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03-12-2014, 11:03 AM
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Conferences don't win bids Teams do
I finally broke down and started paying for the DDN again. I'll probably drop it in May and renew again next august, but I digress.
Jerry Palm was interviewed by DDN and stated clearly:
Originally Posted by Jerry Palm
"Palm said the committee also doesn’t consider what conference a team is from, so the idea that the committee wouldn’t take six teams from the A-10 is a false one.
“It’s not about the conference,” he said. “The conference never comes up.”
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http://www.mydaytondailynews.com/new...ondaily_launch
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03-12-2014, 12:21 PM
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A great article further confirming no concern over conferences. A good video on the main basketball page as well.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...tion-committee
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03-12-2014, 12:34 PM
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Conferences are the Elephant in the Room. Of course, no one directly mentions conference affiliation.
They don't have to.
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03-12-2014, 12:38 PM
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I like what he said about the criteria. That bodes well for us. What doesn't is the idea of 'groups of 8'. We don't shine until we are under close scrutiny - and it seems like selecting that group of 8 happens before the close scrutiny happens.
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03-12-2014, 12:44 PM
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I pasted this from the article. Does anyone know which of these members has been assigned to the A10?
Men's Basketball Selection Committee
Member Affiliation
Ron Wellman Wake Forest AD
Joe Alleva LSU AD
Scott Barnes Utah State AD
Joe Castiglione Oklahoma AD
Doug Fullerton Big Sky commissioner
Mark Hollis Michigan State AD
Judy MacLeod C-USA associate commissioner
Bruce Rasmussen Creighton AD
Peter Roby Northeastern AD
Jamie Zaninovich West Coast commissioner
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03-12-2014, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by FlyingArrow
I like what he said about the criteria. That bodes well for us. What doesn't is the idea of 'groups of 8'. We don't shine until we are under close scrutiny - and it seems like selecting that group of 8 happens before the close scrutiny happens.
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Actually, there is alot of scrubbing of teams against other teams. There will be over 100 votes between now and Sunday.
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03-12-2014, 01:14 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
I pasted this from the article. Does anyone know which of these members has been assigned to the A10?
Men's Basketball Selection Committee
Member Affiliation
Ron Wellman Wake Forest AD
Joe Alleva LSU AD
Scott Barnes Utah State AD
Joe Castiglione Oklahoma AD
Doug Fullerton Big Sky commissioner
Mark Hollis Michigan State AD
Judy MacLeod C-USA associate commissioner
Bruce Rasmussen Creighton AD
Peter Roby Northeastern AD
Jamie Zaninovich West Coast commissioner
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Can't tell you which one is assigned the A10, but according to this story we can start the process of elimination as to who isn't (it's not Zaninovich). What else is interesting is that each of these members seems to develop his/her own criteria for at-large bids, in addition to those of the group.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...tion-committee
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03-12-2014, 01:44 PM
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Here is a good article featuring Mike Bobinski, last year's selection committee chairman.
Basically he says that the entire season is given equal weight, the most recent games played are not given more weight.
The article also has a nice picture of BG coaching.
http://georgiatech.blog.ajc.com/2014...team-analysis/
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03-12-2014, 01:48 PM
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The quote "It's really hard to get an at-large bid" hit home. To put it in perspective only 10-11% of all Division 1 basketball teams are awarded at-large bids.
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03-12-2014, 01:50 PM
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For some reason I think Ron Wellman is assigned to watch the A10. Can't remember where I read or heard that though. Just a guess at this point.
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03-12-2014, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
The quote "It's really hard to get an at-large bid" hit home. To put it in perspective only 10-11% of all Division 1 basketball teams are awarded at-large bids.
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Bottom line is win two and we are in, if not, we one of many bubble teams at the mercy of the committee (
Palm said just win the tourney to eliminate all of that!!!
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03-12-2014, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
The quote "It's really hard to get an at-large bid" hit home. To put it in perspective only 10-11% of all Division 1 basketball teams are awarded at-large bids.
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Indeed. Every year people say, "the bubble is terrible," but mostly it isn't. Dayton and St. Joe's, for instance, are said to be on the bubble. Are these terrible teams? No.
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03-12-2014, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Radar
Can't tell you which one is assigned the A10, but according to this story we can start the process of elimination as to who isn't (it's not Zaninovich). What else is interesting is that each of these members seems to develop his/her own criteria for at-large bids, in addition to those of the group.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...tion-committee
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A few things resonate from this story, keeping in mind he is but one of several on the committee:
-Zaninovich attended several "pre-season" tournaments, including Mauri (too bad he's not assigned the A10)
-Use of RPI is overrated; and conference RPI means nothing
-Bids per conference means nothing (so he says), primarily due to conferences playing unbalanced schedules
-Conference wins on the road are very important, then comes wins vs top 50, then top 100
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03-12-2014, 02:18 PM
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If we win on Thursday then lose to STJ and GW also wins 1 game. Then Richmond wins it all.
Who is left out? (No way 7 A-10 teams get in.) UD to the NIT, IMO.
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03-12-2014, 02:22 PM
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An article from February.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...me/ron-wellman
2 notes:
1. The eye test is still being used by the committee, people, not computers and not numbers(the rpi, SOS, etc.), determine who gets selected.
2. The committee will not penalize a team for a weak SOS if the team attempted to play a tough schedule, but their opponents ended up being weaker than originally anticipated.
The selection process involves some subjectivity.
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03-12-2014, 02:30 PM
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After reading through several of these articles it is pretty clear what the Selection Committee basis their unbiased and objective criteria on. However, there is a big difference between talking the talk and walking the walk. Of course the Committee is going to say they do everything fair and do not favor conferences, etc, they would never admit that. We just don't know what goes on behind closed doors.
