There is nothing that I enjoy less than having to re-write an article because I made an assumption about my Flyers. I went out on a limb in the middle of the week and assumed that our boys in red would struggle but win against Fordham. This win would put us at 13-2 and possibly in the Top 25. I was going to take that opportunity to pat myself on the back and say how brilliant I was. You see, in my preseason optimistic predictions, we were going to be 13-2 and just breaking into the Top 25 for the first time. Well, I can no longer appear brilliant. I would say that it was a conspiracy, but Oliver Stone would probably not be interested in the movie rights.

Is this the end of the world? Certainly not! Is it something to be concerned about? You betcha! The real sad thing is that this should not come as a huge surprise. We have always been a different team on the road than at home. This is not completely unusual for any sports team, but we take it to an extreme. In 1969-70, the Flyers had a outstanding road record of 7-2. If you do the math it will tell you that it has been 30 years since we have had a winning road record. This is not just something that is happening to this team. The oldest current Flyer wouldn’t be born for eight years when we were that good on the road. We have had some good teams during that period of time. I think it comes down to attitude — an attitude that we need to acquire.

It’s time to get back to my brilliant predictions. It has always been my belief that if you predict enough things, you are bound to get some of them right. The trick is to just mention the ones you’ve gotten right to your friends. What I will do over the next few paragraphs is to discuss what the rest of the optimistic side thought and if it is really possible to get there. Over the last half of the season, I predicted that we would go 10-3. This includes losses at UMass, at GW and at home against Temple. The most difficult wins the rest of the way would be at Xavier, at Virginia Tech and at home against St. Bonaventure. If I were to revise my thinking today, I would probably switch the X and VT wins to losses and the GW loss to a win. That would make us go 9-4 and still finish at 21-7. Again, this is highly optimistic and a number of things need to fall in place to make that happen.

We have seen a significant improvement in the play of David Morris this season. The improvement has been so great that the coaching staff can now concentrate on recruiting a HS point guard instead of a JC player. He gives us a scoring threat from the outside that Young cannot. He has learned to go to the hoop more judiciously than in the past and his assist-to-turnover ratio is continually improving. He creates a good deal of movement in the offense and actually gives us a full 30 seconds in the front court to get the offense to work unlike Young, who tends to walk the ball up the court if there is no pressure. We need Day-Day to continue to score 10 or more points a game. We would not have beaten X and New Mexico without his outside shooting.

Before the Fordham game, Young began to feel more comfortable in the shooting guard position. Although he is not well suited for that role, he has been forced to assume that responsibility. Morris has been getting about 28-30mpg at the point. As a result, Young is probably playing more time at 2 guard than the point and getting better at it. He has done a steady job at the point and has also reduced his turnovers.

Stanley continues to be a streaky shooter. He rarely has a good half and a bad half. If he is off in one half, it will probably continue in the next. If he is shooting well in the first half, it will probably be the same after intermission. The big change in Tony this year is that he has not let his shooting affect the rest of his game. Although his overall game tends to rise and fall with his stroke, there is much less variation. He still hustles on offense after lose balls and gives it his all on defense.

To get to 21 wins, we will need more Kentucky type games from him and less Xavier and Fordham games.

Holland gives us a very different look when he is on. I’m not sure who wore his uniform for the first 9 or 10 games, but he has really come on since then. He is the only true shot blocker that we have and can give us the offensive board work that we need. With the starting line-up the optimistic prediction suggested we have five scoring options. It would be nice to see four of them on the court at all times. Holland will be the player that can take us the farthest with his improved play.

Green has come back to earth after an encouraging start. He is still a freshman and is more likely to show that than Perryman characteristics. We need him for spot minutes. I feel a lot more confident with him in the game than Fitz or Cooper. Yes, it makes us smaller, but we can afford it for eight minutes a game against most teams.

Mark Ashman has been a disappointment thus far. I truly expected him to average at least 17 points and 8 rebounds per game. I realize that he has been bothered by the hamstring, but it is time to step forward and move his game to the next level. There has been a real improvement over the last several games with respect to his attitude. Mark is one of the nicest guys in the world. He is very quiet and considerate and wouldn’t hurt a mouse. If there has been a hole in his game, it has more to do with attitude than physical abilities. He has begun to show the attitude that “I’m better than they are and I’m going to show them.” His rebounding lately has been excellent. He can be counted on for close to 10 caroms a game. This is a far cry from the five that we had become accustomed to. If he can get his shooting percentage back to 50% instead of the low 40’s that we are currently seeing, we can get in the Top 25 and stay there.

The most valuable player on this team at the end of the year is going to be Brooks Hall. Without a doubt, he is the smartest player I have seen come to UD in years. He plays with the knowledge of a senior. He has the ability to have triple doubles, something we have never seen. He knows what to do with the basketball at all times. He rarely makes freshman mistakes and can be counted on to give it his all on both ends of the court. He will need to pick up his scoring and the only way he can do that is to take shots. He rarely goes to the hole and with his ability to shoot free throws he will need to exploit this alternative.

When Cain went down, I truly believed that we would become a .500 team for the rest of the year. They have proven me wrong in that aspect, but we will need to win on the road as the season winds down. We have played two games on the road since he started wearing street clothes.

We traveled to Cleveland State and Fordham and looked more like last year’s team than this year’s. He is sorely missed and will probably keep us from getting to the Sweet Sixteen come NCAA time. If a miracle occurs and he can come back this year at full strength, it will be a blessing. We have built the confidence to win without him, having him back would move us up a level. I’m going to lump Fitz and Cooper together because when they are in the game together, I get a large lump in my throat. This is probably my biggest complaint with OP’s coaching. I know that I am not as seasoned as Oliver and the rest of the staff, but I know enough to say that you cannot put the two of them in the game at the same time. They do not offer enough defensively to cripple the offense as much as they do. Before Fordham, they had played exactly 200 minutes. If you divide their output into what one person would do over 40 minutes, this is what you get: Thirty-seven percent shooting from the field, 36% from the free throw line, 4.8 points/game, 5.4 rebounds/game, one assist, one block and two turnovers. For 40 minutes at a power position, these numbers are frightening. Even if they are used for five minutes each per game, it is too much. I know that this might make guys a little more tired at the end, but how about this for minute distribution:

Morris 30
Stanley 34
Hall 32
Ashman 34
Holland 32
Green 14
Young 24

I know this is only seven guys, but without foul trouble messing this up, it could work. This would be used in more difficult games, with Fitz, Cooper, and Bamigbola (should he return) only being used in lesser games and in emergency situations. Other teams can do this, why can’t we? The key to the rest of the season can be summed up in one word — desire. We saw the desire in their eyes against Xavier. We saw the desire in their eyes against Kentucky. Any team that can beat Xavier, Kentucky, and New Mexico on the road should not lose to the Cleveland States of the world. It doesn’t matter if the game is played here, there, or on the moon, it all comes down to desire. We had it for the wins; we couldn’t find it in the losses. There are going to be nights when they will not be able to throw the ball in the ocean, but if the desire to win is there they can still pull out a “W”. As OP has said time and time again, it all comes down to rebounding and defense — two specifics built on desire.

Can we win 21 or 22 games in the regular season? Possibly. Will it be easy? No. Will it be fun? Yes.