DAYTON (OH) — After four months of basketball, Flyer fans were asked to wait another 15 minutes. That’s how long it took CBS to unveil the Midwest bracket and include the Flyers in the 2009 NCAA Tournament, the program’s first appearance since 2004. Dayton earned the #11 seed and will play #6 West Virginia in Minneapolis on Friday afternoon. Over the last two days, Dayton turned more bubblicious by the hour as conference tourney upsets snatched at-large bids away from teams once thought to be as good as in. At one point this weekend, Creighton and St. Mary’s College were dancing. After Mississippi State and USC won their conference tournament, something had to give. As it turns out, the Flyers snuck in by the skin of their teeth. Only Maryland and Wisconsin, both #12 seeds, received at-large bids lower than the Flyers.

The Mountaineers, coached by WVU alum Bob Huggins, finished 23-11 and 10-8 in the brutal Big East. West Virginia is one of the most underrated programs in the country. They have reached the Sweet 16 three times in the last four seasons – one of just four programs to do so. Even more impressive, WVU has won nine NCAA tournament games since 1998. That’s nine more than Dayton. The Flyers are making just their fourth NCAA appearance since 2000 and the last three ended quickly with poor performances that led to first round exits. Clearly, the Mountaineers have postseason success and experience on their side. But this game means more to UD. It may be a stretch to call the contest a must-win, but another flameout will only serve to impede the tremendous progress Brian Gregory has made with the program. Like it or not, Xavier and Gonzaga now live among the entitled because they bust it up in March. Every time Xavier lost this season, their national ranking was hardly affected. When the Flyers lost, they were asked the climb the mountain again – from the bottom. Winning on national TV on the biggest stage counts more than a handful of quality wins in the regular season. Don’t believe me? Arizona is in the NCAA tournament because of reputation. Dayton needs to start producing one.

It is a most important game and most important opportunity to take a step forward since the Flyers rode the shoulders of Negele Knight and Anthony Corbitt to a two-point win over #5 seed Illinois in the 1990 NCAA Tournament. Since that time, Dayton hit rock bottom, resurrected itself, and found new success in a new conference.

Unfortunately, the Flyers have made a habit of showing poor form in each of their last three NCAA trips. Some might say they were among the worst performances of their respective seasons. In the biggest game and on the biggest stage and with the most hoops brownie points at stake, the Flyers were largely wallflowers. Something in each game was missing, whether it was offense, defense, or converting at the foul line. Purdue, Tulsa, and DePaul were quality opponents, but opportunities were there to win each one. For many fans that made the trip to see UD in person, they couldn’t recognize the team on the floor.

In 2000, Dayton earned a #11 seed and matched wits with #6 Purdue. Brian Cardinal was Purdue’s go-to player and he made timely baskets late in the game. The Flyers had the lead late in the game on a Brooks Hall steal and layup, but lost it on a Boilermaker trey from the right elbow. Dayton did not play especially well . The Flyers shot just .413% from the floor (26-63), made 7-12 at the line (.583%), and couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from three point range (2-17 for .118%). On the other side of the ball, Purdue nailed 10-23 from behind the arc (.435%). You won’t win many NCAA games shooting the rock like this or allowing an opponent to enjoy open range from long distance. The game should not have been as close as it was – a testament to the resolve of Oliver Purnell’s first NCAA team.

Things got no better in 2003 when the Flyers won the A10 tournament title and automatic bid to the Big Dance. With a #4 seed, UD matched up against #13 Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane were late bloomers and probably under-seeded. I sat six rows up at Spokane Arena and by the second TV timeout, the game was just about over. Dayton got behind by 18pts until a Ramod Marshall trey closed the deficit to 13 at the half. The Flyers tied it up with five minutes left, but a goaltending call on Sean Finn negated a basket that followed a Tulsa three-point play to re-take the lead. That was Dayton’s last comeback attempt. Tulsa faced zero impedance from the Flyer defense all night, shooting a sizzling 33-57 (.579%) from the floor and 8-12 from long range. Meanwhile, the Flyers managed a tepid .424% from the floor and just 9-28 (.321%) from 3-PT range. Other than a gutsy comeback late in the second half, the game was a wasted flight to the West coast. The offense sputtered and the defense was so bad that Gonzaga fans sitting near the UD fan section wondered how the selection committee handed us a #4 seed.

