It was this time last year that we took upon ourselves the challenge of sizing up the UD women’s soccer team by looking deep into our crystal ball for answers to all the preseason questions — and quite possibly offering a bold prediction or two along the way. As we’ve done before the start of every season, we touched on the key points paramount to achieving the goals and expectations within the Flyer program. Whatever points of contention we highlighted and whatever points we made in the course of dissecting the season overall, none of them could have forecasted the things to come.

Sandwiched between a season-opening 3-2 road loss to Top-20 Florida and a heartbreaking overtime defeat to Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament were 20 victories in a row – a school record also good enough for longest in Division I in 2004. In fact, not even national champion Notre Dame won more than 20 games. The 20-2 record was a milestone in both wins and winning percentage, but a seventh straight Atlantic-10 season title proved to be equally satisfying, especially since it preceded a conference tournament title just days later. In what has become standard operating procedure for Head Coach Mike Tucker and his staff, their program finds a way to take a step forward every year by some fashion of excellence or another. While another opening round loss in the NCAAs stung a bit, the level of soccer over the course of the season was consistently good. Even on the off days, the Flyers knew how to make the most of limited chances.

The beauty of the women’s program has been its autonomy over the years. While the names and faces change, the results stay the same. No matter how many question marks pop up entering a new season, the coaches and players swap them with exclamation points by year-end. Sometimes getting there has taken a number of twists and turns along the way, but conventionality being unimportant as it is, the program continues to bend and flex subconsciously, perhaps the case from doing it for so many years and doing it so well.

How hard it must seem to project the 2005 soccer season on the heel’s of a 20-2 record one year prior. To some, anything but perfection is a step back, while others will insist on a deeper run in the postseason. Whatever the case may be, no program is ever too talented to rest on the laurels of past success and given the senior departures on last season’s squad, there’s really no time for such romanticism anyhow. With a restructured A10 schedule and new non-conference foes, personnel issues are just the tip of the iceberg. The good news is Dayton has been in this position before and for seven seasons past, nobody else inside the conference has been able to assume the bragging rights so firmly displayed on the Flyer mantle. Any oil futures market trader will tell you that past performance is not indicative of future results. All of that may be well and good, but we’re talking soccer balls, not off-shore drilling. There’s no safer pick than UD.

PERSONNEL LOSSES

Dayton must perform a quintuple-bypass of sorts in order to plug the holes vacated by last year’s senior class. Tops on the list is finding a replacement for central defender Jen Simonetti, the A10 Defender of the Year and 2nd Team NSCAA All-America selection. Simonetti’s hard-nosed playing style ramped up the entire team’s level of play and her amazing consistency over her career puts her near the top of all-time Flyer defenders. Directly in front of Simonetti is midfielder Tesia Kozlowski, another consistent 4-year player who earned All-Conference honors on a yearly basis including last year’s A-10 Tournament Most Outstanding Player. Her leadership in the midfield will be missed, but her ability to play at an elite level against top national opponents defined her innate abilities. While never the goal scorer some thought, she found herself assisting others and more than one player will likely be asked to fill her shoes in 2005. In goal, Stacy DeLuca held the starting job for most of the season and earned a GAA of just 0.58 en route to 17 wins. With the departure of talented junior GK Sarah West, Dayton will be searching for an immediate answer between the posts. In the back line, someone must replace gritty defender Leah Phelps, perhaps the most underappreciated player on the team (and in the A10) over the last two seasons. Phelps’ play last year was strong enough to make a case for conference Defender of the Year. Instead, she was inexplicably omitted from both A10 all-conference teams. Phelps will be sorely missed. The lone forward lost to graduation is local product Jessica Melvin, a non-starter who could pressure the goal with her speed.

THE RETURNEES

Everything begins up front with senior Reba Sedlacek, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year who notched a team high 14 goals to go along with six helpers. Big and physical, Sedlacek causes all sorts of problems for opposing teams, wearing down players while wearing out the nets. Maybe the best adjective for Sedlacek is reliable, and UD will rely on her for much of the goal scoring once again. Anything short of a monster season would have to be characterized as surprising given her talent and experience. Judging by her three goals in the preseason, she’s in rare form already.

