas, and @ Vandy
#22 St Mary's won both, including a convincing win at BYU
#23 Maryland won at NWestern, but lost @ Wisky
#24 Butler cruised to 2 wins over bad teams
#25 ND cruised to 2 wins over bad teams

#26 Wichita St cruised to 2 wins over bad teams
#27 Xavier lost 2 road games against decent teams w/o Bluiet for either
#28 Northwestern lost at home to Maryland, beat a bad Rutgers team
#29 So Cal got crushed at UCLA
#30 VCU beat St joes and won @ Richmond
#31 UD
#32 M Tenn St & #33 Monmouth both won against poor teams
#33 Okie St won @ TCU and home over Oklahoma
#34 Vermont I'll assume won games over poor teams (not surprisingly, Feinstein is their 1 point)

So it seems like there are some votes to get from So Carolina, So Cal, perhaps Maryland or Northwestern and Xavier. How many of those votes can UD get, how many will Okie St pick up, who else enters the conversation on the back of somebody's ballot. If UD can work their way up to getting on 5 or more ballots this week, pick up wins over GMason and @ Davidson perhaps they'll find their way onto 20 or so ballots the following week and be right on the fringe, setting them up to take all off VCU's ballots (only 4 voters as of last week) the following week w/ a win over them and @ GW as well as finding their way onto half or more of the ballots the last week and slide their way into the top 25.

the big question for UD's hopes, aside from "can they win out" is how fluid are the rankings at this point? Is one loss or victory really going to change your perspective all that much? Should it change their perspective in comparison to 80% or so of the season that has already been played out? If UD can pick up some additional voters today, then I think they've got a shot, if its just the same 3 people, then likely no shot of getting ranked heading into Pittsburgh.

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  #246  
Old 02-20-2017, 09:48 AM
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By the way, up to 30th in the most recent dance card for those that care.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Medford View Post
By the way, up to 30th in the most recent dance card for those that care.
Sounds about right. Most knowledgeable bracketologists have Flyers at 7 or 8 seed. I think realistic upside potential is 6 seed and realistic downside is 10 seed. That's a wide spread of approx 14 lines on the S Curve.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:52 AM
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Not much difference between #6 thru #11. A #6 is usually an overseeded Power-5 team and a #11 is usually an underachieving Power-5 team with bite or a underseeded non Power-5 team. Its really all about matchups. The last three NCAA tourneys largely just that.

2014 - OSU with no mongo Evan turner type guy, we upset Cuse, but then an overrated Stanford and loaded Florida.

2015 - Boise was even talent, Providence overrated, Oklahoma was what we thought they were

2016 - Syracuse - matchup got us this time, couldnt make layups or defend

Im less concerned about our seed and more concerned about who we play and where we play it. Plenty of #5 seeds Id rather play than some #11s.
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  #249  
Old 02-20-2017, 11:13 AM
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This year's committee Equal representation. Perhaps this is always case.

