It is amazing how things can change for the average fan in a matter of days. Just a few days ago, every fan of the University of Dayton was basking in the afterglow of a victory over arch nemesis, the University of Cincinnati. There is always a discussion of who we would like a victory over more than any other team. It is my guess that UC would win that competition hands down. After more than a decade, we had the opportunity to actually gloat following our almost annual game with UC. The only problem was that we had to wake up and play another game.

That game came against the Miami Redhawks, certainly a team that many thought we should handle rather easily because Wright State had just done so. As with many things in life, all good things come to an end. Our little dream world of going 9-0 before the Duke game went up in smoke. It didn’t take long before the lynch mob showed up at the sheriff’s door. Immediately, fans began to call for the coach’s head. Some wanted it done before the next game.

Every team loses games it should win and the University of Dayton is no exception. It has been 27 years since Indiana went undefeated to win the NCAA Championship. Am I suggesting that UD will not lose any more games this year? Certainly not. All I am suggesting is that the season is not over because of one loss in game four. Yet, we are not living in the Land of Oz either.

Last week, I wrote about how the program has progressed over the Purnell years. I doubt that anyone could say that there have not been improvements during that period of time. The question that has come up during that period revolves around the issue of speed. Have we progressed far enough, fast enough?

I spoke to a good friend of mine who is fairly knowledgeable about college basketball (UD in particular) after the article was published. He took exception to my statement that this is a team that should find itself in the Sweet 16 by year’s end. It wasn’t that UD didn’t have enough talent, but more that it is very difficult to be one of the last 16 standing.

Granted, being one of the last 16 still playing after that first weekend can have a lot to do with not only ability but also luck. Sometimes you draw a team that is underrated or just plays out of its mind for 40 minutes. Sometimes a missed call can cost you a game. All told, there are many things that can determine if your team will make it through those first two rounds. However, one of the most important is getting into the tournament, period.

Since 1986, the University of Dayton has made it to the Big Dance a grand total of 2 times. We are on our third coach since the beginning of those 17 years. This does not seem to be just an Oliver Purnell problem. Whatever has happen to UD since the glory years is well entrenched.

There are over 300 Division I teams fighting for those 65 births every year. As a result, only one out of every 5 make it in each year. Overall that doesn’t sound too bad until you realize that the vast majority of those spots go to the BCS conferences. But do not despair; there is hope for the non-elite.

In the last ten years there have been 60 teams that have received more than one invitation to the NCAA Tournament that are not part of a BCS league. Six of those 60 have come from the A-10.

What you don’t see there is the University of Dayton. Half of the league has been there more than once. It would have been seven teams if Richmond had been allowed to participate in their league playoffs the year before they joined the A-10. You have to ask the question, “Why them and not us?” As they say on the Ohio Lottery ads, “You can’t win if you don’t play.”

Although certainly more difficult than just getting into the party, making it to the Sweet 16 is doable. In the last ten years, there have been nineteen non-BCS teams that have made it at least once. Seven, including Temple and UMass, have done it more that once. In the ten years before that, twenty-three non-BCS teams made it to the Sweet 16, including UD in 1984. The fact of the matter is that in the last 20 years, there have been at least two non-BCS teams that have made it to the Sweet 16 every year.

It is a goal that must be considered not only a possibility but a priority. This is a team that has enough talent to not only make it to the Tournament, but also stay there for a while. This can only happen if everyone does their job and does it on an every game basis. It never ceases to amaze me when I hear after a game that they weren’t focused enough or didn’t play hard enough. How can any member of the team say that after either a win or a loss?

I have no doubt that Purnell talks to these players on a daily basis on just how important the next game is. I have no doubt that they go into a game with the belief that they will give 100%. Yet, when the time comes to actually do it, there is a falling off. I’m not sure that a finger can be pointed at any one individual or individuals, but as a team (and that includes coaches) they should never allow this to happen.

Before the 1999 season started, I felt that Purnell needed to prove that he could take a team to the NCAA Tournament. It was not only important for his own job security but for the future of the program. There was a large class that would be brought in that spring and he needed a tourney trip to help sell that class. This was the recruiting period that brought Marshall, Finn, and others that have since departed. The same situation exists today.

One visit in eight seasons is not enough. Twenty wins is nice, but if it only gets us to the NIT, it is insufficient. There is too much at the University of Dayton to not get the basketball team into the Top 40 on an annual basis. This seems to be another critical season for the program. There will be either 4 or 5 scholarships available for next fall’s early signing period. A trip to the Sweet 16 would certainly improve the level of player that Purnell could concentrate on.

Should Oliver Purnell lose his job if we don’t make it that far? I don’t think so. He has taken us from the pits to at least a nicer section of town. The question remains if he can take us to the ritzy area. Twenty wins or not, the Administration has to be taking a look at the actual results. Mike Deane was fired at Marquette after winning 100 games in five years. The big difference there was the fact that the program was definitely moving in a downward spiral. However, it does say that wins are not enough. Will another good but not great season show that the Dayton program is not moving in the right direction? Only Ted Kissell can answer that question.