DAYTON (OH) — As far as seasons go, the 2011 UD Men’s Soccer season was largely forgettable. Dayton struggled out of the gate with dreadful offensive punch, limiting their scoring chances that resulted in a mindboggling 1-11 record in the first 12 matches. For a program following up an equally sub-.500 finish in 2010, the program was hemorrhaging with a non-competitive product in consecutive seasons. The Flyers salvaged a bit of pride once conference season began, going 4-4-1 in the A10 – although they finished just 0-2-1 in the remaining three matches to salt away a golden opportunity to make the A10 postseason tournament. When the smoke cleared, UD finished with a 5-13-1 overall record. That said, they did play better as the season progressed. Part of the two-year struggle has been roster turnover. When nearly half of the players recycle and a significant portion of the roster is international, team chemistry, experience, and cultural/language barriers make for extremely difficult work on the part of the Flyer coaching staff. In short, there has been no continuity on the field and 2011 was far too similar to 2010 in that regard.

The turnover is once again large and in charge for 2012. Of the 30 players on this year’s roster, 17 are freshmen, redshirts, or transfers. Over half of the personnel will suit up in a Dayton uniform for the first time in their careers. That’s rarely a recipe for success, but the new faces might be a step up in talent than prior years, making an impact on the field sooner and more pronounced. At least that’s what two exhibition victories suggest.

DEPARTURES

When you finish with just five victories and score just 18 goals in 19 matches, sometimes turnover and graduation can be addition by subtraction. In UD’s case, hardly anyone graduated.

Defender Jack Pearson was a four-year starter in the back line and earned the most respect by those in the A10 conference, but was point guard to poor tactics and decision-making at times that led to Dayton’s inability to maintain possession of the ball, let alone carry it forward into scoring opportunities. Starting goalkeeper Tyler Picard also graduated, but he and Pearson are the extent of the major losses. A couple other names cycled out of the program and were not major components on the field.

RETURNEES

The good news is all significant cogs from a 5-13-1 team return for 2012. The bad news is nearly everyone returns from a 5-13-1 team in 2011. You can look at it as a problem or a solution. Considering UD has not had continuity on the roster in nearly four seasons, we’re just happy to see a number of familiar faces looking to grow as players and teammates on the field. Continuity is what UD needed most, even if it meant holding over some players yet to make their mark on the program. The hope is by playing together for another season, the chemistry on the field will start translating into victories.

Senior forward Evan McCreary – one of the few seniors on the team – finished second in points last year (2g, 4a) and has good size and a fast motor to cause problems in the offensive half of the field. In order for Dayton to take a step forward, he must take on a significant share of the scoring load this year. His experience is invaluable, but he’s also out there to put the ball in the net. The Flyers need McCreary to score seven or eight goals this year.

Junior Abe Keller took top honors in scoring last year (3g, 5a) and has a knack for turning a solid work rate into something positive. Like McCreary, being one of the more experienced players on an otherwise inexperienced team suggests a greater scoring output is vital to UD’s chance this year.

A host of other mids and forwards will battle for playing time including Victor Duru, Andres Acevedo, Ryan Lyn, Daniel Berko, Jordan Beckett, and Austin Smyth. All of them need to take a step forward in 2012 and go from being role players that prefer deferring to others, to go-to players looking to call their own number. Perhaps Berko is the horse to bet on; in the preseason victory of Detroit, he displayed game-changing speed and a hearty work rate that will be tough to keep off the field in spite of his undersized frame.

The holding midfielders and defenders mostly return in tact as well. David Abidor, Jonathan Nelson, and John Howe were off-and-on starters a year ago and have some quality match experience under their belts. At least one of them needs to have an All-Conference type of season to help mitigate the inexperience at goalkeeper.

NEWCOMERS

In many respects, UD’s payday will teeter on the massive list of newcomers looking to see their first action in a Flyer uniform. Some are redshirts and some are transfers, but most are true frosh still wet behind the ears out of high school. Some of these new faces will have no choice but to grow up quickly. After two subpar seasons, the program is running out of time to develop a crop of impact players – the Flyers need to recruit a few capable of changing the program right away.

That’s where the sunlight starts to creep over the Flyer horizon – at least that’s the indication after two exhibition victories over #25 Bradley (3-1) and Detroit (2-0). A bevy of new faces chewed up giant swaths of minutes in each game, giving the coaches and fans an opportunity to do some initial talent evaluation. While the long-term prognosis is still unknown, there may be indication that UD has come out of the bear market and recruited a few bulls.

Of the 17 new faces, five are defenders and four are goalkeepers. That’s a good thing considering UD’s organization in the back line has suffered greatly in recent times. Christopher Lenning, a 6-3 defender from Gothenburg, Sweden, showed solid promise in the preseason and has the size and soccer toolkit to get quality minutes all season. Dayton has no choice but to throw a true freshman between the pipes however; all four goalkeepers on the roster are fresh out of high school. Chris Froschauer, a 6-3 product of Union, KY, got the nod against Detroit and looked fairly competent – if nothing else he wields a canon foot.

Midfield help will come from another group of newcomers consisting of grad student Eddie Jones (Gloucester,UK), and freshmen Michael Frasca (Aurora, IL), Tyler Tumberg (Bloomington, MN), and Maik Schoonderwoerd (Warmel, Netherlands).

