Forecasting the 2002 UD mens soccer season is a lot like forecasting the weather: it looks good on radar, but the proof is walking outside and looking up at the sky. Head Coach Dave Schureck’s Flyers are in much the same situation heading into Sunday afternoon’s season opener at Cincinnati. What we have on paper looks to be a solid team who can find success against the better teams on the schedule, but we haven’t seen it for ourselves and until we do, the season at this point rides on pure speculation.

What we do know is 2001 was a season full of peaks and valleys and UD is looking to find more consistency this year. Virginia Tech and Cincinnati up-ended the Flyers early in the schedule a year ago; one match lost in the waning seconds and the other in overtime. Both defeats came at Baujan Field and put the Flyers behind the proverbial Eight Ball as they fought their way back up the ladder. A home win over a struggling Akron team who ended up piecing together a nice season helped right the ship, and Dayton scraped together an impressive 8-1-1 record in A-10 play – including home victories over league-leading UMass and Top-25 URI. Perhaps the catalyst for all of this coming from a dramatic road win at Wright State just as the conference schedule arrived. Down two goals with under ten minutes to play, the Flyers forced overtime on a Denny Clanton goal with just seconds left on the clock and held even for the emotional tie over their cross-town rivals. The home field advantage didn’t help Dayton as they were dispatched rather easily in the A-10 Tournament semifinals at Baujan Field. A disappointing loss to be sure, but UD once again proved it was among the elite in the conference and had the tools to play good soccer after a slow start to the season.

That’s all in the past now and the 2002 campaign will look much different. It has to because a large senior class graduated and several freshmen and sophomores will be asked to step up right away and make valuable contributions. UD must fill major holes in the middle of the field as many of the departed seniors were midfield players, not to mention one-time starters in their careers. But the same group of midfielders who so dominated teams in 2000 didn’t have same magic in 2001 and struggled somewhat to assert themselves against the good teams. While UD loses their leadership and experience, the coaching staff feels the freshmen bring better speed and athleticism, and perhaps, a blatant ignorance for the pressures of major D-I soccer. They’ll need to be loose because many of them will be playing.

THE RETURNEES

The Flyers lost Wade Fischer, Erik Nelson, Lee Crawford, Chris Moler, Joe Appel, Dan Cerwinske, Dan Bestic, and GK Matt Hutchins. That’s a huge class to say goodbye, and most of these players were vital cogs in the Dayton program for much of their careers. But sometimes change is good and Coach Schureck and Co. are hoping the returning personnel take on a fresh attitude in 2002 and embrace the opportunity to earn serious playing time.

Perhaps the most interesting battle will take place at goalkeeper as junior Jason Kurdziel and sophomore Steve Ladislaw duke it out in the nets. The edge probably goes to Kurdziel who appeared in two matches in 2001, earning his only career start in the process. Ladislaw redshirted last year but big things are expected from him and he could see considerable action no matter who turns into the primary and backup keeper. Hutchins’ graduation leaves the Flyers with less experience between the pipes, but as tough and gritty as Hutchins was while battling through multiple injuries, his mobility and first step suffered a bit and both Kurdziel and Ladislaw are capable of giving UD a quicker, more athletic presence as the last line of defense.

In the defense, the bread and butter hinges on the play of the superlative Denny Clanton, a junior sweeper who should emerge as one of the best defenders in the country in 2002. We’ve been singing his praises since his freshmen year and aren’t in the least bit surprised at his progress, most recently being named to the PDL 1st Team while earning PDL Defender of the Year — a free-for-all league comprised of college and semi-pro players from the best college programs in the nation. Big, strong, fast, and always under control, Clanton should give the Flyers leadership and direction from the back line and help ease the transition to a new goalkeeper.