If Sedlacek is option #1 on offense, fellow senior Katie Lowstuter is #1A. What Lowstuter lacks in scoring, she makes up for in feeding the ball to players that do. Blessed with a bevy of foot skills, she has improved her physicality every year and no longer gets shoulder-charged off the ball. Instead, Lowstuter is now the one pushing and shoving on the pitch despite her pint-sized 5-3 frame. There’s no better conduit on the team between the offense and defense and if Lowstuter has a repeat performance from 2004 where she tallied a team-high 11 assists (4 goals), another All-Conference selection is waiting.

Nestled around Sedlacek and Lowstuter are a number of midielders and forwards with lots of budding talent to help jumpstart the offense.

At the forward position, senior Meghan Borysiak has a chance to find a starting role after working herself off the bench in her first three seasons. A consummate worker bee, Borysiak runs balls to their dead end, which is another way of saying she puts pressure on defenders and forces them to play a clean ball under duress rather than making it too easy for the opposition. Appearing in 14 games a year ago, one of her two goals of 2004 proved to be among the season’s most important as she found the net just before halftime against Rhode Island to tie the score at 1-1. The Flyers were getting outplayed to that point, but her tally changed the tide and opened it up for a 5-1 romp in a critical conference match. She’s looked good in preseason play and is one to watch closely.

Looking to build on her A-10 All Rookie selection in 2004, sophomore Natalia Walters came on strong at year-end and finished the year with three goals and a pair of assists. Perhaps her best effort came against Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament and it’s hopefully a sign of bigger and better things to come given her speed and playmaking ability. With nine starts already under her belt, she should be ready as long as she’s healthy. Walters did not appear in the preseason.

Fellow sophomore Jen Leslie saw action in 18 matches and scored once. A likely addition to the depth chart at forward, Leslie plays physical and can prove to be a kickstart when the Flyers are playing tentative.

Along with Leslie, second-year player Dara Elk came off the bench for much of the year, but did notch a pair of starts. While scoreless in 2004 on 11 shots, Elk has a high upside in her game and more playing time should bode well for her Flyer future at forward — or even at outside midfielder. Held out of the preseason, fans must wait to see her sophomore debut.

A continuing theme among the sophomore class is Amy Lopez, a player with extreme potential that only needs harnessed with more experience. Lopez is a directional player who uses her speed and dribbling ability to run north and south as she takes on defenders one vs. one. She saw action in all but one match a year ago and earned 11 starts – tops among all frosh. Lopez tallied three assists but failed to find the back of the net in spite of several close calls. Once Lopez takes the lid off and gets her first ringer, look out because she is can be dynamic in transition.

Sophomores Gretchin Giner, Alli Foust, Michelle Bruck, and Anna Russell were limited to just a handful of matches last year as they battled the depth chart at midfield and forward. Look for them to generate momentum and challenge for more playing time.

Sophomore Kristen Persichini should have no trouble finding the field again as she was a mainstay in the midfield as a true freshman. Notching three goals and one assist, she appeared in 19 matches and earned starter minutes in many of those contests. At 5-8, Persichini is a big target in the middle third of the field, but her future might ultimately be settled in the defense somewhere. She earned HS All-America status as a defender at Walsh Jesuit HS and given UD’s losses in the back line, fans should watch intently to see where she ends up. Whether as a defensive midfielder or not, Dayton needs her size to balance against some of the smaller surrounding players.

Helping Lowstuter and possibly Persichini in the midfield will be senior Laura Boland, another big target who can throw her size around and win loose balls. Boland has been consistent her entire career and was one of the few players to start every match in 2004, but she’s taken a passive approach at times to her aggression while moving forward with the offense. While perhaps lacking any sort of premeditated design, Boland has the wherewithal to be a reliable scorer for the Flyers, but the first step in that is to start taking shots. She’s tallied just two goals in three years despite starter minutes and an All Rookie selection as a freshman. There’s nothing standing in the way of a more potent offense from her but her willingness to get a little more selfish when the opportunity arises. Fans saw that against Minnesota in the preseason when she took four shots – tops on the team.

