The toughest part about slicing and dicing the 1999-00 version of the University of Dayton Flyers is determining where to start. Looking back at last season, there appears to be quality players to win ball games but there’s also holes in the armor that look like Swiss cheese. Will improvements and fine-tuning push the Flyers to the postseason again or is Dayton looking at another year of road game inadequacies, mental lapses, and off-court conundrums?

LOOKING BACK

Last season was a nightmare and there is no easy way to say it. With high hopes of another successful season after a 21-12 finish in 1997-98, even skeptics admitted Dayton had the talent to make noise in the Atlantic-10 if catastrophes were avoided. There’s no need to recount last year’s obvious failures in detail. Selfish agendas, non-existent leadership, lack of mental toughness, off-court embarrassments, and mediocre basketball was the overriding storyline. Bright spots were few and far between, disappointment multiplied like rabbits, and before long fans were already looking forward to next season. Well fans, here it is.THE

STATE OF THE UNION

Flyer Faithful everywhere demand answers, and they want them now. The good news is nearly every significant contributor from last year’s squad is back for another year of basketball. The bad news is nearly every significant contributor from last year’s squad is back for another year of basketball. In essence, its déjà vu all over again.

In the most honest terms, last year’s team is this year’s team – with a few notable exceptions. Anyone expecting a national power should have their skull examined, but even with all the heartbreaks of yesteryear, the law of averages tells us that good fortune is destined to fall Dayton’s way sooner rather than later. Fans will once again flock to the UD Arena in droves, making it one of the toughest courts in college basketball, and conversation will turn to high hopes and lofty goals.

WHAT WILL GO RIGHT

In short, Mark Ashman. Ashman may be the best player with the worst reputation in the entire A-10 — not to imply that he’s a fugitive from justice but rather that he’s too soft and mild-mannered on the court. While talking heads insist on comparing him to Lamont Barnes or Lari Ketner, Ashman deserves to be recognized on his own merits. Few other centers in the country have the post moves and shooting touch inside 15 feet like Mark, and even fewer get the recognition they deserve. Ashman has always been a power forward holding the tent post at the center position in lieu of UD nabbing that heralded aircraft carrier. The job became permanent and Ashman has handled it admirably. He should have no trouble putting up solid numbers in his final season and could earn a place on the All-Conference First Team.

Optimism also lies on the perimeter where Dayton has a number of weapons at its disposal. Tony Stanley, Brooks Hall, Cain Doliboa, Edwin Young, and David Morris are all capable of knocking down the jumper and comprise the best rebounding backcourt in the A-10. The Flyers dropped seven games by four points or less last season. That won’t happen again either. Dayton will either learn how to finish teams off or get soundly defeated. Purnell’s team will keep it together much better against the weaker opponents on the schedule and pad the win column where it should.

The re-emergence of Nate Green will help this team. In fact, he could be the surprise of the year – there just aren’t that many 6-6, 243lb, warriors coming out of high school. With a shoulder at 100% and another year of maturity and strength, Green will materialize into Dayton’s version of Kevin Frey.

Guard play, a key factor in last year’s slide, will prove to be more reliable as well. Edwin Young started off 1998-99 on a poor note and never recovered, forcing freshman David Morris to assume much of the leadership duties. Young will look like he did as a sophomore while Morris will push for a starting job. As always, the UD Arena will pose fits for incoming teams. The Flyers got lazy last season and threw away several home victories. This year’s home schedule is stiff but not extraordinary. The major challenges lie on the road and in conference play.

WHAT WILL GO WRONG

Like it or not, looking at 1999-00 through rose-colored glasses isn’t going to change the realities of this basketball team. Of greatest concern is the lack of quality road wins that continue to haunt the program and keep an otherwise decent club from making strides on the national scene. The Flyers haven’t posted a quality road win since the early days of Jim O’Brien’s tenure – that’s several years for those counting. The Atlantic-10 is too good anymore to make waves by merely whipping up on the bottomfeeders of the league.

Coming home with road victories against the likes of Duquesne, Fordham, LaSalle, and Virginia Tech are necessities, but no one will truly take the Flyers seriously until Purnell can coach them to a win away from the Arena against Temple, Xavier, UMass, Rhode Island, and George Washington on a consistent basis.

The road woes will continue, but UD will sneak out a few victories against sub .500 teams and come close in one or two more. Dayton still lacks the overall strength and size of A-10 heavyweights and it will show again. Whereas teams like Xavier have a stable of men chiseled from blocks of stone, the Flyers are usually the ones getting pushed around. With A-10 officiating suspect as it is, teams who push and bump on a consistent basis will always have the upper hand while finesse teams continue to get rag-dolled.

Until Dayton bulks up with bigger bodies, it’s another year of hoping the officials call a tight game. The recent rumor is that UD hit the weight room hard in the offseason and should be in better condition to fight among the A-10 behemoths, but this problem can’t be solved in just one summer.

COACHING

After the success of 1997-98, institutions like Virginia, Iowa State, and Clemson circled Purnell’s name around to fill coaching vacancies. Purnell remained at Dayton and signed a lucrative 10-year agreement to bolster the Flyer armada. A disappointing 1998-99 took an edge off momentum and off-court problems raised questions about control within the program. The loss of dedicated assistant coach Pete Strickland to Coastal Carolina was a tough loss as well.

