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FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 4: Inside and Outside
FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 4: Inside and Outside
Christopher Rieman
Published by Chris R
08-15-2019
Smile FLIGHT SCHEDULE w/AD Neil Sullivan: Part 4: Inside and Outside



The UD Athletic Department released the 2019-20 non-conference schedule a couple weeks ago, ending a summer of speculation about who, when, and where the Flyers would be playing outside the A10. This followed an announcement by the A10 office in mid-June that outlined the seasonal pairings (sometimes called Pods) within the conference. The Flyers secured home-and-homes with Saint Louis, VCU, Duquesne, UMass, and Rhode Island. The remaining league foes consist of single-game matchups rotating home and away based on prior scheduling.

Dayton lobbies for quality A10 pairings and analyzes the metrics to find the best middle ground between a challenging pod and affording the program a chance to finish in the top three spots of the league’s regular season standings. Fans often demand the five toughest A10 foes for UD’s pod, but is the NCAA Selection Committee savvy enough to recognize a 5th place A10 team with the toughest pod is infinitely more qualified for at-large consideration than a 2nd place team with the weakest pod? Past precedent and historical metrics suggest league finish still matters even when the committee insists otherwise. The Selection Committee is full of many bracket soundbite contradictions.



Dayton prefers a balance of two title-contending opponents, two middle-tier opponents, and one opponent in the latter third but not slated for a Quad 4 finish. This approach balances the concerns for strength of schedule and A10 title competitiveness without sacrificing one for the other. The science says both races matter and UD schedules accordingly.

THE A10 BENCH PRESS

While spit-wadding ideas on UDPride’s discussion forums, I suggested the idea of mitigating the non-con scheduling frustration with a potential game against an A10 opponent outside the league schedule. Other programs from other leagues have gone down this rabbit hole in the past.

“Out of respect for our league I don’t want to go into details, but primitive discussions about playing a league opponent in a non-conference road game to ensure a quality game was genuinely discussed,” Sullivan stated.

Such moves usually require consent from the league office and there’s no telling how an NCAA Selection Committee might digest it. Would they weight it like it was scheduled, or as an unofficial official result within the confines of league standings? Would they use it to break a tie and if so how so? UD’s willingness to consider out-of-the-box ideas however should provide additional comfort to the wooden-and-perfunctory scheduling critics.

To tackle scheduling effectively, it requires a holistic approach because the A10 must also do its part to ensure league members don’t fall into Quad 4 purgatory. The conference schedule remains two-thirds of Dayton’s body of work and while quality non-con scheduling is more important (and more difficult) than ever, it can be marginalized with an improved A10 from the penthouse to the cellar. League opponents must be the foundation of a quality schedule and most independent thinkers are optimistic about A10 performance this year to help Dayton’s overall scheduling metrics. Sullivan’s team also offers scheduling knowledge and resources to other A10 members to boost their own profiles. The reverb benefits the Flyers.

SIX DEGREES OF SEPARATION

Top to bottom however, this offseason required every resource to sew up a schedule Dayton can leverage for NCAA at-large consideration. The squeeze was felt early and often, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Sullivan’s staff reached out to every Top-75 program in the country as well as other name-brand opponents that Flyer fans would enjoy. The responses varied.

“We pulled the home schedule from the opening year at UD Arena to find a nostalgic yet quality non-conference opener to re-dedicate the facility,” Sullivan mentioned. “We tried to hit some home runs with opponents like Notre Dame, DePaul, and Boston College. We approached Auburn for another two-game series, but they did not want to play us anymore. We made the same request to Mississippi State for a two-game renewal but received the same response.”



During conversations for the potential home game with Boston College, Dayton also considered a home game with Valparaiso just in case. UD waited as long as possible for a BC commitment based on the opportunity cost.

Seemingly unrelated, Bryce Drew was fired from Vanderbilt after the season and a new staff took over the program. Sources indicated Vanderbilt still owed Valpo a home game from Bryce Drew’s exit contract at Valpo. If that’s true, the new Commodore staff chose not to play the game and bought it out altogether. With cash in pocket Valparaiso wasn’t anticipating, they no longer needed a field trip to earn a paycheck at UD Arena. Not long thereafter, Boston College declined UD’s offer to play.

Dayton struck out on both opponents for two completely different reasons: one because an ACC opponent said thanks but no thanks, the other related to an SEC coaching change and contract buyout that affected a Missouri Valley team’s financial incentive not to play. No one was betrayed or exploited. Teams look out for their own best interests and sometimes the fallout is several dominos away. Fans must learn to appreciate the layers of complexity even if they push back against the results.

I WANT YOU TO WANT ME

Some fans still believe the non-P5 fish should be easier scheduling prey than power-conference opponents. Even that isn’t always the case. Miami OH reached out to the Flyers for a game at UD Arena and Dayton accepted. Communication dropped and the game never got done.

“Interestingly, we could not even get traction with Utah State at home or away,” Sullivan added. “They are preseason Top-25 in several early polls. We thought perhaps we could incorporate it into the 2020-21 A10/Mountain West Challenge.”

Dayton reached out to additional schools from other non-power conferences that made scheduling sense on both sides. Once again, the typical answer is ‘it’s not a good fit.’ That includes teams from the Mountain West, West Coast Conference, and AAC.

“We want to play the best teams in the American Athletic Conference in home-and-home matchups absolutely,” Sullivan reassured the fans. “I was very surprised that Central Florida and others turned us down this year, even starting on the road. It would be great if the best of the A10 could play the best of the American. We certainly wanted the top teams of the AAC to play us.“

The endless pursuit of potential non-conference opponents forces athletic departments like UD to utilize every tool at their disposal. Rolodexes are scanned for current and past contacts to find someone with a foot in the door. Sometimes it’s a friend of a friend who knows the guy who knows the guy that has the authority to shake trees and get something done. The more people you know the better your chances. Sullivan interfaces as often as any AD in the country and leverages those networking tethers to pull strings in the non-conference schedule.

“I focus my efforts aggressively but professionally, effectively, and as privately as possible.”

GO BACK TO PART 3: Theory as Product
READ ON TO PART 5: Three Dimensional Chess
__________________

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  #1  
By TA111 on 08-15-2019, 10:32 AM
Great job Chris! Really puts this entire scheduling problem in perspective.
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  #2  
By rollo on 08-15-2019, 02:31 PM
Insanity! This is great reading Chris! Thanks!
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