The 1998-99 basketball season for the University of Dayton Flyers may be the most important of the last 10 years. The Flyers have taken four consecutive positive steps under the guidance of Oliver Purnell and are looking to finally conquer the hill called “national prominence.” The reason this year is so critical is obvious: the coaching staff returns all but Coby Turner next season and has six scholarships to award within the next year or so. An excellent year by Dayton means UD will likely sign the best recruiting class in fifteen years. A step back means it may be three or four more seasons before the Flyers can effectively compete for an A-10 Title. Next season’s tools for success have been nailed down, but UD needs to take one more step before anyone starts pounding their chest proclaiming the Flyers as a major program. We are so close, but we have one more step to take. Dayton fans are hoping the players and coaches are up to the task.

This edition of the Flyers is new and improved over a year ago, but at the same time full of question marks. There is little debate that Dayton has more talent than last season across the roster, but the new faces may or may not contribute in time to replace Ryan Perryman’s sneakers. Perryman was the heart and soul of last year’s team. When the Flyers needed a defensive stop or a critical rebound, Perryman answered. When Dayton needed a desperate basket to stop a drought, Perryman answered. When Dayton needed someone to light a fire under the troops, well….you get the idea. Forget his 15ppg and 12.5rpg for the moment. As a team, this year’s group may be able to work together and recover most of those numbers. What they will miss is his humility, work-ethic, and leadership – something not defined in the boxscore.

If anyone has the potential to carry Ryan’s torch it is senior Coby Turner. The 6-7, 233lb Virginia native had a breakthrough year last season and could wind up one of the nation’s best quick forwards. Nobody in the country has the size, strength, mobility, defensive ability, and shooting all in one package like Coby Turner – even Wally Szczerbiak. That’s not to say Turner is better than the All-American – it just means he has the tools to be one. That’s a strong statement but one DFE feels confident in making.

If Turner can be the consistent cog in the Flyer offensive and defensive arsenal, Dayton has a chance. He is the only Flyer player other than Mark Ashman who can be counted on to contribute on both ends of the court night in and night out. The A-10 is as tough as it has ever been and will serve up no favors. The Flyers will have to earn every win and avoid every bad loss to get to the Big Dance.

Dayton’s 1998-99 schedule is decent, but not brutal by most accounts. When Selection Sunday is here, the Flyers could once again be biting their nails due to a mediocre RPI from an average schedule. To the Flyers credit, Marquette, Cincinnati, Miami (OH), and Louisville are solid tests, but IUPUI, Northwestern, Kent, Toledo, E. Michigan, and DePaul appear to be “should-wins” with a healthy effort. Dayton’s only strong non-conference games outside of the Arena are Miami and Cincinnati. This deficiency has already been addressed for next season as UD will play in the CoSIDA Tournament in Albuquerque with the likes of UNM, Indiana, and Oklahoma State – all Top-25 teams.

There will be no NCAA invitations for a 16-10 record according to the 1998-99 schedule. Dayton must win and win often.

Dayton should finish 2nd or 3rd in the A-10 West this season. In turn, look for the Flyers to finally win a road game against a quality opponent. If UD maintains its tough presence at home, they can finish with as many as 19 regular season wins. If they struggle, UD could wind up with as few as 15. DFE envisions the 1998-99 team falling somewhere in the middle: 17-9. Add another win and a loss in the A-10 tourney and the end result is an 18-10 year — good by any standard, but not good enough for the NCAA unless the committee decides to take six A-10 teams or Dayton finishes no worst than 2nd in the West. A betting man says one more year in the NIT before an NCAA lock in 1999-00. If this year’s team overachieves like least season’s team however, the waiting will end now.

The only certainty in 1998-99 is that it will be a hell of a ride. There will be big wins, and probably a disappointing loss or two. DFE will be there for you throughout the season to chart the Flyers’ progress, ask the tough questions, and meet the needs of the best college basketball fans in the country.

A composite breakdown:

6-7 SR Coby Turner
One look at ‘The Cobra’ and its easy to see why NBA scouts are quietly looking at the Dayton forward as a possible draft choice. At 6-7, 233lb, Turner is the shooting guard professional teams dream of. He’s big, quick, moves his feet exceptionally well, plays a tough in-your-face defensive game, is a long-range marksman, and can handle the basketball or drive to the basket for short jumpers when the opportunity arises. There may be more acclaimed quick forwards in the country, but Turner is as solid as they come. Turner never gets pushed around and doesn’t mind going inside for contact. Finally, Coby can shoot free throws. There is no glaring weakness to Turner’s game, but he needs to improve in each area to truly be a star. At 13ppg, he is capable of scoring more. DFE projects 17-18ppg and 4rpg in his final season as a Flyer.

6-9 JR Mark Ashman
An argument can be made that Mark Ashman has put together the quietest but most consistent Flyer career in the program’s history. With only two years under his belt, Ashman is on pace to rank among the school leaders in points, blocks, and games played. The former Ohio Div-II Player of the Year possesses the best set of post moves in the business. While Ashman has been criticized for shying away from contact in the paint, his strength is shooting the basketball and playing decent defense. A dead-eye from 15 feet in, Mark is most comfortable facing the basket. Ashman should bump his totals to 14ppg and 7rpg this year.

