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  #1  
Old 03-12-2017, 03:31 PM
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Why NCAA Draw Matters So Much

The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.

In Dayton's 2014 Elite 8 run, beat #19 Ohio State (under-seeded), #18 Syracuse (over-seeded), #34 Stanford (under-seeded), and lost to #3 FL (correctly seeded). Dayton did not beat a top 16 team on its way to the Elite 8!

In Dayton's 2015 Round of 32 run, beat #47 Boise State, beat #27 Providence, and lost to #11 Oklahoma. Dayton did not beat a top 25 team on it way to the Round of 32!

In Dayton's 2016 NCAA, lost to #27 Syracuse.

So the last 3 years 5-3 record the difference between playing top and average teams is dramatic. Dayton is 2-2 versus top 25 teams and 3-1 versus teams 26-50. Breaking-down the top 25 wins/losses, Dayton is 2-0 versus teams 16-25 (Ohio State and Syracuse 2014) and 0-2 versus top 15 teams (Oklahoma 2015 and FL 2014).

Draw and Match-ups matter so much in the NCAA.

Let's hope Dayton does not Wichita State, equivalent of playing a 2 seed in the first round!?!?!?!?

To get to the Sweet 16 this year, Dayton likely will have to beat a top 10 team (and hopefully not 2 in a row if matched-up with Wichita State).

*All numbers according to kenpom.
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  #2  
Old 03-12-2017, 04:15 PM
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A first-round matchup with Seton Hall would be fantastic.
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Old 03-12-2017, 07:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.
LOL. So we avoid the 8 seed only to have Wichita lowered to an 10. Are they that good ruechalgrin or could kenpom have it wrong this time?

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Old 03-12-2017, 07:43 PM
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This will be a good test for Ken Pom. If Wichita State goes on a tear and rips up Dayton and then Kentucky, his credibility rises in my mind.

But his stuff still gives me a major headache though.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:06 PM
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Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.

Dayton must beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky so beat a total of 12 to get to Sweet 16. Even a 16 seed would versus Villanova would get #1 Villanova and then a #28 so 29 total.

Travesty. Witchita State is really good. Dayton has a chance, but wow!

Dayton 25% to win and supposed to lose 77-70 according to kenpom.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.

Dayton must beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky so beat a total of 12 to get to Sweet 16. Even a 16 seed would versus Villanova would get #1 Villanova and then a #28 so 29 total.

Travesty. Witchita State is really good. Dayton has a chance, but wow!

Dayton 25% to win and supposed to lose 77-70 according to kenpom.
Rue, have you ever seen how a full bracket by kenpom would work out? Would they normally be exceptional picking them right to the finals, or at least the first 2 to 4 rounds?
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:17 PM
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Let's take one game at a time. Indy will be UD West, you know it and so do I. At this point we are not going to get the Little Sisters of the Poor as an opponent. I hope our Flyers are totally ****ed off and ready to play on Friday. Somehow I think they will be!
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:23 PM
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I am a big Kenpom fan, but where it breaks down is when you play in a conference when every team you play (other than Illinois State) has an rpi of 145 or higher.

That would be the equivalent of playing the bottom of our conference LaSalle through Duquesne along with Rhode Island in our conference where Rhode Island represents Illinois State. Our efficiency numbers would likely increase as well.

They are good and well coached, but being a 7 point underdog is just what this team needs to get their edge back.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:25 PM
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We need to win the first one and it's clear sailing to the sweet 16, after all we're 4 for 4 in our last 4 games against Kentucky's big two teams and haven't lost to either in this century.
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  #10  
Old 03-12-2017, 08:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
Rue, have you ever seen how a full bracket by kenpom would work out? Would they normally be exceptional picking them right to the finals, or at least the first 2 to 4 rounds?
Great question, I have not.

But #40 Xavier has to beat #45 Maryland and then #19 FLA St. to get to Sweet 16.

Dayton has to beat #8 Wichita State and then #4 Kentucky.

