CHANDLER (AZ) — Before the season started I threw out some predictions about how the Flyers would do. I truly wasn’t sold on them as an NCAA contender and I’m still not convinced. There were some things I was spot on and there were other things that I couldn’t have been more wrong.

London Warren: “He is often out of control and tends to dribble the ball too high. If he plays 30 minutes per game, it will be a disastrous season for the Flyer Faithful. Great kid, just not a great point guard.”

Luckily this is one area that I have been wrong. He still is a mystery with regard to his shooting skills, but he has learned to take care of the basketball and has improved his asset to turnover ratio from 0.84/1 to 1:95/1. A marvelous improvement, but still at the bottom of where you want your point guard to be. Free throws are up to 60% but about 20% below where it needs to be. All too obvious when an opposing team plays hack-a-shaq with your point guard. Currently averaging 20 minutes per game.

Rob Lowery: “Yet, what you see is a player that can shoot the ball and distribute it in an upscale offense that we will hopefully see more of this year. This doesn’t mean that Warren can’t be a factor, I just see him in a supportive role verses leadership.”

Certainly a miss here. Lowery played brilliantly against Marquette, but other than that he hasn’t shot very well from anywhere on the court and his asset to turnover ratio is just 1.6/1. We knew his numbers would be down, but his free throw shooting has even been affected. I guess I didn’t know that they have bigger rims in junior college.

Thomas: I thought so little of him, he didn’t even get a mention.

Another miss on my part. He has been a pleasant surprise and has shown as much improvement as anyone on the team despite poor shooting.

Paul Williams: “The rest of the new players will also make an impact with Paul Williams being at the top of the list. Williams is a shooter but has an all-around game that will allow him to slide closer to the basket if needed. With Williams and Lowery in the line-up, there will be the ability to shoot from the outside that we haven’t seen in a while.”

Too early to say, but he has certainly been a disappointment thus far. Certainly the injury has been a factor, but his poor shooting has led to more bench time than expected. ZThe misses just keep adding up.

Chris Johnson: “The one player that seems to be forgotten in the group of five newcomers is Chris Johnson a 6’5” forward from Columbus. Don’t read too much into that, but he will gain more playing time than most think and he will bring the ability to rebound and score from the small forward spot. Very athletic, he has been forgotten by many because of Williams. He will be the surprise contributor this season.”

I finally got one right. This kid has shown that he is the real deal. One has to wonder if he will go back to the bench if Little is 100% on Saturday. Certainly a 20 point, 12 rebound performance in his lone start is worth consideration for further playing time.

Benson/Fabrizius: “I would not expect a great deal from either Benson or Fabrizius. I would be surprised to see either of them officially redshirted before the season starts as Gregory needs to win now, not in 4 years.”

Not too far off here. Benson probably would have played if he wasn’t injured and Fabrizius has not even shown the shooting touch that his is know for. Currently averaging just 10 minutes per game and 31% shooting. It might help if he took a 21’ three point shot and not the 24’ ones he seems to like.

Chris Wright: “If Chris Wright can stay healthy all season and continues to improve on all areas of his game like he did the previous year, the Flyers will be very good.”

This one is pretty much a given, but I am disappointed in his overall production. Very similar to last year, but we expected more. His shooting percentage from the field is down over 10% and from the free throw line, 18%. He really needs to step up and become more of a factor for a team that struggles to score.

Marcus Johnson: “Johnson is one of those players that you just know is going to explode, you are just not sure when. If you look at his stats you have to be impressed with his versatility. He shot 48% from the field, 39% from the three point line and 76% on free throws. His biggest problem was that he only took about seven shots per game. He needs to be featured now that Roberts is gone. He needs to use his ability to get to the rim better, not just from the wing. Probably one of the top five all time athletes at UD, Gregory needs to feature him more.”

Another disappointment. He has been consistently inconsistent. His shooting is down and his rebounding has fallen by 40%. He, too, needs to step up for this team to succeed.

Huelsman/Searcy: “Huelsman showed a little improvement last year but nothing to get too excited about. Gregory loves the kid, but he needs to get more aggressive. The fact that he screens out his man to keep him from getting the rebound does not insure that UD gets the ball. Just go get the ball. Enough of being a “team player” who makes everyone else look better. Go get the ball. Searcy will grab some minutes, but do not expect a scoring machine. If he can swat a few balls now and then, he will be an asset.”

Overall I was expecting more from these two. Huelsman has been scoring 40% less than last year, primarily because he can’t make a layup. His defense has been good, but he can play better than this. Searcy has shown some improvement in rebounding and shooting, but sometimes his defense leaves much to be desired. His improvement from freshman to sophomore is less than typical. He averages just one shot per six minutes of playing time.

Little: “It is time for Charles Little to step up. It is truly put up or shut up time for the former A-10 Sixth Man of the Year. Little took a huge step backward last year. Unless there is a complete turn around in desire, I expect more of the same this year. He will not start and I doubt he will be a factor. As the only senior on the team, he needs to decide if he wants to go out in a blaze of glory or watching the kids from the bench”.

I really didn’t expect much from Little this year. He is pretty much the same player statistically that we saw last year which was down from his sophomore season. His points and shooting percentage are down and his turnovers are up. Aside from being a better free throw shooter, he hasn’t really stepped up as much as he needs to.

Mickey Perry: Much like Thomas, I did not think enough of his contributions to give him a mention. He has had a couple of good games, but overall he has been mediocre. He is just shooting 43% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc. For a team that needs a “shooter” desperately, he has not come through as advertised.

Postseason Prediction: “As they said in “2010”, “something wonderful” will have to happen for this team to make it to the NCAA tournament. One of the newcomers will have to catch fire above expectations. In my book, you never expect a freshman/newcomer to get as many at 10 points per game. If one of them can exceed that or Lowery becomes an assist machine, then they may be able to nose their way into the NCAA. However, my thinking is NIT this year and NCAA in 2010.”

If, at the beginning of the season, you told me that this team would shoot .416 from the field and .299 from the three point line, I would have guessed a 6-4 start. There are two reasons that is not the case: 1) a relatively easy schedule and 2) tenacious defense. This is a team that has won the close games by playing excellent defensive basketball. The good thing is that the ability to play defense is generally consistent. However, you cannot expect to win all of the close ones as they have. I believe that this 9-1 start is a mirage.

They could be 14-1 at the start of league play, but as we all know that won’t be good enough to get them in. They will have to start shooting the ball better both at home and on the road. The sixth man at UD Arena will help them win the close ones at home, but you can’t take those 13,000 people in a suitcase and have them on your side when on the road. As easy as it is to get excited about the Top 25 and only one loss, I will not fall prey to that again. Until I see good shooting three games is a row, this is an NIT team.