Mark Hollis
Committee chair and director of athletics at Michigan State University
Mitch S. Barnhart, director of athletics, University of Kentucky
Janet Cone, director of athletics, University of North Carolina at Asheville
Tom Holmoe, director of athletics, Brigham Young University
Paul Krebs, vice president and director of athletics, University of New Mexico
Bernard Muir, director of athletics, Stanford University
Bruce Rasmussen, director of athletics, Creighton University
Peter Roby, director of athletics, Northeastern University
Jim Schaus, director of athletics, Ohio University
Kevin White, director of athletics, Duke University
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:13 AM
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I'm still scared poopless about what the committee did to us a couple years ago by having us the last team in when all the experts had us an 8 or 9 seed. I would feel a whole lot better if Rhode Island and Vanderbilt got back into the Top 50. Then beat VCU and we're in with a pretty good seed. I just don't see us beating both GW and Davidson on the road.
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:07 PM
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Dayton stays at 31, but picks up points from an additional 2 voters. VCU up to 26th and picking up points from 14 voters IIRC:; will likely be ranked next week when UD plays them if they win out this week though we probably want them to lose at Rhody
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:17 PM
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You have to think that the committee understands that Dayton is an experienced, veteran team -- the kind of team that can make a run in the tournament (although they would probably not admit that this is any kind of official criteria). It would be a shame if this Senior class was left out. Also, Dayton has not been at full strength most of the season and is just now getting back to full strength. Close losses to St. Mary's, Nebraska, and Northwestern might have different outcomes if we payed them today. I doubt many coaches would like to see Dayton in their bracket come March...
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Dayton has not been at full strength most of the season and is just now getting back to full strength. Close losses to St. Mary's, Nebraska, and Northwestern might have different outcomes if we played them today.
Injuries should be taken into account - and would be for a P-5 team. If our injuries are taken into account we should be in easily. I just don't trust the committee. The "gathering steam" comment for UCLA a couple years ago showed how crooked they are.
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:51 PM
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Dayton is undefeated at full strength.
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Old 02-20-2017, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Dayton is undefeated at full strength.
They are also winless. RIP Big Steve.
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  #256  
Old 02-20-2017, 03:08 PM
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CBS sports had Dayton has a 10 seed playing 7 seed Xavier in this week's update. A crock but interesting none the less.
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Old 02-20-2017, 03:25 PM
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So speaking of injuries, how will Xavier be viewed, now that they have injuries and may not be an NCAA team?
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Old 02-20-2017, 03:28 PM
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Originally Posted by RamodWaleskowski View Post
CBS sports had Dayton has a 10 seed playing 7 seed Xavier in this week's update. A crock but interesting none the less.
Palm=CBS Sports=Click Bait matchups
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Old 02-20-2017, 04:03 PM
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I don't think it's all that crazy. We're in the same geographic area. We were sent to the same city last year. It didn't work out because Wisconsin couldn't play Michigan State in the Round of 32. I don't think they'd restructure the bracket to match up any two teams, but they certainly wouldn't do anything to avoid the match up either.

If anything it's the only possible option. Dayton wouldn't play Northwestern in the Round of 64 because they've already played, USC can't play Oregon in the Round of 32, and Xavier can't play Seton Hall. Based on the bracketing rules, that's really the only match up that makes all the 7v10 games work.
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Old 02-20-2017, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
Dayton is undefeated at full strength.
I posted this on the other board, but here's the breakdown.

We are 7-2 while missing TWO starters. The two losses being to an RPI 16 St. Mary's by four points at home. And an RPI 74 Nebraska by two points on a neutral court. Our two starters missing for those two losses average a total of 26 points a game and 7 rebounds a game between them. If we are at full strength for those two games our whole season is different, plus we would have had a shot at UCLA to boost our RPI if nothing else.

We are 9-3 while missing one starter. A two point loss to RPI 37 Northwestern in Chicago. A stinker of a loss at UMass. And a 5 point loss at RPI 28 VCU.

We are 4-0 at full strength.

I know these sound like 'excuses', but the committee consideres injuries for the big boys all the time. If we keep winning, it would be hard to deny that we are a far better team now at full strength than when we lost four out of five of our losses.
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Old 02-20-2017, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by longtimefan View Post
I'm still scared poopless about what the committee did to us a couple years ago by having us the last team in when all the experts had us an 8 or 9 seed. I would feel a whole lot better if Rhode Island and Vanderbilt got back into the Top 50. Then beat VCU and we're in with a pretty good seed. I just don't see us beating both GW and Davidson on the road.
Per CBS...rpi is 27, good...sos is 69, not bad...only 5 losses, good...only 1 bad loss, not bad...1-3 vs.Top 50, fair.

I think UD is in comfortably based on that.

Obviously, just avoid any more bad losses, beating VCU would help the Top 50 record.

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Old 02-20-2017, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by jack72 View Post
So speaking of injuries, how will Xavier be viewed, now that they have injuries and may not be an NCAA team?
Perhaps my memory is failing me, but it seems like there have been more injury ending seasons to potential NCAA teams this year than I can recall. I saw Maryland lost a kid for the season that was averaging nearly 8ppg, MSU lost Eron Harris (remember when we were recruiting him what felt like 100 years ago), Xavier has lost their PG, and who knows what Bluiett's status is coming down the stretch. Creighton lost their PG. indiana lost their best player; Georgia (though likely not NCAA worthy, especially now) just lost their third leading scorer for the season, Florida lost an 8 & 6 big man the other day, VTech lost their best inside guy, and who knows how many other injuries have happened in the last month or so that will have a huge impact in march.

It has been crazy.
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Old 02-20-2017, 05:40 PM
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I generally don't care much about the top 25 polls, except that I know being in them can certainly garner you some extra media coverage which can go a long way in recruiting. I also know that somehow the committee does factor it in, although I don't think they say it publicly, so from those perspectives it can be meaningful. But purely from a accuracy standpoint I don't think its a great indicator.