Based off the criteria alone that the Committee says they refer to then UD would essentially be a lock with a win on Thursday. It's obvious if you look at our numbers and compare them to other resumes and the criteria that is supposedly used by the Committee. But like I said, no one knows how the selection Committee actually operates, which is why there is doubt that UD could get booted for a BCS school, etc. Personally, I would like to think the Committee is as objective as possible, but hey who knows. Bottom line, win Thursday and Friday and we sit comfortable on Sunday and any other wins after that are simply for seeding. Witha loss on Friday I will still be confident, but there will be some doubt in my mind and would not be shocked if our name doesn't get called.
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03-12-2014, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted by ud2
An article from February.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...me/ron-wellman
2 notes:
1. The eye test is still being used by the committee, people, not computers and not numbers(the rpi, SOS, etc.), determine who gets selected.
2. The committee will not penalize a team for a weak SOS if the team attempted to play a tough schedule, but their opponents ended up being weaker than originally anticipated.
The selection process involves some subjectivity.
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If #2 is the case, one could argue that UD won't be as penalized for scheduling--and losing to--USC. I'm not sure what happened to them this year. At the time of the UD/USC game, their RPI was in the low 90's I believe. My hunch is that Andy Englefield, as a new coach, decided to play more younger players. He is shrewd. He knows the first year is not on him. Better for him to get his younger players up to speed in the PAC 12. The older players may have packed it in.
Or maybe they were all just distracted when Andy's hot wife would show up at the games.
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03-12-2014, 10:20 PM
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Originally Posted by UD90
The quote "It's really hard to get an at-large bid" hit home. To put it in perspective only 10-11% of all Division 1 basketball teams are awarded at-large bids.
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That's how it should be. As the % getting in increases, the less the regular season matters. I dont want the NBA/NHL design which allows basically half to b in. Blech!
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03-12-2014, 11:13 PM
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Originally Posted by CraSch
That's how it should be. As the % getting in increases, the less the regular season matters. I dont want the NBA/NHL design which allows basically half to b in. Blech!
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Concur. The tournament is probably the most well-devised sporting event there is. Hope they don't try to change it or ruin it...
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03-13-2014, 12:59 AM
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I remember a great quote from, I think, Dan Patrick, from twenty or so years ago. It was on Sports Center, and the NHL playoffs were being announced, and the line was:
"The NHL has played 650 games this year to eliminate the NY Islanders."
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03-13-2014, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Falcon7
If we win on Thursday then lose to STJ and GW also wins 1 game. Then Richmond wins it all.
Who is left out? (No way 7 A-10 teams get in.) UD to the NIT, IMO.
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Do you actually read the posts in a given thread before you chime in? One of the main themes I picked up was that conference affiliation plays absolutely no role and the idea that certain conferences have a "cap" is a complete fallacy.
Now, it is possible that an A10 team could steal an at-large bid from someone. If that someone happens to be SJU or UD then your conclusion is correct, but the logic you used to get there is not.
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03-13-2014, 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Do you actually read the posts in a given thread before you chime in? One of the main themes I picked up was that conference affiliation plays absolutely no role and the idea that certain conferences have a "cap" is a complete fallacy.
Now, it is possible that an A10 team could steal an at-large bid from someone. If that someone happens to be SJU or UD then your conclusion is correct, but the logic you used to get there is not.
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If I could give you triple "Thanks" I would. Talk about the off topic "let's find the scenario that eliminates Dayton."
Jerry Palm said it best - just win. No one is guaranteed. Based on numbers/dance card we should be in, but conference tourneys will change things daily. Let's just get by Fordham today and avoid that bad loss.
I rather have Dayton on my jersey today than Xavier. Today is a must win to keep us from sweating profusely on selection Sunday. Revisit the bubble on Friday and determine how much of a must win SJU would be assuming we get there.
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03-13-2014, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by UD90
If I could give you triple "Thanks" I would. Talk about the off topic "let's find the scenario that eliminates Dayton."
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Some people are just hard wired to look at a glass and view it as half empty...
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03-13-2014, 11:38 AM
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I glad Zaninovich explained the last game myth some folks keep harping on. One game in a conference tourney has very little weight in the overall selection process. The only thing it may do is separate one or two teams that are basically the same resume. I would venture a guess that most of the at-large selections have already occurred other than maybe a handful. The remaining portion will now deal mostly with seeding.
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03-13-2014, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Radar
A few things resonate from this story, keeping in mind he is but one of several on the committee:
-Zaninovich attended several "pre-season" tournaments, including Mauri (too bad he's not assigned the A10)
-Use of RPI is overrated; and conference RPI means nothing
-Bids per conference means nothing (so he says), primarily due to conferences playing unbalanced schedules
-Conference wins on the road are very important, then comes wins vs top 50, then top 100
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I think he meant a teams specific RPI is overrated, but the RPI is used extensively in determing top 50 and top 100 wins, which he indicated are important. I am glad to see he beleives road wins are very important. UD's sterling 9-5 record away from home really gives them a leg up over most other teams especially considering several came agianst top competition.
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03-13-2014, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by hawkoooo
Do you actually read the posts in a given thread before you chime in? One of the main themes I picked up was that conference affiliation plays absolutely no role and the idea that certain conferences have a "cap" is a complete fallacy.
Now, it is possible that an A10 team could steal an at-large bid from someone. If that someone happens to be SJU or UD then your conclusion is correct, but the logic you used to get there is not.
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Yea, I do, it's just a question... Just don't respond if you think it's that f'n stupid.
You really believe, a cap in the A-10 is a complete fallacy. Yea, right...
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