Up top in the offense, keep an eye on Joel Carter and Ryan Peterson, two 5-11 strikers benefitting from redshirt seasons last year. Their familiarity with the program, teammates, and coaching staff should give them a leg up on the competition.

SCHEDULE

Things start off with a bang as Dayton hosts Ohio State and Kentucky to open the season. The Buckeyes were national runner-ups a few years ago and the Wildcats are equally dangerous. The first road trip of the season takes place in Charleston, SC, where the Flyers battle highly-respected Furman and host Charleston in the Aaron Olitsky Memorial Classic.

The annual Flyer Marriott Classic takes place the following weekend – UD’s in-season tourney – as they host Green Bay and Eastern Illinois. The four-game home-stand finishes up with Gardner-Webb and IPFW. The Flyers finish the non-con schedule with a match at SIU-Edwardsville.

The A10 schedule kicks off Oct. 5th against new A10 member Butler University, followed by St. Louis two days later. UD travels to Xavier the following week and plays at St. Bonaventure and at Duquesne a week after that. The five-game road trip ends with two matches in Richmond against the Spiders and VCU Rams. A home weekend of UMass and Rhode Island rounds out the regular season.

The non-conference provides plenty of challenges – especially right out of the gate. Dayton will know what they are made of after the first weekend, and that’s a good thing considering the Flyers have a lot to prove.
The A10 will provide no reprieve as the coaches picked UD to finish in the lower half of the league race, proof that many believe Dayton has a lot of ground to make up before once again being considered a contender in the conference. The last time that happened was 2009, and yet it seems like a lifetime ago. As quickly as UD has fallen off the radar however, they can put themselves back on it if they push all the right buttons and rebuild things in the right way.

THE FLYERS WILL SOAR IF…

Nothing would help a program lacking confidence like going 1-0-1 or 2-0 against Ohio State and Kentucky to open the season. Dayton had a good spring and solid preseason, but those are not always excellent indicators of regular season strength. This is where the rubber meets the pavement and these two matches are golden opportunities to earn some lost respect over the last two lackluster seasons.

The Flyers can grind out wins if they can find the back of the net. Last year goals were like four-leaf clovers – often talked about but rarely seen. Once one of the most prolific scoring programs in the country, UD’s offense has gone dry over the last two years. Dayton can grind out some victories if they can put two goals on the scoreboard each night.

Ball possession will dictate everything. Things were much improved in the preseason and bode well if the bad habits of 2011 are exorcized completely. Kick-and-run, impatience, and a lack of poise were as much a reason for UD’s demise as anything the opponents threw at them. If UD can maintain possession of the ball, the other team cannot score. That’s a start.

DAYTON WILL SPUTTER IF…

Goalkeeping will be an interesting side story all season. No matter who guards the net, we’re guaranteed that a true freshman will be given the honor. It’s not an ideal situation and the Flyer defense must work extra hard to avoid putting their young goalkeepers in difficult situations.
If UD falls back to kick-and-run soccer, the fortunes of 2012 will look a lot like 2011. The giveaways, field position, and numbers disadvantages will cost Dayton dearly if they try to go for the home run when singles and doubles will get the job done.

Dayton must put shots on frame and pressure the opposing back lines into
poor clears and bad giveaways. This is not a team full of All-Conference or All-Region stars. It’s okay to win with a blue-collar effort however and relentless attention to detail. Cheap goals are still goals and the Flyers don’t need to worry about style. Focus on substance and the results will come. If these virtues are absent, there’s trouble.

If some of the frosh don’t make an immediate impact, UD might not have enough answers over the course of a long and grueling season. There’s been a talent problem and fans are itching for some fresh blood to energize and excite.

PREDICTIONS

It’s hard not to like the spring results and preseason play. There’s a definite step forward taking place on the UD men’s soccer team and there’s no single reason why. Some of the returnees have gotten better, redshirt seasons have benefited others, a handful of newcomers appear capable of contributing right away, and graduation might have purged some bad karma as well. Any way you look at it, it’s difficult to do much worse than 2011. For that reason alone we find ourselves more optimistic and cautiously excited about what might happen this year.

But let’s not get carried away. The Flyers are still short on talent and experience compared to most teams in the upper half of the A10. This reality has crept up on no one; you are what your record says you are and a five-win season last year has most critics putting the enthusiasm on hold.

The A10 tourney expands to eight teams this year because of offseason league expansion. Making the Top-8 will remain challenging, but we’re convinced the Flyers don’t start the year 1-11 again either. A .500 non-conference record is possible. After that, let’s see where the chips fall. If the product is improving every week, UD has an opportunity to surprise a few people and finish higher than predicted.

We’re predicting a season-long journey of ups and downs. But the ups may be higher than we’ve seen over the last two seasons. Dayton is still capable of losing to nearly anyone on the schedule, but they may also be capable of out-dueling far more teams than a year ago. On paper, last year’s team was an underdog almost every night. In 2012, some of those matches might be a push.

Success will depend on how many of those push games UD can ultimately win. Progress will be measured in winning the ‘winnable’ games and avoiding the bad losses. By doing just that, Head Coach Dennis Currier’s team will set themselves up nicely for a top-half conference finish. A rags-to-riches season however? We’re not quite there yet.