BEVERLY HILLS (MI) – Now that the Red and Blue game is in the rearview mirror, it’s time to move on to some real basketball. Next stop: the “Secret Scrimmage” vs. Huggy Bear’s Mountaineers on October 22nd; then the exhibition game against Damon Goodwin’s Capital University squad seven days later and finally the season opener with Lindenwood on 11/7.

In the meantime, we still have some prognostication to peruse, so welcome to the final installment of “From the Swamp’s” “CBB Guessing Game” tripartite extravaganza.

In case you missed Part 1, click here:

https://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36096

Need to check out Part 2? Here you go:

https://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36107

On with the show!

The Sporting News

Mike Decourcy released his “Way-too-early top 25 for 2022-23 season” way back on April 5th:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/college-basketball-rankings-2022-23-kentucky-ucla-top-25/ux3bcoa9s0k7bx8772mosjhq

TSN Mike hasn’t published jack squat in the way of projections since then and he didn’t include UD anyway, so forget him.

Wikipedia

Okay, so they are not in the prediction biz, but Wiki does have a fairly comprehensive 2022–23 NCAA Division I men’s basketball season page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%9323_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_season

One rule change to be aware of: Flopping will now result in a Class B technical foul. Previously players called for flopping received a warning before a technical foul was assessed.

The Division I Board of Directors also adopted a series of changes to transfer rules:

– Transfer windows were adopted for all Division I sports. Student-athletes who wish to be immediately eligible at their next school must enter the NCAA transfer portal within the designated period(s) for their sport. For men’s basketball, the window opens on the day after Selection Sunday and runs for 60 days.

– Student-athletes who experience head coaching changes, or those whose athletic aid is reduced, canceled, or not renewed, may transfer outside designated windows without penalty.

– Transferring student-athletes will be guaranteed their financial aid at their next school through graduation.

ECB 2022/2023 College Basketball Preview (Digital Only)

The First Ever Official 2022/2023 ECB College Basketball Preview Magazine is offered on Etsy. It’s available as a digital copy only, so once the magazine is officially released you’ll get it in your email.

“32 conference previews. Pre-season awards. 85+ team previews. Top 50 players.”

All yours for only $5.00! You can order it here, because I won’t be:

https://www.etsy.com/listing/1270022763/preorder-ecb-20222023-college-basketball

College Sports Madness

Their Top 144 countdown is still ongoing…as the name implies, it usually takes 144 days to complete. We’ve got a thread about it on the UDPride MB:

https://www.udpride.com/forums/showthread.php?t=35954

And you can check for updates here:

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/mens-basketball/top-144-previews

But CSM has already released the only prediction that we really care about– and UD landed in the #30 spot. After waiting 114 days for it, their profile seems long on stats and short on analysis (as in none):

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/21007

2022-2023 Overall Rank: #30
Conference Rank: #2 Atlantic 10

Projected Postseason Tournament: NCAA

By the Numbers:

Scoring Offense: 69.2 (220th in nation, 7th in conference)
Scoring Defense: 61.2 (15, 1)
Field-Goal Percentage: 47.8 (18, 2)
Field-Goal Defense: 40.8 (45, 3)
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game: 6.5 (255, 10)
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage: 36.1 (53, 4)
Free-Throw Percentage: 68.3 (284, 12)
Rebound Margin: 5.8 (30, 2)
Assists Per Game: 14.4 (78, 4)
Turnovers Per Game: 12.4 (154, 7)

Their bracket has #8 seed Dayton facing #9 Notre Dame.

Ken Pom

Saving the best of the online savants for last, Ken Pomeroy has just released his 2022-23 preseason rankings and Dayton (for the first time) is in his Top 25 at #24:

https://kenpom.com/

Finally, we have a lengthy profile from the lone analog magazine rack holdover, Lindy’s.

