The Road to the Final 4

February 17, 9:30 PM—The Flyers lose their sixth game of the season, but play well against Temple. Most have us as an #8 or #9 seed and fans are very confident that we will be dancing. Certainly, winning three of the next four will get us to 21-7 and a strong #9 or #10 seed.

March 2, 9:30 PM—The Flyers play their best half of the season and blow out the Dukes in Pittsburgh. We are now looking at a #7 seed and maybe better after the A-10 tourney. We are definitely in, no problem.

March 4, 4:00 PM—Lousy game at Virginia Tech. Just when we seem to be playing good basketball, the bottom drops out. Maybe it is just because of the quick road game after a big win. Come to think of it, maybe just one more win would make things just a little bit easier come Selection Sunday.

March 12, 6:00 AM—It’s awfully early in the morning, but there were a number of upsets in the last couple of days. Maybe I should get up and check all of the Internet sites known to man just to see where we land.

March 12, 7:00 AM—It looks pretty good. ESPN still has us as a #7 seed, but the Sporting News has dropped us completely. CNNSi and collegerpi.com have us as #10 and #11 seeds. I’m worrying less, but still have a case of the nerves.

March 12, 4:00 PM—Did Arkansas really win the SEC tournament? Can this be happening?

March 12, 6:30 PM—Did the last 150 minutes really take 3 days? Greg Gumble is ready to get us on the edge of our seats and starts off with the East. Since Temple will probably get the number 2 seed, we will probably not end up here. That’s okay though, because it would be a lot easier getting to Cleveland.

March 12, 6:38 PM—Did they really give North Carolina a #8 seed? UNLV gets blown out all season and gets a #10 seed? This is starting to get a little nerve wracking.

March 12, 6:40 PM—Here we go, it’s the Midwest bracket. It can’t be. St. Bonaventure in the Midwest? That means that we can only be in the West. If St. Bonnie is a #12 seed and we just got beat by them, where does that leave us?

March 12, 6:46 PM—The top of the bracket comes and goes and no Dayton. I cannot believe it, we have been left out. The bottom of the bracket is now being shown and still no Dayton. I am now screaming at my wife who is wearing her UD sweatshirt for good luck, “This cannot be happening!” My God, we are down to the last two teams, the #6 and #11 seeds. YES!!!! There it is #11 Dayton. Who cares who we play. We are in! Look at that. We get to play Mister Plastic Hair, the man who stole our big man recruit less than 10 months ago. Life is good. It seems that the win over St. Joe’s was more than just frosting on the cake. Those three points may have just saved us from a season filled with nothing but frustration. After playing so well for so long, we may have had to watch it all on television. It is amazing what playing for a top five conference can do for some teams and what playing for the next five conferences cannot do for their teams. Only one team from the MAC? It just doesn’t seem fair.

What has happened in the last 4 months now means nothing. We are just as good as anyone else now. There are 64 teams that have a chance to get to Indy. Some have a much better chance than others. Just what are our chances? Can we win a game or two? Could we really get any farther that that? Just how good are we? How do we match up? Who might we play after Purdue? These are all questions that will be answered in the next week. Could there be any more justice than having an opportunity to play Purdue? This is the same university that litterly stole a high school recruit from us last spring. Just what does Purdue bring? Are we looking at a matchup that we can play with? One has to wonder why we have to travel to the West while Pepperdine, also an 11 seed, has to travel to the Midwest. A game against Indiana would also have been a great deal of fun, but I think I like Purdue just a little better.

Let’s talk a little bit about Purdue. Here is a team that was in the driver’s seat to win the Big 10 with a week to go but lost to Indiana on the road to fall to third place. They also lost to Wisconsin in the first game of the Big 10 tournament and is currently in the midst of a two game losing streak, something that UD has not experienced all year. This is also a team that lost to NCAA bound Ball State by 20 at home. Just a quick look at the wins and losses screams one thing. Slow down the ball!!! This is a team that does not do well when the score is low. If there is one thing that we do well its keep the score low. Average score in their wins was 80-64 with 18 of 21 games with 70 or more points. Average score in their losses was 62-72 with 7 of 9 games under 70.

March 12, 9:30 PM—ESPN2, Hoops 2Nite predicts that Dayton will defeat Purdue. At first glance, neither team shoots very well from the field. UD shoots the three a little better at 37.7% to 35.7%. Purdue however, shoots the two better at 48.4% to Dayton’s 46.4%. Dayton is more likely to take a three with 34.3% of their shots coming behind 19’9″ while Purdue is a little more cautious at 29.6%. Dayton is also the better free throw shooting team at 71.5% with Purdue at 68.4. Dayton also enjoys a better rebounding margin. There are a number of similarities with neither team looking to be the far superior.

As a whole, Purdue is more experienced than the Flyers, starting 4 seniors and 1 junior. The size matchups are very similar with UD having a slight edge advantage at center with Ashman having a three inchs over Greg McQuay (8.0 PPG). Brian Cardinal (14.2) at 6’8″ and Mike Robinson (12.2) at 6’6″ start at forward with Robinson staying close to the basket for most of his points. The guards, Carson Cunningham (10.9) and Jaraan Cornell (12.6), both like the three with Cunningham, at the point, being the more accurate of the two.

Rebounding is almost a mirror image of the Flyers with no one averaging over 6.4 rebounds per game. These teams are very similar in size, experience, and capabilities. I like the fact that we are the 11 seed. Purdue, despite their two straight losses, will probably be looking past us and to (3)Oklahoma for a second round match-up. With that in mind, and the Flyers ability to bounce back after a loss, I feel a 63-59 win will take us to 23-8.

Now it is on to Oklahoma. This is beginning to sound more and more like 1984. We are out west and ready to take on a highly ranked Oklahoma team in the second round. That Oklahoma team was #2 seeded and led by All-American Waymon Tisdale. Roosevelt Chapman wanted the country to know who the real All-American was and did so. This #3 seeded Oklahoma team is led by Eduardo Najera (18.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG) a 6’8″ Senior forward who will keep Yuanta Holland huffing and puffing. Maybe Yuanta can have the game of his life and borrow a bit of Velvet. This will be a much bigger obstacle than a slumping Purdue team. Should we have trouble taking on Najera man to man, you can look for Oklahoma to turn to several outside threats and start pumping threes. They have 4 guys shooting over 40% on threes that can pop them from all over the court. This is a team the uses three guards and two big men. If we can get good production from Ashman and the Green/Holland combo we will have a fighting chance.

I hope that I can come back next week and preview the next two games, but before I go, I have to throw in my two cents worth on the issue of Oliver Purnell and the potential of his moving on. I have to say that I am disturbed to hear his non-commital words whenever he is approached about the Georgia Tech job. I really don’t care what is in his heart, he should be making it very clear that he is not interested. He can always change his mind after the season, but this is not the time for anyone associated with the team to even be thinking about this. As Barney Fife would say, it is time to “Nip it in the bud.”

What are the chances that he will actually leave? I would put my money on the fact that we will have a new coach next year. The only thing that will keep him here is if we go far in the tournament. It is rare that a coach will leave his team for another after an Elite 8 appearance. Let’s hope for the best.