Over the last three games, Dayton has managed only one win but has played their best basketball of the season. Tough losses to Louisville and Cincinnati prior to a recent DePaul victory were hard to accept because the Flyers were doing everything right with the exception of making the game-winning shot. Look back even further and Toledo’s last-second win over Oliver Purnell’s club could have been a confidence buster for the remainder of the season.

With four losses by a combined margin of 10 points, the Dayton Flyers are a few of mistakes from being a legitimate 8-1. Even in the loss to Miami (Oh), the Flyers managed a halftime lead before losing composure. So what is the point of all this? The point is that UD can beat anyone in the A-10 when they execute and give a solid effort. As Fordham visits the friendly confines of the UD Arena on Saturday for the conference opener, the Flyers may actually have a better shot at winning the A-10 West this season as compared to last year. The league is weaker, the teams are more vulnerable, and Dayton’s record hides quality talent and one of the most underrated defenses in the Midwest — especially Dayton’s 2-3 zone.

Nick Macarchuk’s 1998-99 Fordham Rams arrive in Dayton with a 6-3 record and a couple of dangerous players. After you speak of Bevin Robin and Alejandro Olivares however, there’s not much left.

Robin is the floor general and playmaker that every team needs. After leading the A-10 in scoring as a frosh last year, his numbers are down but his importance is more critical due to the loss of 6-9 Maurice Curtis. Robin, the former A-10 Rookie of the Year, can do a little of everything: shoot, rebound, handle the basketball, and dish to open teammates. Unfortunately, he is so far and above the talent that surrounds him, he often tries to do too much. Robin has a tendency to force the difficult pass, take the untimely shot, or play out of control when his team needs an answer — one of the reasons he has more turnovers than assists.

Robin’s backcourt teammate is Jason Harris, a pint-sized shooting guard who can hit some outside shots but rarely ventures into the paint to contest the tall lumber. Harris has improved his ball-handling and possesses an assist-to-turnover ratio that is greater than 2:1. Still, Harris cannot be characterized as a sharpshooter and has trouble against strong defensive pressure. If anything, it is Harris’ defense that earns him playing time.

Ever since the Rams left the Patriot League’s non-scholarship era and entered the Atlantic-10 a few years ago, nothing has hurt Fordham more from competing against fellow conference members than an inability to field solid frontcourt players. This year’s team is no exception. Fordham’s inside players are oversized, underskilled, and overmatched against nearly every other A-10 team.

The one bright spot is 6-9 Alejandro Olivares, a frontcourt player who has blossomed into a decent contributor since last year. Olivares is second on the team in scoring and leads the team in rebounding. In many respect he is similar to Mark Ashman — solid offensive moves, decent defense, but rarely looks to pass once he gets the ball in the low post.

Flanking Olivares in the forward slots are 6-4 Scott Harmatuk and 6-9 Duke McKamey.

Harmatuk is far and away the best 3-PT shooter on the team (.480%) and is Fordham’s version of Cain Doliboa. Harmatuk strength is shooting treys and it shows in the boxscore — 12 of his 15 field goals this season are from behind the arc. Don’t look for him to penetrate at all.

McKamey is the only other frontcourt player with the size to compete against physical teams. While he has the height, his skills are somewhat limited. McKamey can’t beat a team alone and perhaps is only a temporary answer for Fordham until Macarchuk hits the recruiting trail and signs a more talented alternative. McKamey’s playing time is a strong reflection of Fordham’s frontcourt woes — only a freshman, he must overachieve every night to hold his own.

Off the bench, 6-9 freshman Steve Canal helps out in the frontcourt but is very much like McKamey — inexperienced and young. Canal puts up similar numbers to McKamey and could press for the latter’s job before everything is said.

A couple of other Rams see playing time in a reserve role but their contributions are too small to merit significant mention.

As a team, Fordham struggles with everything a mediocre team tends to struggle with. The Rams shoot only .403% from the field, .319% from 3-PT land, and .668% from the charity stripe. Compliment these stats with few go-to guys and mediocre defense and it’s no secret why Macarchuk’s team should battle for the cellar once again in the A-10 East.

While Fordham is 6-3, wins have come at the hands of Holy Cross, Yale, Iona, FIU, Manhattan, and Richmond — none of them are A-10 caliber but Iona and FIU are dangerous. Losses are to BC and St. Johns in walkovers and a bad loss to Cenn. Conn. State. Clearly, the Rams have not been tested often, but they have managed to win against lower mid-major programs in spite of their anemic statistics.

The Dayton Flyers own every advantage on Saturday. Tony Stanley is playing like a A-10 first teamer, Edwin Young has bounced back with great efforts after a poor outing against Toledo, and Mark Ashman has been reliable all year. Cain Doliboa, Andy Metzler, David Morris, and Yuanta Holland have each been impressive at various times over the last three games.

Oliver Purnell’s team could not be playing much better. This club is not littered with HS All-Americans but there are enough players capable of making the team a successful one in the A-10 this year. Expect UD to take care of business against an outclassed Fordham squad and to do likewise against an improved St. Joseph’s team later in the week.