However with all of that being said, can anyone tell me why Wichita St. is ranked #25 in both polls this week over teams like Dayton and/or VCU? If you look at their resume vs. those two schools it is not any better except that they have one less loss and have played more games resulting in a few more wins. Is there something in their resume that I don't see that the voters do? I'll like to hear what others think, especially those of you that are into the analytics.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask.../DAYTON/WICHST

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...son/VCU/WICHST

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Old 02-20-2017, 06:01 PM
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No bad losses and they are blowing people out
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Old 02-20-2017, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Gilchrist's Autograph 2 View Post
No bad losses and they are blowing people out
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But isn't that what SOS is for? Dayton and VCU's SOS is much better. Shouldn't Wichita St. being blowing out bad teams anyway?
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Old 02-20-2017, 06:57 PM
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Dayton solid according to dance card.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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Old 02-20-2017, 07:35 PM
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Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.

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Old 02-20-2017, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton solid according to dance card.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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I think we would be safely in if. The season ended today but the season does not end today. To be 100% , I think we need 5 more wins. 4 may do it but 5 is needed for the lock.
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.
So nobody *really* knows what metrics the selection committee will use, but Wichita is #13 in the KenPom rankings, with both a top-20 adjusted offense and top-20 adjusted defense rankings. They are #18 in ESPN's BPI.

I don't know how good they are, but they have some excellent objective rankings and I sure as heck would not want to see them in the first round.
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:45 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.
I disagree. It depends on what you value, and I personally like to look at how hard the game was to win rather than just whether or not a team is top 50 or top 100. Where and when you play can really make a difference.

Colorado State lost three starters at the midway point. They were actually pretty good when Wichita State beat them. Most bracketology people probably won't realize that, but the committee will. Or at least they should.

Northern Iowa isn't that good, but they play well at home. They're 8-3 at home, so winning there is harder to do than beating a 50-100 team at home. It's harder to win at Northern Iowa than it is to beat Michigan at home. Everyone who has played Michigan at home has beaten them (with one exception).

Loyola is 10-3 at home, so it's the same deal with them.

I'm not on the committee, but I actually like Wichita's proflile better than a lot of other teams who are on the bubble who have only beaten top fifty teams at home that aren't very good on the road.

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Old 02-20-2017, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by THirt View Post
So nobody *really* knows what metrics the selection committee will use, but Wichita is #13 in the KenPom rankings, with both a top-20 adjusted offense and top-20 adjusted defense rankings. They are #18 in ESPN's BPI.

I don't know how good they are, but they have some excellent objective rankings and I sure as heck would not want to see them in the first round.
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I'm not a huge advanced metrics guy but is it easier to be more efficient against bad competition or is this all factored into these metrics so it doesn't matter who you play?
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.
Wichita State's one major problem is their non con SOS. It's currently 182. The committee has consistently punished bubble teams for playing weak non con schedules. When your in a league like Wichita you better play a pretty strong non con because your conference isn't going to help you out much. That's why I think Archie and Neil have done a masterful job of putting together a non con schedule, currently 36 SOS.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.
Agree...I am having trouble seeing Wichita getting in...projected rpi of 37...projected sos of 151...that sos is really weak...expected 1-4 vs. Top 50...just not seeing it.

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Old 02-20-2017, 10:54 PM
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I have said this before, but the NCAA needs to come up with some sort of composite computer rating, that sort of averages all the existing computer ratings, and then just let that rating determine the at large teams.

There is too much room for crooked behavior by the committee. I think it would be great if there was no committee.
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Old 02-20-2017, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I have said this before, but the NCAA needs to come up with some sort of composite computer rating, that sort of averages all the existing computer ratings, and then just let that rating determine the at large teams.

There is too much room for crooked behavior by the committee. I think it would be great if there was no committee.
http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

Interesting that the team in the top 25 of the composite ranking with the highest standard deviation is Witchita State. Even the computers are conflicted regarding what to do with them.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:19 AM
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Originally Posted by TA111 View Post
When your in a league like Wichita you better play a pretty strong non con because your conference isn't going to help you out much. That's why I think Archie and Neil have done a masterful job of putting together a non con schedule, currently 36 SOS.
36 non con SOS is pretty impressive. Wonder what it would've been if Josh doesn't get hurt, we beat Nebraska as expected in the Wooden, and then play UCLA instead of Portland.
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Old 02-21-2017, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Wichita State has played six games vs the top 100 and won two. One of those two was #97 Colorado State.

