Through nine games, the UD men’s basketball team is unbeaten in all but one, so it should come as no surprise to see fans thinking ‘NCAA Tournament’ after the fast start. The Flyers have already claimed a few scalps including postseason resume’ builders Louisville, Holy Cross, and Creighton, but I’m still not sure what kind of team we have — or even if it’s a postseason team at all. As much as UD has proven over the course of the first four weeks, just as much remains in question as the non-conference portion of the schedule winds down. It’s great to be 8-1 and it’s great to have a few quality wins thus far, but as the Flyers increased their votes in both the AP and Coaches Top-25 polls this week, I’m still hesitant to label this team a legitimate March Madness contender three months from now. I’m desperate for just a little more empirical data.

As of this writing, UD has the best record of any team in the A10 Conference. Head Coach Brian Gregory also has a trio of quality wins that meet or exceed any three victories from conference foes. Were the season to end today, Commissioner Linda Bruno would crown the Flyers conference champs and call it a day. But it’s not a fair metric and for reasons I will point out, UD has a lot of proving — and improving — to do before the chest-pounding turns high octane.

Foremost in my mind is the scheduling hurdle. Dayton has played just one game on an opponent’s home court out of the first nine matches. The Flyers looked anemic throughout the 53-48 loss at SMU as both teams displayed highly questionable play for 40 minutes. The SMU loss looks like a quality defeat with the Mustangs residing inside the Top-10 of the RPI, but it’s tough to remember a good stretch of basketball by either side when reminiscing about the CSTV webcast. Void of any honest road wins, Dayton has gotten fat at home where wins should be expected no matter the opponent. The lone exception is a gutsy neutral court win in Cincinnati against the Louisville Cardinals, a win that should pay dividends all year. No question, UD has a solid portfolio thus far, but largely fed from the friendly confines of UD Arena. Dayton will be sizeable underdogs against Pittsburgh and North Carolina so I’m not convinced those games will tell us much. The real measuring stick comes in the first six games of the conference season — an A10 schedule that doesn’t afford the Flyers two home games in a row all the way to the A10 Tournament.

Defense remains one of UD’s strengths and that should keep the team in most games as long as it continues. The Flyers are second in the league in Defensive FG%, yielding just .382% from the field. On the other hand, free throw shooting is a painful .654% and charity tosses may ultimately decide two or three games before everything is said and done.

The Flyers are perimeter oriented this year, but three-point shooting is among the worst in the A10 at just .327%. Outside of Brian Roberts and Monty Scott, nobody can knock down the open jumper with any regularity. On the plus side, sophomore Charles Little has blossomed inside the paint as a viable third cog, while junior Norman Plummer has found his groove after an early season suspension and slow start upon his return. To the team’s credit, UD patched wins together without the services of Plummer and Andres Sandoval. Gregory’s team is at full strength now and has a nine-man rotation. Kurt Huelsman and London Warren have had their moments of good and bad, while fellow frosh Marcus Johnson has remained the most consistent of the newcomers, adding much-needed athletic punch to the lineup.

Perhaps most unsettling however is rebounding, a Flyer staple since Oliver Purnell took over the program. Dayton makes a habit of finishing in the top two of the A10 every year in rebounding margin, but that’s in serious jeopardy as UD currently stands 10th. Things have gotten worse on the glass with five beatdowns in a row, completely uncharacteristic for a team more athletic than any Flyer team of the recent past. Perhaps this is where having just one senior hurts UD the most.

Taken into context, all of these items are readily fixable, but 1/3 of the season is now behind us so the window of opportunity to fix them gets shorter every day. Bugaboos that aren’t fixed by midseason typically end up season-long weaknesses. There is still time, but not enough to approach them with a casual attitude. That’s because things only get more difficult as the season moves on. A pair of Top-5 teams loom on the road, while the conference season follows directly thereafter. There are few secrets inside the conference because everyone has everyone else scouted. There’s no such thing as hiding liabilities in the A10. In some ways opponents know your weaknesses as well as you do.

The best part of all of this is Dayton continues to find ways to win. Largely up and down all year, UD has performed well enough to beat the good teams, but just well enough (and no more) to beat the not-so-good teams. This year’s victories were last year’s losses. They now believe they will win a close game at the end. The fact of the matter is all of the games have been close, but the team threw a strike in eight of nine tries. That’s pretty good no matter who you’re bowling against.

UD has a chance to prove they are full-time contenders over the next four weeks and not a team getting fat on home cooking. This team simply isn’t good enough to entertain complacency and still expect to win — not the way we’re rebounding, shooting free throws, and missing three-pointers. Defense got us here, but it’s not enough to get us where we need to go to earn an NCAA bid in mid-March. Those challenges are clear and present, but the opportunities equally so to take the next step in the evolution of a tournament team.