Rather have been an 11 where Xavier is. This is disgusting.

Dayton's top 25 kenpom wins since 2002, 13 wins (may have missed some). 7 Home Wins, 5 Neutral, and 1 Away.

Dayton HAS BEATEN 1 TOP 10 KENPOM TEAM IN THE 15 YEARS SINCE KENPOM HAS EXISTED.

2003 = #15 Marquette Home
2003 = #17 St. Joe's Home
2007 = #20 Louisville Neutral
2008 = #8 Louisville Away
2008 = #22 Pittsburgh Home
2009 = #21 Marquette Home
2009 = #20 Xavier Home
2009 = #11 West Virginia Neutral
2010 = #18 Xavier Home
2012 = #12 St. Louis Home
2014 = #20 Gonzaga Neutral
2014 = #19 Ohio State Neutral
2014 = #18 Syracuse Neutral
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:27 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton got the most difficult draw to reach the Sweet 16. It would have been better to be be a 16 seed.
Keep reaching the sweet 16, then we have room to complain.

"We deserve to be in the tournament."
"We want a favorable seed."

First, we need to sustain the momentum of the past 3-4 years.

Right now, take care of business against WS. Then move on.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:32 PM
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If UD plays no defense for a third game in a row and rebounds like a brownie troop, we'll be one-and-done no matter who we play. Its all about us and what we do -- or dont do. Right now, we are playing with no toughness, passion, and urgency. GW and Davidson stole our manhood in the first 10-15 minutes of the game. I dare the Flyers to try that recipe against Wichita b/c it will be a sizeable beatdown.

We got to get our heads out of our butt between now and Friday. Who we play is almost irrelevant at this point. We're simply not good enough to beat anybody by just rolling the ball on the court. We have sizable deficiencies. Only when we sell out completely and give a herculean effort do we look and play our best.

Its up to the players. Nobody can do it for them. They will get exactly what they deserve out of this year's NCAA tournament. Just like last season's tourney and the prior ones.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90 View Post
I am a big Kenpom fan, but where it breaks down is when you play in a conference when every team you play (other than Illinois State) has an rpi of 145 or higher.

That would be the equivalent of playing the bottom of our conference LaSalle through Duquesne along with Rhode Island in our conference where Rhode Island represents Illinois State. Our efficiency numbers would likely increase as well.

They are good and well coached, but being a 7 point underdog is just what this team needs to get their edge back.
Kenpom adjusts for opponents you are playing. Anyway, tough draw ...
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Chris R View Post
If UD plays no defense for a third game in a row and rebounds like a brownie troop, we'll be one-and-done no matter who we play. Its all about us and what we do -- or dont do. Right now, we are playing with no toughness, passion, and urgency. GW and Davidson stole our manhood in the first 10-15 minutes of the game. I dare the Flyers to try that recipe against Wichita b/c it will be a sizeable beatdown.

We got to get our heads out of our butt between now and Friday. Who we play is almost irrelevant at this point. We're simply not good enough to beat anybody by just rolling the ball on the court. We have sizable deficiencies. Only when we sell out completely and give a herculean effort do we look and play our best.

Its up to the players. Nobody can do it for them. They will get exactly what they deserve out of this year's NCAA tournament. Just like last season's tourney and the prior ones.
Exactly. The talent is there.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:39 PM
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Archie said this team plays best when their backs are up against the wall. I think this draw definitely puts their backs up against the wall...
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:39 PM
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Would you rather be 11 seed Xavier (#40 kenpom) playing #45 Maryland then #19 Florida State or the 7 seed Dayton (#37 kenpom) playing #8 Wichita State then #4 Kentucky?

Dayton will play well Friday, but tough road ...

BTW, Wichita State got screwed, even CBS saying it.

