CHANDLER (AZ) — When Tim Wabler took over the job as UD Vice President/Director of Athletics I’m sure he had no idea of what was going to be laid at his feet just three months later. If the announcement of the teams invited to the NCAA Tournament did not send shivers down the spine of the one time baseball star, I’m not sure what would. Sadly, it wasn’t because UD had been selected. It was because deserving teams like Creighton, St, Mary’s and others were not.

As the number of at-large bids given to teams outside of the Big-6 continues to shrink, the entire map of college basketball will forever be changed. Certainly a number of the teams that used to be outside the Big-6 have moved to those conferences which skews the numbers, but the fact cannot be denied. The margin of error that now exists for the University of Dayton to actually play for the national championship is very slim.

It wasn’t too many years ago that teams from the A-10 actually could anticipate a real opportunity to make the big dance without having to win the conference tournament. The last few years has shown that that opportunity is getting smaller and smaller. Imagine being part of the MAC? Despite some impressive wins over the years in the Tournament, they are now shunned as if the level of basketball that they play is no better that the weakest of conferences.

As stated in an earlier article (https://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8330), I believe that UD made the right decisions this year about scheduling for the team that they had available. Their inclusion in the Tournament would seem to solidify that notion. Would the same have happened if they would have had Xavier’s schedule? I’m not so sure. Yet, this begs the question, “Would this schedule work next year?”

This is why Wabler has some difficult decisions to make. I’m not so sure that the formula that UD has used for years to make their athletic program function can continue. It became painfully obvious during Sunday’s telecast, that doing what they have been doing will probably not work in coming years. Unless they can separate themselves from the rest of the 270 non-BCS conference schools, they may have trouble getting back to the tournament. You cannot bank on winning a four-day conference tournament every year.

Currently, the only way that the Athletic Department survives is because of basketball and the addiction that exists among the Flyer Faithful. Take away the belief that we are among the elite in college basketball and I am not so sure that the addiction will continue. When that goes away, so does the money. When the money goes away so do other sports.

This year, UD played 18 home games. In contrast Gonzaga played 12, Xavier and BYU played 15. It is becoming more and more evident that just playing home games for the money involved will not help you get to the tournament. Wabler is almost assuredly going to have to take a look at the system that has been put in place and see how much give there is. There is no doubt that UD is going to have to find ways to improve it’s overall schedule strength and giving up home games may be the only way to get it done.

Understand that improving schedule strength is a touchy situation. It doesn’t help adding Wright State even if they are a top 100 team. It comes down to beating BCS teams, period. You can have a strength of schedule of 50 but if that was attained by playing non-name teams, the selection committee will not be impressed. Who you beat is all that matters. You can lose two thirds of your games against the big guys but if you just beat a few of them, you may have a chance.

We all know that the BCS teams will not longer come to the Arena. They have made that mistake over the last few years and see no upside. Teams that we have played for decades now say no. Even teams that we have had close relationships with such as Notre Dame, Marquette and DePaul haven’t been in for some time. It is time to bite the bullet and follow what Xavier has done. It is time to take the show on the road and play the big boys.

Understand that I am not talking the Temple approach of “We will play anyone, anywhere.” It has to include at least one tournament every year and a handful of visits to Big East and ACC schools. There has to be a plan that will include enough home games that will keep the coffers full. I just question the current scheduling of teams like Creighton, George Mason and other “Mid Majors?” It only shows that we can beat them, not the big boys. Having a sparkling RPI just isn’t enough for schools like UD. I realize there is a fine line, but until we prove that we are worthy, there will be no more Pittsburgh’s showing up on the schedule.

The flow of talent is definitely getting better. Brian Gregory has gotten to the point where he can utilize his players better than before, still learning, but getting where he needs to be. Unless some miracle occurs and a Big 6 comes calling, UD will have to re-invent itself to be another Gonzaga or Xavier. As long and Gregory stays and continues to bring in the right players, UD can return to the place they enjoyed in the 1950’ and 1960’s. They were good and everyone knew it. They were never viewed as a bad loss, if there was such a thing.

Winning solves all ill, but as a number of schools painfully found out, 26 wins may not be enough. A plan has to be put in place where UD gives up some of the money and hits the road. Dr. Curran is a smart guy. He understands that having a good basketball team brings in far more money than it costs. Be it increased enrollment or general fund donations, it has been proven over the years that both of those improve when sports teams do well and it isn’t just at UD. Maybe, just maybe, it will be possible to make budget changes that allows the basketball program to make decisions that will have long-term benefits.

College basketball is at a crossroads. Certainly there are still opportunities for the little guy in the NCAA Tournament, but they have been limited and it will continue to shrink. Let’s hope that the University of Dayton is in the right place at the right time and can control its own destiny. Being on the bubble is not as much fun as it used to be.