Helping Clanton out will be a number of players. Senior Mike Nsien and junior Dan Thomas have the most experience. Nsien spent much of 2001 in the attack to help kickstart a Flyer offense that sputtered early. By and large he proved a dangerous striker, leading the team in goals (8) and third on the team in points (17). Most of his goals were by sheer grit and determination, using his speed and high work rate to grind out goals, but it was also apparent that Nsien wasn’t a natural attacker. All of this means he’ll move back to the defense in 2002 unless UD’s offensive well runs dry again. Thomas, like Nsien, has serious speed and is perhaps the steadiest outside defender on the team. Thomas isn’t flashy, but brings a lunch pail mentality and is one of those players the coaches can pencil in to neutralize his mark all year.

Jim Graham, a junior from nearby Carroll HS, should see action in the defense as well. At 6-2, no player on the roster is taller and he uses his height advantage to win long-ball headers and clear dangerous crosses. Graham could probably move into the midfield as well if the opportunity presented itself, but even so, he works well from the back in developing the attack to the midfielders and forwards.

Junior Scott Hinshaw arrived at UD as a walk-on from in-state power Westerville North HS, but has proved his salt and now figures prominently into the Flyer lineup. Starting 10 games in 2001, Hinshaw more than held his own as an outside defender and proved to be a tough mark to beat for opposing forwards. While not as technically gifted as other teammates, Hinshaw is athletic and gets more out of himself than any other player — a credit to his hard work and willingness to show the coaching staff he could compete at the D-I level. He had a good summer and could split time between the defense and midfield in 2002, an interesting turn of events because we’re sold on his abilities and believe the midfield will benefit from his efficiency and craftiness.

Joe Hall, a redshirt sophomore from Springfield Catholic, brings much the same talents as Nsien, capable of playing a defensive role or spending time up top as an attacking player. Appearing in 17 games including three starts in 2001, Hall could be described as a utility man who has the well-rounded game to work all parts of the field as matchups dictate.

The Flyer midfield will assume a major overhaul. Gone are a handful of seniors who spent much of their careers occupying midfield positions, but now’s the chance for everyone else to stake their claim and earn a starting position.

The likely names returning from last year include Michael Morales, Jeff Suzuki, Tye Stebbins, and Christian Porto. Morales, a 5-5 senior from Puerto Rico, failed to see any action in 2001 but with the losses to graduation, the chances of him not working his way into the lineup this season are extremely slim. A member of the full Puerto Rican national team, Morales is a quick, agile player who has a good chance to earn significant minutes in his final year.

Jeff Suzuki, a 5-8 junior, saw action in 15 games a year ago (including five starts) and has big-game potential. Creative with the ball at his feet and possessing excellent speed, Suzuki has all the tools to be a reliable scorer for the Flyers, whether it’s in the midfield or up top as a striker. Perhaps Suzuki needs to pull the trigger more often however as he registered just seven shots in spite of quality playing time. Suzuki will be asked to assume a more offensive role this season and help carry the scoring load, either as a starter or off the bench. In either case, he’ll remain in the core rotation as long as he’s ready to take a few more chances because he’s good enough to be a reliable scorer.

Tye Stebbins’ freshman season was a good one. The 5-7 sophomore returns as one of the future stars in the program. Thrown into the fire a year ago to help provide substance in the midfield, Stebbins had to learn on the job but as the season came to a close, he proved to be one of the more reliable players. Stebbins was one of six players to see action in all 20 games, including 14 starts along the way. With three goals and one assist, Stebbins should improve on those numbers in 2002 and be looked upon to create more scoring chances, not only for himself, but his teammates as well. With three years ahead of him, he’s going to be a good one.

Consider 2001 the year Christian Porto came alive. Starting 16 games, the 6-2 junior finished fifth on the squad in scoring, netting four goals and two assists on 32 shots — all of this after a scoreless freshman year. Tall and lanky with long strides and a nice shot, Porto is in the same position as Stebbins and must assume a larger scoring load in 2002 to give the Flyers an honest chance against the top teams on the schedule. If he continues to make the same progress, those chances appear to be relatively good.

Walk-on midfielder Nick Sulich, a product of Columbus De Sales HS, joined the team last year but did not appear in any games.

The returning forwards are very good, but they’ll need help from the aforementioned midfield contingent to make the Flyers a formidable offensive team.