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Old 03-12-2017, 08:44 PM
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Would we all feel better if WSU was the 7 seed and we were the 10?
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
Would we all feel better if WSU was the 7 seed and we were the 10?
You know, that's interesting. I feel we were overseeded and they were underseeded. What if we got them where they were an 8 and we were a 9? I think we'd all be saying "Well, we made our own bed by losing those last two games so let's sleep in it". I think both us and them would be more accepting of it even though then we would be playing a one seed in the second round.
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Old 03-12-2017, 08:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Smitty10 View Post
You know, that's interesting. I feel we were overseeded and they were underseeded.

How so? Our resume is much better than theirs. We have 6 wins over NCAA tournament teams, they have none.

Wich State may prove to be the better team, but Dayton's resume is better, and it's not even close. The seeding is correct. In fact, the argument could be made that Wich State is overseeded.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:08 PM
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We wouldn't have a problem with WSU's seed if they were playing one of the other 7s.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:08 PM
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A couple weeks ago many people wrote WSU played a bad schedule and would be left out. Now draw them and it is a tough draw. That is a very winnable game. Great that are Flyers exceeded most expectations with a 7 seed. Good respect from the committee.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Kenpom adjusts for opponents you are playing. Anyway, tough draw ...
Not enough. Them being ranked #8 nationally is a joke. I'm not saying they won't beat us. But beating up on the bottom half of Division I shouldn't be the basis of a top 10 ranking.

They have zero wins over tournament teams and only played 3 of them, including a 17 point loss at home to Oklahoma State who is a 10 seed in the tournament.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:31 PM
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Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 150-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.

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Old 03-12-2017, 09:35 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
Agree!

Kenpom.com has 25% chance to win; fivethirtyeight.com has 31% chance to win because Dayton closer to Indy than Wichita to Indy. I think crowd if LOWD gives more of advantage so think really 35%-40% to win the game as likely will be semi-home. I respect the hell out of Wichita State and going to be tough.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s-predictions/
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:41 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
I wouldn't underestimate how WSU travels though. Last year they were in Providence, and I was there, and they had the best following of the 8 schools and that included Duke.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by The Fly View Post
Here's one thing to like about this draw: Wichita is more than 600 miles from Indy; Dayton is only about 100 away; Lexington is 300-plus. All three fan bases travel extremely well, but Wichita at more than twice the distance might see some impact on support. Couple that with Kentucky fans likely rooting for Dayton (probably see us as the easier second-round draw) and we can create an environment similar to Columbus in 2015. That was as close to a home-game feel as you'll ever get short of a First Four game.
Lexington is only 190 miles from Indy.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:49 PM
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Scoochie Kendall and Kyle...

have won 5 NCAA tournament games, been to the Elite 8. They've been to Memphis. They want to go back. They play better when it matters. As long as we don't make the defensive mistakes they've made the last two games when apparently they were satisfied with the A10 regular season title - they won't lose. New season - Home game.

Last year was an anomaly. Kendall wasn't 100% against Syracuse. I am glad we are the underdog. They will come out firing. Indy will be like it was in Columbus for Providence. I can still remember Cooley whining about it.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:50 PM
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You're right. Fixed above.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:51 PM
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ESPN interviewing committee member. He said Witchita State was their toughest seed decision. Lack of top wins hurt them. Also said seeds moved very little during weekend. I interpret that to mean UD was at 7 before Davidson loss.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:53 PM
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So the committee knew it was probably going to screw somebody so who can we do that to? UD and UK.
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Old 03-12-2017, 09:58 PM
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Reminds me of when we got a 4 seed because they didn't want to send Norte Dame to Spokane. Tulsa was too low...we were too high.

I can't wait to beat Kentucky again though.
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:35 PM
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How can you not love this opportunity?

* Kentucky, Louisville, Northern Kentucky, Michigan fans all in Indy with us. Oklahoma State and Witchita State are the visitors.
* St. Patty's Day
* 7:10 pm tip off
* This team plays it's best against ranked teams.