I can't believe they are anywhere near the tournament right now.
It is hilarious that they are ranked. Terrible SOS and like you said, just 2 top-100 wins. We have 11!

I think the committee probably uses the top-100 metric more than the top-50. As has been stated, a top-75 win on the road is equal to a top-25 win at home. Think about MTSU's resume compared to ours. Pretty similar until you look at that top-100 win category.

Our road wins at Bama, SBU, and URI are HUGE and will pay big dividends come selection time. Davidson would also fit into that category should we be successful there.
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Old 02-21-2017, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton solid according to dance card.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
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I still think the DC will do a lot of sorting out in the coming editions before Selection Sunday.

I am most skeptical of: Providence, MTSU, Marquette, Wichita State, UNCW, Illinois State, and Georgia Tech.
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I still think the DC will do a lot of sorting out in the coming editions before Selection Sunday.

I am most skeptical of: Providence, MTSU, Marquette, Wichita State, UNCW, Illinois State, and Georgia Tech.
Illinois St lost it's best player for the year a little while back. They lost to Wichita St by 40 without him. The only reason Illinois St keeps winning is because of how bad the Valley is. I expect that Wichita St will be the only rep from the Valley barring an upset lost in the tournament finals.
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Illinois St lost it's best player for the year a little while back. They lost to Wichita St by 40 without him. The only reason Illinois St keeps winning is because of how bad the Valley is. I expect that Wichita St will be the only rep from the Valley barring an upset lost in the tournament finals.
If you're talking about McIntosh, he's back. He didn't play against Wichita State in the game where they got run out of the gym, but he's back now.
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
Agree...I am having trouble seeing Wichita getting in...projected rpi of 37...projected sos of 151...that sos is really weak...expected 1-4 vs. Top 50...just not seeing it.
Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I have said this before, but the NCAA needs to come up with some sort of composite computer rating, that sort of averages all the existing computer ratings, and then just let that rating determine the at large teams.

There is too much room for crooked behavior by the committee. I think it would be great if there was no committee.
The predictive computer rankings (Ken Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc) LOVE Wichita State. If that's what you want them to go off of, then Wichita State is looking at a #5 seed.

A few years ago when the committee too UCLA everyone went nuts and we had people saying that we need to have a computer do it. The problem is that the computers like that UCLA team, and I'm convinced that's the only reason the committee took them. And you know what UCLA did after they were selected?? They won, which is what the predictive computer rankings projected they would do.

I agree that it should be merit based and not predictive based. But using that as a reason to use the computers is kind of like saying "I need to lose wait. I need to eat more Big Macs." Most of hte popular computer metrics don't care about merit. They're trying to predict how good a team will actually play regardless of merits they've attained up to that point. They're saying Wichita State is a top twenty team. If you don't like that assessment, then why are you for using the the computers that giving us that assessment?
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
If you're talking about McIntosh, he's back. He didn't play against Wichita State in the game where they got run out of the gym, but he's back now.
Thanks, I was thinking he was out for the year for some reason.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
Thanks, I was thinking he was out for the year for some reason.
I think some commentator said during a game that he was out for the year. A lot of people were under that impression for whatever reason.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:44 AM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
I think some commentator said during a game that he was out for the year. A lot of people were under that impression for whatever reason.
A commentator definitely said it during the Wichita St game.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I still think the DC will do a lot of sorting out in the coming editions before Selection Sunday.

I am most skeptical of: Providence, MTSU, Marquette, Wichita State, UNCW, Illinois State, and Georgia Tech.
Adding Vanderbilt, Tennessee, USC, and Arkansas.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
36 non con SOS is pretty impressive. Wonder what it would've been if Josh doesn't get hurt, we beat Nebraska as expected in the Wooden, and then play UCLA instead of Portland.
According to RPI Wizard, a W over Nebraska, then an L to UCLA and an L to Va. Tech would've left us at 27th in the RPI at 19-6. We are currently 27th at 20-5.

Change that to a W over Va. Tech in the Third Place Game, and we would be 20th in the RPI.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:13 PM
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Someone in another thread posted we need 5 wins the rest of the way to be a lock. I agree. Anyone who thinks we're close to a lock needs to take a closer look. The advanced metrics seem to like us and we have a gaudy record. However, facts only get twisted for the Power 5/Big East. Right now we have one tenuous Top 50 win. Depending on Rhode Island performance and a VCU win we could have 4. We need Vandy and Rhody to finish strong. We do not have a huge win away from UD Arena to hang our cap on.

