DAYTON (OH) — The Dayton Flyer women’s soccer team hit all the right notes in 2011 and enjoyed one of their best seasons in a decade, finishing 19-4. All of this despite finishing third in the A10 and losing in the NCAA First Round to the Louisville Cardinals. Make no mistake however, UD was the best team in the league and only a pair of heartbreaking road losses at Richmond and LaSalle (both finished ahead of UD) prevented Dayton from going undefeated inside the conference. Hosting the A10 Tournament, the Flyers shredded the competition by out-scoring Rhode Island, Richmond, and UMass 11-1 en route to the postseason title.

Along the way, forward Colleen Williams earned All-America honors for the second consecutive season. Juliana Libertin joined Williams with a double-double in goals and assists, while freshman Kelsey Smigel added 10 goals to make Dayton the only team in the nation with a trio of 10-goal scorers.

Perhaps the defense went unappreciated however as all the goals were being scored. Despite a few lapses here or there, the senior back line of Kelsey Miller, Kathleen Beljan, and Emily Kenyon saved UD’s bacon on numerous occasions. Miller was a four-year starter with All-Conference credentials, Beljan was a Hermann Trophy Watch List candidate, and Kenyon had perhaps the best season of any Flyer defender in the last 10 years. They all graduated, leaving Head Coach Mike Tucker with the difficult task of piecing together a new defense from far less experienced or recognized players.

The addition of Butler and VCU create additional challenges within the A10 and further complicate an already unbalanced schedule.

DEPARTURES

Miller, Beljan, and Kenyon were three of the best defenders in the league. Miller provided the size in the central defense to win high balls and basically organized the entire back line. Beljan worked the flanks and used her speed and tenacity to earn All-Conference status her entire career. But the loss of Emily Kenyon may be the most difficult to replace. Her physicality, game-saving speed, tackling, canon-like clearances and free kicks, and flip throw-ins made her a jack-of-all-trades talent capable of butting heads with the greatest variety of opposing players. Once a midfielder, she switched to defense as a senior and had one of the best individual years of any Flyer in nearly a decade.

The midfield wasn’t gutted like the back line. Off-and-on starter Kelsey Owen graduated. Additional depth was lost in the attack as Josie Grant also grabbed a diploma.

Apart from these losses, the nucleus returns. But the losses were severe on defense – perhaps the biggest turnover loss on defense from a talent perspective in Mike Tucker’s career.

RETURNEES

Lethal Weapon 3 is locked and loaded for another banner season on the Hilltop. Williams, Libertin, and Smigel made for one of the most potent offensive trios in the country last season. All three scored at least 10 goals, while ‘Willy’ and ‘Jules’ passed for at least 10 assists to pull off the ‘double double-double.’ A year older, Smigel the sophomore, Libertin the junior, and Williams the senior remain the past, present, and future of Flyer soccer. Big things are expected from all three but whatever anonymity they might have enjoyed last season (admittedly very little), opposing teams will be looking to throw the kitchen sink at them. Fortunately they complement each other nicely. Williams works as bulldozer, Libertin dribble-drives at defenders to stretch the field, and Smigel adds good spacing and clinical finishing.

Junior Andrea Todak and sophomore Amanda Sivic will look to fill in as necessary to keep legs fresh. Sivic certainly has the credentials to be very good.

In the middle third of the pitch, senior Alexis Garcia returns at central midfielder to once again control possession and act as primary conduit between the back line and forwards. Dayton plays well when Garcia gets a lot of touches. She’s got a quick change of direction, passes well, and sees the field. Her best attribute however is tackling – unusual for an undersized central midfielder. When the Flyers need a physical challenge at the ball, Garcia lowers her center of mass and performs textbook slide-tackles. Finishing fourth on the team in scoring in 2011, (3g, 3a), there’s room to improve those numbers in 2012.

Alongside Garcia is junior Stephanie Emery (2g, 3a). She started nine of 23 matches a year ago and should move to full-time starter this season. Possessing good size and able to absorb a lot of punishment, she can be exceptional at times as an energy boost and ball winner. Consistency has been the crutch however. Too often she surrenders easily or the work rate is lacking.