We get the chance to play a 20/22 ranked team rewarded with an opportunity to play #8. I was in Flanagan's Pub watching the game with a friend and the late Pat Flanagan when Dayton last played Kentucky and knocked them off at US Bank Arena. This team has done its most damage as an 11 seed in the tourney. I see this as less of a variance than us being an 11 and them being a 6 seed.

Make it through this weekend and take over Memphis again. Looking at the other side Cincinnati could be an Elite 8 match up.

I am so jacked up about this match up. I rather have Xavier in their spot, but I will take this opportunity and hope we advance to keep our SEC wins track record going.

Like Chris R said - It's all about the team. They control their own destiny.
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Old 03-12-2017, 10:39 PM
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Originally Posted by priceg75 View Post
Not enough. Them being ranked #8 nationally is a joke. I'm not saying they won't beat us. But beating up on the bottom half of Division I shouldn't be the basis of a top 10 ranking.

They have zero wins over tournament teams and only played 3 of them, including a 17 point loss at home to Oklahoma State who is a 10 seed in the tournament.
Their best win is against Illinois St. they haven't beaten anyone nearly as good as VCU or Rhode Island. I don't think they are battle tested.
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Old 03-12-2017, 11:02 PM
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Love the Greg Marshall quotes.

“They’ve got to get rid of as many non-power five (conference) teams as possible,” WSU coach Gregg Marshall said. “They pit us against Dayton. They had VCU against St. Mary’s. I’m just glad we’re in.”

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college...138088028.html
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Old 03-12-2017, 11:47 PM
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Dayton was 33.8% to beat Ohio State
Dayton was 28.8% to beat Syracuse
Dayton is 25% to beat Wichita State.

So you are saying we got a chance.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
How so? Our resume is much better than theirs. We have 6 wins over NCAA tournament teams, they have none.

Correction: Wichita State has one win over an NCAA tournament team: South Dakota State (18-16, RPI 155).
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Dayton was 33.8% to beat Ohio State
Dayton was 28.8% to beat Syracuse
Dayton is 25% to beat Wichita State.

So you are saying we got a chance.
Absolutely we do...and I'm confident we'll win.

Sick of Jay Bilas, who said a Dayton victory would be an upset. That's a stretch. Then again, he's in Boeheim's britches talking about the Syracuse snub too. Go back to your P5 bubble, Jay.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by FlyerGuyer View Post
Correction: Wichita State has one win over an NCAA tournament team: South Dakota State (18-16, RPI 155).
Thanks for that. They beat a 16 seed. I didn't catch that either.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
Absolutely we do...and I'm confident we'll win.

Sick of Jay Bilas, who said a Dayton victory would be an upset. That's a stretch. Then again, he's in Boeheim's britches talking about the Syracuse snub too. Go back to your P5 bubble, Jay.
I think he was saying we got screwed. Vegas has us as a 6.5 pt underdog so I would say he is correct in that us winning would be an upset.
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Old 03-13-2017, 09:56 AM
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FWIW, the 3 other 10 seeds were Marquette, VCU, and Oklahoma State.
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by CE80 View Post
I think he was saying we got screwed. Vegas has us as a 6.5 pt underdog so I would say he is correct in that us winning would be an upset.
No, his comments were strictly about Wich St. Said they should be a 5 seed. He then threw UD a bone and name-dropped Schoochie and Charles Cooke to appease the Flyer Faithful.

He also says the same thing about every conf tourney champion: "they really playing well...so he picks them"...hell yeah they're playing well! In most cases they won 3/4 games in 3/4 days! He has Rhody winning 3 games. Personally I think Rhody will be lucky to win 1 game.
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar View Post
No, his comments were strictly about Wich St. Said they should be a 5 seed. He then threw UD a bone and name-dropped Schoochie and Charles Cooke to appease the Flyer Faithful.