6-1 JR Edwin Young
‘The Blanket’ is a point guard, a defender, and a scorer – in that order. Young held his opponents to 36% shooting a year ago and didn’t make the A-10 All-Defensive Team. What gives?

If anything, Young’s Achilles heel is scoring. DFE doesn’t see Young netting more than 10ppg on a regular basis this season, but Dayton needs his ball-handling more than they do his marksmanship. Young owns a healthy assist-to-turnover ratio and seldom plays out of control. Oliver Purnell will once again count on the Zanesville native to steer the ship in the right direction. If Young can bump his assists-per-game average to 5.5 it would be a solid improvement for an already solid player.

6-4 SO Tony Stanley
The only obstacle holding back Tony is Tony. After setting a freshman scoring record at UD last year, expectations for Tony are very high – maybe too high. After all, he struggled from the field most of last season and made a couple critical mistakes in the closing seconds of a few games. But for every freshman mistake Stanley made, he wowed the Flyer crowd with his potential; his 26pts and game-winning shot against Temple underlined the optimism surrounding him. A 17ppg second-year campaign is reasonable. If Tony can improve his off-the-ball defense he will be an All A-10 performer.

6-9 JR Stephen Bamigbola
The ‘Nigerian Nightmare’ is ready to contribute, or so fans think anyway. After a rude baptism last year, Bamigbola appears to be Dayton’s next big man. He played in only a handful of games a year ago and looked anywhere from awful to very good. Luckily, his best stretch came at the end of the year and fans are hoping that trend will continue as this season begins. Bamigbola has the size and strength to be a force for the Flyers, but lacks the polish to be counted on without him proving it first. Expect 7ppg and 5rpg.

6-10 JR Matt Cooper
Cooper is the least-gifted player on the UD roster but has a way of worming into the lineup throughout the year. Every single part of Cooper’s game is weak with the exception of defense, but it may be enough for him to see playing time once again due to Dayton’s inexperience in the frontcourt. If nothing more, Cooper will take a few fouls, block a few shots, and give the starters a breather. He has his role and he accepts it, which may be his strongest quality. Expecting more than 3ppg and 3rpg would be a lot to ask.

6-7 JR Ted Fitz
Fitz is a walk-on player who is willing to put up with the gassers, bruises, and long road trips for the sake of wearing a Flyer uniform. That’s a compliment. In fact, Fitz takes his basketball so seriously that he bulked up 20lb in the off-season in an effort to earn his way into the starting lineup. He was on the court for the opening tip of the two exhibition games. His work has paid off for now, but no one knows for sure if he will remain there as the season progresses. Fitz is not a scoring threat and lacks the God-given basketball ability of other players, but he hustles and that counts for something. He also makes very few mistakes. Anything more than 4ppg and 3rpg would be pushing it.

6-8 SO Yuanta Holland
Holland is the first UD player willing to throw down windmill dunks on a 7-footer since DFE can recall. True, former Flyer players may have had the ability, but not the guts or confidence. This is what Yuanta brings to this year’s squad. Holland has the reputation of a rebounding extraordinaire but has a ways to go before taking over the chalice as UD’s next magnet of roundball caroms. Holland has the athletic ability to be a solid scorer but is still young and experienced — it will show this year. Having said this, 7ppg and 4rpg isn’t out of the question.

6-6 FR Nate Green
Like his name suggests Nate is the greenist of the incoming players. Once thought as UD’s prized recruit, Nate may take a year or two before he can be counted on as a major contributor. Green has the size and bulk that few Flyer freshmen have ever had but has been foul-prone in two preseason games. Green could surprise and contribute 4ppg and 3rpg, but I wouldn’t put money on it. His best years are still ahead of him and they should be very good ones.

5-10 FR David Morris
Quick on quick. That’s how DFE describes David Morris. Put bluntly, Morris will challenge Edwin Young for playing time all year. The only thing holding Morris back is experience. Once he has that, look out. The young guard may be the fastest Flyer since Paul Hawkins or Ken Branch, but stays in control and rarely makes a bonehead decision. He will take a few lumps this year like all frosh, but he will also have his moments. DFE predicts 7ppg, 4apg, and 1.5spg for the newcomer. A fine year indeed.

6-6 SO Cain Doliboa
Cain is the best shooter on the team. Period. Cain’s problem is he can’t seem to keep a hot hand going for more than a few minutes in a real game. Doliboa hit a handful of treys off the bench to help UD beat URI last season but had other games where he shot so many bricks that fans thought he was constructing an outhouse. Still, Doliboa is capable of much more and fans should expect it. With his size and quick release, he has the potential to be a 3-point assassin. Doliboa will remain a bench contributor this year but if he finds his range he could net 5ppg and 2rpg.

6-3 JR Andy Metzler
Metzler is the kid everyone said couldn’t play Div-I basketball. Andy is not excellent in any one area of his game but doesn’t have a glaring weakness either. To his credit, Metzler is one of the few guards willing to attack the rim and take a hit. He can shoot the three, grab a few boards, and hold his own on the defensive end against an average opponent. Purnell rewards Metzler with playing time because he hustles, never complains, and is as durable as a Sherman Tank. Only a severe bout of mysterious fatigue has kept him off the court during his career. Even a recent shoulder injury shouldn’t keep ‘Metz’ from off the floor. Andy should be one of the first guys off the bench yet again. A 10ppg year is within his reach.