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  #1  
Old 03-06-2018, 12:34 PM
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Games to Watch Today

Gonzaga, South Dakota State, and Green Bay are all playing in their conference championships today. We want all of them to win. If any of them lose, it becomes a bid stealer and the losing team falls into the "bubble" with us.

Green Bay would almost be a lock even if they lose. Of course, they also beat us. SDS and Gonzaga are direct competition. While I think right now we are looking good, if all 3 should lose all bets are off.

Root for all 3 to win.
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  #2  
Old 03-06-2018, 12:42 PM
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Wisc-GB is destroying Wright State...31-16 mid 2nd qtr.
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Old 03-06-2018, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Gonzaga, South Dakota State, and Green Bay are all playing in their conference championships today. We want all of them to win. If any of them lose, it becomes a bid stealer and the losing team falls into the "bubble" with us.

Green Bay would almost be a lock even if they lose. Of course, they also beat us. SDS and Gonzaga are direct competition. While I think right now we are looking good, if all 3 should lose all bets are off.

Root for all 3 to win.
Yeah, all three winning would be good.

The Zags and South Dakota St. are slated a couple lines below us at 12 and 11 seed lines, while we've held steady at a not so bubbly 9-seed. Again this is all based on Creme's analysis and projection, but if he's close to accurate, the Zags and Jack Rabbits losing probably don't steal the Flyers' bid. But, a Jack Rabbits win does knock out the South Dakota Coyotes (currently a 13-seed) and does theoretically open up another spot in Creme's current bracket projection.

Last edited by SLUFLYER; 03-06-2018 at 02:41 PM..
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Old 03-06-2018, 04:44 PM
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Currently watching Gonzaga in a close one with San Diego with 2 left in the first half. When I heard the name Stockton, I had to look it up. Laura Stockton is John's daughter. A 5"8" guard junior at Gonzaga.
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Old 03-06-2018, 09:30 PM
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Good day for the ladies. All 3 favorites win and nobody steals a bid. There is really only 1 conference left with definite bid-stealing probability. The MAC - if anybody other than Buffalo (RPI #20) or Central Michigan(RPI # 21) wins their tournament, it would definitely steal a bid. Buffalo and CMU are definitely in should either or both lose. A couple of other conferences are long shots to steal a bid. The Big Sky - if Northern Colorado (RPI #36) should lose. The Colonial - if both Drexel (RPI #44) and Elon (RPI #45) lose. However, losses by these favored teams in the Big Sky and Colonial would probably take them out of at-large consideration end their tournament hopes completely.

There are 32 at-large bids. Our RPI is currently 33. If one went strictly by RPI there are about 20-22 at-large eligible teams with a better RPI than ours. That means the committee would have to select 10-12 at-large teams with worse RPIs than Dayton for the Flyers not to dance. Again, going by RPI alone, the at-large cut line is between 45-50 on the RPI.

After today, I really like our chances for an at-large bid, but non P5 schools like ourselves are always downgraded by the selection committee.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by ud69 View Post
Good day for the ladies. All 3 favorites win and nobody steals a bid. There is really only 1 conference left with definite bid-stealing probability. The MAC - if anybody other than Buffalo (RPI #20) or Central Michigan(RPI # 21) wins their tournament, it would definitely steal a bid. Buffalo and CMU are definitely in should either or both lose. A couple of other conferences are long shots to steal a bid. The Big Sky - if Northern Colorado (RPI #36) should lose. The Colonial - if both Drexel (RPI #44) and Elon (RPI #45) lose. However, losses by these favored teams in the Big Sky and Colonial would probably take them out of at-large consideration end their tournament hopes completely.

There are 32 at-large bids. Our RPI is currently 33. If one went strictly by RPI there are about 20-22 at-large eligible teams with a better RPI than ours. That means the committee would have to select 10-12 at-large teams with worse RPIs than Dayton for the Flyers not to dance. Again, going by RPI alone, the at-large cut line is between 45-50 on the RPI.

After today, I really like our chances for an at-large bid, but non P5 schools like ourselves are always downgraded by the selection committee.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:29 AM
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Wow!! Plenty of scenarios to mull over. It’s going to be practical to think the Flyers are in the Dance after all of the possibilities IMHO. The goal now for the Flyers is getting to the second weekend of the tournament. The foundation was paved. I couldn’t think of an easier year to get in the Dance automatically than this year. The committee is not kind to non Power conference teams. The seeding will be no greater than #11 for this team. They can only do the best with it and play with unpierced focus. Good luck and Go Flyers
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Orbit flyer View Post
Wow!! Plenty of scenarios to mull over. It’s going to be practical to think the Flyers are in the Dance after all of the possibilities IMHO. The goal now for the Flyers is getting to the second weekend of the tournament. The foundation was paved. I couldn’t think of an easier year to get in the Dance automatically than this year. The committee is not kind to non Power conference teams. The seeding will be no greater than #11 for this team. They can only do the best with it and play with unpierced focus. Good luck and Go Flyers
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depends what you consider the easiest year to get autobid. Weak conference yes. Playing 7 players 90 % of the season wears on them and it showed.

With a week plus rest let's see how they do. GO FLYERS
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Old 03-07-2018, 01:40 PM
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I think if they get in as an 10-12 seed it is to our advantage. An 8-9 seed and a win gets one of the four number one seeds. Those 4 teams are pretty close to being unbeatable by anyone outside of those four teams. I personally, would rather see us in a site where we can win that first game and have a chance in the second game against that home team.