Another option in the midfield is 5-7 Jaime Monahan, the lone junior on the roster. Monahan made strides after an uneventful freshman season and worked herself into eight matches last year. Monahan is like Boland and Persichini – a big target in the midfield asked to help transition the team between the top of the boxes. With the loss of Kozlowski, perhaps more than one player will be asked to help fill that void and Monahan can use that as an opportunity to work her way in the lineup on a more consistent basis.

This season marks the debut of redshirt freshman April Carbajal, the former Miss Kentucky Soccer and HS All-American from the Commonwealth. Battling back from a knee injury just before the start of fall camp in 2004, Carbajal is a strong candidate to see immediate playing time now that she’s fully recovered. Blessed with gifted foot skills to create off the dribble and move possession forward, her style may someday remind fans of Tesia Kozlowski. She saw heavy minutes in the preseason and while a bit up and down, she should find her groove given time.

Defensively, the Flyers should be in relatively good shape despite losing Phelps and Simonetti. We arrive at this conclusion knowing that over the past four seasons Dayton has lost significant players in the defense including four consecutive A10 Defensive Players of the Year. For every hole however lies a player or group of players of players willing to fill it.

Perhaps most capable is senior Alicija Bredlo. The 5-7 Canadian played in relative obscurity over her first two seasons but blossomed into a starting sweeper/central defender in 2004 by starting every game and holding together a defense that yielded just 12 goals in 22 matches. Bredlo filled the position of two-time A-10 Defensive Player of the Year Erin Showalter and her effort last season has already earned her a preseason All A10 nomination. Aside from her steady play in the defense and good decision-making, she also finds ways to score, tying for third on the team with five goals a year ago.

Flanking her on one side is fellow senior Jacqueline Luehrs. More often working at left fullback, Luehrs’ calling card is substance over style. Her excellent speed minimizes her size disadvantage against larger forwards. Luehrs is more of a positional defender and rarely chooses to attack on the other side of midfield. Fans should look for added offensive punch as conditions allow that will make Luehrs dangerous going forward.

The other option in the back line is rising sophomore Courtney Sirmans, an All-Rookie performer a year ago and preseason A10 selection in 2005. Sirmans’ greatest physical advantage is her 6-0 height and she uses it extremely well to win balls in the air and in large part intimidate opposing strikers. What’s underrated however is Sirmans’ speed. Once she gets moving and her long legs turn over, she poses a very dangerous threat to attack from the back line. When not attacking, she has the biggest boot on the team and biggest in the program in several years, able to drill a ball cross-field well over 50yds. Given her size, speed, and physicality, she split time at forward last year and ended up cashing in on five goals and five assists – good for fourth on the team. Sirmans split time in the midfield in the preseason to help win loose balls. She may play a number of positions this year as circumstances dictate.

A likely candidate to replace Simonetti is veteran Stacy Palumbo. The senior from Fairfield has come so far since her freshman year, working her way from occasional bench player to daily starter – including 18 games a year ago. Palumbo is steady and surefooted, reads the field well, tackles hard, and has improved her foot skills over the years to the point where she can now carve her way out of trouble. Her experience and leadership will prove invaluable all season but her ability to avoid the bad touch is what usually sets her apart.

Senior Amanda Kuntz brings experience in goal and as a fifth-year player, knows what the expectations are defensively. In fact, Kuntz is the only returning keeper so she corners the market. Someone must step in and replace Stacy DeLuca and the likelihood is the job won’t be a season-long duet. That means the battle for starting goalkeeper will take on high priority as the season opener nears. She will battle for the job alongside two newcomers to the program.

THE NEWCOMERS

The most logical place to start is where we left off – in front the Flyer net tending the goal mouth. Sophomore transfer Niki Reed comes to the program from Vanderbilt and brings top experience at the national development level. A Fairfield HS standout, Reed was recruited out of HS by Dayton and in part due to a North Carolina GK transfer she played behind at Vandy, the opportunity to return home and showcase her skills made all kinds of sense. Hand-picked to the U-19 national team camp, she has a huge foot and reads the field very well. Reed should be stiff competition for the other keepers and projects as the opening night starter.