Dayton hit their NCAA low water mark in 2004 with the NCAA 1st round game against #7 seed DePaul at HSBC Arena in Buffalo. In what basketball aficionados call “the game that set basketball back 20 years”, the Blue Demons and Flyers battled through 40 agonizing minutes and a pair of overtimes until one team put the other out of its misery. Dayton did hardly anything right and DePaul looked no better. The stats don’t lie. The Flyers built an outhouse with 27-79 (.342%) shooting, including a staggering 3-20 (.150%) from long distance. Free throws were as painful, nailing just 12-23 (.522%) in a game where just a couple extra makes from the charity stripe would have ended the game in regulation and moved UD into the second round against #2 UConn. Just as frustrating, Dayton had the last shot to win in regulation and the first overtime. Marshall’s trey missed the mark and an in-bounds lob to Frank Iguodala with 2 seconds left failed to cash in. The Blue Demons were just as inept. One guy missed all 10 free throws while Drake Diener made all 10. In truth, neither team deserved to advance.

The three NCAA boxscores combined, UD shot a collective 14-65 (.215%) from three-point range and 25-44 (.568%) from the free throw line.

Now that I have you in the mood to slash both wrists, let’s not forget that this year’s team has the chance to end the cycle. The 2008-09 Flyers are not responsible for the last three NCAA performances, but they are expected to stop the bleeding. All it takes are 40 solid minutes on both sides of the ball. This year’s team plays hard enough to make it happen, but UD must also execute. Dayton must do the big things and the small things. They must defend without fouling. Most important, Dayton must make shots.

The outcome may teeter on the team that makes things count at the charity stripe. Dayton is just .565% from the FT line since the absence of Rob Lowery. That percentage would place UD as the worst free throw shooting team in the country had we started the season in the same form. If UD continues to toss bricks from 15 feet when the clock is stopped, it’s unlikely the Flyers will advance. Free throw woes continue to place unnecessary pressure on our offense and defense. This team is too good at times on defense to see that hard work evaporate at the foul stripe.

Can Brian Gregory and the Flyers get it done? It will take one of our best efforts of the 2008-09 season. We must show proficiency in all three phases. We’ve been waiting to take the next step in the maturation of the basketball program, but it can only happen if we start winning in the NCAA tournament. With all but one player returning next year, UD is in the unique position to stir up some buzz around the future of the program with a first round victory this week. As at-large bids for non-BCS conferences continue to dwindle (a record-low four this year), programs like Dayton can’t afford to receive bids and not capitalize; they are golden opportunities to make up ground at light speed on the basketball game board. This year as much as any other, Dayton, Xavier, BYU, and Butler are playing for every non-BCS school that felt they deserved a chance instead of a middle finger. It’s becoming harder and harder for schools like UD to make the Big Dance. Performing well in the NCAAs matters more to us than it does to a power conference team because it buys us collateral in the basketball world. NIT bids simply do not earn such provenance. We have come to the proverbial fork in the road for the fourth time this decade.

Flyer fans want to be like Xavier, Temple, UMass, Rhode Island, George Washington, St. Joseph’s, Charlotte, St. Louis, Richmond, Hampton, Coppin State, Weber State, Butler, Kent State, Valparaiso, Western Kentucky, Davidson, George Mason, Princeton, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Siena, San Diego, Winthrop, Southern Illinois, VCU, Nevada, Bucknell, Bradley, Northwestern State, Montana, Wichita State, UAB, Pacific, Vermont, Manhattan, Tulsa, Central Michigan, Wyoming, UNC-Wilmington, Fresno State, Indiana State, Utah State, Georgia State, Pepperdine, Missouri State, Miami (OH), New Mexico, Creighton, Detroit, Illinois State, Western Michigan, UT-Chattanooga, Charleston, Eastern Michigan, Drexel, Santa Clara, Old Dominion, Tulane, Southern, BYU, New Mexico State, UTEP, East Tennessee State, and Louisiana-Lafayette. What do all of these non-BCS programs have in common? They have scored victories in the NCAA tournament since 1990. A win against West Virginia changes the landscape of this program and where Gregory intends to take it. A lot of sportscasters and bracketologists expect Dayton to be one and done. The Flyers need to give each of them something else to write about.