DAYTON (OH) — Here’s what we know: at the current pace, it’s only a matter of time before Xavier University overtakes the Dayton Flyers for possession of the all-time series lead that dates back to the pioneering days of peach baskets and hand-stitched leather balls. What’s unclear is whether Dayton can turn things around and one day re-claim the bully mentality they grew accustomed to prior to the arrival of Pete Gillen at the school down south. With Sunday’s contest quickly approaching and Thursday’s collapse still smoldering, the Flyers are looking for anything positive at this point.

It’s hard to imagine, but UD once had a series lead so seemingly untouchable that during a 69-game stretch from 1950 to 1982, Xavier took it on the chin 58 times. Times have changed and so have the roles. Entering Sunday’s contest against the Jesuits, Dayton has dropped 13 of the prior 16 matchups – most of them with personnel considered underdogs by the oddsmakers. But why stop there. Dayton hasn’t earned a road victory in the series since Jimmy Carter was cleaning out the Oval Office.

To say the times have been bad for the Flyer Faithul is like telling Captain Smith the Titanic has sprung a leak. While we’re piling on, Thursday’s collapse at LaSalle gave the Flyers seven losses in the last 10 games and a chair alongside other programs on the outside of the NCAA bubble looking in. Dayton must play their way back into the NCAA tournament with an improbable string of victories to close out the regular season, nevermind a couple extra in Atlantic City.

All that matters right now however is Dayton’s fortunes against a nemesis that refuses to loosen a stranglehold on SW Ohio supremacy. The best rivalries bring together two programs equally matched in talent and substance, but that hasn’t been the case for over two decades. Since 1984, Dayton has gone an unimpressive 14-33. Nearly all of Dayton’s victories were upsets over more highly-regarded Muskie teams inside the friendly confines of UD Arena. The numerous losses were forecasted by most outsiders. The Flyers aren’t keeping pace and the series has lost its’ edge.

There’s no better indication of this than to talk to fans on both sides of the fencepost. Xavier fans expect to win – on any court. Dayton fans hope to win – only at home. It may not seem like a lot, but attitudes reflect altitudes and UD continues to search for a pocket of air that never materializes. Down south, Xavier’s jet stream efficiency only makes things harder to swallow. The game still means something, but not as much to our opponent as we’d like to believe. That happens when the outcome feels like a formality rather than a possibility. Unfortunately, the X Factor – Chris Wright not Xavier’s #10 national ranking – is still unavailable and Brian Gregory’s squad must continue to find answers without their frontcourt difference-maker.

Dayton’s NCAA chances officially flatline for the last time with a loss to the Musketeers on Sunday. With such a poor showing late in the season, UD desperately needs another headline win to counter the bad losses. But the work won’t end there. Dayton needs at least three wins in the final four contests and that means at least another road victory over St. Bonaventure or Fordham. On paper, Dayton seems capable, but the last six weeks have suggested otherwise. As narrow as recent losses have been, the Flyers squeaked by Louisville, Rhode Island, Holy Cross, St. Louis, Miami, and Akron. Had Dayton dropped half of those and held on during recent losses to George Washington, LaSalle, and Duquesne, we’d still be having this discussion. At 17-8 (5-7), the record is an accurate reflection of overall play. A healthy Wright would have turned at least two of those games around, making 19-7 (7-5) squarely off the bubble and into the Big Dance as a #9 seed.

For now, fans can only hope Dayton takes care of business against the one opponent they can’t afford to get swept by. UD’s inability to perform in the biggest series on the schedule is like Groundhog Day and the ghost of John Cooper rolled into one giant Greek tragedy. The only difference is Dayton’s misery spans several coaching staffs. Until Dayton gets Jim Tressel-ized – injected with a serum by a leader who knows, understands, embraces, and demands absolute supremacy in the game that matters most, the habit of finishing second-best in a two-horse race is here to stay.