Leading the way up top is sophomore Chris Rolfe, the Fairmont HS product who could turn into one of the league’s best by season end. Without question the most creative player in the Flyer lineup, Rolfe’s craftiness and improvisation is a threat anywhere on the field, whether he’s attacking the goal by his lonesome or serving up relatively easy putaways for his teammates. Rolfe started all but one game a year ago and finished second on the team in scoring with five goals and eight assists. He’s at his best when facing the goal, allowing him to use his deft foot skills to get by opponents and establish an offensive threat. There’s no reason to believe Chris Rolfe won’t be among the A-10’s elite feet by year-end.

Senior Sunday Isename led the Flyers in scoring a year ago and continues to have the respect of coaches around the league. An All A-10 performer for much of his career, Isename netted seven goals and five assists in 2001. When Isename is playing well, the Flyers stand a great chance of winning. In fact, Dayton is 13-0 when Isename scores at least a goal. For all of his extreme quickness, incredible foot skills, and uncanny ability to push past defenders however, Isename has trouble turning it on and keeping it on. Isename’s success in 2002 will be based on his willingness to work harder for loose balls and play every possession to its ultimate conclusion. When he has the ball he excels, but he needs to make a more committed effort to get the ball when the ball doesn’t find him directly at his feet.

Redshirt freshman Jesse Faily sat out all of last year to rehab a knee injury but has recovered completely and should be a major force before things are all said and done. Many believe he could make an impact this year. A heralded player from Oklahoma City, OK, Faily was one of the top recruits in the nation a year ago according to CollegeSoccerNews.com and has a reputation for scoring goals.

THE NEWCOMERS

The Flyers have a large incoming class and it’s a good one. Defenders, midfielders, and forwards all arrive with solid credentials as the coaching staff tapped the same areas of the country that have been good to the program in past years — the tri-state and the Southwest.

Locally, Centerville product Nate Darr brings a strong defensive presence to the Flyers, but also a knack for scoring goals. In fact, Darr kept pace with Centerville teammate Kevin Nugent in the scoring department, an All-American striker who signed with Ohio State. With an uncanny ability to win head balls out of the back or score on balls in the box, Darr’s aerial game should prove to be a major weapon for Dayton this year.

Midfielder Brennan Randquist hails from Cleveland-area power Hudson HS, the same school of Laura Boland, another heralded freshman who plays for the UD women’s team. Randquist was 1st Team All-State and All-Mideast last season while leading his team to the state semifinals. He’s also a captain of the Region 2 ODP squad and won the state title for this club team in 2002.

George Nanchoff brings a family pedigree to Dayton as his father was a college All-American. Like Randquist, Nanchoff was one of the top recruits in the state of Ohio and was recognized by CollegeSoccerNews.com as one of the top freshman to watch in 2002. Playing for Walsh Jesuit HS, Nanchoff has been named 1st Team All-Ohio and ended his high school career 3rd on the career scoring list. Nanchoff is a talented midfielder who will be asked help replace the departures to graduation that took a sizeable toll on the possession-minded personnel. He was named a preseason A-10 All Rookie selection.

Yet another NE Ohio recruit is Dasan Robinson, another preseason A-10 All Rookie selection. The 5-11 defender/midfielder started every game of his varsity career and could see early action as a defensive player in the Dayton lineup to offset the losses of Dan Cerwinske and others. Robinson was named to the Cleveland Plain Dealer Best of the Best team twice and brings considerable ODP and club experience to the program.

Mpoki Tenende is the latest player from hail from the Southwest U.S. pipeline, arriving from Missouri City, TX. The 6-0 scorer finished national runner-up this summer with his club team and if he makes the same contributions as other Flyer players from the same area of the country — players like Sunday Isename and Emmanual Ayim — Dayton’s scoring future just got a whole lot better.

Dan Hartwig hails from perhaps the soccer capital of the country. The St. Louis native played for St. Louis University HS and brings a wealth of game experience in playing against some of the best youth competition in the country. The 5-11 midfielder/defender has ODP experience like the other recruits and should have plenty of chances to earn playing time if he’s ready.

