Recently I took a look at some of my earlier “Observations from Row J” and I found that I made a habit of looking at this season from the dark side. Before the season even started, I just wasn’t as excited as I’d normally been. I really felt that this just might be another season like most we have seen in the recent past. That is, not bad but just not good enough to be one of the top 64.

I just couldn’t shake the vision of Charlie Brown trying to kick that football just as Lucy pulls it away. The last couple of years have been very disappointing for me in that at the beginning of the season I felt that we would be dancing, only to find myself in line to buy NIT tickets when March rolled around. With that in mind, I started to get a little excited after the UC win and wrote the following:

One and out is not good enough for this team. Anything short of a Sweet 16 finish is simply unacceptable. This is a team that has a good deal of experienced talent and one that should give Xavier a run for the best in the A-10. If it doesn’t, it is time for Oliver Purnell to take a look in the mirror and start asking some very tough questions.

It is roughly two months since that time and I’m still a little gun shy about trying to kick that football. I still remember what happen to the 1999-2000 team that also started off the season at 16-3 before traveling to Cincinnati to play Xavier. It was another gut wrenching loss in Cincinnati by one point and the slide began. From that point on, they lost seven times including the heartbreaking loss to Purdue in the NCAA Tournament while winning only five games during that time.

That too, was a year that we hovered around the Top 25 but just couldn’t get in. Had we won at Xavier the entire season might have finished very differently and the Top 25 would have been ours. It is not a do-or-die situation but winning at Xavier would take away all doubts about just how good this team really is. The players say they believe in themselves but an XU win would only make their belief even deeper.

Scares like UD had at Duquesne should make them a better team. When you are in the midst of a winning streak, you tend to ooze with confidence. That, in itself, is a good thing. It’s tough to win a game when you know you can’t. At the same time, too much confidence can turn a winner into a loser. The lads are too smart and Oliver too savvy to not use this game as a learning experience.

This team has a number of things going for it right now, not the least of which is the way that they understand their rolls and work to execute the game plan. Yet, this inability to hold a lead continues to put even more gray hair on their leader’s head. Having 10-point swings in a game is commonplace. It is not unusual for any team to go through a four-minute streak with little or no scoring. But this team does it on an every-game basis. Blowing a 14-point lead in the second half to a team that is on a six-game losing streak is unacceptable.

For this team to beat Xavier, they cannot afford to give away a lead of any kind. For this team to beat Xavier on the road, all cylinders will have to be hitting in unison. We have enough offensive weapons to keep up with Xavier, no matter where the game is being played. Not having a super star in the mold of David West can certainly have its drawbacks. But having five guys out on the floor that can score and at least play acceptable defense is certainly a plus.

The Flyers enter their second critical period of the season. Earlier this year, the Old Dominion-Villanova-Duke-Marquette streak could have broken the boys. After the two road losses to sub-par Miami and St. Louis, even Old Dominion was a critical hurdle. By winning three of those four games they set the tone for the following eight games.

Despite the fact that they have a glistening 16-3 record, the next eight games will make or break this season. With only one gimme (Fordham) and one fairly easy home game (George Washington) the other six games will determine if we can dance this year. A three and three split in those six will almost certainly get us to where we need to go, but that will not be easy.

Xavier at Xavier — Currently in the Top-20 and not accustomed to looking up in the standings ,they will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. Anyone picking UD to win there should have their head examined.

St. Joseph’s at Dayton — No one can take a team that is currently 16-3 for granted. Not too highly thought of before the season, this is a team that will scare anybody when it comes to tournament time. Jameer Nelson is averaging 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.0 assists — the best point guard in the league. Delonte West is averaging a nearly identical 17.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. Difficult game, but Dayton’s overall strength is St. Joe’s weakness. West and Nelson can kill you, but they don’t have much help. Dayton in a close one.

Richmond at Richmond — A good team, especially at home, but one that Dayton can handle if they play as well as they can. Richmond will be 9-2 in the league when they play us with second place within their grasp. I fear a Dayton loss.

Xavier at Dayton — In a must win situation for Dayton, I believe the Flyers will come out on fire and blasting their way through walls. Dayton by five.

Dayton at Rhode Island — At the beginning of the season everyone had to have a “W” next to this game on the schedule. Not so easy to pick a winner now. They are a fairly young team but led by two seniors and a sophomore. Their schedule is dotted with questionable losses, yet they beat St. Joe’s at home. Dayton wins by 10 if they play well. If they play defense like they did against Duquesne, chalk it up as a loss. Dayton by 6.

Dayton at St. Bonaventure — Always tough at home, but they have already lost four times there. They have beaten Kent State, Michigan, and Rhode Island. This is a team that is going nowhere at the end of the season. On Senior Day, look for them to give the Flyers a surprise end-of-the-regular-season loss.

If the above happens, we are probably in. One more win and we are a lock. One more loss and it will probably come down to how we do in the tournament. Let’s hope that the boys can pull the upset in Cincinnati and make life a lot easier these last few weeks. Let’s not see a reincarnation of the late season slump that the 1999-2000 team suffered through.

I have to give the entire team and coaching staff a hearty slap on the back for what they have accomplished thus far this season. They have won every close game that has been played. You can talk all you want about talent, but I’d rather have a team that wins when it is given an opportunity. They’ve worked hard. Now it is time to show that to the rest of the world.