Freshman Stacy Chew, a 5-8 goalkeeper from nearby Mason HS, rounds out the keeper trio the staff has among their 2005 options in goal.

The Flyers added defensive reinforcements with players capable of also moving into the attack.

Dublin Coffman star Annette Bonasso brings defensive prowess to the back line and helped the Shamrocks to a pair of state titles while en route to 2nd Team All-Ohio honors as a senior. With good size and speed, she fits the prototypical UD mold as a hard-nosed defender that can move to the midfield when needed. She teamed with Top-10 national recruit Kelly Quinn (Virginia) – brother of Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn – to earn the Rocks a #1 national ranking during this time. Fighting some injuries a year ago, Bonasso did not appear in either exhibition match.

Amanda Gallow hails from Lakota East and missed all of her senior year with an injury. But that hasn’t stopped the slender 5-8 bottle of energy from making waves in the two exhibitions. Able to play anywhere on the outside flanks, she’s already been used both on defense and in the Flyer attack. Her terrific speed and pace with the ball should keep her somewhere on the field all year.

Fellow in-state recruit Rachel Kohntopp hails from Toledo St. Ursula Academy. Kohntopp missed the first exhibition but saw her first duties against Ball State and adds defensive and midfield capabilities that should strengthen team depth at these positions.

The midfield and forward positions are oftentimes interchangeable and the remaining newcomers should find time somewhere in the attacking half of the field. In-state products Anne Mariscalco, Corey Shubitowski, and Stephanie Wurth will be counted on to help replace the midfield loss of All-Conference standout Tesia Kozlowski.

Mariscalco played locally at Centerville HS and also with the Dayton Soccer Academy. A regional ODP performer, she was recruited by the likes of West Virginia and Tennessee and should find most of her time somewhere in the midfield as a playmaker and ball winner.

Shubitowski, an All-District performer, comes to UD from Columbus Bishop Watterson HS and according to the coaching staff brings a physical presence to the field alongside underrated speed.

Tallest of the three at 5-7, Wurth hails from Toledo St. Ursula Academy, the same school as fellow classmate Kohntopp and also senior Meghan Borysiak. Wurth earned 1st Team All-State and All-Region honors, along with time with in the ODP regional pool. Her ball-winning abilities and distribution skills will be called upon to help UD win possession and ultimately do something with it.

Outside of Ohio, the Flyers bring Keystone State product Chelsea Ashe, Meredith Pesce from New York, and left-coaster Kim Sacher from San Diego.

Ashe, at 5-4, was recruited by Villanova, James Madison, and Sacred Heart after helping Peters Township HS to the state quarters and semis in her junior and senior seasons. Slowed by a knee injury, Ashe saw action in both exhibition games and appears to be fully recovered. The coaches like her footwork and feel her injury might have scared off programs that may end up regretting it.

Pesce prepped at Harborfields HS in Greenlawn, NY, and while also standing just 5-4 and lacking prototypical size, will be somewhere in the mix as a depth charge in the Flyer midfield or forward positions.

Sacher is the first recruit from the state of California brought in by Tucker’s staff, and might be the first Golden State player in program history. Gifted with speed, athleticism, and footskills, Sacher should have no trouble finding playing time this year and has All-Rookie potential alongside a few of her classmates. A member of the national power San Diego Surf SC, the Surf and Colorado Rush are considered by many to be the top two women’s soccer clubs in the nation. A 1st Team All-State and regional pool performer, she led Patrick Henry HS to the state Final-4 in 2002 and 2003.

THE SCHEDULE

The 2005 slate of Flyer opponents looks more challenging than 2004, whether by design, circumstance, or luck of the draw. Several quality non-conference matchups are on tap including nationally-ranked games against West Virginia, Virginia, and Texas – all away from Baujan Field. Also looming away from home is perennial region power William & Mary, along with Great Lakes foes Ohio University and Butler. The non-conference home schedule includes Furman – returning the favor after a home game against the Flyers a couple years ago – along with Wright State and Cincinnati.