So, i can tell you right now, we are out if we lose the VCU game and dont win the A-10 Tournament. Win GMU,VCU,@George Washington and lose @Davidson and win 2 in Pittsburgh we are in. Im probably jaded from 2 years ago, in fact i know i am. It would be a **** shame if these Seniors had to play in the NIT.

At the end of the day i think we'll make it. In my opinion winning @Davidson is the key. They cannot stop Pollard inside, he will eat them alive. And Cooke and Kyle can do their work on the only 2 scoring threats they have, Gibbs and Aldridge.

Prediction: Beat GMU,Beat Davidson,Beat VCU, Lose GW. Win the A-10 Tournament. #9 Seed.

We will drop the #1 seed and make the Final Four. After that who knows.

Bookmark this and tell me how smart i am at the end of March.
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  #288  
Old 02-21-2017, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by BRob2Perryman3 View Post
So, i can tell you right now, we are out if we lose the VCU game and dont win the A-10 Tournament.

Prediction: Beat GMU,Beat Davidson,Beat VCU, Lose GW. Win the A-10 Tournament. #9 Seed.

We will drop the #1 seed and make the Final Four. After that who knows.

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Old 02-21-2017, 03:23 PM
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by redbengal View Post
36 non con SOS is pretty impressive. Wonder what it would've been if Josh doesn't get hurt, we beat Nebraska as expected in the Wooden, and then play UCLA instead of Portland.
Think what it could have been if we would use the 15/15 home-road/neutral scheduling philosophy.
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
The predictive computer rankings (Ken Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc) LOVE Wichita State. If that's what you want them to go off of, then Wichita State is looking at a #5 seed.

A few years ago when the committee too UCLA everyone went nuts and we had people saying that we need to have a computer do it. The problem is that the computers like that UCLA team, and I'm convinced that's the only reason the committee took them. And you know what UCLA did after they were selected?? They won, which is what the predictive computer rankings projected they would do.

I agree that it should be merit based and not predictive based. But using that as a reason to use the computers is kind of like saying "I need to lose wait. I need to eat more Big Macs." Most of hte popular computer metrics don't care about merit. They're trying to predict how good a team will actually play regardless of merits they've attained up to that point. They're saying Wichita State is a top twenty team. If you don't like that assessment, then why are you for using the the computers that giving us that assessment?
I think I would prefer that the merit-based computer models be used, instead of the predictive models, as past results are not always indicative of future performance. What you have done, not what you might do in the future, should be the basis of the decision-making process.

And I do not like computer models that use margin of victory in their calculations. I can understand maybe using mov up to around maybe a 10 point victory. Beyond that, using mov would encourage running up the score, and running up the score is bad sportsmanship IMO.

I think very few people in the world understand why exactly the committee does what it does.

Look at 2015, all of the bracketology experts had UD easily in as around an 8, UD was actually an 11, the very last team in the field. How in the world does that happen?!?!

The committee is inconsistent and shows p5-favoritism.

With a computer making the picks, everybody in the country would pretty much know where they stand. There would be very little drama on Selection Sunday, during the selection show. That is the way things should be.

Scheduling would also be easier as the playing field would be level, and teams would know what is/is not valued, and what is necessary in order to make the tournament.

Right now, everything is just one big guessing game.

As things stand now though, IMO, the committee has a very outsized role in who is in or out. Things should not be this way.
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:53 PM
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The Davidson game will be an interesting test for Dayton. They have not defended the slip screen well at all - see St Mary's & Northwestern. That game out of all the rest scares me the most.
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  #293  
Old 02-21-2017, 06:18 PM
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Originally Posted by m21eagle45 View Post
A commentator definitely said it during the Wichita St game.
It was a mid major game so he was probably just reading it off of a SID's notes so I blame the SID!
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Old 02-21-2017, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I think I would prefer that the merit-based computer models be used, instead of the predictive models, as past results are not always indicative of future performance. What you have done, not what you might do in the future, should be the basis of the decision-making process.

And I do not like computer models that use margin of victory in their calculations. I can understand maybe using mov up to around maybe a 10 point victory. Beyond that, using mov would encourage running up the score, and running up the score is bad sportsmanship IMO.

I think very few people in the world understand why exactly the committee does what it does.