Rounding out the familiar midfield faces are senior Alysha Mallon and junior Sarah Senoyuit. Mallon has split time on the flanks as both a defender and midfielder, possesses good speed, and makes sound decisions with the ball. Her experience is perhaps most key as she tracks back to help defend. Senoyuit is 5-10 and plays more of a withdrawn central midfield role or central defender. In many respects, UD’s season hinges upon her ability to continue improving to help offset the defensive losses. Her height allows her to win balls in the air and she’s big enough to provide physical resistance, but too many clears have no targets and are quickly countered for repeated danger. Senoyuit’s ability to significantly reduce unforced turnovers will set the tone for the entire defense in 2012.

So who picks up the pieces in the back line? Pencil in sophomore Allison Klinefelter and junior Meghan Scharer. Klinefelter came on strong at the end last season and saw action in 18 matches. She has good speed and strong anticipation of the ball. Scharer started 17 games last year and possesses a similar skill set. Don’t count out sophomore Chelsea Rose who, despite her 5-1 frame, has the ability to play well in stretches.

Between the pipes, senior Katherine Boone and junior Jordin Melchert will battle things out for playing time all season. Neither one is the obvious starter and both have struggled to separate themselves from other goalkeepers around the A10. Boone has more experience and is pretty sure-handed, but is not nearly as athletic and struggles mightily with goal kicks. Melchert has the athleticism and a bigger boot, but inconsistent hands and suspect decision-making frequently put her in precarious situations in front of the net. If both struggle, sophomore Heather Betancourt might get her chance.

NEWCOMERS

A class of 13 freshmen arrive this season, one of the largest classes in recent memory. Headlining the names is MF Alyson Smigel, sister of Kelsey and former star player for prep national champion Walsh Jesuit HS. A pair of Canadians in Ashley Campbell and Nicole Waters bring additional credentials and an ability to put the ball in the net. Both have good frames and equally good pace. Eden Prairie, MN, product Lesley Chilton may go rover all season, splitting time between the offense and defense as game plans dictate. Katie Krejsa is another tall forward from Illinois with solid credentials and upside. The Flyers also recruited some help in the back line to bolster the depth chart.

By and large however, this is not a season where a lot of newcomers will be asked to carry a significant portion of the freight.

SCHEDULE

Dayton wastes no time measuring where they are as they travel to Austin, TX, to play the Texas Longhorns. They finish up the opening weekend with a Sunday match at UT-San Antonio. The home opener follows a weekend later with a nationally-televised matchup against NCAA-regular Boston University on Fox Soccer Channel, followed by Northwestern two days later in the return game of a home/home series the Flyers won 2-1 in Evanston last season. UD remains at home to play pesky Central Michigan out of the MAC and DePaul from the Big East. The non-conference portion continues with a second road trip, this time heading east to play NCAA tournament-tested Harvard and Northeastern. The non-con wraps up with a home game against cross-town rival Wright State on Sep. 14th.

From there, the A10 schedule commences and it’s a very unusual one at that. The Flyers play nine league matches – the first four are on the road and the last five are at Baujan Field. A good start to the conference is paramount with games at UMass, URI, Butler, and St. Louis. The final five include Xavier, SBU, Duquesne, Richmond, and VCU. Notably absent is league-contender LaSalle and rival Charlotte.

The good news is Richmond is at home and Lasalle is avoided entirely. The bad news is UMass is on the road and a poor start to the league season might be unrecoverable. Of course, a great start in league play sets the table for a potential big finish on campus over the last three weeks of the regular season.

It’s a difficult schedule from start to finish, but not unmanageable. While it lacks some of the name-brand teams of prior schedules, the ones on the schedule are probably better than many others rated higher. The Flyers will be prohibitive favorites in some, slight favorites in others, and an underdog once or twice.

THE FLYERS WILL SOAR IF…

Should Dayton rebuild the defense with a unit capable of holding quality opponents under two goals a game, UD has a chance to do special things. Goalkeeping has not been UD’s strong suit for at least two seasons and the field players must recognize their role and accept a greater responsibility for preserving clean sheets. The offense is good enough to put numbers on the scoreboard, provided they aren’t required to play from behind.