Don’t let the numbers fool you however. Despite Purnell’s sub .500 record after five years at the helm, he’s one of the top young coaching minds in the country. More often then not, Flyer losses weren’t because of poor coaching, but poor play. Purnell doesn’t play favorites and consistently yanks starters from the game who insist on making up their own strategies. If there’s criticism to be worn, its an inability to sign enough quality players whose talents overshadow deficiencies. Ron Jirsa, former boss at the University of Georgia, was added to the staff in the offseason to bolster recruiting and help on game day. Only positive things can come from adding a one-time SEC head coach.

In short, the coaching will be there – it always has. It’s up to the players to listen closely and execute instructions. Purnell’s iron hand must be felt in the recruiting arena where the Flyers need a major dose of incoming talent as this year’s seniors move on to open the door for fresh faces and high hopes. This part of Purnell’s game is still under criticism.

THE FLYERS WILL TURN HEADS IF

…Tony Stanley plays inside the three-point line. A year ago one of every two field goal attempts came from behind the arc. If he learns the north-south game and attacks the rim like other A-10 counterparts, memories of an inconsistent sophomore year will quickly fade.

…they learn how to win on the road. Four or five road victories could be the difference in postseason play and sitting at home. Road wins against the bottom half in each division of the A-10 will be key. Winning against the top half will be icing on the cake. In a Utopia, Dayton wins one of every two road games. That won’t happen this season, but one out of three could be huge.

…field goal shooting improves. Last year’s .395% was a microcosm of the entire season. The Flyers must give themselves a chance to win and shooting better will improve the odds. If Dayton can sink .450% or higher – solid but not spectacular – the defense will be in a better position to win games.

…Brooks Hall plays like a sophomore. Purnell’s most important recruit is destined for stardom if he continues to show the maturity and humility of an upperclassman. The better Hall is playing, the better off the Flyers will be. Nothing we’ve seen so far indicates Brooks Hall will be a disappointment.

…Dayton beats New Mexico, Kentucky, or Miami. Whipping the Lobos or Wildcats could light a fire under the program while UD has its best chance in 10 years to beat their biggest rival.

DAYTON IS IN TROUBLE IF

…someone doesn’t start barking orders. Missing from a year ago was leadership – of any kind. While everyone was either freelancing on the perimeter or watching the paint dry inside the post, the Flyers got outflanked when the games were on the line. Losses to Louisville, Cincinnati, Toledo, and Northwestern are obvious examples. On a team with too many Indians and no chief, on-the-court organization and leadership took a back seat and never reemerged.

…Purnell’s club starts the season off cold. The Flyers get tested early and often against some of the best competition in the country. Dayton learns what a real road crowd is when they open up against New Mexico at The Pit for the CoSIDA Tournament. Days later they play Kentucky in the Queen city. After a short reprieve, its important matchups against Miami, Marquette, and St. Louis. If Dayton falls 2-3 games under .500, the wind from the sails could leave for good.

…injuries occur. Dayton is paper thin at every position other than shooting guard. The problem isn’t enough bodies, but enough capable bodies to throw against teams who possess five guys off the bench who could easily start. The loss of Nucleus Smith and Andy Metzler have already put Dayton behind the 8-ball. Losing another would be overwhelming.

KEY GAMES

…at the CoSIDA tournament. Leaving Albuquerque no worse than 1-1 makes an early statement that the team is ready to play

…at Virginia Tech. The Flyers have thrown away several key games in Blacksburg over the years and let the Hokies have their way in Dayton a year ago. One of the few solid chances at a road win

…at home against Miami (OH). A rivalry once owned by Dayton now stands almost even. The Flyers haven’t beaten the boys from Oxford since Joby Wright walked the sidelines

…at home against Xavier — the only game of late that brings out the best in the Flyers.

THE SKINNY

Dayton should be improved, but by and large the same gremlins that have haunted the program over the past 10 years will be there again to cause trouble in Flyerland. The postseason is not unrealistic, but the Flyers will operate with a small margin of error. Small cracks in the armor will prove deadly but if a starter or two exceeds all expectations and UD gets some help from struggling foes, a first-round bye in the A-10 tournament is not unthinkable. The question isn’t whether Dayton will make the NIT or the NCAA, it’s whether Purnell’s team will offer a little more substance and a little less style. Rather than the occasional upset and a few stinkers,

Flyer fans are looking for more consistency no matter what postseason bid comes our way.

POINTS AND COUNTERPOINTS

In addition to better perimeter shooting, it is critical to find someone to grab the key defensive rebounds. The loss at Tech was directly linked to failing to grab the board despite having superior position and several other close defeats were caused by giving up inopportune offensive rebounds.

Offensive board work is also critical. While UD had a fair number of offensive rebounds last year, it would be interesting to know how many points they got off the glass. Better work here would add a couple points to the shooting percentage. Far too many offensive boards were kicked back out or resulted in another miss. For that reason it would not be shocking if Brooks played offensively at shooting guard with Stanley at quick forward. Even with a bigger body defending him I think Tony could do damage on the offensive glass, and maybe it would change his outlook on how much time he should spend behind the 3 point line.