BEVERLY HILLS (MI) — Mark Twain once famously remarked that there are three kinds of lies:
Lies
****ed lies
Statistics
The biggest star in the college hoops stat-head firmament is Ken Pomeroy, proprietor of www.kenpom.com, considered by many to be Xanadu for CBB numbers freaks.
When you click on Dayton (currently ranked a mighty #104 as this is written) you get Pomeroy’s prediction for the entirety of the 2010-2011 Flyer campaign:
http://www.kenpom.com/team.php?team=Dayton
The lowlights:
— 17-14 overall
— 12-7 at home
— 5-7 on the road
— 9-6 in OOC games
— 8-8 in A-10 play
— A five game losing streak, followed closely by another short-end skein of six in a row
What a total crock of not-good that is right there, Ken.
It’s been said that the only way to fight fire is with fire, so the solitary means available to retort statistics is with more of the same. Regular readers of this space will never accuse me of being a stat freak, preferring to leave them to guys like frequent MB poster Figgie, who seems right at home with numbers. Nevertheless, here goes, thanks to the UD Media Guide:
— The last time UD lost 14 games in a season was the semi-forgettable 2005-2006 slate; BG’s third at the helm when the team finished 14-17
— You have to go back to OP’s first year of 1994-1995 to find a season where UD lost 7 games at home
— 2005-2006 was also the last time the Flyers dropped 6 OOC tilts in one season
— One must dig all the way back in the archives to 2009-2010 to find a season where UD was .500 in A-10 play
— That 2005-2006 season was also the last time the Flyers dropped 6 games consecutively (actually 7)
— Here’s the real kicker for me, tho:
You have to revisit the catacomb of the “dark years” of JOB and the abysmal 4-26 season in 1992-1993 to find a UD team that had two separate losing streaks, one composed of at least 5 and the other of at least 6 games in the same campaign.
So, basically what Mr. Pomeroy is predicting for BG’s Boys is that a perfect sh*t-storm of O’Brien-esque proportions will befall this year’s squad.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
Why not?
Two guys: CJ and CW
Chris Johnson gets it, and BG is challenging him to do more, according to this article from the DDN:
Chris Wright simply will not allow this to happen, algorithms be ****ed. He didn’t come back for his senior season to go 17-14. If the Western Carolina game showed us anything it is that CW can will this team to victory all by himself.
The beauty of Pomeroy’s little system (for him, at least) is that he gets to adjust his guesstimates game-by-game as the season goes on so in essence he’s never wrong.
You gotta believe that Kenny boy will be doing more than his fair share of adjustin’ this year when it comes to the Flyers.
That’s it “From the Swamp.”
You can email me at: [email protected]
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