The conference season has been shortened to nine games to accommodate the addition of Charlotte and St. Louis, which means the Flyers are not playing A10 contender Rhode Island, along with UMass, Duquesne, and St. Louis. Avoiding Rhode Island probably doesn’t hurt UD’s chances by any means, and St. Louis is a strong program as well. With a home date with Richmond, the Flyer conference schedule is very attractive – attractive enough to assume Dayton the favorite in every game.

Clearly, Dayton’s NCAA at-large dreams rest within the non-conference schedule. At least one victory over the ranked teams is a must, but it won’t be easy considering they are all away from Baujan Field. Still, 4-4 looks like an absolute worst-case scenario, with 6-2 well within reach. Add the A10 schedule and the wins are clearly there for another NCAA at-large opportunity.

WHERE SUCCESS WILL REST

Finding a solid rotation of 16-17 players will be difficult early on given the talent and numbers in the program. It might take 2-3 games to get an idea of what combinations work well together, but it cannot take much longer. The season begins with tough matches and UD needs profile non-conference wins to secure a NCAA at-large bid. The senior class is a large one and loaded with talent and experience. If they lead by example and the underclassmen learn from it, good things should happen. The Flyer defense will be steady all year – at least good enough to win on nearly every night. Dayton must put the ball in the net on a more consistent basis as 1-0 and 2-1 victories over less-talented opponents may eventually trip them up and turn into 1-0 losses. If Coach Tucker’s offense ignites and has the firepower to put up 3-5 goals a night against teams UD should beat anyway, it not only improves the chances in-conference, but gives Dayton a fighting chance to win those critical non-conference matches against the big dogs when holding extremely talented opponents to a goal or less is unlikely.

POINTS OF CONTENTION

The Flyers have been amazingly consistent over the last seven seasons: consistently exceptional on defense and consistently inconsistent on offense. Not to say the offense hasn’t pulled through in the clutch, but too often the Flyers use late-game heroics or a timely bounce to pull ahead and salt away the remaining minutes by leaning on the back line. Opportunistic and talented for sure, but sometimes lacking the killer instinct. If there are players unable to step up and aid Reba Sedlacek in the scoring column – either individually or by committee – Dayton could find itself in trouble against competitive teams. This program has too much talent and scoring ability to fight the scoring droughts against inferior competition. If nothing else, added scoring punch, or shall we say a more consistent scoring punch, will greatly ease the hearts and minds of the coaches and fans.

Lastly, injuries can change everything. Fortunately, UD has depth at nearly every position, though some players are more unproven than others. If the Flyers start losing personnel to the infirmary, anything can happen.

THE VERDICT

After all of this, it’s the perfect time to mention that Head Coach Mike Tucker earned his second A10 Coach of the Year honor last fall. Quietly yet painstakingly going about his business, Tucker had delivered every year. With a gaudy .731 winning percentage and conference winning percentage nearing .900%, the results clearly speak for themselves. At the helm for his 11th season, he has in front of him what might be the most talented team in program history. What the squad might lack in a national difference maker or two, they make up for in sheer numbers and overall talent. Looking up and down the roster, finding the best chemistry will not be easy because there are so many possible solutions. On paper, this team has what it takes to rejoin the Top-25 rankings and earn an unprecedented 8th A10 title in a row. The true tale of the tape may ultimately rest in the NCAAs however. After suffering tough first round losses in recent years, the players and coaches are eager to make amends and move on into later rounds. The talent is clearly there and while we won’t predict what might happen in the NCAA tournament, what we can say is Dayton will be in the bracket somewhere once again.

To make matters more interesting, the A10 preseason picked the Flyers to finish first. No surprise for sure, but added clarity indeed. Everyone expects success anymore and that’s a good thing. The truly great teams like the pressure of being the team to beat. While the Flyers were largely up and down in the preseason, the bar has been set and anything short of A10 titles and NCAA bids is no longer acceptable. Such is the life of a Top-30 program looking to make the journey into the Top-15.