The question that seems to be on everyone’s mind seems to be, “How good are we going to be next year?” The finest season any University of Dayton basketball fan has experienced in three decades has just come to a conclusion and all we can think about is next year. There was little wringing of hands after a loss that few thought would happen. The typical UD fan worried about Tulsa, but knew in the end that the Flyers would, somehow, manage to pull out another victory. Needless to say, things didn’t quite work out that way, but that can’t keep the Flyer Fanatic from thinking about buying that NCAA ticket for next year’s first round game.

One and out is not good enough for this team. Anything short of a Sweet 16 finish is simply unacceptable. ..This is a team that has a good deal of experienced talent and one that should give Xavier a run for the best in the A-10. If it doesn’t, it is time for Oliver Purnell to take a look in the mirror and start asking some very tough questions.

I wrote those immortal words on December 3, 2002. Was I being prophetic, or just lucky? Was I being too harsh or just objective? The problem is that we accomplished one but not the other. The question remains, “If you could only meet one of those two objectives, which would you want?”

Unquestionably, the Flyers were one of the top two teams in the A-10 this year. The problem with the NCAA Tournament is that you can play 10 minutes of bad basketball and have to pack your bags. For the long-term success of the program, being one of the best in the A-10 is far more important that winning two games in the Tournament. Yet, in the short term, being a four seed and getting bounced two hours after you start the Tournament does not help much on the recruiting trail.

One thing that has to please the Flyer community is the fact that they spent the last month of the regular season in the top 25 and will probably begin next season somewhere between 20 and 25. The top 25 is where every coach and every fan wants to be. It is there that you get airtime and airtime is what makes kids want to suit up in your school’s colors. The key to next season and beyond is if they can stay in that rarefied air for more than a week or two.

Twenty-five and six is an extremely pretty set of numbers. I’m not too concerned with the number of wins. It’s the losses that stir my inner most feelings. The thought that UD could actually complete a season with 6 losses astounds me. We need to take a look at the losses to understand just how successful the season was.

Dayton finished the season with a 13-1 record in games decided by less than eight points. On the surface, this would appear to be a team that was extremely lucky or just very mature and good in the clutch. Bill James, who is very well known for his Baseball Abstract, is a firm believer in the principle that this is probably just a one-year occurrence. In his studies, he found that baseball teams that won an extremely high percentage of one run games tended to fall off significantly the following year. One would have to wonder if this will be the case with UD next year.

It goes without saying that 13-1 is highly unlikely and there could be a significant drop-off there. However, if you look closely at the above chart, there were at least four losses that could have fallen in that range but didn’t because for one reason or another UD fell apart and lost by more than seven.

There are a number of issues that must be taken into account when trying to even discuss what could happen next year: 1) Injuries, 2) Schedule, 3) Recruits, 4) Individual Growth.

Injuries

This was an area that, for the most part, did not rear its ugly head in 2002-2003. Certainly, Sean Finn was not his normal self during a 10 game stretch after he broke his hand, but he was able to play at something above 50% of his normal capabilities. The rest of the team was able to escape major problems. There were the normal bumps and bruises, but no showstoppers. There wasn’t one game that the entire squad wasn’t available. Was this just a fluke or are the players better conditioned than in the past? UD is not Duke or Kentucky. A loss of any starter for an extended period could have a devastating effect on the season.

Schedule

Although the schedule for next year has not yet been published, it should be as difficult as this year’s was. There will probably be trips to Marquette and Cincinnati in addition to the Maui Tournament. My guess is that we will have some big name school in for December 3, but there is no guarantee at this point.

The A-10 schedule should be more difficult than this year’s due to the maturation of several young players that played prominent roles this season. Yes, David West will be gone, but Xavier will still be a load. We will have to face St. Joe’s on the road, but Fordham and UMass on the road should not be difficult.

Once again having the A-10 Tournament in Dayton will be an advantage. Will it be the advantage that everyone says it is? That is the $64,000 question. This year, Dayton beat three teams that it had already beaten, two of which were on the road. Next year’s tournament may not have the number one seed fall by the wayside before the championship game.

Recruits

At this point in time, there are four players scheduled to make their debut for the Flyers next year.

James Cripe will benefit from the fact that he has been able to bang bodies with Finn, Green, and Waleskowski for a full year. He will have been able to work with the strength and conditioning people and the coaching staff for that same period. If he can have anything near the contribution that Keith had as a freshman, we will all be singing his praises.

Monty Scott is the true wildcard. He will have matured since his days in high school but at the same time he will have gone a year without constant top-notch competition. He should be able to get some of the rust out this summer, but there is no question that his development will have been stunted by his year off. On the positive side, Scott may be the best recruit since Brooks Hall. He has the moves, the ability to rebound and the capability to score from both inside and out. The real question will be how well he defends and stays out of foul trouble.

Chris Spears could be Mr. Offense. He has the ability to light it up from outside and I have heard he is lightening quick. If he is on from the start he could get a lot of playing time at the two.

Jeff Bro Grebe at the time of this writing may or may not be part of the mix. The fact that he hasn’t played in a year is certainly a detriment, even if he is eligible. This is a wait-and-see situation.

Individual Growth

If there is anything that will take this team far, it will be the continued improvement of the current pieces. Sean Finn is the real key here. Because of injury and lack of playing time as a freshman, he really has less than two years under his belt. The difference in the player that we saw at the end of last season and the one a year later was significant. His continued growth could take this team far. What you see is what you get with Waleskowski and Marshall. They are as steady as they come. Their individual improvements last year were not mind boggling, yet significant. Marshall will be ready at the beginning of the season to run the point. He could be looking at a 3 or 4 to 1 ratio in assists/turnovers next year. Keith will play only the four next year. That, in itself, should add a point or two to his average. We need him to continue to improve in rebounding. Ten rebounds per game is not out of the question.

What to Expect

Although the three starting seniors are important, it is the rest of the returning group that could have the most impact. With Brooks Hall, D. J. Stelly and Nate Green graduating, there are huge holes to fill both in the starting lineup and coming off the bench. None of the players that will be returning have shown enough to believe that they can fill those holes. They will need to contribute for this team to find its way to the NCAA Tournament.

Depth could very well be the biggest problem that Oliver Purnell must face next season. It was easy this year, because he could use seven players and not have to really worry about anything else. They were as interchangeable as the 25 men on the Bachelorette. That will not be the case next year unless these guys get better.

There are way too many question marks with the above alignment. There are really only five players (including Williams) that Purnell really has a good idea of what the upside really is. The rest is a crap shoot. Look for a JC transfer or two to help out with the immediate needs.

With all of these things in mind, do not be surprised to see eight defeats attached to their record when it comes time to start the big dance. However, eight losses will not keep UD out as it might have in the past. They might even be able to hang onto the Top-25 if they are to the right people and spread out during the year. This is a good team, but just how good is still up in the air.