Ian Mulligan, a teammate of Hartwig’s at St. Louis University HS, was named First Team All State and played club ball for the Busch Soccer Club, arguably one of the top two or three club programs in the nation. A 6-0 defender, Mulligan brings the same hardened experience as Hartwig, experience that makes the transition to the college game much quicker.

Scott Balloon is the lone goalkeeper in this year’s recruiting class, leaving the sunny beaches and palm trees for the cold and rainy autumns of SW Ohio. The Gainesville, FL, native reached high levels of success at the club and HS level, but is likely to be the third GK in a three keeper rotation, at least in 2002. The 6-2 Balloon carries much the same build as Kudziel and Ladislaw but the progression of goalkeepers tends to be a slow and major minutes are probably at least a year or two away.

THE SCHEDULE

The slate is very tough, with the first five matches on the road. In fact, Cincinnati, Akron, Oakland, Creighton, and Drake are all good enough to up-end the Flyers if the squad isn’t ready to take care of business from the start. Nationally-ranked Creighton is the marquee program on the schedule, but home matches with Wright State, Denver, and Michigan are anything but certain victories. Denver has proven to be one of the top darkhorses in the country over the last couple of years while Michigan, after many years as a club power, is proving that it can recruit and compete with the best teams in the Big-10 as a scholarship sport.

The A-10 schedule contains the usual pitfalls and this year it’s the same foes that should provide the most resistance. UMass is the defending A-10 Champ and returns enough talent to win it all again, but Richmond and URI won’t be far off the pace. The Flyers shouldn’t either as UD was picked to finish fourth in the preseason poll. Dayton can do better than fourth, but URI, Richmond, and UMass are all road matches in 2002, and that means it’s going to be a more difficult task that last year.

The non-conference schedule should give fans a clear indication of the potential of this team inside the conference.

DAYTON WILL BE SUCCESSFUL IF

The Flyers must get off to a good start and avoid the costly mental mistakes that were primary causes of two losses in 2001. Defensively, all 11 players must mark better and tighten things up in the middle third of the field. If both of these things happen, Dayton can compete — and beat — anyone on the schedule.

Dayton must also develop a stronger scoring punch and turn less predictable. Isename and Rolfe are the names every team will key on, but if others step up and burn opposing teams for concentrating on those two alone, the chances are good for an outstanding season.

DAYTON WILL STRUGGLE IF

An 0-5 start would be the last thing Coach Schureck and his staff want, but it’s entirely possible if Dayton isn’t ready to rock and roll right away. An unlikely scenario no doubt, but the mere mention that the chance exists is reason enough to be concerned about getting out of the gate quickly. A few early wins away from Baujan Field will go a long way for this team. Heading into the home opener at 3-2 or better will be an impressive showing.

If the Flyers struggle with marking and player containment on quick transitions and fast breaks, problems could arise. Long balls and counter attacks were a problem for the Flyer defense in 2001 and could be again in light of the stiff competition.

THE BOTTOM LINE

There are many new faces, a tough schedule with the slightest margin for error, and a few lingering question marks concerning leadership, experience, and mistake-free soccer. The Flyers went from a veteran team to perhaps the youngest in the entire conference in one season. But it still doesn’t mean Dayton should be written off and left for dead. The Flyers bring back quality scorers, one of the top junior defenders in the nation, and a recruiting class that’s as good as Coach Schureck has ever assembled. Like any season there are question marks, but the Flyer program has reach a point where getting past most of them is part of the yearly protocol. Perhaps we don’t have all the answers yet, but by season end we shall. What the Flyers might lack in experience and leadership they make up for in sheer numbers and tradition. And never underestimate the power of knowing you’re expected to win and win often. The program has reached a point where a staff reloads, not rebuilds. There’s no telling how many wins and losses are in store this year, but it’s safe to say that the Atlantic-10, like seasons past, cannot afford to look past Dayton. If a few twists and turns break just right, the Flyers could be the team to fear.