Lindy’s

Being ranked #20 certainly does have its privileges. It means that UD gets a full-page writeup and multiple picks for the All A-10 honors. The headline for the Dayton preview proclaims:

Going Big, Dodging the A-10 Boogeyman

The Good: First a moment of respect for the best name in college basketball: that’s Kobe Elvis and that’s not close. He’s one of five starters back from a team that tried to arrive early last year but messed itself badly in key moments. DaRon Holmes II and Malachi Smith–All A-10 Freshman performers a year ago– are ready for their next steps.

The Bad: The history of A-10 teams with heavy preseason hype is not good. For example: St. Bonaventure last year. Most high quality teams can run a .750 conference winning percentage and get an easy 2 seed.This team does that in the A-10 and it is at best an 8.

The Prediction: There is a chance to make a statement in The Battle 4 Atlantis. Opening with Wisconsin and then a potential swing at Kansas. Pull that double and a .750 A-10 run isn’t so bad. That would get Dayton its first bid since 2015.

Predicted A-10 standings: UD, SLU, VCU, Richmond, Davidson, GMU, Loyola, UMass, Fordham, SBU, URI, GW, LaSalle, St Joe, Duquesne. Two bids: UD and SLU.

Bottomline on UD in the A-10: Clear team to beat and will be a tough out in the Big Dance

A-10 Honor Roll

POY: DaRon

Top Defender: Holmes

Top NBA Prospect: II

1st Team All A-10: Deuce

2nd Team All A-10: Toumani

3rd Team All-A-10: Mali

Flyer Stuff

Top Newcomer: Mike Sharavjamts. A classic point forward turned in an impressive performance at the 2022 Nike Hoop Summit. Nicknamed “Mongolian Mike” Sharavjamts’ name is already showing up on NBA Draft boards.

Best Shooter: Mike Sharavjamts. From Mongolia but attended high school in Ohio. Gives Dayton another perimeter threat on a squad returning players who scored 60+ PPG.

61.2: The Flyers scoring defense last year was 15th in D-1.With all five starters back, look for opponents to again have trouble finding the hoop.

Outlook: How far can they go? The Flyers will be motivated after missing out on an A-10 regular season championship. Holmes leads the way with all five starters returning from a team that was tied for 2nd place in the A-10. It was the least experienced team in D-1 at the start of last year. Not so much in 2022-23.

Dayton returns 163 of a possible 175 starts; 90% of possible minutes played; 91% of scoring; 92% or rebounding; 99% of blocked shots; 91% of three point shots and 90% of FTs.

With all that production if they catch a few breaks the Flyers are as dangerous as teams come.

2023 Honors Candidates: DaRon Holmes II possesses enough size and skill to develop into a superstar. He set a single season record with 81 blocks, third most in the A-10 and third most by a freshman in D-1. Malachi Smith has the potential to become one of the best PG in the country.

Keep An Eye On: Kobe Elvis, after transferring from DePaul, settled into a key role at Dayton. His three point shooting potential presents opponents with a serious threat from the perimeter.

Top 150 Players: Deuce is ranked #44, while Toumani Camara checks in at #143.

Top 100 2023 prospects: Jazz Gardner is #62; George Washington III is #84.

Finally, “The Hometown Coach” Mark Adams tweeted out his own very bold prediction for the 2022-23 University of Dayton Flyers:

The same guy who called @ButlerMBB to the Final Four in July 2009, called @RamblersMBB to the Final Four before the 2018 tournament, and told you @UHCougarMBK to Final Four two years ago is ready to tell you @UHCougarMBK and @DaytonMBB will play for @MarchMadnessMBB championship.

At the end of the day, the only college hoops preseason prognostication that really carries any weight is the AP Poll. Will UD be ranked in the Top 25 to start the season? We shall find out when it is released at 12 noon on Monday, October 17th.

PS David Jablonski from The DDN has a vote and he has Dayton at #20.

That’s it “From the Swamp.”
You can email me at: [email protected]