He also says the same thing about every conf tourney champion: "they really playing well...so he picks them"...hell yeah they're playing well! In most cases they won 3/4 games in 3/4 days! He has Rhody winning 3 games. Personally I think Rhody will be lucky to win 1 game.
Rhody looked good in Pittsburgh.
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Old 03-13-2017, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
The difference among potential 8/9 seeds is dramatic. Wichita State is #8 overall in the country (according to kenpom) whereas Seton Hall is #53. Dayton #37 would be supposed to lose by about 8 versus Wichita State with a 15% chance to win; whereas Dayton probably would be supposed to win by about 2 with a 65% chance to win versus Seton Hall.

In Dayton's 2014 Elite 8 run, beat #19 Ohio State (under-seeded), #18 Syracuse (over-seeded), #34 Stanford (under-seeded), and lost to #3 FL (correctly seeded). Dayton did not beat a top 16 team on its way to the Elite 8!

In Dayton's 2015 Round of 32 run, beat #47 Boise State, beat #27 Providence, and lost to #11 Oklahoma. Dayton did not beat a top 25 team on it way to the Round of 32!

In Dayton's 2016 NCAA, lost to #27 Syracuse.

So the last 3 years 5-3 record the difference between playing top and average teams is dramatic. Dayton is 2-2 versus top 25 teams and 3-1 versus teams 26-50. Breaking-down the top 25 wins/losses, Dayton is 2-0 versus teams 16-25 (Ohio State and Syracuse 2014) and 0-2 versus top 15 teams (Oklahoma 2015 and FL 2014).

Draw and Match-ups matter so much in the NCAA.

Let's hope Dayton does not Wichita State, equivalent of playing a 2 seed in the first round!?!?!?!?

To get to the Sweet 16 this year, Dayton likely will have to beat a top 10 team (and hopefully not 2 in a row if matched-up with Wichita State).

*All numbers according to kenpom.
All this talk about Ken Pomeroy. Are his rankings really so much better than everybody else's rankings? I have no idea if his rankings are so much better than everybody else.
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:12 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2 View Post
All this talk about Ken Pomeroy. Are his rankings really so much better than everybody else's rankings? I have no idea if his rankings are so much better than everybody else.
Since I'm not a big advanced metrics guy either I have a question. Does every team start at the same spot when the season begins in Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc. or is there a pre-season baseline based on past performance, recruiting, etc.?
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
Since I'm not a big advanced metrics guy either I have a question. Does every team start at the same spot when the season begins in Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc. or is there a pre-season baseline based on past performance, recruiting, etc.?
Preseason baseline influenced by players returning, etc. Now totally based upon results. Kenpom had Dayton at #37 preseason and ended up the year at #36.

BTW, all top 40 kenpom teams got in with the exception of Clemson #36.

All top 64 kenpom teams got in with the following 12 exceptions so 52/64:

#36 Clemson
#41 TCU
#42 Indiana
#46 Texas Tech
#47 Utah
#49 Houston
#50 Syracuse
#51 Illinois State
#54 Alabama
#57 Georgia
#58 Cal
#62 Tenn
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Old 03-13-2017, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ruechalgrin View Post
Preseason baseline influenced by players returning, etc. Now totally based upon results. Kenpom had Dayton at #37 preseason and ended up the year at #36.

BTW, all top 40 kenpom teams got in with the exception of Clemson #36.

All top 64 kenpom teams got in with the following 12 exceptions so 52/64:

#36 Clemson
#41 TCU
#42 Indiana
#46 Texas Tech
#47 Utah
#49 Houston
#50 Syracuse
#51 Illinois State
#54 Alabama
#57 Georgia
#58 Cal
#62 Tenn
So once the season starts those pre-season rankings are wiped out and everyone starts at the same exact spot?
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Old 03-13-2017, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by CT Flyer View Post
So once the season starts those pre-season rankings are wiped out and everyone starts at the same exact spot?
Progresses through season where titled more and more to actual results and away from baseline and about January 1st of every year it is totally based on actual results (I could have the date slightly off). But at this point the rankings are 100% earned based upon results in the 2016-2017 season, so totally objective.
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