Look at 2015, all of the bracketology experts had UD easily in as around an 8, UD was actually an 11, the very last team in the field. How in the world does that happen?!?!

The committee is inconsistent and shows p5-favoritism.

With a computer making the picks, everybody in the country would pretty much know where they stand. There would be very little drama on Selection Sunday, during the selection show. That is the way things should be.

Scheduling would also be easier as the playing field would be level, and teams would know what is/is not valued, and what is necessary in order to make the tournament.

Right now, everything is just one big guessing game.

As things stand now though, IMO, the committee has a very outsized role in who is in or out. Things should not be this way.
I don't think we should even play the games anymore. Just have a recruiting battle and let the computers tell us how everybody does and who wins the Championships. So this year we are A10 runner-ups because the computers all said URI was supposed to be the best team in the A10.
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  #295  
Old 02-21-2017, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
I think I would prefer that the merit-based computer models be used, instead of the predictive models, as past results are not always indicative of future performance. What you have done, not what you might do in the future, should be the basis of the decision-making process.

And I do not like computer models that use margin of victory in their calculations. I can understand maybe using mov up to around maybe a 10 point victory. Beyond that, using mov would encourage running up the score, and running up the score is bad sportsmanship IMO.

I think very few people in the world understand why exactly the committee does what it does.

Look at 2015, all of the bracketology experts had UD easily in as around an 8, UD was actually an 11, the very last team in the field. How in the world does that happen?!?!

The committee is inconsistent and shows p5-favoritism.

With a computer making the picks, everybody in the country would pretty much know where they stand. There would be very little drama on Selection Sunday, during the selection show. That is the way things should be.

Scheduling would also be easier as the playing field would be level, and teams would know what is/is not valued, and what is necessary in order to make the tournament.

Right now, everything is just one big guessing game.

As things stand now though, IMO, the committee has a very outsized role in who is in or out. Things should not be this way.
Once again you're supporting a system that is far less likely to produce the results that you're saying you want.

The merit rankings will favor the power five a lot more than the predictive rankings simply because they have more chances to beat good teams at home. Ken Pom has both Wichita and Saint Mary's in the top 15, and SMU at #17, and Cincinnati at #22. It also has Dayton at #33, and Houston of all teams at #40 (not sure I understand that one). No merit based computer system would have any of those teams ranked anywhere close to that.

The biggest problem I have with the predictive rankings are that they don't really differentiate between a one point win and a two point loss, even though one is a win and the other is a loss. But, the biggest asset to the predictive polls is that it indicates who some of the better teams are that people may miss if they're only looking at things on the surface. Now, I don't believe Wichita State to be a top fifteen team, but I certainly believe them to be a top forty team. Easily. Even though their surface merit doesn't indicate it.

The best thing about the merit rankings is that it rewards you for beating good teams. But, the two biggest problems with the merit rankings is that it creates a huge circumstantial advantage for the power conferences, which is something you indicated that you wanted to avoid. Again, going to a merit based system to eliminate this circumstantial advantage is like going on a Big Mac diet to lose wait. It makes it worse.

The other huge problem is that the merit rankings do not identify games against teams outside the top fifty that are hard to win. Let's look at Wichita State. They won at Colorado State before Colorado State lost three of their starters for the season. At the time, Colorado State was actually a good team, and that was an impressive win. No merit ranking would identify that as a good win. Wichita has also won at Northern Iowa, at Loyola, and at Evansville. Now, those aren't going to be identified as quality wins by a merit ranking system because they're not quality teams, but the reality is those three teams are a combined 28-7 at home when they're not playing Wichita State.

Let's compare that to a team from the Big Ten who beats Michigan at home, or a team from the Big Twelve that beats TCU at home. Those are being listed as quality wins. The reality is that Michigan, while clearly better than Loyola, Evansville, and Northern Iowa, has still only won one road game this year. TCU has only won two. Beating those two teams at home is actually easier than beating Northern Iowa or Loyola on the road, yet a merit ranking would give credit for the former and not the latter.

That's why when a team like Hawaii beats Cal, or a team like UALR beats Purdue, which both teams did in the NCAA Tournament last year, it's not surprising. Neither of those teams won a "quality game" as the merit rankings would define, but they both won multiple games that were harder to win than any of hte games that Purdue or Cal won. Hawaii won at UC Irvine. Cal didn't come close to winning a game as difficult as that. They did beat better teams, but they were all at home and hte vast majority of them were against teams that had losing records on the road.