ESPN has us in as a 9 seed in Mississippi State's bracket.
Crème has us in as last 8 in and as a 9 seed in Connecticut's bracket
Real Time RPI has as a 9 seed and in Connecticut's bracket.

I don't like any of those so stick us a lower seed and place us in Ohio State's bracket and let us win two in Columbus...

Go Flyers!

Last edited by Cardsflyer; 03-07-2018 at 01:47 PM..
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Old 03-07-2018, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Cardsflyer View Post
I think if they get in as an 10-12 seed it is to our advantage. An 8-9 seed and a win gets one of the four number one seeds. Those 4 teams are pretty close to being unbeatable by anyone outside of those four teams. I personally, would rather see us in a site where we can win that first game and have a chance in the second game against that home team.

ESPN has us in as a 9 seed in Mississippi State's bracket.
Crème has us in as last 8 in and as a 9 seed in Connecticut's bracket
Real Time RPI has as a 9 seed and in Connecticut's bracket.

I don't like any of those so stick us a lower seed and place us in Ohio State's bracket and let us win two in Columbus...

Go Flyers!
What is the difference or location of Creme's site vs ESPN? The NCAAW Bracketology section is authored by Crème, so I was assuming they're one in the same.

Either way, we should be feeling optimistic/confident about our inclusion in the bracket, if not so optimistic about our potential 2nd round opponent. I can't speak to the perceived or actual massive disparity between the Top 4 teams and the teams slated 5 thru 8 to suggest how much our chances of winning decrease. I'd probably look more at the potential opponent's lineup(s) and skill sets and how well (or not) our Flyers match up with them.
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Old 03-09-2018, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by SLUFLYER View Post
What is the difference or location of Creme's site vs ESPN? The NCAAW Bracketology section is authored by Crème, so I was assuming they're one in the same.

Either way, we should be feeling optimistic/confident about our inclusion in the bracket, if not so optimistic about our potential 2nd round opponent. I can't speak to the perceived or actual massive disparity between the Top 4 teams and the teams slated 5 thru 8 to suggest how much our chances of winning decrease. I'd probably look more at the potential opponent's lineup(s) and skill sets and how well (or not) our Flyers match up with them.
I have never noticed it before. My apologies. Crème does the ESPN and College Sports Madness does their own. I thought he was involved in the CSM one.

To edit what I put down before:
Crème - ESPN - has us at 9 playing California at Mississippi State's arena
College Sports Madness has us at 9 playing Michigan at Connecticut's arena
Real Time RPI now has us at 10 playing #7 Oklahoma at Mississippi State's arena

I don't really like aby of those scenarios. I would rather see us slide to 11 and play at Ohio State's place as I think we have the potential to beat them versus other 3 seeds in Creme's bracketology.

Go Flyers!
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Old 03-09-2018, 04:17 PM
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CMU and Buffalo both win semi-final games today and will play tomorrow for MAC title. Both were projected in the field - so no bid stealing here. This was the last real serious bid stealer. Still need to watch the IVY (Princeton), Big Sky (Northern Colorado), and CAA (Drexel) a bit, but all the auto bids for those leagues are seeded below us. That would mean they are all one bid leagues. All the favorites are still alive in those leagues as well.
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Old 03-12-2018, 12:42 AM
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Good News!!! - IMHOP

Unbelievably, we ended up being the only real apparent bid-stealer of the whole tournament. Nearly every other significant tournament had a team already projected into the bracket as an automatic qualifier. There were some upsets, but they were confined to one bid leagues only.

In looking at the RPI, we end up at #36. There are 13 auto-bids with RPI values better than us. If the tournament went strictly by RPI we would be the 21st at-large team out of a total of 32 at-large bids. The cut-line if going strictly by RPI would put the last at-large bid at #52 which is USC. This is quite different from the men's bracket where the cut-line - even with more at-large bids at 36 - is around 45. The reason for this is that there are more good top teams in other than P5 leagues with solid RPI values. Of course, the lack of upsets also helps.

IMHOP, even better news this evening. The NCAA committee tonight released a list of 8 teams in the running for the last 4 at-large bids. We are NOT on the list. That, to me, is an even better indicator that we will hear our name called tomorrow night. Here is the list and their RPI numbers:

Buffalo - #22 - lost in MAC finals - I have had them in regardless
Oklahoma - #35
Rutgers - #40
Minnesota - #41
Creighton - #49
USC - #52
Purdue - #62
West Virginia - #64

http://www.espn.com.au/womens-colleg...-spots-bracket

My guess is that we are headed to Louisville or South Bend.

Last edited by ud69; 03-12-2018 at 12:46 AM..
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Old 03-12-2018, 12:45 PM
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We've done well in Louisville and against Louisville and Kentucky. BTW what happened to Kentucky. Program sliding backwards.
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Old 03-12-2018, 06:40 PM
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Kentucky had like 3 players move on to the WNBA. One year hiccup. They will be back with a vengeance.
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Old 03-12-2018, 07:54 PM
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Kentucky actually had a mass player and assistant coach exodus a couple of years ago. It included a couple of former Dayton assistants who went there. They had enough talent at the time of the exodus to get to the Sweet 16 but all the transfers hurt their recruiting and talent level.

They are in a precarious position because Louisville has gotten the HS players out of Kentucky the last few years. Will UK be back? Probably but they are the little sister in their rivalry with UL at this point.

Here are a couple article about the situation
http://www.kentucky.com/sports/spt-c...e74074632.html

https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...sfer/83947736/
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