If Williams, Libertin, and Smigel are anything close to their form of last year, few teams will be able to stop all of them at the same time.
If Senoyuit and Emery provide a more consistent effort in the middle of the field and dig balls out for possession, UD will control the clock, and in all probability control the scoreboard as well. Dayton then goes from a very good team to a great team.

A good start to the season is always important. The Flyers should be underdogs at Texas in spite of national rankings or RPI numbers. If they can return home with two wins under their belt, things are looking up.

DAYTON WILL SPUTTER IF…

Dayton’s overall defensive posture in a pair of exhibitions against the Haitian National Team and Miami, FL, was downright atrocious at times. The main defensive liabilities were poor marking and suspect efforts by midfielders and strikers to track back and pick up a mark. If that same defensive effort lasts all season, this team cannot outscore everyone. There will be days when the ball doesn’t go in the net in spite of the offensive domination.

If goalkeeping does not improve, everything else will be more unnecessarily challenging. In years past, Flyer fans could count on the UD goalkeeper to win a game or two each season. Now they must hope a game or two is not lost from it. Dayton’s goalkeepers have the tools to succeed, but they must also have the mindset and command confidence in the box – from their own teammates and the opposition.

Senoyuit and Emery must have their best seasons in a Flyer uniform. If they struggle to win balls and frequently give away possession in the middle third of the field, Dayton will not have enough answers for everyone.

PREDICTIONS

The exhibition matches were invaluable tools to gauge the temperature in the room. But we walked away with more questions than answers.

Offensively, the Flyers have all the firepower they need to post a winning score. Defensively, the back line is brand new and will go through some growing pains. That’s expected. What concerned us the most was the lack of defensive posture by the upperclassmen, seemingly content to focus on goal scoring only and at the expense of their young teammates in the back line. Was it a premonition or an aberration however?

This team – like most Flyer teams – is not good enough to win by just showing up and rolling the ball out on the field. The winning formula in a decade of dominance has been work ethic, and in most cases that’s a gold star that cannot be masqueraded with fakery. The work rate was simply not there in the preseason exhibitions and that has tempered our enthusiasm somewhat. Long, hot, two-a-day practices can turn legs into rubberbands. We’re hoping that’s all it was – though other teams went through the same thing. We’re still bullish on the season, but believe the bumps in the road may be larger than we first expected. The Flyers may still get from A to B, but it might require a few tough lessons along the way to provide the necessary course correction.

The key to the entire season is the defensive attitude by the strikers and midfielders. That means players like Colleen Williams, Juliana Libertin, Kelsey Smigel, Stephanie Emery, Alysha Mallon, and Alexis Garcia must put as much emphasis on their ability to frustrate an opponent with defensive pressure as they do recognizing the need to carry the scoring load. Great players play both ways and Dayton did not demonstrate that sufficiently before the season opener. But they have the ability to.
With the unbalanced schedule of the A10, it’s hard to pick a clear favorite.

Dayton was chosen by the coaches as the lead horse to win it all, but last year was a perfect example of the best team finishing third. Because of that and the odd league schedule for the Flyers, we think a second place finish is still pretty solid. The A10 is a tough league to win on the road. Another 7-2 conference finish is not out of the question.

It’s certainly good enough to get the Flyers in the NCAAs for the fourth season in a row if they also take care of business in the non-conference however. Fans can talk about team strengths and weaknesses all they want, predict conference finishes, and dissect the schedule front and back. All that ultimately matters for the UD Women’s Soccer team is reaching the NCAA Tourney. That’s the measuring stick and anything short of that is considered an unacceptable outcome.

We think this is an NCAA team and the bid will come – either automatic or at-large. But 2012 might be a season of more peaks and valleys than we’re used to. Things may happen somewhat unconventional. Which means the run of play from one game to the next might create some moderate indigestion. As long as the product improves over the course of the season however, it’s a journey still worth taking – in spite of the bumps in the road.