The merit rankings don't pick up on that. That's why I think you need a committee to look at both. Now, I think the committee needs to do a much better job at looking at both, but still, it's better than a merit based ranking system that will all but assuredly cut out the non power conference teams.
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Old 02-21-2017, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
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Im high on life. All-natural baby.

Go Flyers!!
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Old 02-21-2017, 09:45 PM
Rick Scaia Rick Scaia is offline
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Quick question... is there any place with access to basically the raw game result data for every D-I game played this year? Just teams, venue, final score. I have a growing itch in the back of my brain, and this would help me to scratch it.

I mean, there must be for so many different sites to generate so many of their own unique power ratings (including UD Pride's own Most Accurate RPI Ever)... but I'm talking the underlying database in the public domain that I can do my own calculations upon.

I have no illusions about re-inventing the wheel or anything. But this year is shaping up to be the year that something even more fishy than usual happens, and the committee will be able to hide behind "Well, this year, we finally admitted we're just using whatever the hell criteria we want, so don't get mad at us." And I want to -- if at all possible -- have a tool where I can play with various weights and values to see if there is ANY rhyme or reason to their final bracket, in an attempt to "hold them to" the same criteria in future years.

If the same group of people seem to apply the same sort of criteria in future years, then fine, maybe we can't complain. But if we can reverse engineer their criteria in 2017, and they do something totally different in 2018, we'll be able to call them on their demonstrably flawed process. Dance Card has been an awesome experiment (and incredibly accurate) over the past decade, but the committee has pre-announced they're completely changing the game this year; I'd like to try something to keep on top of their ability to stay consistent.

So yeah: if anybody has any ideas where I can get that sort of database, I'd love to be pointed in the right direction. Even the same sort of data for the most recent few seasons would be huge. Thanks in advance....



Rick
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  #298  
Old 02-21-2017, 10:10 PM
springborofan springborofan is offline
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
Quick question... is there any place with access to basically the raw game result data for every D-I game played this year? Just teams, venue, final score. I have a growing itch in the back of my brain, and this would help me to scratch it.

I mean, there must be for so many different sites to generate so many of their own unique power ratings (including UD Pride's own Most Accurate RPI Ever)... but I'm talking the underlying database in the public domain that I can do my own calculations upon.

I have no illusions about re-inventing the wheel or anything. But this year is shaping up to be the year that something even more fishy than usual happens, and the committee will be able to hide behind "Well, this year, we finally admitted we're just using whatever the hell criteria we want, so don't get mad at us." And I want to -- if at all possible -- have a tool where I can play with various weights and values to see if there is ANY rhyme or reason to their final bracket, in an attempt to "hold them to" the same criteria in future years.

If the same group of people seem to apply the same sort of criteria in future years, then fine, maybe we can't complain. But if we can reverse engineer their criteria in 2017, and they do something totally different in 2018, we'll be able to call them on their demonstrably flawed process. Dance Card has been an awesome experiment (and incredibly accurate) over the past decade, but the committee has pre-announced they're completely changing the game this year; I'd like to try something to keep on top of their ability to stay consistent.

So yeah: if anybody has any ideas where I can get that sort of database, I'd love to be pointed in the right direction. Even the same sort of data for the most recent few seasons would be huge. Thanks in advance....
Rick
When you get it and run your calculations. I want to pick your brain before I make up my NCAA pool picks!
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  #299  
Old 02-21-2017, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by xubrew View Post
The merit rankings don't pick up on that. That's why I think you need a committee to look at both. Now, I think the committee needs to do a much better job at looking at both, but still, it's better than a merit based ranking system that will all but assuredly cut out the non power conference teams.
Sounds reasonable...why doesn't the committee do this then?

Rick is correct, the committee just does whatever they want, and you just have to hope that you are on the right side of the bubble.

Chris R. IINM, seemed to come to the same conclusion a year or two ago: the committee just does whatever they want, there is no consistency.

Last edited by ud2; 02-21-2017 at 10:23 PM..
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  #300  
Old 02-22-2017, 01:43 AM
LIBob LIBob is offline
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Originally Posted by Rick Scaia View Post
Quick question... is there any place with access to basically the raw game result data for every D-I game played this year? Just teams, venue, final score. I have a growing itch in the back of my brain, and this would help me to scratch it.
http://www.masseyratings.com/scores....2017&sub=11590
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